Staff Writer

Best long shot picks to win the PGA Championship: Back Keegan Bradley, Max Homa

It’s PGA Championship week, so let’s take a look at some long-shot options.

The latest: Three players — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau — hold odds shorter than 10-to-1 at Quail Hollow. But I’m looking way down the odds board at Keegan Bradley and Max Homa, the latter of which has won at this venue before.

Check out my PGA Championship long shot picks for the major championship beginning on May 15.

PGA Championship long shot picks

Best bet: Bradley to win (+10,000)

In my opinion, only a handful of players have a chance this week.

My best bet for the event is Scheffler (exciting, I know), and the likes of McIlroy and DeChambeau are sure to be popular options as well. That trio holds a combined 34.4% win probability, according to DataGolf.

But we’ll still take a stab at a few long shots, starting with Bradley.

The 2025 U.S. Ryder Cup captain has been playing solid golf this season, with six top-10 finishes in 11 starts. That includes a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March.

Bradley can bomb the ball off-the-tee, which will be important on a long and wet golf course.

He has also been a superb iron player (ranking 23rd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach) and owns a solid short game (29th in strokes gained: around-the-green).

A lot will have to go right for Bradley to win, but I can dig these 100-to-1 odds.

Key stat: Bradley has made three straight cuts at Quail Hollow, finishing T18, T35, and T21.

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Full PGA Championship betting markets

Quick PGA Championship picks

Homa to win (+15,000): Exactly one year ago today, Homa was the No. 9 ranked player in the world … now, he sits 78th with just one top-20 finish in his last 11 starts. Yikes.

But I’m willing to take a flier on the six-time PGA Tour winner for a few reasons:

Homa has made three straight cuts, highlighted by a surprise T12 at the Masters.

He’s picked up strokes on approach and putting in two of those three starts.

He has a spectacular history at Quail Hollow, winning here in 2019 with consecutive T8 finishes in 2023 and 2024.

Let’s hope the friendly confines of this venue help Homa build on his rising play.

Full PGA Championship betting markets

PGA Championship long shot picks made at 9:23 a.m. on 05/14/2025.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets Game 5: Bet on Toronto’s offence to click

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers’ series returns north of the border tied 2-2.

The pregame narrative: The home team has won every game so far, but Florida is favoured on Wednesday after shutting out Toronto in Game 4. The Maple Leafs have scored in bunches at home but are still waiting on a breakout performance from their captain, Auston Matthews.

Check out my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets for Game 5 of the second round, featuring Sam Bennett.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets

Best Bet: Maple Leafs over 2.5 goals (-143)

Toronto was horrible on Sunday night. There’s no hiding that.

The Leafs took four penalties in the first period and struggled to get anything going after that as the Panthers protected a 1-0 lead.

But I’m optimistic they can rebound on home ice for a few reasons:

Toronto has scored 3+ goals in 8 of 10 games this postseason, netting nine total goals against Florida at home in Games 1 and 2.

The Leafs are 11-1 in their last 12 home games dating back to the regular season. They averaged 3.83 goals in those contests and cleared this line nine times.

Sergei Bobrovsky is coming off a shutout victory, which may give bettors pause about backing Toronto on this market. But he wasn’t tested much in the first two periods and had given up three-plus goals in five of six games before Game 4.

The netminder owns a shaky .888 SV% this postseason and ranks 17th out of 26 goalies in MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected per 60.

Key stat: Toronto has cleared this mark in three straight home games against Florida.

Game 5 pick

Bennett to record a point (-112): I’m honestly shocked you can back Bennett at this price.

The physical winger has wreaked havoc on this series from the moment he ran into Anthony Stolarz in Game 1.

In addition to getting under Toronto’s skin, he’s found the stat sheet in three of four games with two goals.

Bennett is second to Sam Reinhart in shots (29), shot attempts (54) and xG (3.63) this postseason, going 7-2 against this line since the start of Round 1.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets made at 11:57 a.m. ET 05/13/2025.

NHL playoff anytime goalscorer picks May 14: Back John Tavares and Evan Bouchard

We’re reaching crunch time in the NHL’s second round, and every goal could be the difference between moving on or going home.

Today’s NHL narrative: The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers meet for a pivotal Game 5 with the series tied at 2-2. Out west, the Edmonton Oilers have a close-out opportunity in Las Vegas against the Golden Knights.

