Staff Writer

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets Game 5: Bet on Toronto’s offence to click, Matthews to rack up shots

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers’ series returns north of the border tied 2-2.

The pregame narrative: The home team has won every game so far, but Florida is favoured on Wednesday after shutting out Toronto in Game 4. The Maple Leafs have scored in bunches at home but are still waiting on a breakout performance from their captain, Auston Matthews.

Check out my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets for Game 5 of the second round, featuring Matthews and Sam Bennett.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets

Best Bet: Maple Leafs over 2.5 goals (-137)

Toronto was horrible on Sunday night. There’s no hiding that.

The Leafs took four penalties in the first period and struggled to get anything going after that as the Panthers protected a 1-0 lead.

But I’m optimistic they can rebound on home ice for a few reasons:

Toronto has scored 3+ goals in 8 of 10 games this postseason, netting nine total goals against Florida at home in Games 1 and 2.

The Leafs are 11-1 in their last 12 home games dating back to the regular season. They averaged 3.83 goals in those contests and cleared this line nine times.

Sergei Bobrovsky is coming off a shutout victory, which may give bettors pause about backing Toronto on this market. But he wasn’t tested much in the first two periods and had given up three-plus goals in five of six games before Game 4.

The netminder owns a shaky .888 SV% this postseason and ranks 17th out of 26 goalies in MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected per 60.

Key stat: Toronto has cleared this mark in three straight home games against Florida.

Embed: #113717

Game 5 picks

Matthews over 3.5 shots on goal (-110): I would love to back Matthews to score on Wednesday, but I need to see a puck go in the net first.

Toronto’s captain has been doing a lot of things right, playing great defence and taking a ton of shots.

He ranks second among all playoff skaters in shot attempts this postseason (75), netting out to 7.5 per game.

The problem? Only 35 of those have hit the net. Matthews has three-plus shots in seven straight games, but has gone 2-5 against this line.

I’ll choose to take a glass-half-full approach here, though, and bank on some positive regression.

Bennett to record a point (-113): I’m honestly shocked you can back Bennett at this price.

The physical winger has wreaked havoc on this series from the moment he ran into Anthony Stolarz in Game 1.

In addition to getting under Toronto’s skin, he’s found the stat sheet in three of four games with two goals.

Bennett is second to Sam Reinhart in shots (29), shot attempts (54) and xG (3.63) this postseason, going 7-2 against this line since the start of Round 1.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets made at 11:57 a.m. ET 05/13/2025.

Jets vs. Stars prop picks Game 4: Back Thomas Harley, Tyler Seguin on Tuesday

The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets meet for a pivotal Game 4 on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Dallas is favoured to win and take a commanding 3-1 lead after torching Connor Hellebuyck in Game 3. The Jets look to get something out of their Vezina-winning goaltender, who has been horrible on the road this postseason.

Check out my Jets vs. Stars prop picks on Thomas Harley and Tyler Seguin for Game 4 on May 13.

Jets vs. Stars picks

Best bet: Harley to record a point (-122)

The playoff lights are far too bright for Hellebuyck.

In the regular season, the netminder led the league in goals against average (2.01) and was second in save percentage (.925). That was enough to earn him a Hart Trophy nod, and almost certainly, a third Vezina trophy.

But the playoffs have been nothing short of a disaster for Hellebuyck, especially on the road.

The American has an .845 SV% and 3.51 GAA in 10 starts.

He has allowed 5+ goals in all four road games, being pulled from the net three times.

Hellebuyck ranks 24th out of 26 netminders in goals saved above expected per 60 (-0.992), per MoneyPuck.

Dallas’ offence has been strong at home this postseason after getting held to one goal in the very first game. The Stars have scored 19 goals in four games at American Airlines Center since, and I expect another shelling tonight.

Harley seems like the best value to get on the board.

The 23-year-old defenceman is leading the Stars in ice time (27:11 per game) and has points in seven of 10 playoff games.

