Staff Writer

Senators vs. Maple Leafs best bets Game 3: Take the over, back defenceman Sanderson and Rielly

The Toronto Maple Leafs can put a stranglehold on the Battle of Ontario as the series shifts to Ottawa.

The pregame narrative: Expect the Senators to throw everything at the wall on Thursday night while facing the prospect of going down 3-0. My best bet for Game 3 is the over, and I’m also looking for Morgan Rielly and Jake Sanderson to be involved offensively.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets for Game 3 of the opening round.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets

Best bet: Over 5.5 goals (-118)

Ottawa has found itself down early in both games.

A quick lead for Toronto might seem nice for this over, but Craig Berube’s side can clog things up and turn the game into a slog when playing from ahead.

We just saw that in Game 2, when the Maple Leafs put things in neutral after going up 2-0 through eight minutes en route to a 3-2 overtime win.

I’m expecting Ottawa to score first, and for Toronto to return in kind. Or at least for the Senators to respond immediately to a Maple Leafs goal.

With Linus Ullmark struggling (.800 SV% through two games, career .876 playoff SV%), the Sens can’t afford to let the game come to them.

If Ottawa gets up early, this could turn into a legit barn-burner. And if the home team is forced to cheat chasing a lead, Toronto could really lay a beating on its rival.

The Maple Leafs scored the seventh-most goals per game during the regular season (3.26) and have a red-hot power play.

Key stat: Toronto went over a 5.5-goal total in 28 of 41 road games this year.

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Quick picks

Rielly to score 1+ points (+165): Rielly is coming off a dreadful regular season, but the longest-tenured Maple Leaf has a knack for showing up in the postseason.

He’s scored in both games so far and now has a point in 13 of his last 20 postseason games dating back to the 2022-23 season (17 total points).

In the last five postseasons, Rielly has the highest 5-on-5 points per 60 (1.83) of any defenceman with more than 20 games played.

This seems like a great value play to me.

Sanderson over 2.5 shots on goal (+125): I took this bet in Game 1 and it cashed. I’ll gladly go back to the well on Thursday, and here’s why:

Toronto had the fourth-worst 5-on-5 Corsi rate (shot attempt differential) in the NHL during the regular season, according to Natural Stat Trick.

The Maple Leafs have been out-shot (61-45) and out-chanced (148-95) through two games.

Plenty of these shot attempts are low-quality and coming from the outside or at the point. That’s exactly where Sanderson, Ottawa’s top-scoring defenceman, is firing from.

The 22-year-old led the team in ice time (24:26) and was second in shots (195) during the regular season. He’s played a team-high 54:30 through two games.

Sanderson has logged at least two shots in 12 straight games, clearing this line eight times.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 04/24/2025.

Warriors vs. Rockets SGP predictions Game 2: Bet on Golden State to cover, Curry to perform

The Golden State Warriors aim to keep the pressure on the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Golden State won the series opener behind some dogged defensive play. I’ll back the Dubs to at least cover a teased-up spread alongside prop bets on Steph Curry and Alperen Sengun in this +310 wager.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets play-in SGP predictions for April 23.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions

Parlay: Warriors +7.5 | Curry 20+ points | Sengun over 10.5 rebounds (+310)

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Warriors +7.5 (-240): Golden State is coming off an impressive win in a game which was never really close. The Dubs jumped out to a 13-point halftime lead and eventually stretched it to 21 before securing a comfy 95-85 victory.

Houston shot a horrendous 39.1% from the field, and while I expect it to improve, you can’t discount the ferocity of Golden State’s defence.

The Warriors had the league’s best defensive rating (109.0) since Jimmy Butler joined the lineup on Feb. 8, per NBA.com.

Golden State is 11-6 ATS as a road underdog this season and is 4-2 straight up against Houston in the last six meetings between these teams (with one loss coming by a point).

I feel safe tacking on an extra four points to the standard +3.5 spread.

NBA SGP legs

Curry 20+ points (-295): Nothing is “free” in sports betting, but this seems like a layup.