Check out the best NHL anytime goal picks for May 14, featuring John Tavares and Evan Bouchard.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Tavares to score (+155)

Tavares isn’t the flashiest player on the star-studded Maple Leafs, but he’s been one of their most productive this year.

The veteran centre scored 38 goals during the regular season and has been a force this series. Check out how he ranks among Toronto’s skaters vs. Florida, with metrics provided by Natural Stat Trick:

1st in shots (17)
1st in high-danger chances (11)
2nd in chances (27)
3rd in xG (2.14)

Tavares scored a pair of goals against the Panthers in Game 3 and found the net in three of six games against the Ottawa Senators in Round 1.

He’s skating alongside the red-hot William Nylander on the second line, which should get a favourable matchup at home.

Florida head coach Paul Maurice was pairing his shutdown line of Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Jesper Boqvist against Tavares and Nylander on the road.

In the first two games, Craig Berube was utilizing last change to have Auston Matthews’ line match up against that Florida trio.

Key stat: Tavares’ 5.0 xG are the fifth-most among all players this postseason.

NHL prop prediction

Bouchard to score (+375): I already backed Draisaitl to score as my favourite Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop bet, so let’s highlight another Oiler at big plus-money odds.

Bouchard has four goals this postseason, scoring a pair in back-to-back games against the Los Angeles Kings.

He hasn’t found the net since, but he’s firing pucks at a high rate while quarterbacking a lethal power play that features Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.

Check out how Bouchard ranks among defencemen this postseason:

1st in shots (30)
1st in shot attempts (71)
5th in TOI (264:40)
6th in scoring chances (16)

Vegas netminder Adin Hill has struggled mightily this postseason, posting a 3.15 GAA and .876 SV% through 10 starts.

Bouchard is second among all active defencemen in playoff goals per game (0.27) behind Cale Makar.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 11:49 a.m. ET on 05/14/2025.

NHL playoff anytime goalscorer picks May 14: Back John Tavares and Evan Bouchard

We’re reaching crunch time in the NHL’s second round, and every goal could be the difference between moving on or going home.

Today’s NHL narrative: The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers meet for a pivotal Game 5 with the series tied at 2-2. Out west, the Edmonton Oilers have a close-out opportunity in Las Vegas against the Golden Knights.

Check out the best NHL anytime goal picks for May 14, featuring John Tavares and Evan Bouchard.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Tavares to score (+205)

Tavares isn’t the flashiest player on the star-studded Maple Leafs, but he’s been one of their most productive this year.

The veteran centre scored 38 goals during the regular season and has been a force this series. Check out how he ranks among Toronto’s skaters vs. Florida, with metrics provided by Natural Stat Trick:

1st in shots (17)
1st in high-danger chances (11)
2nd in chances (27)
3rd in xG (2.14)

Tavares scored a pair of goals against the Panthers in Game 3 and found the net in three of six games against the Ottawa Senators in Round 1.

He’s skating alongside the red-hot William Nylander on the second line, which should get a favourable matchup at home.

Florida head coach Paul Maurice was pairing his shutdown line of Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Jesper Boqvist against Tavares and Nylander on the road.

In the first two games, Craig Berube was utilizing last change to have Auston Matthews’ line match up against that Florida trio.

Key stat: Tavares’ 5.0 xG are the fifth-most among all players this postseason.

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NHL prop prediction

Bouchard to score (+375): I already backed Draisaitl to score as my favourite Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop bet, so let’s highlight another Oiler at big plus-money odds.

Bouchard has four goals this postseason, scoring a pair in back-to-back games against the Los Angeles Kings.

He hasn’t found the net since, but he’s firing pucks at a high rate while quarterbacking a lethal power play that features Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.

Check out how Bouchard ranks among defencemen this postseason:

1st in shots (30)
1st in shot attempts (71)
5th in TOI (264:40)
6th in scoring chances (16)

Vegas netminder Adin Hill has struggled mightily this postseason, posting a 3.15 GAA and .876 SV% through 10 starts.

Bouchard is second among all active defencemen in playoff goals per game (0.27) behind Cale Makar.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 11:49 a.m. ET on 05/14/2025.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 5: Bet on Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid

The Minnesota Timberwolves can punch their Western Conference finals ticket with a win over the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Golden State’s bounce-back season will seemingly be undone by an injury to Steph Curry, who is set to miss a fourth straight game. Minnesota is 3-1 at home this postseason and is an 11-point favourite at Target Center tonight.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 5 prop picks for Tuesday, May 14, featuring plays on Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Edwards over 34.5 points and rebounds (-125)

Edwards was slumping to begin this series, but he snapped out of it after smelling blood in the water.

