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Braves vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 15: Bet on Gausman to rack up strikeouts, fade Bichette

Two aces face off at Rogers Center on Tuesday when the Toronto Blue Jays host the Atlanta Braves.

The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman is off to a hot start and is a good bet to clear a modest strikeout total. Spencer Schwellenbach, meanwhile, has been borderline unhittable, which has me fading Bo Bichette.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 15.

Blue Jays picks vs. Braves

Best Bet: Gausman over 5.5 strikeouts (+105)

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Gausman is starting to look like his old self.

Through three games, the righty has a 2.33 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. The latter ranks second in all of MLB and has helped him pitch deep into ball games. I’m not asking Gausman to throw a complete game — though it would certainly help — and am instead banking on his swing-and-miss stuff.

In his last outing, against the Boston Red Sox on April 9, Gausman twirled an 8.0 IP gem where he gave up one run and had 10 strikeouts.

He fanned zero in the game before that against the New York Mets and had four against the Baltimore Orioles in his first start of the season. That’s pretty inconsistent.

So let’s take a look at his numbers, via Baseball Savant:

	K rate	Whiff rate	Chase rate
2023	31.3%	28.9%	32.6%
2024	21.4%	23.3%	29.8%
2025	20.6%	21.3%	34.8%

We’re early into the season, but it’s encouraging to see Gausman’s chase rate back near his 2023 numbers.

The Braves have the fifth-highest K rate in MLB so far (25.2%), so I like Gausman’s chances of having a Red Sox-type outing instead of a Mets one.

Key stat: Gausman has a 27.3% K rate against Atlanta’s current lineup (44 plate appearances).

Quick picks

Bichette under 1.5 bases (-139): I was looking for ways to back Schwellenbach, who is off to a Cy Young-calibre start (0.45 ERA, 0.65 WHIP), but wasn’t in love with taking the over on his 4.5 strikeout total.

That’s because Toronto has the third-lowest K rate (18.3%) and lowest whiff rate (21.7%) in MLB.

Then there was Schwellenbach’s outs prop, set at 17.5 with -167 juice toward the over. I think he clears that mark, but don’t want to pay the price.

So instead, I’ll turn to fading Bichette, who’s had quite a power outage to begin the season. Toronto’s shortstop is batting .297 but has just five extra-base hits (all doubles) in 17 games.

Bichette is 8-9 against this line and went 0-for-4 last night.

Braves vs. Blue Jays picks made at 12:23 p.m. ET on 04/15/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 15: Bet on Bryce Harper and Kyle Tucker to rake on Tuesday

Two all-star hitters and one pitcher are the focus of Tuesday’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Kyle Tucker is on fire and faces a pitcher who is over-indexing, while Bryce Harper gets an A-plus matchup against Justin Verlander. I’m also backing Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot to shove against the Boston Red Sox.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 15.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Tucker to score (-108)

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Tucker has the focus of our MLB prop bets a lot this season — and with the way he’s playing, I see no reason for that to change.

The first-year Chicago Cub has been on a tear, hitting .307 with a 1.042 OPS through 19 games. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in…

xBA (.313)
xSLG (.663)
K rate (12.1%)
Walk rate (17.6%)

That’ll do. Tonight, he gets to go up against Randy Vasquez, who has had a peculiar start to the season.

The San Diego Padres’ righty has a 1.72 ERA through three starts, but the underlying metrics indicate he’s been incredibly lucky.

Vasquez has a 6.38 ERA (11th percentile) to pair with a 9.7% K rate (fourth percentile) and 19.4% walk rate (fifth percentile).

It’s a borderline miracle he hasn’t gotten touched up yet, and I think Tucker and Co. end that trend tonight.

Key stat: Tucker has scored the most runs (19) and has the 11th-best on-base percentage (.429) in baseball.

Best MLB picks

Harper over 1.5 bases (+128): Harper and Verlander will both be in Cooperstown when it’s all said and done. But right now, the two are in very different stages of their career.

Harper is one year removed from finishing sixth in NL MVP voting, while Verlander is struggling to find form with the San Francisco Giants.

The 42-year-old righty has a 6.92 ERA over three starts, and last year’s stats (5.48 ERA in 90.1 IP) indicate this isn’t a small-sample outlier.

Harper is 6-for-12 lifetime against Verlander and seems due to break out of a mini-slump.

Pepiot over 17.5 outs (-104): I turned to Pepiot frequently last season and want to back him against the struggling Red Sox tonight.