Curry is averaging 30.5 points in his last 14 playoff games dating back to the 2023 postseason.

In that span, he’s 14-0 against this line, and only finished with fewer than 27 points twice.

The future Hall-of-Famer had a typically efficient performance in Game 1, scoring 31 points on 12-of-19 shooting.

Houston is a great defensive team, and held Curry to three points in the last regular-season meeting between these teams.

But the chef likes to turn up the heat in the postseason, and I’ll gladly ride with Curry keeping a 15-game streak of clearing this milestone in the playoffs alive.

Sengun over 10.5 rebounds (+105): I rode with Sengun on this exact market in Game 1 and got burned when the big man finished with nine boards after logging seven through the game’s early goings.

But the logic still remains on why he’s a strong pick to rebound (literally, and figuratively):

Golden State has allowed the most rebounds per game to opposing centres over the last 30 days (17.56) and the third-most over the entire season (16.41).

6-foot-6 Draymond Green is playing centre, and 6-foot-7 Jimmy Butler is the tallest player in the Warriors’ starting lineup.

Sengun played Golden State two weeks before the postseason began and finished that game with 14 rebounds in 33 minutes. That was the third-straight game against the Warriors where he cleared this total.

I’ll go back to the well with him at plus money on Wednesday.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions made at 2:30 p.m. ET 04/22/2025.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions SGP Game 2: Back Marner and Tkachuk to produce at +300

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators meet for Game 2 of the Battle of Ontario on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto dominated the series opener, winning 6-2, and I’ll back the Leafs to at least cover a +1.5 puck line tonight. On top of that, take John Tavares and Brady Tkachuk to find the score sheet in this +300 wager.

Check out my Senators vs. Maple Leafs playoff SGP predictions for Game 2 on April 22.

BOOST: Leafs to win, Matthews & Nylander to score (+561, was +510). Bet now!

Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions

Parlay: Maple Leafs +1.5 | Tavares to record a point | Tkachuk to record a point (+310)

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Maple Leafs +1.5 (-500): I expect Toronto to win this game, but I’ll opt for a bit of safety by taking the home side on an alternate puck line.

The Leafs ran roughshod in Sunday’s series opener, jumping out to a 4-1 lead midway through the second period and never looking back.

Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Auston Matthews and Tavares combined for nine points in the victory. That’s the most from the “Core Four” in a playoff game since Game 2 against the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2023.

Ottawa is bound to turn in a better effort on Tuesday, but I struggle to look past Linus Ullmark, who has consistently struggled in the postseason.

Linus Ullmark: Career playoff stats

Record 3-7
GAA 3.82
Save % .877
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) April 21, 2025

Goaltending is the great equalizer in the playoffs, as Leafs fans know too well from years past, and it looks like Toronto has the definitive upper hand.

Anthony Stolarz turned away 31-of-33 shots on Sunday and has a 9-0-0 record across his last nine starts. In that span, he has a 1.44 GAA and .949 SV%.

I’ll ride with Stolarz until he gives me a reason not to.

NBA SGP legs

Tavares to record a point (-157): A lot has been made of Tavares’ future with the Maple Leafs this season, as the former captain will be an unrestricted free agent come July 1.

But that’s a long way away, and right now, Tavares is playing like a man possessed.

Coming off a great regular season (38 goals, 74 points), Tavares registered a goal, an assist and six shots in the series opener.

He has now found the stat sheet in 20 of 28 games since the 4 Nations Face-Off (31 total points in that span).

Tavares is an integral part of Toronto’s red-hot power play, and he rides shotgun with Nylander. I expect him to make noise against an undisciplined Sens group.

Tkachuk to record a point (-105): This leg is a bit narrative-driven because the numbers suggest Tkachuk goes pointless again on Tuesday:

Tkachuk had just 55 points in 72 games this season.

He is now pointless in five straight games dating back to March 25.

He has been held pointless in seven of his last nine games against the Maple Leafs.

