Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.
The Toronto Blue Jays kick off their second half with a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants.
The pregame narrative: Toronto leads the AL East coming out of the all-star break for the first time since 2000, and is favoured to win on Friday behind Chris Bassitt. San Francisco counters with Justin Verlander, who has thrown two no-hitters at Rogers Centre in his Hall of Fame career.
Check out my Giants vs. Blue Jays picks for July 18, featuring Bassitt and George Springer.
Giants vs. Blue Jays picks
Best Bet: Springer to score (-125)
The Blue Jays have been the hottest team in baseball over the last 30 days, posting an MLB-best 17-8 record since June 17 while averaging 5.48 runs per game.
Take a look at what Springer did during that run:
.322/.385/.540 slash line
18 runs in 24 games
12% K rate
The veteran outfielder is seeing the ball well, rarely going down on strikes and hitting for elite power.
Springer is projected to bat second for the Jays tonight and should have plenty of opportunities to get on base against Verlander.
The 42-year-old righty has gotten smacked around this season with a 4.70 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 15 starts. Verlander’s 4.82 xERA tells us this isn’t bad luck, but rather Father Time coming for another victim.
Key stat: Springer is 6-for-16 against Verlander in his career with two home runs.
Bassitt over 17.5 outs (-143): I don’t love these odds but believe Bassitt will carve through a struggling Giants lineup.
San Francisco ranks bottom three in batting average (.217), slugging percentage (.347) and wRC+ (85) over the last 30 days.
Bassitt has logged 6.0+ IP in five of his last seven starts and has a 2.81 ERA at home.
The only person on the Giants with any success against Bassitt is Rafael Devers (8-for-17, 3 HR), who has wildly underperformed since joining via trade on June 15.
Devers is batting .202 with a .326 SLG in 25 games with SF and has reportedly been dealing with a disk injury, which has limited production.
Outside of Devers, San Francisco is 7-for-47 (.148 batting average) against Bassitt with a 34.0% K rate.
Blue Jays picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET on 07/18/2025.
A Wrigley Field matinee between the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox kicks off Friday’s return to MLB action.
The pregame narrative: Boston ended the first half on a 10-game winning streak behind some elite pitching. A red-hot Lucas Giolito gets the ball for Boston opposite Chicago’s Colin Rea, and he should help the Sox carry a lead through the first five innings of this game.
The Sox are averaging 7.0 runs per game during their winning streak, and have the fifth-best offence by weighted runs created plus, wRC+, over the last 30 days (121).
But even if the bats take a few innings to heat up, I’m confident Giolito can keep Boston level through five.
The veteran righty has been spectacular lately, dropping his ERA from 6.42 to 3.36 after logging six consecutive quality starts — four with zero earned runs.
Rea has also been solid, with a 3.86 ERA since June 1, but his underlying numbers concern me. The Cub ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xBA, xERA, and K rate this season.
Anthony over 0.5 hits (-200): If you’re looking for a value play on AL Rookie of the Year candidates, Anthony might be your man.
The 21-year-old was called up on June 9 and has found his footing after a slow start. Check out his numbers over the last 30 days:
.321 batting average
.291 xBA
60% hard-hit rate
1+ hit in 17 of 23 games
Anthony will have a platoon advantage against Rea tonight, who has allowed a .301/.350./530 slash line to left-hitting batters.
Armstrong over 0.5 hits (-177): Crow-Armstrong has broken out in his sophomore season, and is the most valuable outfielder in the NL by fWAR (4.9) coming out of the all-star break.
The left-batting outfielder has a platoon advantage against Giolito and does his best work at home:
Splits vs. RHP: .301/.339/.613
Splits at home: .301/.344/.572
You could back PCA to go over 1.5 bases (+130), which would balloon this parlay’s value all the way to +525. But I’ll just opt for him to record a knock for simplicity’s sake.
Crow-Armstrong’s eighth percentile walk rate and first percentile chase rate tell us he’s a free swinger, which is perfect for this wager.