Boston has the second-highest K rate in MLB.

The Red Sox are 2-6 in their last eight games. In that span, they’re averaging just 1.9 runs per game.

You could make a good argument taking Pepiot over 17.5 outs or over 6.5 Ks. It’s a small sample, but he’s held the Red Sox to a .225 batting average with a 40.0% K rate in 35 plate appearances.

I’ll opt for the former, though. Boston’s offence is anemic, and Pepiot’s pitch count has climbed with every game.

MLB prop picks made at 12:22 p.m. ET on 04/15/2025.

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Hawks vs. Magic play-in SGP predictions April 15: Bet Orlando to win behind Paolo Banchero

The NBA’s play-in begins on Tuesday when the Orlando Magic host the Atlanta Hawks.

The pregame narrative: A win guarantees either team the 7-seed and a battle with the Boston Celtics in Round 1. Paolo Banchero has been a force down the stretch for Orlando, and I expect him to show out once again in a winning effort.

Check out my Hawks vs. Magic play-in SGP predictions for April 15.

Hawks vs. Magic predictions

Parlay: Magic moneyline | Banchero 30+ points | Daniels over 10.5 rebounds/assists (+380)

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Magic moneyline (-200): Orlando played Atlanta on Sunday and lost 117-105. But both teams had their playoff seeding locked in. With starters rested, that result should be thrown out the window.

The Magic had won 11 of 15 games before that, with wins against the Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Lakers and Hawks.

I think it’s fair to say Orlando is a good team and wouldn’t be in this position if Banchero and Franz Wagner were healthy all season.

On home court, I like its chances of handling an Hawks team with sketchy defensive tendencies.

Atlanta went 12-18 straight up as a road underdog this season and was 21st in road defensive rating (115.4).

NBA SGP legs

Banchero 30+ points (-122): Banchero has feasted against the Hawks and played at an MVP-calibre pace to close out the season — this leg seems like a smash play to me.

Banchero averaged 29.7 points on 49.2% shooting in his last 20 games. In that span, he went 11-9 against this line.

The power forward has scored 30+ points in four of his last five games against the Hawks.

Atlanta allows the most points per game to the PF postion, according to Fantasy Pros. Banchero is by far the Magic’s best player and I expect him to completely take over this game.

Daniels over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-125): Dyson Daniels is a burgeoning defensive superstar and he’s found ways to produce on offence, too.

The 6-foot-7 guard averaged 6.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists following the all-star break, healthily above this line. It’s worth noting the Magic are a great defensive team, especially at home, which is baked into this price.

Still, I like Daniels to go over this mark.

He cleared this in eight of his last 10 games to close out the regular season and is 1-2 against this line vs. the Magic since joining Atlanta (landing on 10 rebounds/assists in one game).

Hawks vs. Magic predictions made at 10:40 a.m. ET 04/15/2025.

Odds to win the Masters: Justin Rose leads after Round 2, Corey Conners still in the mix

The Masters is halfway through, and a savvy veteran holds a one-shot lead.

The latest: Justin Rose didn’t have the same success he did in Round 1 but still leads at 8-under. Bryson DeChambeau sits in second at 7-under while Corey Conners and Rory McIlroy are tied in third at 6-under.

Here are the latest 2025 Masters odds.

Masters odds

Full Masters Betting Markets: CLICK HERE

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Best Masters odds

The favourite: Rory McIlroy (+300)

Rory McIlroy entered the Masters with high hopes after winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Players Championship.

He was 4-under through 14 holes on Thursday before double-bogeying two of the final four holes to shoot an even-par 72.

McIlroy rebounded in Round 2, shooting 6-under and inserting himself back into the fold at the top of the leaderboard.

If it weren’t for those costly mistakes in Round 1, the Northern Irishman would be comfortably in the lead. He still chases Rose but is understandably the favourite after shooting a 66 on Friday.

Masters betting notes

Full Masters Betting Markets: CLICK HERE

Aberg had the best chance of downing Scheffler in 2024 but ultimately came up short in his Masters debut. That was one of the Swede’s four runner-up finishes last year. Aberg broke through with a signature win at the Genesis Invitational in February and is still in the mix (t-12th) despite shooting 1-over on Friday.

Rose has been in this position before, but has never converted one of his five first-round Masters leads to a win. The 44-year-old Englishman still has gas in the tank, though, and finished runner-up to Xander Schauffele at last year’s Open Championship. Don’t expect him to wilt away.

