Staff Writer

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks Game 1: Back Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Two young superstars headline this year’s Western Conference finals between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: The Shai Gilgeous-Alexander-led Thunder are heavily favoured to win Game 1 at home and this series as a whole. But Anthony Edwards has made a habit of turning up in big moments and has his Timberwolves in the WCF for a second-straight year.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks on Edwards and SGA for Game 1 on May 20.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks

Best Bet: Edwards over 6.5 rebounds (-106)

Edwards can light it up as a scorer, we all know that. The dynamic guard averaged 27.6 PPG this season and is just under that mark in the playoffs.

But he’s struggled to get things going against the Thunder this year, averaging 22.3 PPG on 36.4% shooting in four games.

I’ll wait and see what Chris Finch’s game plan is before mulling over his point total.

One thing I am sure of is Edwards’ usage. The guard is playing 39.9 minutes per game this postseason and has been more than willing to compete for rebounds:

8.0 rebounds/game
6+ rebounds in 8 of 10 games
7+ rebounds in 7 of 10 games

OKC has played at the second-fastest pace (101.18 possessions per 48 minutes) this postseason, and ranks ninth out of 16 teams in true shooting percentage (55.8%).

Plenty of possessions means plenty of shots — and plenty of rebounding opportunities for Edwards.

Key stat: Edwards is 4-0 against this line vs. OKC this season, averaging 9.3 per game.

Game 1 prop predictions

Gilgeous-Alexander over 12.5 rebounds/assists (+100): SGA has blown by this line in his last three games against the Timberwolves.

Feb. 24: 10 rebounds, 8 assists
Feb. 23: 8 rebounds, 8 assists
Feb. 13: 8 rebounds, 9 assists

He hasn’t been nearly as reliable against this number in the playoffs, but he still averaged 6.4 rebounds and 6.6 assists against the Denver Nuggets last round (3-4 vs. this line, landing on 12 RA twice).

Gilgeous-Alexander ranks fourth in potential assists per game (16.1) this postseason, which NBA.com categorizes as a pass leading directly to a shot.

I was looking long and hard at taking the over on his 6.5 assist total at -150, but just can’t get down with that type of juice.

This feels like a solid alternative.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks made at 9:18 a.m. ET 05/20/2025.

Panthers vs. Hurricanes prop picks Game 1: Fade Matthew Tkachuk, back Brad Marchand

The Eastern Conference final begins in earnest as the Carolina Hurricanes host the Florida Panthers on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: The defending champions are right back at it after besting the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 on Sunday. Carolina holds a three-day rest advantage and is favoured to win the series opener at home, where it is 5-0 this postseason.

Check out my Panthers vs. Hurricanes prop picks on Brad Marchand and Matthew Tkachuk for Game 1.

Panthers vs. Hurricanes picks

Best bet: Marchand to record a point (+105)

Marchand is the oldest player on Florida’s roster, but he hasn’t been playing like it.

The 37-year-old has three goals and 12 points this postseason and is coming off a monster performance against the Maple Leafs in Game 7.

Marchand scored a goal and added two assists, sending his longtime rival packing for a fifth time in a winner-take-all situation.

His Panthers will face a much tougher challenge in the conference final. The Hurricanes are allowing the fewest goals (1.80) and chances (50.56) per game, according to Natural Stat Trick.

But I still think this is solid value for Marchand, who is skating on Florida’s third line and will draw a favourable matchup.

The Marchand, Anton Lundell, and Eetu Luostarinen trio generated a team-high 88 chances and six goals against Toronto.

Key stat: Marchand has recorded a point in seven of his last nine games (11 total).

Game 1 prop prediction

Tkachuk under 2.5 shots (-154): This is an ugly-looking pick, but it should be profitable.

Tkachuk is clearly playing hurt after missing a large chunk of the season with a lower-body injury. The forward hasn’t scored in nine games and is averaging just 16:36 of ice time a night.

Tkachuk is averaging 1.41 shots per game this postseason.

He’s gone under this mark in 9 of 12 games, landing on exactly three shots in the outliers.

As mentioned, Carolina gives up the fewest chances per game. Playing on short rest, I expect Tkachuk to struggle finding open ice and shooting lanes.

Panthers vs. Hurricanes prop picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET 05/20/2025.

Oilers vs. Stars prop picks Game 1: Fade Connor McDavid and back Mikko Rantanen

The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars meet in the Western Conference final for the second time in as many years.