He’s 5-0 against this prop at home this postseason, and he skates on the top power-play unit (featuring the red-hot Mikko Rantanen).

Key stat: Hellebuyck has allowed 4+ goals in eight straight road playoff games.

Embed: #113714

Game 4 prop prediction

Seguin to record a point (+104): Seguin is another Star I want to target tonight.

The veteran winger hasn’t found his way onto the score sheet this series, but it’s not for lack of effort.

His line with Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene is generating a 67.74% Corsi rate and 72.04 xG rate, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Seguin had cashed this bet in four of seven games against the Colorado Avalanche in Round 1 and ranks sixth on Dallas with 35 chances (i.e., shot attempts) this postseason.

Stars vs. Jets prop picks made at 11:08 a.m. ET 05/13/2025.

Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions Game 5: Bet on OKC to win big behind Gilgeous-Alexander

The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder’s series is now a best-of-three, with the latter having home court advantage.

The pregame narrative: OKC is heavily favoured to win Game 5 at Paycom Center on Tuesday, which would push Denver to the brink of elimination. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played his best ball at home this season and is odds-on to score 30-plus points.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions for May 13, featuring SGA and Jamal Murray.

Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Thunder -7.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Murray 6+ assists (+340)

Thunder -7.5 (-180): The Thunder have been nearly unbeatable at home this season, posting a 38-7 record at Paycom Center throughout the regular season and playoffs.

They lost Game 1 against the Nuggets at home after flatlining in the fourth quarter and blowing an 11-point lead, but responded with an emphatic 149-106 rout two nights later.

I don’t expect another 40-point win, but I’m confident OKC can cover this number.

The Thunder are 30-13-2 ATS as home favourites this season, winning those games by an average of 16.3 points, according to Team Rankings.

They have a +27.4 net rating at home in the playoffs. That’s nearly double the next closest team (Los Angeles Clippers +15.0).

Nikola Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are the game’s brightest stars, but Denver lacks the depth to compete in this matchup.

The Thunder are scoring the third-most bench points this postseason, while the Nuggets are scoring the second-fewest.

Embed: #113703

NBA SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-165): Gilgeous-Alexander has been remarkably consistent against this milestone all year.

32.7 PPG (NBA-high)

30+ points in 49 of 76 starts in regular season (64.4%)

30+ points in 4 of 8 playoff starts (50.0%)

The Canadian scored 33 and 34 points in his two home games this series while shooting a combined 23-of-39 from the field. He does a ton of damage at the free-throw line, too, averaging 8.75 FTA/game this postseason.

SGA has scored at least 25 points in 11 of his last 12 games against Denver, reaching this milestone six times.

Murray 6+ assists (-143): Denver’s offence will always run through Jokic, but Murray has been a sneakily productive facilitator this postseason.

He’s cleared this line in seven of 11 games and has been dishing the ball at a slightly higher rate than Jokic against the Thunder.

Murray is averaging 13.8 potential assists per game against OKC, while Jokic is averaging 13.5. NBA.com categorizes a potential assist as a pass that leads directly to a shot.

If he keeps passing at that level, we only need his teammates to make 45% of those shots to cash this wager.

Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions made at 9:50 a.m. ET 05/13/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 12: Back Aaron Judge and Michael King on Monday

Aaron Judge headlines Monday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Judge is amid a herculean start to the season, and is coming off a four-hit game against the Athletics. The reigning AL MVP has an opportunity to do more damage against the Seattle Mariners and Emerson Hancock tonight.

See how I’m targeting Judge alongside Christian Walker in my best MLB prop bets for May 12.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Judge 1+ RBI (+110)

Judge is barreling toward the AL Triple Crown, leading MLB in batting average (.409), home runs (14), and RBI (39).

If that’s not enough to convince you, just take a look at his batted-ball metrics, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

100th percentile barrel rate (25.0%)
99th percentile average exit velocity (95.9 mph)
97th percentile hard-hit rate (57.8%)

Judge’s 100th percentile xSLG (.785) is actually five points higher than his real slugging percentage (.779), so this hot start is nowhere near a fluke.