Conners is back in familiar territory at Augusta after shooting an opening-round 68. The Canadian has three top-10 finishes at the Masters and entered this event in fine form, carding four straight top 20s behind strong iron play and putting. He is two shots back of the leader going into Round 3.

Bryson DeChambeau has been the most consistent player of the bunch, shooting 3-under in Round 1 and following that up with a 4-under round on Friday. The two-time U.S. Open holds sole possession of second and is +400 to win.

Scheffler entered the Masters in a “slump,” going winless in his last five starts following a T2 finish at the Texas Open. But the World No. 1 reminded everyone he’s not going anywhere with a bogey-free 68 on Thursday and a mess of a 71 on Friday. He is tied for fifth at 5-under and well within striking distance.

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Best NHL anytime goalscorer picks April 11: Back McDavid and Crosby to score on Friday night

Sometimes you just need to play the hits. My favourite NHL goalscorer picks from Friday are none other than Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby.

The pregame narrative: The Edmonton Oilers have an outside chance at capturing home ice in the opening round and have a comfy matchup against the San Jose Sharks tonight. Elsewhere, the Pittsburgh Penguins battle the New Jersey Devils.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for April 11.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: McDavid to score a goal (+105)

McDavid didn’t miss a beat when he returned from an eight-game injury absence on Wednesday.

Edmonton’s captain had three assists in 20:35 of ice time in a 4-3 win over the St. Louis Blues. He didn’t take a single shot, but I’m not worried about that becoming the norm, especially with Leon Draisaitl sidelined.

Draisaitl, who has a league-best 52 goals, is dealing with an undisclosed ailment and will not play on Friday.

The Oilers will certainly miss his goal-scoring touch come the playoffs but should do just fine in his absence tonight.

Check out how San Jose ranks defensively on a 60-minute basis, according to Natural Stat Trick:

32nd in goals (3.76)
31st in shots (31.4)
31st in chances (65.88)

Key stat: McDavid has nine goals in his last 15 games against the Sharks.

Quick pick

Crosby to score a goal (+170): It’s been all about Alex Ovechkin this season — and deservedly so — but we shouldn’t discount what Crosby has done on a much worse team.

He has 31 goals and 87 points while playing alongside Bryan Rust and Ville Koivunen on a 32-win team. That’s not a great sell for Crosby’s chances of scoring, but the point is he keeps doing it at the age of 37.

Tonight, the Pens go up against a Devils team locked into its playoff matchup with the Carolina Hurricanes.

New Jersey is starting backup goaltender Jake Allen, who has given up seven goals across his last two starts.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 2:07 p.m. ET on 03/24/2025.

Best NHL anytime goalscorer picks April 11: Back McDavid and Crosby to score on Friday night

Sometimes you just need to play the hits. My favourite NHL goalscorer picks from Friday are none other than Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby.

The pregame narrative: The Edmonton Oilers have an outside chance at capturing home ice in the opening round and have a comfy matchup against the San Jose Sharks tonight. Elsewhere, the Pittsburgh Penguins battle the New Jersey Devils.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for April 11.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: McDavid to score a goal (+100)

Embed: #112406

McDavid didn’t miss a beat when he returned from an eight-game injury absence on Wednesday.

Edmonton’s captain had three assists in 20:35 of ice time in a 4-3 win over the St. Louis Blues. He didn’t take a single shot, but I’m not worried about that becoming the norm, especially with Leon Draisaitl sidelined.

Draisaitl, who has a league-best 52 goals, is dealing with an undisclosed ailment and will not play on Friday.

The Oilers will certainly miss his goal-scoring touch come the playoffs but should do just fine in his absence tonight.

Check out how San Jose ranks defensively on a 60-minute basis, according to Natural Stat Trick:

32nd in goals (3.76)
31st in shots (31.4)
31st in chances (65.88)

Key stat: McDavid has nine goals in his last 15 games against the Sharks.

Quick pick

Crosby to score a goal (+185): It’s been all about Alex Ovechkin this season — and deservedly so — but we shouldn’t discount what Crosby has done on a much worse team.

He has 31 goals and 87 points while playing alongside Bryan Rust and Ville Koivunen on a 32-win team. That’s not a great sell for Crosby’s chances of scoring, but the point is he keeps doing it at the age of 37.

Tonight, the Pens go up against a Devils team locked into its playoff matchup with the Carolina Hurricanes.

