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Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions Game 7: Back Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren at +290

The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder battle for a spot in the Western Conference final on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Denver staved off elimination at home on Thursday but is a sizeable underdog to win Game 7 at Paycom Center, where OKC is 39-7 this year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander captured the scoring title this season, and the Canadian is odds-on to score 30 points today.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions for May 18, featuring Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren.

Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Nuggets +10.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Holmgren 8+ rebounds (+290)

Nuggets +10.5 (-167): Beating the Thunder at home is a tough ask, and I’m not sure the Nuggets can do it, even with a superhuman effort from Nikola Jokic.

But I do like Denver’s chances of keeping this one close for a few reasons:

The Nuggets are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

They have covered a +10.5 spread in 11 of 13 playoff games, including five of six games this series.

Denver is 12-9-1 ATS as a road underdog this season, losing those games by an average of just 3.3 points.

Oklahoma City had a historically efficient season, posting the second-best net rating of all time. However, its young core doesn’t have much playoff experience, while the Jokic-led Nuggets have been to and won the NBA Finals.

I can see the Thunder starting this game off slightly shaky, and this coming down to the wire.

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NBA SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-165): One player I trust to fill the basket for OKC is Gilgeous-Alexander, which isn’t a hot take considering the Canadian averaged a league-best 32.7 PPG this year.

SGA has scored 30-plus points in all three home games this series, while shooting a combined 35-of-62 (56.4%) from the field.

Barring a blowout, which I don’t anticipate happening, Gilgeous-Alexander should get plenty of run and take around 20 shots. That type of volume puts us in good shape, especially considering SGA’s frequent trips to the free-throw line.

SGA has scored at least 25 points in 13 of his last 14 games against Denver, reaching this milestone eight times.

Holmgren 8+ rebounds (-278): Holmgren has stepped his game up as a rebounder this series.

The 7-foot-1 forward is averaging a team-high 10.8 rebounds per game against Denver’s imposing frontcourt.

He cleared this mark in five straight games, logging double-digit boards in four of them.

Holmgren is 8-2 vs. this milestone in the playoffs.

I like Holmgren’s chances of having another big night on the glass as long as he stays out of early foul trouble.

Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions made at 9:40 a.m. ET 05/18/2025.

Serie A Matchday 37 picks and predictions: Bet on Napoli to win convincingly, Juventus to shut out Udinese

It’s the penultimate matchday in Serie A, and much is still to be decided, including who will win the Scudetto.

The pregame narrative: Napoli holds a one-point lead over Inter Milan atop the table, and both are favoured to win this weekend. Four teams — Juventus, Lazio, Roma and Bologna — are separated by two points for the league’s final Champions League qualification spot.

Check out the best Serie A predictions for Matchday 37, taking place May 17-18.

Serie A predictions

Best bet: Napoli half time/full time (+115)

Napoli has lost only three games all season, and has a seemingly easy finish en route to a fourth Scudetto.

Gli Azzurri are on the road against Parma this weekend, which sits 16th in Serie A, and then host Cagliari (14th).

Take a look at how Antonio Conte’s side ranks in several key metrics, provided by FotMob:

First in match rating (7.07)
First in goals conceded per game (0.8)
First in clean sheets (17)
Fifth in xG (51.0)

Napoli’s defence has been in top shape lately, allowing just two goals (both on May 11 against Genoa) in its last five games.

It took a half-time lead in three of those games and converted those to full-time victories.

Parma has a poor 5-5-8 home record and has picked up points in four of its last five games at Stadio Ennio Tardini.

But the squad has conceded five goals in those contests, and is giving up a whopping 1.6 goals per game this year (16th in Serie A).

I’m confident Napoli can score, and struggle to see how Parma will crack Conte’s defence.

Key stat: Napoli has held the lead in 50% of its away fixtures, the second-best mark in Serie A.

Go to full Serie A betting markets

Best Serie A Matchday 37 bets

Udinese under 0.5 goals (-130): Juventus holds the fourth and final Champions League qualification spot, slotting ahead of Lazio on goal differential (+20 to +13).

The White and Blacks have played a boring, but effective brand of football in Thiago Motta’s first season as manager.

Juve ranks a predestrian eighth in goals per game (1.5) while conceding the second-fewest goals per contest (0.9).

It has also allowed the third-fewest xG (34.3) and ranks second in clean sheets (16).

This seems like a perfect spot for Juventus to pick up its 17th shutout of the season.

Udinese is scoring a lacklustre 1.08 goals per game and was shut out, 2-0, in the reverse fixture at Stadio Friuli.

Look for Juventus to strike first and then park the bus in an effort to maintain its UCL qualifying status.

Serie A predictions made at 3:00 p.m. on 05/15/2025.

