Two all-star hitters and one pitcher are the focus of Tuesday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Kyle Tucker is on fire and faces a pitcher who is over-indexing, while Bryce Harper gets an A-plus matchup against Justin Verlander. I’m also backing Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot to shove against the Boston Red Sox.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 15.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Tucker to score (-108)
Tucker has the focus of our MLB prop bets a lot this season — and with the way he’s playing, I see no reason for that to change.
The first-year Chicago Cub has been on a tear, hitting .307 with a 1.042 OPS through 19 games. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in…
- xBA (.313)
- xSLG (.663)
- K rate (12.1%)
- Walk rate (17.6%)
That’ll do. Tonight, he gets to go up against Randy Vasquez, who has had a peculiar start to the season.
The San Diego Padres’ righty has a 1.72 ERA through three starts, but the underlying metrics indicate he’s been incredibly lucky.
Vasquez has a 6.38 ERA (11th percentile) to pair with a 9.7% K rate (fourth percentile) and 19.4% walk rate (fifth percentile).
It’s a borderline miracle he hasn’t gotten touched up yet, and I think Tucker and Co. end that trend tonight.
Key stat: Tucker has scored the most runs (19) and has the 11th-best on-base percentage (.429) in baseball.
Best MLB picks
Harper over 1.5 bases (+128): Harper and Verlander will both be in Cooperstown when it’s all said and done. But right now, the two are in very different stages of their career.
Harper is one year removed from finishing sixth in NL MVP voting, while Verlander is struggling to find form with the San Francisco Giants.
The 42-year-old righty has a 6.92 ERA over three starts, and last year’s stats (5.48 ERA in 90.1 IP) indicate this isn’t a small-sample outlier.
Harper is 6-for-12 lifetime against Verlander and seems due to break out of a mini-slump.
Pepiot over 17.5 outs (-104): I turned to Pepiot frequently last season and want to back him against the struggling Red Sox tonight.
- Boston has the second-highest K rate in MLB.
- The Red Sox are 2-6 in their last eight games. In that span, they’re averaging just 1.9 runs per game.
You could make a good argument taking Pepiot over 17.5 outs or over 6.5 Ks. It’s a small sample, but he’s held the Red Sox to a .225 batting average with a 40.0% K rate in 35 plate appearances.
I’ll opt for the former, though. Boston’s offence is anemic, and Pepiot’s pitch count has climbed with every game.
MLB prop picks made at 12:22 p.m. ET on 04/15/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.