I looked long and hard at backing the two-time MVP to record multiple bases at -148.

That’s playable, considering he’s reached that threshold in an MLB-best 70.0% of his starts — 23% more than second-place Bobby Witt Jr.

But I’m value hunting, and will instead take him to record an RBI at plus money.

The New York Yankees go up against Hancock, who sports a 5.70 ERA through five starts. The righty ranks in the 16th percentile for xBA (.282), and I trust the bottom of New York’s order to get aboard for Judge.

Key stat: Judge has an RBI in eight of his last 13 games (13 total).

Another MLB pick

Walker over 1.5 bases (+110): Walker is on a heater after a horrible start to the season, and I want in.

First 19 games: .159 BA, .232 SLG, 2+ bases 4 times
Last 19 games: .288 BA, .507 SGL, 2+ bases 11 times

Walker is batting .317 in May, recording a hit in eight of nine games, with three going for extra bases.

Tonight, the Houston Astros face Michael Wacha and the Kansas City Royals, and that’s a pitcher Walker has dominated.

The veteran first baseman is 5-for-8 against Walker with two doubles and a home run.

MLB prop picks made at 1:21 p.m. ET on 05/12/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 12: Back Aaron Judge and Michael King on Monday

Aaron Judge headlines Monday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Judge is amid a herculean start to the season, and is coming off a four-hit game against the Athletics. The reigning AL MVP has an opportunity to do more damage against the Seattle Mariners and Emerson Hancock tonight.

See how I’m targeting Judge alongside Christian Walker and Michael King in my best MLB prop bets for May 12.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Judge 1+ RBI (+112)

Judge is barreling toward the AL Triple Crown, leading MLB in batting average (.409), home runs (14), and RBI (39).

If that’s not enough to convince you, just take a look at his batted-ball metrics, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

100th percentile barrel rate (25.0%)
99th percentile average exit velocity (95.9 mph)
97th percentile hard-hit rate (57.8%)

Judge’s 100th percentile xSLG (.785) is actually five points higher than his real slugging percentage (.779), so this hot start is nowhere near a fluke.

I looked long and hard at backing the two-time MVP to record multiple bases at -148.

That’s playable, considering he’s reached that threshold in an MLB-best 70.0% of his starts — 23% more than second-place Bobby Witt Jr.

But I’m value hunting, and will instead take him to record an RBI at plus money.

The New York Yankees go up against Hancock, who sports a 5.70 ERA through five starts. The righty ranks in the 16th percentile for xBA (.282), and I trust the bottom of New York’s order to get aboard for Judge.

Key stat: Judge has an RBI in eight of his last 13 games (13 total).

Embed: #113685

More MLB picks

Walker over 1.5 bases (+110): Walker is on a heater after a horrible start to the season, and I want in.

First 19 games: .159 BA, .232 SLG, 2+ bases 4 times
Last 19 games: .288 BA, .507 SGL, 2+ bases 11 times

Walker is batting .317 in May, recording a hit in eight of nine games, with three going for extra bases.

Tonight, the Houston Astros face Michael Wacha and the Kansas City Royals, and that’s a pitcher Walker has dominated.

The veteran first baseman is 5-for-8 against Walker with two doubles and a home run.

King over 18.5 outs (+130): New York is doing fine without Juan Soto, but I’m sure it would love to have King right now.

The righty has been lights out for the San Diego Padres since the trade and ranks top 15 in ERA (2.22) and WHIP (0.99) in 2025.

He’s only gone over 18.0 outs once this season, but flashed his workhorse-like ability throwing a complete game against the lowly Colorado Rockies.

Tonight’s opponent, the Los Angeles Angels, is another bottom-feeder.

L.A. has the second-worst batting average (.216) and highest K rate (27.0%) in MLB.

MLB prop picks made at 1:21 p.m. ET on 05/12/2025.