The pregame narrative: Edmonton bested Dallas in six games last season and is a slight favourite to win this matchup again. But the Stars have been playing some inspired hockey behind the superb play of Mikko Rantanen, who was acquired at the trade deadline.

Check out my Oilers vs. Stars prop picks on Connor McDavid and Rantanen.

Oilers vs. Stars picks

Best Bet: Rantanen to score (+137)

Rantanen has cooled off slightly after a torrid six-game stretch where he potted nine goals and logged 17 points.

The forward hasn’t scored a goal in three straight, logging just one assist in that span. But there’s every reason to believe he’ll get back to it against an Oilers team with questionable goaltending.

Stuart Skinner reclaimed the starting role after an undisclosed injury to Calvin Pickard, and I’m not quite sold on his play.

He has pitched back-to-back shutouts but was horrible against the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1 and had underwhelming regular season numbers (NHL ranks in parentheses):

2.81 GAA (31st)

.896 SV% (35th)

-0.031 goals saved above expected per 60 (52nd)

I love Rantanen’s chances of getting on the board to start this series.

Key stat: Rantanen ranks fifth this postseason in xG (5.98) and is fourth in high-danger chances (25).

Game 1 prop prediction

McDavis under 1.5 points (-130): Fading the best player in the world is a dangerous game, but it’s one I’m willing to play.

McDavid has 17 points in 11 playoff games, good for the second most among all skaters. Still, he has gone under 1.5 points six times, including four of six games on the road.

Dallas hasn’t given up much offensively at home. Last round, the team surrendered just four goals in three games to the Winnipeg Jets at American Airlines Center.

Jake Oettinger has been standing on his head and, to me, is a nice dark horse Conn Smythe candidate (currently priced at +1,400).

The netminder has a 2.47 GAA and .919 SV% this postseason.

McDavid has been held under 1.5 points in four of his last five games against Dallas.

Oilers vs. Stars prop picks made at 1:37 p.m. ET 05/19/2025.

Oilers vs. Stars prop picks Game 1: Fade Connor McDavid and back Mikko Rantanen

The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars meet in the Western Conference final for the second time in as many years.

The pregame narrative: Edmonton bested Dallas in six games last season and is a slight favourite to win this matchup again. But the Stars have been playing some inspired hockey behind the superb play of Mikko Rantanen, who was acquired at the trade deadline.

Check out my Oilers vs. Stars prop picks on Connor McDavid and Rantanen.

Oilers vs. Stars picks

Best Bet: Rantanen to score (+125)

Rantanen has cooled off slightly after a torrid six-game stretch where he potted nine goals and logged 17 points.

The forward hasn’t scored a goal in three straight, logging just one assist in that span. But there’s every reason to believe he’ll get back to it against an Oilers team with questionable goaltending.

Stuart Skinner reclaimed the starting role after an undisclosed injury to Calvin Pickard, and I’m not quite sold on his play.

He has pitched back-to-back shutouts but was horrible against the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1 and had underwhelming regular season numbers (NHL ranks in parentheses):

2.81 GAA (31st)

.896 SV% (35th)

-0.031 goals saved above expected per 60 (52nd)

I love Rantanen’s chances of getting on the board to start this series.

Key stat: Rantanen ranks fifth this postseason in xG (5.98) and is fourth in high-danger chances (25).

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Game 1 prop prediction

McDavis under 1.5 points (-129): Fading the best player in the world is a dangerous game, but it’s one I’m willing to play.

McDavid has 17 points in 11 playoff games, good for the second most among all skaters. Still, he has gone under 1.5 points six times, including four of six games on the road.

Dallas hasn’t given up much offensively at home. Last round, the team surrendered just four goals in three games to the Winnipeg Jets at American Airlines Center.

Jake Oettinger has been standing on his head and, to me, is a nice dark horse Conn Smythe candidate (currently priced at +1,400).

The netminder has a 2.47 GAA and .919 SV% this postseason.

McDavid has been held under 1.5 points in four of his last five games against Dallas.

Oilers vs. Stars prop picks made at 1:37 p.m. ET 05/19/2025.

Panthers vs. Hurricanes prop picks Game 1: Fade Matthew Tkachuk, back Brad Marchand

The Eastern Conference final begins in earnest as the Carolina Hurricanes host the Florida Panthers on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: The defending champions are right back at it after besting the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 on Sunday. Carolina holds a three-day rest advantage and is favoured to win the series opener at home, where it is 5-0 this postseason.

Check out my Panthers vs. Hurricanes prop picks on Brad Marchand and Matthew Tkachuk for Game 1.

