The PGA Championship heads to a familiar spot this week at Quail Hollow.
The latest: Scottie Scheffler is coming off a dominant win and looks to add a third major championship to his resume — and the first at a course not named Augusta National. He’s my best bet to win, but will have to beat a loaded field, headlined by Rory McIlroy.
Check out my PGA Championship picks featuring Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele.
PGA Championship picks
Best bet: Scheffler to win (+500)
Sometimes you have to bet the chalk.
Scheffler boat-raced the field at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, winning by eight strokes and tying the lowest aggregate score for a 72-hole course in PGA TOUR history (-31).
I typically wouldn’t put much stock into that tournament, but believe it matters in Scheffler’s case.
The World No. 1 lifted nine trophies last season and had yet to win in 2025. He was still a force to be reckoned with, though:
- Top 25 in all 8 starts
- Top 10 in 5 of 8 starts
- Top 5 in three of 8 starts
- Second in strokes gained behind McIlroy
Getting back into the winner’s circle in such dominant fashion has to be great for Scheffler’s confidence heading into Quail Hollow, a course that should perfectly suit his game.
Playing at a beastly 7,558 yards, the Charlotte venue places a heavy emphasis on strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: off-the-tee.
Scheffler ranks first and 10th in this field in those categories over the last three months, according to DataGolf.
Key stat: Scheffler has six top-four finishes and two wins in his last 13 major championship starts.
Full PGA Championship betting markets
Golf picks
Cantlay to win (+3,300) & top-20 finish (+125): Cantlay has under-indexed at major championships for far too long, and I say the buck stops this week.
The eight-time PGA Tour winner ranks sixth in SG: APP and 17th in SG: OTT in the last three months. He has three top-five finishes this season and logged a T4 at the Truist Championship last week.
Cantlay has also done a little better at majors recently, with five top-20 finishes in his last 10 starts. That includes a career-best T3 at the U.S. Open last year.
Full PGA Championship betting markets
Schauffele top-20 finish (-125): I haven’t seen enough upside from Schauffele to think he can win this week, but I’m very bullish on another top-20 major finish.
- The reigning champion has 12 straight top-20 finishes at majors. That’s the longest streak in the world.
- He has four straight top-20 finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T8 at the Masters.
- Schauffele has three straight top-20 finishes at Quail Hollow, including back-to-back runners-up in 2023 and 2024.
The 31-year-old has cashed this bet in 24 of 31 major starts. That 77% hit rate well exceeds the 55.56% implied probability of this wager.
PGA Championship picks made at 2:59 p.m. on 05/13/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.