Game 3: 36 points (13-of-28 shooting), 4 rebounds
Game 4: 30 points (11-of-21 shooting), 4 rebounds

Back-to-back 30-point outings have put Golden State on the brink of elimination, and I expect Edwards to come through with another monster performance tonight.

The shooting guard is averaging 27.0 points and 8.1 rebounds this postseason, which puts us comfortably above this number.

He’s cleared this mark in four of his last seven games, including two of four this series.

Edwards is capable of clearing this mark on points alone, and that’s very possible if he continues to shoot with volume.

But I’m also bullish on him racking up a ton of rebounds as he did in Game 1 (14 rebounds) and Game 2 (nine rebounds).

The Warriors are continuing to run a small-ball lineup with 6-foot-9 Trayce Jackson-Davis starting at centre. He’s the tallest player getting meaningful minutes for Golden State.

Edwards isn’t a giant, but his superhuman vertical allows him to contend for any rebound.

Key stat: Since the start of last postseason, Minnesota’s shooting guard has 30+ points/rebounds in 17 of 25 games (13-10 vs. this line).

Game 5 prop prediction

Reid over 1.5 threes (-125): Reid is the type of player teams need to go on a deep playoff run.

The 2023-24 NBA Sixth Man of the Year is averaging 11.2 PPG off the bench, playing elite defence and shooting the lights out from 3-point range.

21-of-48 from deep (48.8%)
2+ threes in 6 of 9 games

Reid is averaging 2.5 makes on 5.3 attempts this series, hitting three 3s in Games 1-3.

Golden State has struggled to defend the deep ball, ranking 25th in opponent 3-point percentage (36.5%) this season.

Reid is 4-1 against this line in his last five games vs. the Warriors.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 10:11 a.m. ET 05/14/2025.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 5: Bet on Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid

The Minnesota Timberwolves can punch their Western Conference finals ticket with a win over the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Golden State’s bounce-back season will seemingly be undone by an injury to Steph Curry, who is set to miss a fourth straight game. Minnesota is 3-1 at home this postseason and is an 11-point favourite at Target Center tonight.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 5 prop picks for Tuesday, May 14, featuring plays on Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Edwards over 33.5 points and rebounds (-121)

Edwards was slumping to begin this series, but he snapped out of it after smelling blood in the water.

Game 3: 36 points (13-of-28 shooting), 4 rebounds
Game 4: 30 points (11-of-21 shooting), 4 rebounds

Back-to-back 30-point outings have put Golden State on the brink of elimination, and I expect Edwards to come through with another monster performance tonight.

The shooting guard is averaging 27.0 points and 8.1 rebounds this postseason, which puts us comfortably above this number.

He’s cleared this mark in five of his last seven games, including three of four this series.

Edwards is capable of clearing this mark on points alone, and that’s very possible if he continues to shoot with volume.

But I’m also bullish on him racking up a ton of rebounds as he did in Game 1 (14 rebounds) and Game 2 (nine rebounds).

The Warriors are continuing to run a small-ball lineup with 6-foot-9 Trayce Jackson-Davis starting at centre. He’s the tallest player getting meaningful minutes for Golden State.

Edwards isn’t a giant, but his superhuman vertical allows him to contend for any rebound.

Key stat: Since the start of last postseason, Minnesota’s shooting guard has 30+ points/rebounds in 17 of 25 games (14-9 vs. this line).

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Game 5 prop prediction

Reid over 1.5 threes (-125): Reid is the type of player teams need to go on a deep playoff run.

The 2023-24 NBA Sixth Man of the Year is averaging 11.2 PPG off the bench, playing elite defence and shooting the lights out from 3-point range.

21-of-48 from deep (48.8%)
2+ threes in 6 of 9 games

Reid is averaging 2.5 makes on 5.3 attempts this series, hitting three 3s in Games 1-3.

Golden State has struggled to defend the deep ball, ranking 25th in opponent 3-point percentage (36.5%) this season.

Reid is 4-1 against this line in his last five games vs. the Warriors.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 10:11 a.m. ET 05/14/2025.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop picks Game 5: Back Leon Draisaitl, fade Tomas Hertl on Wednesday

The Edmonton Oilers can advance with a road win over the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Vegas, down 3-1 after getting blanked for the first time in the playoffs, is a slight favourite with its season on the line. A victory for Edmonton would mark the club’s third trip to the Western Conference finals in four years.

