The rubber match of this season’s first Subway Series will be decided on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: New York is favoured to win at Yankee Stadium behind Max Fried, who is leading MLB in ERA and gaining steam as an early-season Cy Young contender. The Mets counter a steady southpaw of their own, David Peterson.
Check out my Mets vs. Yankees prop bets, featuring Fried and Aaron Judge.
Mets vs. Yankees prop bets
Best Bet: Fried under 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
Fried has been a maestro this season, but there is good reason to fade him on tonight’s strikeout total.
- The lefty’s 3.59 xERA is 2.48 higher than his 1.11 ERA. That’s the 13th-largest difference in MLB, per Baseball Savant.
- Fried doesn’t miss a ton of bats. He has a 34th percentile whiff rate (22.6) and 35th percentile chase rate (26.2).
I have to give Fried his flowers for a hot start, but those underlying numbers suggest he’s been quite lucky. And now he goes up against a team which has excellent plate discipline and hits lefties for power.
The Mets have the fifth-lowest K rate (19.4%) and seventh-highest slugging percentage (.423) against southpaws this season.
Fried has gone under this total in four of eight starts, landing on exactly six strikeouts twice.
I don’t expect him to overindex in a tough matchup.
Key Stat: Fried has gone under this mark in four of his last six starts against the Mets, averaging 5.16 Ks in those outings.
Best MLB picks
Judge over 1.5 bases (-122): Judge has been hitting the cover off the ball this season, leading MLB in batting average (.402), slugging percentage (.753), and total bases (131).
He’s a good bet to clear this total on any given night against any pitcher, and Peterson is no different.
Judge’s splits against lefties are downright absurd:
- .480 BA
- 1.280 SLG
- Eight XBH in 25 at-bats
Peterson surrenders hard contact (95 mph+ exit velocity) on 51.9% of balls put in play. That ranks in the fourth percentile among all MLB pitchers.
I expect Judge to put one into the seats tonight.
Mets vs. Yankees prop picks made at 12:53 p.m. ET on 05/18/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.