2025 PGA Championship odds and betting favourites: McIlroy, Scheffler top board at Quail Hollow

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are co-favourites for the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

The latest: Fresh off completing the career grand slam, McIlroy heads to a venue he’s dominated. Scheffler, meanwhile, picked up his first win of the season and looks to secure major No. 3. There are four players with odds between 10 and 20-to-1, including reigning champion Xander Schauffele.

Here are the latest 2025 PGA Championship odds for the tournament beginning on May 14.

PGA Championship odds

Full PGA Championship betting markets

Embed: #113679

The co-favourites: McIlroy, Scheffler (+500)

It seems like the sky is the limit for McIlroy now that he’s got a 500-pound gorilla off his back.

With his win at the Masters, the Northern Irishman became the sixth golfer to complete the modern grand slam, joining Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, and Tiger Woods.

That was his third win this season and his fifth in the last 25 starts.

McIlroy is second only to Scheffler in strokes gained: tee-to-green over the last three months. He has won four times at Quail Hollow, most recently in 2024.

Speaking of Scheffler, this seems like a perfect spot to add another massive trophy.

The Texan was “slumping” to begin this season before winning the CJ Cup by eight strokes. I put slumping in quotations because he never finished outside of the top 25 with five top-10 finishes in eight starts.

Scheffler has never participated in a stroke-play event at Quail Hollow, but was a member of the 2022 American Presidents Cup team, which won here.

Golf betting notes

Bet on the PGA Championship

Schauffele has carded four straight top 20s (including a T8 at Augusta) after an injury-riddled start to the season. He has 12 straight top 20s at majors, which is the longest active streak among all players, winning this event and the Open Championship in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau comes in ahead of Schauffele and for good reason. The 31-year-old has four top-six finishes in his last five major starts. He was runner-up to Schauffele at last year’s PGA Championship before winning his second U.S. Open.

Jon Rahm hasn’t truly threatened at a major championship after leaving the PGA Tour. The Spaniard finished inside the top 10 in all but one start on LIV this season, though, and this course should suit his game.

Justin Thomas has two PGA Championships to his name — the first of which came at Quail Hollow — and is in great form to add a third. He has three runner-up finishes this season (including one last week at the Truist Championship) in addition to his win at the RBC Heritage.

Corey Conners (+5,000) holds the shortest odds of the five Canadian golfers playing this week. The Listowel, Ontario native has three straight top 25 finishes at majors and six top-10 finishes this season.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors SGP predictions Game 4: Back Anthony Edwards and Jimmy Butler

The Minnesota Timberwolves have an A-plus opportunity to put the Golden State Warriors on the ropes on Monday.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota picked up a tightly-contested win in Game 3 and is favoured to send this series home with a commanding 3-1 lead. Steph Curry remains sidelined for Golden State, and reportedly won’t be back until Game 6 at the earliest.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Warriors SGP predictions for May 12, featuring Jimmy Butler and Anthony Edwards.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions

Parlay: Under 210.5 points | Edwards 4+ threes | Butler 1+ threes (+280)

Under 210.5 points (-295): I took the under on this exact total in my Game 3 SGP, and it cashed. Unfortunately, Donte DiVincenzo let us down by failing to hit a pair of 3s, but that’s neither here nor there.

Golden State and Minnesota are playing some gritty, defensively-minded basketball this series, and I expect that to continue with the greatest shooter of all time sidelined.

Here are a few reasons why:

The Warriors had the seventh-best defensive rating during the regular season and are seventh among 16 playoff teams.

The T-Wolves were sixth in defensive rating during the regular season and are third among playoff teams.

The T-Wolves and Warriors rank 10th and 13th in true shooting percentage this postseason.

Unders are 7-3 against this number in Golden State’s 10 playoff games. Expect another defensive slog as Steve Kerr bides his time for Curry to return.

NBA SGP legs

Edwards 4+ threes (-120): It sure feels like Edwards has his swagger back after dropping a game-high 36 points in Saturday’s win.

The dynamic shooting guard went 5-for-14 from deep in that game after shooting a combined 3-for-20 in the three games prior.

His efficiency still isn’t great, but I love seeing that type of volume.