Check out my Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop picks on Leon Draisaitl and Thomas Hertl for Game 5 on May 14.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights picks

Best bet: Draisaitl to score (+115)

Few players rise to the occasion like Draisaitl.

The German has five goals this postseason and 46 goals in 84 career playoff games.

That puts him ninth all-time in postseason goals per game (0.548), ahead of names like Pavel Bure, Jari Kurri and Brett Hull.

Draisaitl scored in both road games to open this series and has found the net in four of five contests away from home.

Riding shotgun with Connor McDavid certainly helps. McDavid leads all postseason skaters with 14 assists.

Edmonton’s top line of McDavid, Draisaitl and Corey Perry has dominated this series at 5v5.

They own a 61.82% Corsi rate (chances allowed divided by chances created), according to Natural Stat Trick, and have outscored the opposition 4-2.

Key stat: Draisaitl has scored in four of his last six games against Vegas.

Game 5 prop prediction

Hertl to not record a point (-125): The Golden Knights have gotten caved in at 5v5 this series, which will ultimately be their undoing, barring an unlikely comeback.

Vegas has been outscored 13-7 at even strength, and Hertl has been one of many Golden Knights struggling to produce.

The Czech winger has been shuffled around the Golden Knights’ lineup this series and has nothing to show for it, logging zero points and 10 shots in four games.

He’s now been held pointless in six straight games and seven of his last eight dating back to the first round against the Minnesota Wild.

Hertl does play on the top power-play unit, but that group is also in a rut, going 2-for-12 this series.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop picks made at 4:20 p.m. ET 05/13/2025.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop picks Game 5: Back Leon Draisaitl, fade Tomas Hertl on Wednesday

The Edmonton Oilers can advance with a road win over the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Vegas, down 3-1 after getting blanked for the first time in the playoffs, is a slight favourite with its season on the line. A victory for Edmonton would mark the club’s third trip to the Western Conference finals in four years.

Check out my Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop picks on Leon Draisaitl and Thomas Hertl for Game 5 on May 14.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights picks

Best bet: Draisaitl to score (+120)

Few players rise to the occasion like Draisaitl.

The German has five goals this postseason and 46 goals in 84 career playoff games.

That puts him ninth all-time in postseason goals per game (0.548), ahead of names like Pavel Bure, Jari Kurri and Brett Hull.

Draisaitl scored in both road games to open this series and has found the net in four of five contests away from home.

Riding shotgun with Connor McDavid certainly helps. McDavid leads all postseason skaters with 14 assists.

Edmonton’s top line of McDavid, Draisaitl and Corey Perry has dominated this series at 5v5.

They own a 61.82% Corsi rate (chances allowed divided by chances created), according to Natural Stat Trick, and have outscored the opposition 4-2.

Key stat: Draisaitl has scored in four of his last six games against Vegas.

Embed: #113732

Game 5 prop prediction

Hertl to not record a point (+100): The Golden Knights have gotten caved in at 5v5 this series, which will ultimately be their undoing, barring an unlikely comeback.

Vegas has been outscored 13-7 at even strength, and Hertl has been one of many Golden Knights struggling to produce.

The Czech winger has been shuffled around the Golden Knights’ lineup this series and has nothing to show for it, logging zero points and 10 shots in four games.

He’s now been held pointless in six straight games and seven of his last eight dating back to the first round against the Minnesota Wild.

Hertl does play on the top power-play unit, but that group is also in a rut, going 2-for-12 this series.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop picks made at 4:20 p.m. ET 05/13/2025.

PGA Championship picks and predictions: Back Scheffler, Cantlay and Schauffele in second major of 2025

The PGA Championship heads to a familiar spot this week at Quail Hollow.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler is coming off a dominant win and looks to add a third major championship to his resume — and the first at a course not named Augusta National. He’s my best bet to win, but will have to beat a loaded field, headlined by Rory McIlroy.

Check out my PGA Championship picks featuring Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele.

PGA Championship picks

Full PGA Championship betting markets

Best bet: Scheffler to win (+450)

Sometimes you have to bet the chalk.

Scheffler boat-raced the field at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, winning by eight strokes and tying the lowest aggregate score for a 72-hole course in PGA TOUR history (-31).

I typically wouldn’t put much stock into that tournament, but believe it matters in Scheffler’s case.