So why am I backing him? Ottawa needs its captain to show up, and Tkachuk seems like the kind of player who will answer the bell.

His line with Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux was extremely productive at 5-on-5 in Game 1, out-chancing opponents 18-3. The problem was that they only played 9:42 together because Ottawa was constantly in the penalty box.

Travis Green will surely tell his team to tighten things up, which should lead to more opportunities for Tkachuk.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions made at 1:28 p.m. ET 04/22/2025.

Bucks vs. Pacers SGP predictions Game 2: Back Damian Lillard to score in his return at +310

The Milwaukee Bucks get a much-needed shot in the arm when Damian Lillard returns to take on the Indiana Pacers in Game 2.

The pregame narrative: Lillard hasn’t played since March 18, and Milwaukee got smoked without him in the series opener. Bet on the Bucks to cover an alternate spread and Lillard to score in this +310 SGP, which also features Indiana’s Pascal Siakam.

Check out my Bucks vs. Pacers play-in SGP predictions for April 22.

Bucks vs. Pacers predictions

Parlay: Bucks +8.5 | Lillard 20+ points | Siakam 6+ rebounds (+310)

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Bucks +8.5 (-220): Will Lillard’s presence be enough to turn the tide of this series in Milwaukee’s favour? It’s hard to say, but I’m banking on the Bucks at least keeping Game 2 close.

Milwaukee went 8-6 with Lillard following the all-star break, covering a +6.5 spread in 11 of those games.

That includes a pair of contests against the Pacers, one of which the Bucks won (126-119 at home) and one they narrowly lost (115-114 on the road).

Lillard’s defence is sub-par, and there’s no sugarcoating that. But the star point guard is a bona fide bucket-getter who has torched Indiana in the past.

The Pacers are a mediocre 14-16-2 ATS as home favourites this year, while the Bucks are 10-8-1 as road underdogs.

Milwaukee also covered this number in four straight games against Indiana prior to Game 1.

NBA SGP legs

Lillard 20+ points (+110): Back to Lillard, who was sidelined since March with a blood clot in his calf.

Bucks general manager Jon Horst said, “We’re thrilled for Dame … every step of (his) recovery has been at the direction of world-class medical professionals and their specific and strict protocols that have allowed for Dame’s safe and healthy return to play.”

That’s encouraging to hear, and leads me to believe he’ll be near 100% for the contest.

Lillard played in four games against the Pacers in last year’s postseason, and he blew past this line each time.

Game 1: 35 points, 11-of-24 shooting
Game 2: 34 points, 10-of-21 shooting
Game 3: 28 points, 6-of-20 shooting
Game 6: 28 points, 7-of-16 shooting

It might take a few shots for Lillard to shake the rust off, but this milestone will be attainable if he has anywhere near the type of shot volume from the 2023-24 postseason.

Siakam 6+ rebounds (-250): Siakam had himself a night on Sunday, scoring 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting in the win.

But I want to tap into his abilities as a rebounder for Tuesday’s matchup.

The former Toronto Raptor is averaging 8.1 rebounds in his last 10 games against the Bucks.

7+ rebounds nine times
8+ rebounds five times

Myles Turner, Indiana’s centre, is averaging just 6.0 rebounds per game since the beginning of April. There’s no reason to believe Siakam’s production on the glass will taper off.

Bucks vs. Pacers predictions made at 12:05 p.m. ET 04/22/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Astros prop picks April 21: Bet on Gausman to work deep

The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game series against the Houston Astros on Monday.

The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Blue Jays, and he’s been stellar so far. I expect the righty to work deep into the ballgame.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Astros for April 21.

Blue Jays picks vs. Astros

Best Bet: Gausman over 18.5 outs (+115)

Gausman is off to a hot start after a disappointing 2024 season.

The righty has a 2.49 ERA to pair with a league-best 0.71 WHIP through four outings. His 3.3% walk rate ranks in the 91st percentile, according to Baseball Savant, and helps keep the pitch count low.

That’s exactly what I’m looking for.