Edwards canned four-plus 3s in three of five games against the Los Angeles Lakers and averaged the second-most 3s (4.1) and 3-point attempts (10.3) during the regular season.

Golden State is a strong defensive team, but Edwards should flirt with this line on a nightly basis if he keeps putting up shots.

This feels like a good time to back him to stay hot.

Butler 1+ threes (-295): I’d recommend adding this leg into any SGP you’re making for Game 4.

Butler isn’t a big 3-point shooter, but he’s going to chew up massive minutes in what’s essentially a must-win game for the Warriors.

The small forward has hit a pair of 3s in every game this series, and is averaging 4.8 three-point attempts without Curry (including Game 1) since joining Golden State.

That’s not a ton of volume, but it should be more than enough to cash in a single 3-ball.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions made at 11:00 a.m. ET 05/12/2025.

Celtics vs. Knicks SGP predictions Game 4: Bet on Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson at +290

The Boston Celtics and New York Knicks meet for a pivotal Game 4 at Madison Square Garden on Monday.

The pregame narrative: Boston has led by 20 in every game, and finally converted one of those big leads to a win on Saturday. The Celtics have won five straight games at MSG and are favoured to level this series at 2-2.

Check out my Celtics vs. Knicks SGP predictions for Game 4 on May 12, featuring Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson.

Celtics vs. Knicks predictions

Parlay: Celtics moneyline | Brunson 6+ threes | Bridges over 7.5 rebounds and assists (+290)

Celtics moneyline (-250): Credit to New York for mounting a pair of improbable comebacks, but this series should really be 3-0 in Boston’s favour.

The Celtics have led by 20 in every game and had to go on uncharacteristically cold shooting spells to let the Knicks back into Games 1 and 2.

On Saturday, Boston left no doubt — it took a 25-point lead into halftime and coasted its way to a comfortable win.

Five different players scored 15-plus points, as the squad shot a collective 50.0% from beyond the arc.

The Celtics had won eight of their last nine games vs. the Knicks before this series started, and were an NBA-best 33-8 on the road during the regular season.

Joe Mazulla’s group has championship pedigree, and I expect them to tie the series tonight.

Embed: #113674

NBA SGP legs

Brunson 6+ assists (-235): Brunson is really struggling as a shooter this postseason, despite making some massive buckets in crunchtime.

He’s shooting 43.6% from the floor and 33.3% from deep. But the dynamic point guard still has the ninth-highest usage rate this postseason, and that’s helped him clear this line regularly.

7.5 assists/game
7+ assists in 8 of 9 games
5+ assists in 9 of 9 games

Brunson is leading the Knicks in potential assists per game (12.9), which NBA.com categorizes as a pass which leads directly to a shot. That’s eighth among all playoff performers.

Expecting just under half of those to go in seems reasonable to me.

Bridges over 7.5 rebounds and assists (-130): I backed Bridges on this market in the first two games of this series, and he came through.

Game 1: 6 rebounds, 7 assists
Game 2: 7 rebounds, 5 assists

New York’s swingman fell shy of this mark on Saturday (three rebounds, two assists), but I’m expecting a return to form. Bridges plays elite defence and eats huge minutes for Tom Thibodeau, which in turn leads to plenty of opportunities.

He’s averaging 40.3 minutes a night this postseason and has cleared this line in four of his last seven games, while landing on seven rebounds/assists twice.

Bridges also hit this mark in five straight games to close out the regular season. He’s 9-5 vs. this mark in his last 14 games overall.

Knicks vs. Celtics predictions made at 9:00 a.m. ET 05/12/2025.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks and predictions May 11: Bet on Lewandowski in Sunday’s El Clasico

The fourth and final El Clasico this season headlines Sunday’s La Liga action.

The pregame narrative: Barcelona is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Champions League semifinal, but needs to refocus on the job at hand: winning La Liga. Four points separate Barca from Madrid in the table with four games to play.