Red Sox vs. Cubs predictions made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 07/17/2025.
The second half of the MLB season begins on Friday with all 30 teams in action.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Detroit Tigers lead baseball with 59 wins coming out of the all-star break, and their offence has an A+ matchup against lefty Patrick Corbin. Elsewhere, the Baltimore Orioles should have a pitching advantage against their divisional rival Tampa Bay Rays.
Tarik Skubal and elite pitching might be the first things you associate with the Tigers.
But Detroit’s offence has been amazing all season, and that’s the main reason why the team is playing at a 97-win pace.
Detroit is averaging 4.97 runs per game, the sixth-most in MLB. It is also averaging 5.15 runs per game on the road (fourth-most).
The Tigers rank top 10 in batting average (.252), OPS (.749), and wRC+ (110).
They do most of their damage against left-handed pitching: Third in batting average (.264) and wRC+ (116), fourth in OPS (.779).
Corbin has been one of MLB’s premier punching bags over the past four years, owning an ERA above 5.20 from 2021-2024.
The southpaw has held up surprisingly well for the Texas Rangers this season (4.15 ERA), but I have to believe the crash-and-burn is coming soon — and ideally, starting on Friday.
Corbin has a .336 xBA in his last five starts while surrendering a 44% hard-hit rate. Detroit should be all over his subpar offerings at Globe Life Field.
Key stat: Texas’ opponents have scored 4+ runs in each of Corbin’s last five starts, going over 4.5 runs three times.
Quick picks
Orioles F5 +0.5 (-130): Backing a team nine games under .500 with a -90 run differential might seem silly, but give me a chance to explain.
Charlie Morton is on the mound for Baltimore, and he’s gotten better and better as the season has progressed:
April: 9.26 ERA
May: 3.98 ERA
June: 2.88 ERA
July: 2.38 ERA
The veteran righty has been straight up dealing since the start of June (2.72 ERA, 2.48 FIP, .223 xBA), with Baltimore going 4-3 against this line in those appearances.
Morton faced the Rays during this stretch and held them to one earned run on six hits in 6.0 innings.
Tampa Bay counters with Taj Bradley, who’s been hit hard by Baltimore over two starts this year (12 runs in 6.2 IP).
The second half of the MLB season begins on Friday with all 30 teams in action.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Detroit Tigers lead baseball with 59 wins coming out of the all-star break, and their offence has an A+ matchup against lefty Patrick Corbin. Elsewhere, the Baltimore Orioles should have a pitching advantage against their divisional rival Tampa Bay Rays.
Check out my top MLB best bets for July 18.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Tigers over 4.5 runs (-106)
Tarik Skubal and elite pitching might be the first things you associate with the Tigers.
But Detroit’s offence has been amazing all season, and that’s the main reason why the team is playing at a 97-win pace.
Detroit is averaging 4.97 runs per game, the sixth-most in MLB. It is also averaging 5.15 runs per game on the road (fourth-most).
The Tigers rank top 10 in batting average (.252), OPS (.749), and wRC+ (110).
They do most of their damage against left-handed pitching: Third in batting average (.264) and wRC+ (116), fourth in OPS (.779).
Corbin has been one of MLB’s premier punching bags over the past four years, owning an ERA above 5.20 from 2021-2024.
The southpaw has held up surprisingly well for the Texas Rangers this season (4.15 ERA), but I have to believe the crash-and-burn is coming soon — and ideally, starting on Friday.
Corbin has a .336 xBA in his last five starts while surrendering a 44% hard-hit rate. Detroit should be all over his subpar offerings at Globe Life Field.
Key stat: Texas’ opponents have scored 4+ runs in each of Corbin’s last five starts, going over 4.5 runs three times.
Orioles F5 ML tie no bet (-103): Backing a team nine games under .500 with a -90 run differential might seem silly, but give me a chance to explain.