Gausman has only cleared this line once — throwing 8.0 innings of one-run ball against the Boston Red Sox on April 9 — but landed on exactly 6.0 IP (18 outs) twice.

Houston is a very mediocre 10-11 and has particularly struggled to hit right-handed pitching, making this a prime matchup.

27th in slugging percentage (.330)
25th in wRC+ (87)
24th in batting average (.226)
21st in K rate (23.1%)

Key stat: Gausman has fantastic numbers against the Astros, holding their current lineup to a .177 batting average with a 48.2% K rate in 85 plate appearances.

Blue Jays vs. Astros picks made at 12:23 p.m. ET on 04/21/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Astros prop picks April 21: Bet on Gausman to work deep, Springer to stay hot

I’m backing a pair of Toronto Blue Jays to perform as they open a three-game series against the Houston Astros on Monday.

The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Blue Jays, and he’s been stellar so far. I expect the righty to work deep into the ballgame and am also backing George Springer to stay hot at the plate.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Astros for April 21.

Blue Jays picks vs. Astros

Best Bet: Gausman over 18.5 outs (+118)

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Gausman is off to a hot start after a disappointing 2024 season.

The righty has a 2.49 ERA to pair with a league-best 0.71 WHIP through four outings. His 3.3% walk rate ranks in the 91st percentile, according to Baseball Savant, and helps keep the pitch count low.

That’s exactly what I’m looking for.

Gausman has only cleared this line once — throwing 8.0 innings of one-run ball against the Boston Red Sox on April 9 — but landed on exactly 6.0 IP (18 outs) twice.

Houston is a very mediocre 10-11 and has particularly struggled to hit right-handed pitching, making this a prime matchup.

27th in slugging percentage (.330)
25th in wRC+ (87)
24th in batting average (.226)
21st in K rate (23.1%)

Key stat: Gausman has fantastic numbers against the Astros, holding their current lineup to a .177 batting average with a 48.2% K rate in 85 plate appearances.

Quick pick

Springer over 1.5 bases (+165): Who had Springer being the best offensive Blue Jay on their bingo card? I doubt many, myself included, after an awful spring training.

It’s unlikely this will last the whole season, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s posting stellar advanced metrics, but I want to strike while the iron is hot.

Springer is hitting .344 (ninth-best in MLB) with a .972 OPS. He’s gone over this mark in 11 of 20 games, including two of his last three.

Astros starter Hunter Brown has been stellar this season (1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP), but Springer is 2-for-6 against the righty with a home run.

Brown also relies heavily on a fastball-sinker combo, throwing those pitches a combined 57% of the time. Springer is batting .438 against fastballs this season with a .688 SLG.

Blue Jays vs. Astros picks made at 12:23 p.m. ET on 04/21/2025.

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Best NBA playoff prop bets April 21: Bet on Karl-Anthony Towns and Christian Braun on Monday

I’ve got one prop bet from each of Monday’s NBA playoff games.

The pregame narrative: Christian Braun eats up big minutes for the Denver Nuggets, and I expect him to stuff the stat sheet against the Los Angeles Clippers. Before that, look for Karl-Anthony Towns to hit a pair of 3s against the Detroit Pistons.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 21.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Braun over 6.5 rebounds and assists (-154)

This isn’t the sexiest pick, and it’s definitely not the sexiest price, but I believe it’s a bet worth making.

Braun had a decent outing on Sunday, scoring 11 points (5-of-10 shooting) with three rebounds and one assist in 45 minutes of play.

He fell well short of this line, but let’s look at the positives. Interim head coach David Adelman ran the guard out for an absurd amount of playing time thanks to his defensive prowess. Braun should see 35-plus minutes again on Monday, and I expect him to stuff the stat sheet.

Braun averaged 5.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 25 games following the all-star break.

In that span, he recorded 7+ rebounds/assists 18 times. That 72.0% hit rate far exceeds the 58.85% implied probability of this wager.

The Clippers allow the fewest rebounds (5.77) and the fifth-fewest assists (4.59) per game to shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros.