New Jersey is starting backup goaltender Jake Allen, who has given up seven goals across his last two starts.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 2:07 p.m. ET on 03/24/2025.

Grizzlies vs. Nuggets SGP predictions April 11: Bet on Jokic and Morant at +320

The Denver Nuggets host the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday in a game with massive playoff implications.

The pregame narrative: Denver (48-32) occupies the fourth seed in the West but is just one game ahead of Memphis (47-33), which is currently seventh and in the play-in. Bet on the Nuggets to cover an alt spread alongside Nikola Jokic and Ja Morant props.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for April 11.

Grizzlies vs. Nuggets predictions

Parlay: Nuggets -3.5 | Jokic 25+ points | Morant 8+ assists (+320)

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Nuggets -3.5 (-195): Denver made waves on Tuesday when it fired NBA championship-winning head coach Michael Malone after a four-game losing streak.

Was that a good idea? It’ll take some time to bear out, but the Nuggets responded with a 124-116 win over the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday. In the short term, I expect Denver to keep rolling into the playoffs.

The Nuggets have the fourth-best home offensive rating in basketball (120.6) and catch the Grizzlies playing on a back-to-back.

Memphis lost 141-125 last night and now has to travel to play at altitude — this seems like a prime fade spot.

NBA SGP legs

Jokic 25+ points (-345): The odds indicate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win the MVP, but Jokic is making a strong case to snap that away.

The Serbian superstar is averaging 32.5 points, 13.0 rebounds and 9.4 assists since March 1. In that span, he has crushed this milestone:

25+ points in 10 of 14 games
30+ points in 8 of 14 games

Jokic scored 20 points his last time out against the Kings despite only taking 12 shots. In the three games before that, he dropped 41, 33 and 63 points.

I expect the three-time MVP to take over this game and lock in a favourable playoff seeding.

Morant 8+ assists (+107): One of the reasons Malone was fired was shoddy defence, and I don’t expect the Nuggets to right that ship within days of his departure.

Denver has the eighth-worst defensive rating at home.

The Nuggets allow the third-most assists per game (29.0).

Morant is 3-6 against this line in his last nine games, but he’s also landed on seven assists three times. This is a good matchup for him to over-index.

I’m also not worried about the point guard playing on a back-to-back. Morant is averaging 9.0 assists in six games with no rest.

Grizzlies vs. Nuggets predictions made at 1:00 p.m. ET 04/11/2025.

Best NBA prop bets April 11: Bet on Steph Curry to fill the basket on Friday

Every NBA team is in action on Friday as the league’s regular season draws to a close. I’ve got three prop bets for slate, headlined by Steph Curry.

The pregame narrative: The Golden State Warriors are in a five-team logjam to escape the Western Conference play-in, and I expect Curry to score in droves against the Portland Trail Blazers. My other plays are on Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 11.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Curry over 25.5 points (-108)

The Warriors are 14-point favourites as of Friday morning, so this game has blowout potential.

But that doesn’t scare me away from this line. Golden State is sixth in the West and can avoid the play-in if it holds serve. Steve Kerr has every incentive to run his horses out there — and if there is a massive blowout, Curry is likely to be at the helm.

The future Hall of Famer leads the Dubs in points (24.5) and shots (18.0) per game. This seems like a “leave no doubt” moment for Curry, who has been red-hot in April:

30.5 points/game
21.2 FGA/game
25+ points in 5 of 6 games
30+ points in 4 of 6 games

Portland has held Curry in check over the last three seasons (21.3 PPG, 2-4 vs. this line), but I’ll still side with the sharpshooter tonight.

Key stat: The Blazers have given up the 10th-most PPG to point guards this season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Best NBA picks

Giddey over 19.5 rebounds and assists (-108): The Chicago Bulls are one of the hottest teams in basketball, and Giddey has been at the forefront of their success.

The do-it-all point guard is averaging 20.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 9.4 assists (20.0RRA) since March 1. Giddey has cleared this line in three of his last four games and draws an A-plus matchup against the bottom-feeding Washington Wizards.

Washington has the third-worst defensive rating in basketball (118.7).

On a per-game basis, the Wizards allow the fifth-most rebounds and assists to point guards.

Daniels over 11.5 rebounds and assists (-130): Daniels blew by this total last night with a near-triple-double 10-9-9 performance.

The “Great Barrier Thief” is averaging career-highs in points (14.2), rebounds (5.9) and assists (4.3) while playing DPOY-calibre defence.