Panthers vs. Hurricanes picks

Best bet: Marchand to record a point (+114)

Marchand is the oldest player on Florida’s roster, but he hasn’t been playing like it.

The 37-year-old has three goals and 12 points this postseason and is coming off a monster performance against the Maple Leafs in Game 7.

Marchand scored a goal and added two assists, sending his longtime rival packing for a fifth time in a winner-take-all situation.

His Panthers will face a much tougher challenge in the conference final. The Hurricanes are allowing the fewest goals (1.80) and chances (50.56) per game, according to Natural Stat Trick.

But I still think this is solid value for Marchand, who is skating on Florida’s third line and will draw a favourable matchup.

The Marchand, Anton Lundell, and Eetu Luostarinen trio generated a team-high 88 chances and six goals against Toronto.

Key stat: Marchand has recorded a point in seven of his last nine games (11 total).

Game 1 prop prediction

Tkachuk under 2.5 shots (-143): This is an ugly-looking pick, but it should be profitable.

Tkachuk is clearly playing hurt after missing a large chunk of the season with a lower-body injury. The forward hasn’t scored in nine games and is averaging just 16:36 of ice time a night.

Tkachuk is averaging 1.41 shots per game this postseason.

He’s gone under this mark in 9 of 12 games, landing on exactly three shots in the outliers.

As mentioned, Carolina gives up the fewest chances per game. Playing on short rest, I expect Tkachuk to struggle finding open ice and shooting lanes.

Panthers vs. Hurricanes prop picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 05/19/2025.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop picks May 19: Bet on Freddie Freeman, Corbin Carroll to deliver

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers close out Monday’s MLB slate.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles (29-18) paces the deep NL West and can create more separation between itself and fourth-place Arizona (25-22) during this three-game series. The Dodgers are slight home favourites with Landon Knack pitching opposite Brandon Pfaadt.

Check out my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop bets, featuring Corbin Carroll and Freddie Freeman.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop bets

Best Bet: Carroll over 1.5 bases (+100)

Three of the top five players on the NL MVP odds board are playing in this series, including Carroll (+550), who is sandwiched between Shohei Ohtani (+110) and Freeman (+1,200).

Arizona’s right fielder has returned to form after a sophomore slump, posting a stellar .279/.352/.589 slash line with equally impressive batted-ball metrics.

98th percentile xSLG (.620)
95th percentile barrel rate (17.4%)
94th percentile hard-hit rate (54.9%)

Carroll is crushing the ball this season, ranking fifth in home runs (14) and third in total bases (116), and there is plenty of evidence pointing to another strong outing tonight.

Knack has been thrust into a starting role for the Dodgers due to injuries, and the second-year righty has gotten lit up to the tune of a 6.61 ERA across four starts:

April 9 vs. Nationals: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER
April 15 vs. Rockies: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER
May 7 vs. Marlins: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER
May 13 vs. Athletics: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER

Outside of a strong outing against the Marlins, Knack has been hit hard by three pretty bad teams.

The left-batting Carroll wields a platoon advantage in this matchup, and I expect him to deliver.

Key Stat: Carroll’s SLG vs. RHP (.662) is notably higher than his SLG vs. LHP (.438).

Embed: #113942

Best MLB picks

Freeman to record an RBI (+135): This seems like tremendous value given the way Freeman is playing and where he’s situated in L.A.’s lineup.

The 35-year-old is batting a scorching .371 this season, typically hitting third behind Ohtani and Mookie Betts when the Dodgers face RHPs.

Freeman ranks 10th in RBI (34) and is batting .412 with RISP (ninth-best in MLB).

Pfaadt has had Ohtani’s number (2-for-9, three Ks), but I still expect the generational hitter to find his way on base. Betts, meanwhile, has gotten aboard in 7-of-16 at-bats against the righty (.437 OBP).

Arizona’s starter has also been unspectacular this season. Pfaadt’s 5.53 xERA is much higher than his 3.73 standard ERA, indicating some regression is on the horizon.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop bets made at 10:42 a.m. ET on 05/19/2025.

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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop picks May 19: Bet on Freddie Freeman, Corbin Carroll to deliver

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers close out Monday’s MLB slate.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles (29-18) paces the deep NL West and can create more separation between itself and fourth-place Arizona (25-22) during this three-game series. The Dodgers are slight home favourites with Landon Knack pitching opposite Brandon Pfaadt.