It’s a tough matchup, but Braun should get enough opportunity to coast by this modest total.

Key stat: Braun cleared this line in both regular-season games against the Clippers where he played 30-plus minutes.

Best NBA picks

Towns over 1.5 threes (+130): Towns has played the Pistons twice in the last 11 days and shot a combined 1-for-4 from 3-point range. That’s not great, but I expect the big man to be more active from deep on Monday night.

Towns has averaged 2.0+ threes per game in each of the last six seasons.

He shot 42.0% from deep this year, which led all centres and was the 16th-best rate in the NBA.

KAT cleared this mark in both games against the Pistons before April 10, shooting a combined 7-for-15 from deep in those contests.

Detroit had the sixth-highest opponent 3-point percentage (36.7) in the NBA and allowed the eighth-most 3s per game to opposing centres this season.

NBA prop picks made at 8:48 a.m. ET on 04/21/2025.

Clippers vs. Nuggets SGP predictions Game 2: Bet on Kawhi Leonard, fade Jamal Murray at +300

After a thrilling overtime finish in Game 1, the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets run it back on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Denver erased an early 15-point deficit to force overtime and win 112-110 on Saturday. In this +300 SGP, I’m backing the Nuggets to at least keep things close with prop bets on Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray.

Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets playoff SGP predictions for Game 2 on April 21.

Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions

Parlay: Nuggets +8.5 | Leonard 2+ threes | Murray under 19.5 points (+300)

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Nuggets +8.5 (-400): Backing the Nuggets at home in the postseason — or in general — is a pretty safe bet.

Denver is 15-4 SU in the playoffs since the 2022-23 season, covering a +8.5 spread in 18 of 19 games.

It went 26-15 SU at home during the regular season, covering a +8.5 spread in 33 of 41 games.

Los Angeles looked like the better team on Saturday — holding Denver to a collective 43.6 FG% — but it still lost. That’s a bad sign for the road team.

The Clippers have failed to cover this number in all five games against the Nuggets this season (Saturday included), going 1-3 straight up at Ball Arena.

NBA SGP legs

Leonard 2+ threes (-200): I love the value of adding this leg to the parlay. Leonard wasn’t active from deep in Game 1 (1-for-3 shooting), but I’m not worried about that.

The Claw was on fire from 3-point land to close out the regular season, averaging 2.5 makes on 46.3% shooting in the final 10 games. In that span, he went 9-1 against this line.

Denver struggled to defend the arc all season, allowing opponents to shoot 36.5% from deep (24th in the NBA).

Murray under 19.5 points (-121): Murray has cleared this line in four of his last five games against the Clippers, but I believe some regression is coming.

The Canadian PG never scored more than 22 points in those contests.

Murray scored 21 points on 35.0% shooting in Game 1 (ended regulation with 19 points).

Murray takes 44% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 88th percentile of all NBA players, according to Cleaning the Glass. L.A. had the fifth-best mid-range defence in the NBA (42.1%).

The Clippers also held opposing point guards to the seventh-fewest PPG this season, per Fantasy Pros.

Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions made at 11:05 a.m. ET 04/21/2025.

Best NBA playoff prop bets April 21: Bet on Karl-Anthony Towns and Christian Braun on Monday

I’ve got one prop bet from each of Monday’s NBA playoff games.

The pregame narrative: Christian Braun eats up big minutes for the Denver Nuggets, and I expect him to stuff the stat sheet against the Los Angeles Clippers. Before that, look for Karl-Anthony Towns to hit a pair of 3s against the Detroit Pistons.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 21.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Braun over 6.5 rebounds and assists (-143)

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This isn’t the sexiest pick, and it’s definitely not the sexiest price, but I believe it’s a bet worth making.

Braun had a decent outing on Sunday, scoring 11 points (5-of-10 shooting) with three rebounds and one assist in 45 minutes of play.

He fell well short of this line, but let’s look at the positives. Interim head coach David Adelman ran the guard out for an absurd amount of playing time thanks to his defensive prowess. Braun should see 35-plus minutes again on Monday, and I expect him to stuff the stat sheet.

