The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game series against the Houston Astros on Monday.
The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Blue Jays, and he’s been stellar so far. I expect the righty to work deep into the ballgame.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Astros for April 21.
Blue Jays picks vs. Astros
Best Bet: Gausman over 18.5 outs (+115)
Gausman is off to a hot start after a disappointing 2024 season.
The righty has a 2.49 ERA to pair with a league-best 0.71 WHIP through four outings. His 3.3% walk rate ranks in the 91st percentile, according to Baseball Savant, and helps keep the pitch count low.
That’s exactly what I’m looking for.
Gausman has only cleared this line once — throwing 8.0 innings of one-run ball against the Boston Red Sox on April 9 — but landed on exactly 6.0 IP (18 outs) twice.
Houston is a very mediocre 10-11 and has particularly struggled to hit right-handed pitching, making this a prime matchup.
- 27th in slugging percentage (.330)
- 25th in wRC+ (87)
- 24th in batting average (.226)
- 21st in K rate (23.1%)
Key stat: Gausman has fantastic numbers against the Astros, holding their current lineup to a .177 batting average with a 48.2% K rate in 85 plate appearances.
Blue Jays vs. Astros picks made at 12:23 p.m. ET on 04/21/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.