Serie A Matchday 37 picks and predictions: Bet on Napoli to win convincingly, Juventus to shut out Udinese

It’s the penultimate matchday in Serie A, and much is still to be decided, including who will win the Scudetto.

The pregame narrative: Napoli holds a one-point lead over Inter Milan atop the table, and both are favoured to win this weekend. Four teams — Juventus, Lazio, Roma and Bologna — are separated by two points for the league’s final Champions League qualification spot.

Check out the best Serie A predictions for Matchday 37, taking place May 17-18.

Serie A predictions

Best bet: Napoli half time/full time (+125)

Napoli has lost only three games all season, and has a seemingly easy finish en route to a fourth Scudetto.

Gli Azzurri are on the road against Parma this weekend, which sits 16th in Serie A, and then host Cagliari (14th).

Take a look at how Antonio Conte’s side ranks in several key metrics, provided by FotMob:

First in match rating (7.07)
First in goals conceded per game (0.8)
First in clean sheets (17)
Fifth in xG (51.0)

Napoli’s defence has been in top shape lately, allowing just two goals (both on May 11 against Genoa) in its last five games.

It took a half-time lead in three of those games and converted those to full-time victories.

Parma has a poor 5-5-8 home record and has picked up points in four of its last five games at Stadio Ennio Tardini.

But the squad has conceded five goals in those contests, and is giving up a whopping 1.6 goals per game this year (16th in Serie A).

I’m confident Napoli can score, and struggle to see how Parma will crack Conte’s defence.

Key stat: Napoli has held the lead in 50% of its away fixtures, the second-best mark in Serie A.

Go to full Serie A betting markets

Best Serie A Matchday 37 bets

Udinese under 0.5 goals (-136): Juventus holds the fourth and final Champions League qualification spot, slotting ahead of Lazio on goal differential (+20 to +13).

The White and Blacks have played a boring, but effective brand of football in Thiago Motta’s first season as manager.

Juve ranks a predestrian eighth in goals per game (1.5) while conceding the second-fewest goals per contest (0.9).

It has also allowed the third-fewest xG (34.3) and ranks second in clean sheets (16).

This seems like a perfect spot for Juventus to pick up its 17th shutout of the season.

Udinese is scoring a lacklustre 1.08 goals per game and was shut out, 2-0, in the reverse fixture at Stadio Friuli.

Look for Juventus to strike first and then park the bus in an effort to maintain its UCL qualifying status.

Serie A predictions made at 3:00 p.m. on 05/15/2025.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets Game 6: Take the under, fade Mitch Marner on Friday

The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the verge of elimination after coughing up a 2-0 series lead to the Florida Panthers.

The pregame narrative: Florida has won three straight and is a hefty home favourite on Friday night. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are slumping at the worst time and will have to find a way past a surging Sergei Bobrovsky to keep Toronto’s Stanley Cup hopes alive.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets for Game 6 of the second round, featuring a fade on Marner.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets

Best Bet: Marner to not record an assist (+105)

This could be Marner’s final game as a Maple Leaf, and it looks like he’s going out with a whimper.

The embattled forward had a nightmare showing in Game 5. He logged zero points and made a careless turnover that ended up in the back of Toronto’s net.

I’m sure you’ve seen these splits before, but just take a look at what Marner has done (or hasn’t done, more accurately) in crunch time from 2020-21 onward:

Games 1-4: 28 GP, 8 G, 26 A
Games 5-7: 15 GP, 0 G, 6 A

A 0.4 PPG pace in these situations is a tough look for a player logging top minutes, and there is solid value backing Marner to not record a point at +155.

I’ll opt for a little more safety, though, by taking him to not record an assist at +105.

I’m also concerned about Matthews, who has just three goals in his last four playoff series. Toronto’s captain is snakebitten, and he tends to be Marner’s top beneficiary.

Key stat: Marner has failed to record an assist in six of 10 playoff games against Florida.

Game 6 pick

Under 5.5 goals (-118): Toronto was one goal away from putting a 3-0 stranglehold on this series.

Instead, none other than Brad Marchand scored the overtime winner, and the Maple Leafs have done nothing since.

Bobrovsky pitched a shutout in Game 4 and held Toronto to one late goal on 32 shots in Game 5. The Vezina-winning netminder is rounding into form and is the main reason why I’m taking this under.

I also expect Toronto to turn in a better effort, at least defensively, than on Wednesday.

The Maple Leafs have been a stingy team all season and aren’t afraid to clog shooting lanes and block a ton of shots. There is no excuse for Craig Berube’s group to leave anything on the table.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets made at 12:34 p.m. ET 05/15/2025.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets Game 6: Take the under, fade Mitch Marner on Friday

The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the verge of elimination after coughing up a 2-0 series lead to the Florida Panthers.