Braun averaged 5.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 25 games following the all-star break.

In that span, he recorded 7+ rebounds/assists 18 times. That 72.0% hit rate far exceeds the 58.85% implied probability of this wager.

The Clippers allow the fewest rebounds (5.77) and the fifth-fewest assists (4.59) per game to shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros.

It’s a tough matchup, but Braun should get enough opportunity to coast by this modest total.

Key stat: Braun cleared this line in both regular-season games against the Clippers where he played 30-plus minutes.

Best NBA picks

Towns over 1.5 threes (+100): Towns has played the Pistons twice in the last 11 days and shot a combined 1-for-4 from 3-point range. That’s not great, but I expect the big man to be more active from deep on Monday night.

Towns has averaged 2.0+ threes per game in each of the last six seasons.

He shot 42.0% from deep this year, which led all centres and was the 16th-best rate in the NBA.

KAT cleared this mark in both games against the Pistons before April 10, shooting a combined 7-for-15 from deep in those contests.

Detroit had the sixth-highest opponent 3-point percentage (36.7) in the NBA and allowed the eighth-most 3s per game to opposing centres this season.

NBA prop picks made at 8:48 a.m. ET on 04/21/2025.

Best NBA playoff prop bets April 20: Bet on Derrick White, Alperen Sengun on Sunday

I’ve got three prop bets from Sunday’s NBA playoff slate.

The pregame narrative: Derrick White shoots with volume and accuracy from deep and is a great bet to clear his 3-point total against the Orlando Magic. Elsewhere, back Alperen Sengun on the glass and fade Donovan Mitchell.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 20.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Derrick White 3+ threes (-134)

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White isn’t the first or second option on the Celtics, but that’s why they’re a championship-winning team.

The veteran shooting guard fits perfectly into Boston’s system and provides steady 3-point scoring while playing elite defence.

White averaged 3.5 threes on 9.1 attempts this season (38.3%).

He took 69% of his shots from deep, which ranked in the 94th percentile of all NBA players, according to Cleaning the Glass.

In last year’s postseason, White hit 3+ threes in 12 of 19 games.

Boston is favoured to run it back and win the East this year, and I expect White to be a significant contributor during its playoff run.

Orlando is a great defensive team, but it is best at containing the paint and mid-range. The Magic allowed opponents to shoot 37.3% from deep in non-garbage-time situations this season, which was the fifth-highest rate in the league.

Joe Mazzula’s game plan revolves around taking a crazy amount of 3s, and I expect White to have a heavy volume on Sunday.

Key stat: White hit 3+ threes in 57 of 76 games this season (73.6%).

Best NBA picks

Sengun over 10.5 rebounds (-114): The Golden State Warriors are an A-plus matchup for opposing bigs.

Golden State allowed the most rebounds per game to opposing centres over the last 30 days (17.24) and the third-most over the entire season (16.38).

6-foot-7 Jimmy Butler is the tallest player in its starting lineup, with 6-foot-6 Draymond Green playing centre.

Sengun had the luxury of playing the Warriors two weeks ago and finished that game with 14 rebounds in 33 minutes. That marked the third-straight game against Golden State where he cleared this total.

The Turkish centre averaged 10.3 rebounds this season, so this line seems light considering the opponent.

Mitchell under 24.5 points (-106): This is less about Mitchell’s performance and more about how good the players around him are.

The Cleveland Cavaliers coasted to an Eastern Conference-best 64-18 record, scoring by committee. Seven different players averaged over 10 points per game with four taking more than 10 shots per game.

Mitchell led the pack in both categories (24.0 PPG, 18.6 FGA/game), but he was far from the clear-cut alpha dog you see on other teams.

Fading him against this number makes sense, especially against the Miami Heat.

Miami ranked ninth in defensive rating this season and held opposing shooting guards to the second-fewest points (20.68) and 3s (3.02) per game.

NBA prop picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 04/18/2025.