Check out my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop bets, featuring Corbin Carroll and Freddie Freeman.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop bets

Best Bet: Carroll over 1.5 bases (-106)

Three of the top five players on the NL MVP odds board are playing in this series, including Carroll (+550), who is sandwiched between Shohei Ohtani (+110) and Freeman (+1,200).

Arizona’s right fielder has returned to form after a sophomore slump, posting a stellar .279/.352/.589 slash line with equally impressive batted-ball metrics.

98th percentile xSLG (.620)
95th percentile barrel rate (17.4%)
94th percentile hard-hit rate (54.9%)

Carroll is crushing the ball this season, ranking fifth in home runs (14) and third in total bases (116), and there is plenty of evidence pointing to another strong outing tonight.

Knack has been thrust into a starting role for the Dodgers due to injuries, and the second-year righty has gotten lit up to the tune of a 6.61 ERA across four starts:

April 9 vs. Nationals: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER
April 15 vs. Rockies: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER
May 7 vs. Marlins: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER
May 13 vs. Athletics: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER

Outside of a strong outing against the Marlins, Knack has been hit hard by three pretty bad teams.

The left-batting Carroll wields a platoon advantage in this matchup, and I expect him to deliver.

Key Stat: Carroll’s SLG vs. RHP (.662) is notably higher than his SLG vs. LHP (.438).

Best MLB picks

Freeman to record an RBI (+137): This seems like tremendous value given the way Freeman is playing and where he’s situated in L.A.’s lineup.

The 35-year-old is batting a scorching .371 this season, typically hitting third behind Ohtani and Mookie Betts when the Dodgers face RHPs.

Freeman ranks 10th in RBI (34) and is batting .412 with RISP (ninth-best in MLB).

Pfaadt has had Ohtani’s number (2-for-9, three Ks), but I still expect the generational hitter to find his way on base. Betts, meanwhile, has gotten aboard in 7-of-16 at-bats against the righty (.437 OBP).

Arizona’s starter has also been unspectacular this season. Pfaadt’s 5.53 xERA is much higher than his 3.73 standard ERA, indicating some regression is on the horizon.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prop bets made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 05/19/2025.

Mets vs. Yankees Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Fade Max Fried and back Aaron Judge

The rubber match of this season’s first Subway Series will be decided on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: New York is favoured to win at Yankee Stadium behind Max Fried, who is leading MLB in ERA and gaining steam as an early-season Cy Young contender. The Mets counter a steady southpaw of their own, David Peterson.

Check out my Mets vs. Yankees prop bets, featuring Fried and Aaron Judge.

Mets vs. Yankees prop bets

Best Bet: Fried under 5.5 strikeouts (+100)

Fried has been a maestro this season, but there is good reason to fade him on tonight’s strikeout total.

The lefty’s 3.59 xERA is 2.48 higher than his 1.11 ERA. That’s the 13th-largest difference in MLB, per Baseball Savant.

Fried doesn’t miss a ton of bats. He has a 34th percentile whiff rate (22.6) and 35th percentile chase rate (26.2).

I have to give Fried his flowers for a hot start, but those underlying numbers suggest he’s been quite lucky. And now he goes up against a team which has excellent plate discipline and hits lefties for power.

The Mets have the fifth-lowest K rate (19.4%) and seventh-highest slugging percentage (.423) against southpaws this season.

Fried has gone under this total in four of eight starts, landing on exactly six strikeouts twice.

I don’t expect him to overindex in a tough matchup.

Key Stat: Fried has gone under this mark in four of his last six starts against the Mets, averaging 5.16 Ks in those outings.

Best MLB picks

Judge over 1.5 bases (-125): Judge has been hitting the cover off the ball this season, leading MLB in batting average (.402), slugging percentage (.753), and total bases (131).

He’s a good bet to clear this total on any given night against any pitcher, and Peterson is no different.

Judge’s splits against lefties are downright absurd:

.480 BA
1.280 SLG
Eight XBH in 25 at-bats

Peterson surrenders hard contact (95 mph+ exit velocity) on 51.9% of balls put in play. That ranks in the fourth percentile among all MLB pitchers.

I expect Judge to put one into the seats tonight.

Mets vs. Yankees prop picks made at 12:53 p.m. ET on 05/18/2025.

Mets vs. Yankees Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Fade Max Fried and back Aaron Judge

The rubber match of this season’s first Subway Series will be decided on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: New York is favoured to win at Yankee Stadium behind Max Fried, who is leading MLB in ERA and gaining steam as an early-season Cy Young contender. The Mets counter a steady southpaw of their own, David Peterson.