The pregame narrative: Florida has won three straight and is a hefty home favourite on Friday night. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are slumping at the worst time and will have to find a way past a surging Sergei Bobrovsky to keep Toronto’s Stanley Cup hopes alive.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets for Game 6 of the second round, featuring a fade on Marner.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets

Best Bet: Marner to not record an assist (+110)

This could be Marner’s final game as a Maple Leaf, and it looks like he’s going out with a whimper.

The embattled forward had a nightmare showing in Game 5. He logged zero points and made a careless turnover that ended up in the back of Toronto’s net.

I’m sure you’ve seen these splits before, but just take a look at what Marner has done (or hasn’t done, more accurately) in crunch time from 2020-21 onward:

Games 1-4: 28 GP, 8 G, 26 A
Games 5-7: 15 GP, 0 G, 6 A

A 0.4 PPG pace in these situations is a tough look for a player logging top minutes, and there is solid value backing Marner to not record a point at +165.

I’ll opt for a little more safety, though, by taking him to not record an assist at +110.

I’m also concerned about Matthews, who has just three goals in his last four playoff series. Toronto’s captain is snakebitten, and he tends to be Marner’s top beneficiary.

Key stat: Marner has failed to record an assist in six of 10 playoff games against Florida.

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Game 6 pick

Under 6 goals (-132): Toronto was one goal away from putting a 3-0 stranglehold on this series.

Instead, none other than Brad Marchand scored the overtime winner, and the Maple Leafs have done nothing since.

Bobrovsky pitched a shutout in Game 4 and held Toronto to one late goal on 32 shots in Game 5. The Vezina-winning netminder is rounding into form and is the main reason why I’m taking this under.

I also expect Toronto to turn in a better effort, at least defensively, than on Wednesday.

The Maple Leafs have been a stingy team all season and aren’t afraid to clog shooting lanes and block a ton of shots. There is no excuse for Craig Berube’s group to leave anything on the table.

The under on this total is 2-2-1 in Toronto’s five playoff road games.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers best bets made at 12:34 p.m. ET 05/15/2025.

Stars vs. Jets SGP predictions Game 5: Bet on Dallas to advance, Rantanen to produce at +350

The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets face elimination on Thursday after losing both road games against the Dallas Stars.

The pregame narrative: Connor Hellebuyck has been brutal this postseason and must return to Vezina form to keep Winnipeg alive. The Jets are slight home favourites against the Stars’ red-hot offence, led by Mikko Rantanen.

Check out my Stars vs. Jets playoff SGP predictions featuring Rantanen and Kyle Connor for Game 5 on May 15.

Stars vs. Jets predictions

Parlay: Stars moneyline | Rantanen to score 1+ points | Connor to score 1+ points (+350)

Stars moneyline (+108): Goaltending is the great equalizer, and Hellebuyck’s play is the reason Winnipeg earned home ice throughout the postseason.

But that cuts both ways, and his horrible run has the Jets one game away from breaking out the golf clubs.

Regular season: 2.01 GAA, .925 SV%, 3+ goals allowed in 23 of 63 starts
Potseason: 3.48 GAA, .851 SV%, 3+ goals allowed in 9 of 11 starts

Dallas, meanwhile, has gotten elite play out of its goalie, Jake Oettinger. The 26-year-old has a 2.55 GAA and .917 SV% this postseason and has shut the door in back-to-back games.

It would be one thing if the Jets were dominating play at 5-on-5, but they’re not.

Winnipeg has generated just two more chances per game than Dallas. With how tightly contested things are, I have to pick the team with better goaltending.

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NHL SGP legs

Rantanen to score 1+ points (-245): Rantanen has been on another planet lately, almost single-handedly pushing Dallas past the Colorado Avalanche.

He had five goals and 11 points in the final three games of that series and leads all skaters this postseason with 19 points.

The Finnish winger has seven points in four games against Winnipeg, clearing this total three times.

His line with Roope Hintz and Mikael Granlund leads Dallas in chances (41), scoring chances (25), goals (three), and xG (2.36), per Natural Stat Trick.

Conner to score 1+ points (-235): I don’t expect Oettinger to pitch a shutout, and any offence Winnipeg generates is likely to involve Connor.

The American is coming off a career season where he logged 41 goals and 97 points.

In the playoffs, he has five goals and 14 points in 11 games (8-3 vs. this line).

Connor’s line with Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi has generated double the amount of scoring chances (18) as any other line.

Look for that trio to produce again.

Stars vs. Jets predictions made at 11:25 a.m. ET 05/15/2025.

Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions Game 6: Back Holmgren to record a double-double at +440

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets meet in an elimination game at altitude on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: OKC is one win away from its first conference championship in the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander era. Denver is 18-6 at home in the playoffs over the last three seasons but is an underdog to force a winner-take-all Game 7.

Check out my Thunder vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for May 15, featuring Nikola Jokic and Chet Holmgren.

Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions

Parlay: Thunder moneyline | Holmgren double-double | Jokic 2+ threes (+440)

Thunder moneyline (-195): Denver is never a pushover at home, but I expect OKC’s depth to come through in a tightly-contested game.

SGA and Jokic tend to cancel each other out, and the Thunder are getting a lot more out of their secondary players:

OKC bench: 34.3 PPG (5th in playoffs)
DEN bench: 20.0 PPG (13th in playoffs)

The Thunder are 33-8 straight up as road favourites this year, winning those games by an average of 9.9 points. They also had the best road net rating (+10.5) during the regular season.

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NBA SGP legs

Holmgren double-double (+125): This leg really boosts the SGP’s value. Outside of Game 1, where he finished with 12 points and six rebounds, Holmgren has hit or threatened this line every night.

Holmgren is averaging a double-double this series (13.4 points, 10.8 rebounds), cashing this bet in Games 2 and 3.

He had eight points and 13 rebounds in Game 4 and 14 points and eight rebounds in Game 5.

Nabbing 10 points shouldn’t be a problem for Holmgren. He’s done that in 13 of his last 14 games and is -420 to reach the milestone on Thursday.

The 7-foot-1 power forward is averaging 12.0 rebounds in his last four games, and I expect another strong effort on the glass tonight.

Jokic 2+ threes (-162): Jokic is going to eat up massive minutes and take a ton of shots tonight — that’s a given. Just take a look at what the three-time MVP has done since Game 2:

Game 3: 20 points (0-for-10 from deep), 44 minutes
Game 4: 27 points (2-for-8 from deep), 43 minutes
Game 5: 44 points (5-of-7 from deep), 44 minutes

If we get anywhere near that type of 3-point volume again, this should be a cinch. Jokic is 4-1 against this line vs. OKC and is coming off his best regular season on the perimeter.

He averaged 2.0 makes on 4.7 attempts (41.7%) from deep.

Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions made at 9:10 a.m. ET 05/15/2025.

NHL playoff prop bets May 15: Back Svechnikov and Heiskanen on Thursday night

Thursday’s NHL playoff slate features a pair of elimination games.

The pregame narrative: The Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals topped their respective conferences during the regular season, but are on the ropes down 3-1. Winnipeg is favoured to extend its series against the Dallas Stars on home ice, while the Carolina Hurricanes are a road favourite in D.C.

Check out my NHL prop bets for May 15, which include predictions on Andrei Svechnikov and Miro Heiskanen.

NHL prop bets

Best bet: Svechnikov over 2.5 shots (-163)

This isn’t the most appetizing price, but I’ll make up for it later with a plus-money play on Heiskanen.

Carolina has been dominating Washington at even strength this series, and Svechnikov’s line has been at the heart of it all.

Sebastian Aho, Jackson Blake and Svechnikov have 32:19 of ice time at 5v5 this series, according to Natural Stat Trick. They’ve outchanced the opposition 51-to-28 (65.56% Corsi rate) and haven’t allowed a goal against.

Carolina’s top line hasn’t scored a 5v5 goal either, which is why I’m looking toward a shot prop.

Svechnikov has cleared this total in three of four games and five of his last six dating back to the first round against the New Jersey Devils.

The Russian winger is leading Carolina with 33 shot attempts and 16 scoring chances (quality looks) this series.

Only 10 of those have found the net, meaning we could be in for some positive regression if Svechnikov keeps firing.

Key stat: Svechnikov is leading all skaters with 76 shot attempts this postseason.

Best NHL picks

Heiskanen to record a point (+110): I understand Heiskanen just returned from a 42-game injury absence, but this price seems too good to pass up.

The Finnish defenceman logged just under 15 minutes of ice time in Game 4 and contributed with an assist in Dallas’ 3-1 victory.

Heiskanen’s playoff resume is incredible for a 25-year-old. He has 62 points in 82 career postseason games, including 16 points in 19 contests last season.

We also have to factor in the play of Connor Hellebuyck.

The soon-to-be Vezina winner has fallen apart (again) in the playoffs. He owns an awful 3.48 GAA and .851 SV% in 11 starts.

NHL prop picks made at 4:18 p.m. ET on 05/14/2025.

NHL playoff prop bets May 15: Back Svechnikov and Heiskanen on Thursday night

Thursday’s NHL playoff slate features a pair of elimination games.

The pregame narrative: The Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals topped their respective conferences during the regular season, but are on the ropes down 3-1. Winnipeg is favoured to extend its series against the Dallas Stars on home ice, while the Carolina Hurricanes are a road favourite in D.C.

Check out my NHL prop bets for May 15, which include predictions on Andrei Svechnikov and Miro Heiskanen.

NHL prop bets

Best bet: Svechnikov over 2.5 shots (-143)