San Diego Padres ace Michael King headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: I’m betting on King to clear his strikeout total against the Houston Astros, and Garrett Crochet to do the same against the Chicago White Sox. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also holds value to do damage at the plate.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 19.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: King over 6.5 strikeouts (+105)
Call it recency bias, but I think it’s fair to say the Padres won the Juan Soto trade.
King just threw a complete-game shutout for San Diego (striking out eight), while Soto is playing in Queens instead of the Bronx.
In 2024, King posted a 2.95 ERA in his first season with the Padres to pair with an 81st percentile K rate (27.7%).
The righty started 31 games and cleared this total 13 times, also landing on exactly six strikeouts eight times. One of those games was against the Astros on Sept. 17 when he fanned seven batters in 7.0 IP.
This season, King is 2-2 against this line with a 26.4% K rate.
The Astros are a below-average swing-and-miss team, but King dominated them last year and has a favourable history dating back to his days as a Yankees reliever.
Key stat: King has a 31.3% K rate against Houston’s current lineup in 48 plate appearances.
Best MLB picks
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+115): Vladdy isn’t playing like a $500-million man right now, but he’s not as far off as you’d think. Check out his 2025 numbers compared to Baseball Savant’s expected stats:
- .280 batting average and .373 slugging percentage
- .342 xBA (96th percentile) and .548 xSLG (95th percentile)
That’s nice and all, but Vladdy will have to replace the “expected” hits with real ones. Tonight’s matchup seems like a good opportunity.
The Seattle Mariners are trotting out ace Logan Gilbert to the mound, and Guerrero has had success against him in the past, going 5-for-13 with two home runs and a double.
Guerrero had the sixth-most total bases last year (335).
Crochet over 7.5 strikeouts (-134): This is a big number, but it’s one Crochet is capable of clearing, especially against the White Sox.
We just saw Crochet dominate his old club, throwing 7.1 innings of one-hit ball and striking out 11 on April 13. Two starts before that, he fanned eight Baltimore Orioles in 8.0 IP.
As a member of the White Sox last season, Crochet had a 35.1% K rate (98th percentile). He was one of the only good things going for Chicago, which was absolutely horrid at the plate.
Not much has changed this year. Expect Crochet to cruise.
MLB prop picks made at 9:31 a.m. ET on 04/18/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.