Check out my Mets vs. Yankees prop bets, featuring Fried and Aaron Judge.

Mets vs. Yankees prop bets

Best Bet: Fried under 5.5 strikeouts (+100)

Fried has been a maestro this season, but there is good reason to fade him on tonight’s strikeout total.

The lefty’s 3.59 xERA is 2.48 higher than his 1.11 ERA. That’s the 13th-largest difference in MLB, per Baseball Savant.

Fried doesn’t miss a ton of bats. He has a 34th percentile whiff rate (22.6) and 35th percentile chase rate (26.2).

I have to give Fried his flowers for a hot start, but those underlying numbers suggest he’s been quite lucky. And now he goes up against a team which has excellent plate discipline and hits lefties for power.

The Mets have the fifth-lowest K rate (19.4%) and seventh-highest slugging percentage (.423) against southpaws this season.

Fried has gone under this total in four of eight starts, landing on exactly six strikeouts twice.

I don’t expect him to overindex in a tough matchup.

Key Stat: Fried has gone under this mark in four of his last six starts against the Mets, averaging 5.16 Ks in those outings.

Embed: #113919

Best MLB picks

Judge over 1.5 bases (-122): Judge has been hitting the cover off the ball this season, leading MLB in batting average (.402), slugging percentage (.753), and total bases (131).

He’s a good bet to clear this total on any given night against any pitcher, and Peterson is no different.

Judge’s splits against lefties are downright absurd:

.480 BA
1.280 SLG
Eight XBH in 25 at-bats

Peterson surrenders hard contact (95 mph+ exit velocity) on 51.9% of balls put in play. That ranks in the fourth percentile among all MLB pitchers.

I expect Judge to put one into the seats tonight.

Mets vs. Yankees prop picks made at 12:53 p.m. ET on 05/18/2025.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs SGP predictions Game 7: Bet on Toronto to win behind William Nylander

The future of the Toronto Maple Leafs will be decided in Sunday’s winner-take-all Game 7 against the Florida Panthers.

The pregame narrative: Come Monday morning, the “Core Four” could be no more … or Toronto will be gearing up to play in its first conference final since 2002. The Maple Leafs are a slight home underdog against the defending-champion Panthers after staying alive with a shutout win in Game 6.

Check out my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs playoff SGP predictions featuring William Nylander for Game 7 on May 18.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs predictions

Parlay: Maple Leafs moneyline | Nylander 1+ points | Under 6.5 goals (+270)

Maple Leafs moneyline (+112): Toronto has never won a Game 7 in the Auston Matthews era — but I say that changes tonight.

The Maple Leafs have been dynamite at Scotiabank Arena this season. They went 27-13-1 there during the regular season and are 4-2 at home in the postseason.

The losses have been ugly, most recently taking a 6-1 beating at the hands of the Panthers on Wednesday night. But Toronto responded well during Friday’s 2-0 win:

31 blocked shots
61.4% faceoff percentage
Generated 62.5% of high-danger chances

Beating a team like Florida means doing the little things right, and Toronto has proven it can do that at times. With everything on the line, I expect the Leafs to sell out on Sunday.

Joseph Woll has also been up to the challenge when facing elimination. The netminder has a 4-1 record with a 1.13 GAA and .958 SV% in those games.

Toronto is 11-2 in its last 13 home games (3-1 vs. Florida).

Embed: #113912

NHL SGP legs

Nylander 1+ points (-186): Of all the Maple Leafs superstars, I trust Nylander the most.

The Swedish winger is leading Toronto in goals (six) and points (15) this postseason.

He’s been held off the scoresheet in three straight but had six points in the first three games of this series (three goals, 1 assist in Games 1 and 2 at home).

He’s been the man to step up in Game 7s. Nylander has two goals and four points in five winner-take-all outings, and scored Toronto’s lone goal against the Boston Bruins last year.

A lot is made about how unshakable Nylander is — and the moment doesn’t get bigger than this.

Under 6.5 goals (-278): This game will likely come down to goaltending, and I expect each netminder to be solid.

Woll, as mentioned, has a knack for turning up in the biggest moments. And Sergei Bobrovsky is in form after a tough start to the series.

Florida’s Vezina-winning goaltender has held the Maple Leafs to just three goals over the last two games.

The under on this game total is 7-4 in the last 11 playoff meetings between these teams. It’s also 4-1 in Toronto’s last five Game 7s.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs predictions made at 11:02 a.m. ET 05/18/2025.