The World No. 1 lifted nine trophies last season and had yet to win in 2025. He was still a force to be reckoned with, though:

Top 25 in all 8 starts
Top 10 in 5 of 8 starts
Top 5 in three of 8 starts
Second in strokes gained behind McIlroy

Getting back into the winner’s circle in such dominant fashion has to be great for Scheffler’s confidence heading into Quail Hollow, a course that should perfectly suit his game.

Playing at a beastly 7,558 yards, the Charlotte venue places a heavy emphasis on strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: off-the-tee.

Scheffler ranks first and 10th in this field in those categories over the last three months, according to DataGolf.

Key stat: Scheffler has six top-four finishes and two wins in his last 13 major championship starts.

Golf picks

Cantlay to win (+3,300) & top-20 finish (+130): Cantlay has under-indexed at major championships for far too long, and I say the buck stops this week.

The eight-time PGA Tour winner ranks sixth in SG: APP and 17th in SG: OTT in the last three months. He has three top-five finishes this season and logged a T4 at the Truist Championship last week.

Cantlay has also done a little better at majors recently, with five top-20 finishes in his last 10 starts. That includes a career-best T3 at the U.S. Open last year.

Full PGA Championship betting markets

Schauffele top-20 finish (-125): I haven’t seen enough upside from Schauffele to think he can win this week, but I’m very bullish on another top-20 major finish.

The reigning champion has 12 straight top-20 finishes at majors. That’s the longest streak in the world.

He has four straight top-20 finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T8 at the Masters.

Schauffele has three straight top-20 finishes at Quail Hollow, including back-to-back runners-up in 2023 and 2024.

The 31-year-old has cashed this bet in 24 of 31 major starts. That 77% hit rate well exceeds the 55.56% implied probability of this wager.

PGA Championship picks made at 2:59 p.m. on 05/13/2025.

PGA Championship picks and predictions: Back Scheffler, Cantlay and Schauffele in second major of 2025

The PGA Championship heads to a familiar spot this week at Quail Hollow.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler is coming off a dominant win and looks to add a third major championship to his resume — and the first at a course not named Augusta National. He’s my best bet to win, but will have to beat a loaded field, headlined by Rory McIlroy.

Check out my PGA Championship picks featuring Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele.

PGA Championship picks

Best bet: Scheffler to win (+500)

Sometimes you have to bet the chalk.

Scheffler boat-raced the field at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, winning by eight strokes and tying the lowest aggregate score for a 72-hole course in PGA TOUR history (-31).

I typically wouldn’t put much stock into that tournament, but believe it matters in Scheffler’s case.

The World No. 1 lifted nine trophies last season and had yet to win in 2025. He was still a force to be reckoned with, though:

Top 25 in all 8 starts
Top 10 in 5 of 8 starts
Top 5 in three of 8 starts
Second in strokes gained behind McIlroy

Getting back into the winner’s circle in such dominant fashion has to be great for Scheffler’s confidence heading into Quail Hollow, a course that should perfectly suit his game.

Playing at a beastly 7,558 yards, the Charlotte venue places a heavy emphasis on strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: off-the-tee.

Scheffler ranks first and 10th in this field in those categories over the last three months, according to DataGolf.

Key stat: Scheffler has six top-four finishes and two wins in his last 13 major championship starts.

Embed: #113727

Full PGA Championship betting markets

Golf picks

Cantlay to win (+3,300) & top-20 finish (+125): Cantlay has under-indexed at major championships for far too long, and I say the buck stops this week.

The eight-time PGA Tour winner ranks sixth in SG: APP and 17th in SG: OTT in the last three months. He has three top-five finishes this season and logged a T4 at the Truist Championship last week.

Cantlay has also done a little better at majors recently, with five top-20 finishes in his last 10 starts. That includes a career-best T3 at the U.S. Open last year.

Full PGA Championship betting markets

Schauffele top-20 finish (-125): I haven’t seen enough upside from Schauffele to think he can win this week, but I’m very bullish on another top-20 major finish.

The reigning champion has 12 straight top-20 finishes at majors. That’s the longest streak in the world.

He has four straight top-20 finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T8 at the Masters.

Schauffele has three straight top-20 finishes at Quail Hollow, including back-to-back runners-up in 2023 and 2024.

The 31-year-old has cashed this bet in 24 of 31 major starts. That 77% hit rate well exceeds the 55.56% implied probability of this wager.

PGA Championship picks made at 2:59 p.m. on 05/13/2025.