He is 7-6 against this line in his last 13 games and should stay hot against a Philadelphia 76ers team that stopped trying to win a while ago.

The Sixers are 4-18 with the third-worst defensive rating since March 1.

NBA prop picks made at 10:37 a.m. ET on 04/11/2025.

Best NBA prop bets April 11: Bet on Steph Curry to fill the basket on Friday

Every NBA team is in action on Friday as the league’s regular season draws to a close. I’ve got three prop bets for slate, headlined by Steph Curry.

The pregame narrative: The Golden State Warriors are in a five-team logjam to escape the Western Conference play-in, and I expect Curry to score in droves against the Portland Trail Blazers. My other plays are on Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 11.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Curry over 24.5 points (-124)

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The Warriors are 14-point favourites as of Friday morning, so this game has blowout potential.

But that doesn’t scare me away from this line. Golden State is sixth in the West and can avoid the play-in if it holds serve. Steve Kerr has every incentive to run his horses out there — and if there is a massive blowout, Curry is likely to be at the helm.

The future Hall of Famer leads the Dubs in points (24.5) and shots (18.0) per game. This seems like a “leave no doubt” moment for Curry, who has been red-hot in April:

30.5 points/game
21.2 FGA/game
25+ points in 5 of 6 games
30+ points in 4 of 6 games

Portland has held Curry in check over the last three seasons (21.3 PPG, 2-4 vs. this line), but I’ll still side with the sharpshooter tonight.

Key stat: The Blazers have given up the 10th-most PPG to point guards this season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Best NBA picks

Giddey over 39.5 PRA (-122): The Chicago Bulls are one of the hottest teams in basketball, and Giddey has been at the forefront of their success.

The do-it-all point guard is averaging 20.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 9.4 assists (40.4 PRA) since March 1. Giddey has cleared this line in three straight games and draws an A-plus matchup against the bottom-feeding Washington Wizards.

Washington has the third-worst defensive rating in basketball (118.7).

On a per-game basis, the Wizards allow the most points, the fifth-most rebounds, and the fifth-most assists to point guards.

Daniels over 26.5 PRA (-107): I backed Daniels on this exact market last night, and he came through with a 10-9-9 performance.

The “Great Barrier Thief” is averaging career-highs in points (14.2), rebounds (5.9) and assists (4.3) while playing DPOY-calibre defence.

He is 9-4 against this line in his last 13 games and should stay hot against a Philadelphia 76ers team that stopped trying to win a while ago.

The Sixers are 4-18 with the third-worst defensive rating since March 1.

NBA prop picks made at 10:37 a.m. ET on 04/11/2025.

Premier League predictions Matchday 32: Back Wolves at home, fade slumping Manchester City

I’ve got two prop bets for this weekend’s Premier League action.

The pregame narrative: Manchester City and Crystal Palace kick off the action on Saturday morning, and I’m fading the Citizens. Later, look for Wolverhampton to stay hot when it hosts Tottenham.

Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 32.

Premier League predictions

Go to full Premier League betting markets.

Best Bet: Wolverhampton to win (+125)

Wolverhampton is finding its form under Vito Pereira, who was appointed in late December with the task of avoiding relegation.

And he’s done just that, moving the Wolves up to 17th in the table after going 5-1-2 in the last eight games. They are now 12 points clear of Ipswich Town, who sit in 18th.

This recent run doesn’t appear to be a fluke, with 11 goals and 11.4 xG in the last nine games, per FBRef.

Tottenham has a poor 5-1-9 away record and has just one win in its last five EPL fixtures (1-1-3), and that came against last-place Southampton at home.

I don’t trust Ange Postecoglou’s side to perform at the hostile Molineux Stadium. Especially with it playing a Europa League quarterfinal match on Thursday afternoon.

Key stat: Wolverhampton had just two wins in 16 games before Pereira joined the club. Since then, it has seven wins in 15 games.

Quick pick

Crystal Palace to win or tie (+100): Erling Haaland is out, adding to the laundry list of injuries (John Stones, Rodri, Nathan Ake) that Man City has dealt with this season.

The Citizens are on a slide right now and risk missing out on Champions League qualification.

They have just two wins in their last six games while scoring five goals.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, has been red-hot, securing 13 points in its last six games (4-1-1) while scoring 11 goals.

Any side with Pep Guardiola at the helm will get the tactical edge, but I can see a clear path for Palace to pick up points here.

Premier League predictions made at 3:20 p.m. on 04/03/25.