Charlie Morton is on the mound for Baltimore, and he’s gotten better and better as the season has progressed:
April: 9.26 ERA
May: 3.98 ERA
June: 2.88 ERA
July: 2.38 ERA
The veteran righty has been straight up dealing since the start of June (2.72 ERA, 2.48 FIP, .223 xBA), with Baltimore going 3-3-1 on the F5 moneyline in those appearances.
Morton faced the Rays during this stretch and held them to one earned run on six hits in 6.0 innings.
Tampa Bay counters with Taj Bradley, who’s been hit hard by Baltimore over two starts this year (12 runs in 6.2 IP).
Dustin Poirier makes his final trip into the octagon on Saturday for a trilogy fight against Max Holloway at UFC 319.
The pre-fight narrative: Poirier has beaten Holloway twice before, but the Diamond is an underdog in his swan song with the “BMF” belt on the line. In the co-main event, a red-hot Roman Kopylov looks to jump further up the middleweight rankings in his bout against Paulo Costa.
Check out my UFC 318 predictions for the July 19 event in New Orleans.
UFC 318 predictions overview
UFC 318 predictions
Odds
Holloway to win
-139
Kopylov to win by finish
+250
UFC 318 predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 07/17/25.
I don’t love these odds, but I do love Holloway’s chances of sending Poirier into retirement with a loss.
“Blessed” has a 5-2 record since 2020. His losses came against Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria, and those are two of the best ever, so I can’t fault him for that.
Holloway’s last two victories were decisive finishes against Justin Gaethje and The Korean Zombie.
He outstruck that pair by a combined 256 significant strikes to 137, and all signs point to this being another brawl. That should play into Holloway’s favour.
Holloway lands a blistering 7.16 significant strikes per minute, according to UFC.com.
Poirier isn’t far behind, landing 5.3 significant strikes per minute.
Each of the Diamond’s last five bouts has ended via finish (2-3 record).
Poirier is going to leave everything on the line and will surely be hunting for a KO. That said, Holloway has some of the best conditioning and stamina in the promotion and should be able to go blow-for-blow in a fast-paced fight.
Key stat: Holloway has the fourth-best striking differential (2.44 per minute) in featherweight history.
Quick pick
Kopylov to win via finish (+290): Costa was once a rising star in the middleweight division, but those days are long gone.
The Brazilian is 1-4 from 2020 onwards, losing to big names Israel Adesanya, Marvin Vettori, Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland.
He’s only been knocked out once in his career — by Israel Adesanya at UFC 253 — so it might seem hard to get behind Kopylov to win via finish.
But I think fireworks are coming in the co-main event.
Kopylov has won six of his last seven fights, and five of those victories have been via knockout.
The Russian has been a fighter his whole life, training in martial arts since the age of nine. He’s an elite striker and grappler and is by far the more active fighter of the two, which holds a lot of weight in my book.
Costa has only fought twice since August 2022 (both losses) while Kopylov has seven in the same timespan. Ring rust could be a factor for the 34-year-old Brazilian, who isn’t known for being quick on his feet.
This is practically a must-win for Costa, and I expect the veteran to approach the fight with some urgency. That should allow the ever-poised Kopylov to catch him exposed.
Dustin Poirier makes his final trip into the octagon on Saturday for a trilogy fight against Max Holloway at UFC 319.
The pre-fight narrative: Poirier has beaten Holloway twice before, but the Diamond is an underdog in his swan song with the “BMF” belt on the line. In the co-main event, a red-hot Roman Kopylov looks to jump further up the middleweight rankings in his bout against Paulo Costa.
Check out my UFC 318 predictions for the July 19 event in New Orleans.
UFC 318 predictions overview
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
I don’t love these odds, but I do love Holloway’s chances of sending Poirier into retirement with a loss.
“Blessed” has a 5-2 record since 2020. His losses came against Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria, and those are two of the best ever, so I can’t fault him for that.
Holloway’s last two victories were decisive finishes against Justin Gaethje and The Korean Zombie.
He outstruck that pair by a combined 256 significant strikes to 137, and all signs point to this being another brawl. That should play into Holloway’s favour.
Holloway lands a blistering 7.16 significant strikes per minute, according to UFC.com.