Check out the best Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks featuring Raphinha for the match on May 11.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks

Best Bet: Barcelona to win (+100)

Barcelona has won all three meetings between these historic rivals this season:

October 4 (La Liga): 4-0
January 11 (Spanish Supercopa final): 5-2
April 25 (Copa del Rey final): 3-2 AET

The last victory required extra time, but Barcelona largely dominated play. It held 60% possession, out-shot Real Madrid 22-15 (9-7 SOT), and generated 1.85 xG to Madrid’s 0.918.

Given the previous two results — and the fact that this is being played in Barcelona — I’m happy to back the hosts to win.

Hansi Flick’s side just crashed out of the Champions League after losing a nail-biting 7-6 tie to Inter Milan, but the team’s offence showed plenty of promise without Robert Lewandowski.

The Polish striker was subbed on late in the second leg, which is a promising sign that he’ll be ready to play big minutes against Madrid.

As for Madrid, it is dealing with a few key injuries.

Defensive midfielder Eduardo Camavinga and centre back Antonio Rudiger are both out. Madrid has struggled to keep the ball out of its net this season, especially in this fixture.

Key stat: Madrid has conceded multiple goals in seven of its last 10 games.

Go to full La Liga betting markets.

Quick pick

Lewandowski to score (-120): There is some risk here given Lewandowski’s fitness, but Rotowire projects the Polish striker to be in Barcelona’s starting XI on Sunday.

And when Lewandowski’s on the pitch, he’s been unstoppable:

He has 40 goals for Barcelona across all competitions, scoring in both matches against Real Madrid (three total goals).

Lewandowski leads La Liga in goals (24), expected goals (24.2), goals per 90 (0.92), and big chances missed (20), according to FotMob.

The best goalscorer of this generation being priced at plus money in a game like this is too good for me to ignore.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks made at 3:12 p.m. on 05/10/25.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks and predictions May 11: Bet on Lewandowski in Sunday’s El Clasico

The fourth and final El Clasico this season headlines Sunday’s La Liga action.

The pregame narrative: Barcelona is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Champions League semifinal, but needs to refocus on the job at hand: winning La Liga. Four points separate Barca from Madrid in the table with four games to play.

Check out the best Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks featuring Raphinha for the match on May 11.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks

Best Bet: Barcelona to win (+100)

Barcelona has won all three meetings between these historic rivals this season:

October 4 (La Liga): 4-0
January 11 (Spanish Supercopa final): 5-2
April 25 (Copa del Rey final): 3-2 AET

The last victory required extra time, but Barcelona largely dominated play. It held 60% possession, out-shot Real Madrid 22-15 (9-7 SOT), and generated 1.85 xG to Madrid’s 0.918.

Given the previous two results — and the fact that this is being played in Barcelona — I’m happy to back the hosts to win.

Hansi Flick’s side just crashed out of the Champions League after losing a nail-biting 7-6 tie to Inter Milan, but the team’s offence showed plenty of promise without Robert Lewandowski.

The Polish striker was subbed on late in the second leg, which is a promising sign that he’ll be ready to play big minutes against Madrid.

As for Madrid, it is dealing with a few key injuries.

Defensive midfielder Eduardo Camavinga and centre back Antonio Rudiger are both out. Madrid has struggled to keep the ball out of its net this season, especially in this fixture.

Key stat: Madrid has conceded multiple goals in seven of its last 10 games.

Go to full La Liga betting markets.

Quick pick

Lewandowski to score (+120): There is some risk here given Lewandowski’s fitness, but Rotowire projects the Polish striker to be in Barcelona’s starting XI on Sunday.

And when Lewandowski’s on the pitch, he’s been unstoppable:

He has 40 goals for Barcelona across all competitions, scoring in both matches against Real Madrid (three total goals).

Lewandowski leads La Liga in goals (24), expected goals (24.2), goals per 90 (0.92), and big chances missed (20), according to FotMob.

The best goalscorer of this generation being priced at plus money in a game like this is too good for me to ignore.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid picks made at 3:12 p.m. on 05/10/25.