Poirier isn’t far behind, landing 5.3 significant strikes per minute.
Each of the Diamond’s last five bouts has ended via finish (2-3 record).
Poirier is going to leave everything on the line and will surely be hunting for a KO. That said, Holloway has some of the best conditioning and stamina in the promotion and should be able to go blow-for-blow in a fast-paced fight.
Key stat: Holloway has the fourth-best striking differential (2.44 per minute) in featherweight history.
Quick pick
Kopylov to win via finish (+290): Costa was once a rising star in the middleweight division, but those days are long gone.
The Brazilian is 1-4 from 2020 onwards, losing to big names Israel Adesanya, Marvin Vettori, Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland.
He’s only been knocked out once in his career — by Israel Adesanya at UFC 253 — so it might seem hard to get behind Kopylov to win via finish.
But I think fireworks are coming in the co-main event.
Kopylov has won six of his last seven fights, and five of those victories have been via knockout.
The Russian has been a fighter his whole life, training in martial arts since the age of nine. He’s an elite striker and grappler and is by far the more active fighter of the two, which holds a lot of weight in my book.
Costa has only fought twice since August 2022 (both losses) while Kopylov has seven in the same timespan. Ring rust could be a factor for the 34-year-old Brazilian, who isn’t known for being quick on his feet.
This is practically a must-win for Costa, and I expect the veteran to approach the fight with some urgency. That should allow the ever-poised Kopylov to catch him exposed.
The Open Championship begins on Thursday at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.
The latest: Jon Rahm, alongside Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, are the only three golfers with odds below 20-to-1 this week. I like the Spaniard’s chances of winning the final major of the golf season and have a few other picks as well.
Check out my Open Championship predictions for the 2025 tournament beginning on July 17, featuring bets on Viktor Hovland and Sepp Straka.
Rahm is a perennial threat at the Open Championship, and I say it’s high time he wins one of these.
The Spaniard has gained an average of 2.45 strokes per round in his last five Opens, which is the third-best of any golfer in the field with more than two starts. Check out his finishes in those events:
2025: T7
2024: T2
2022: T34
2021: T3
2019: T11
Rahm’s run of solid form began at Royal Portrush in 2019, and he’s become a much more complete player since then.
I won’t put much stock into his LIV results, but Rahm only finished outside of the top 10 once this year. And he’s logged a top 15 at every major so far, which is nice to see after a disappointing run last season.
As an all-world off-the-tee player with a great iron game and soft hands around the green, Rahm can contend at any venue.
Hitting greens will be paramount, though, and that’s where I think he can separate himself in inclement weather this week.
Key stat: Rahm has the second-best greens in regulation percentage (75.1%) over the last 36 rounds, according to RickRunGood.com.
Hovland to win (+3,000) & top-20 finish (+138): I’m going to put a sprinkle on the following three players to win, and am bullish they’ll finish inside the top 20.
Let’s start with Hovland, who’s heating up ahead of the last major of the season.
A third-place finish at the U.S. Open grabbed everyone’s attention. Since then, Hovland withdrew at the Travelers after three good rounds and finished T11 at the Scottish Open last week.
The Norwegian is gaining the second-most strokes on approach over the last 36 rounds and has five top-10 finishes in his last 12 major starts.
Fitzpatrick to win (+4,500) & top-20 finish (+188): I backed Fitzpatrick to win last week at the Scottish Open, and he came pretty close with a T4.
So why not go back to him amid this hot streak? Fitzpatrick is hitting his irons really well and is gaining strokes consistently off the tee.
European Ryder Cup vice-captain Edoardo Molinari also highlights Fitzpatrick as a player who putts exceptionally well on slow greens.
Portrush is expected to be running around 10-to-11 on the Stimpmeter, which is well below the tour average.
Straka to win (+5,000) & top-20 finish (+200): Straka’s PGA Tour record has been spectacular this season, but that hasn’t translated to major success.
Still, I can’t help but go back to the Austrian, who has been consistent on a week-to-week basis.
2025 non-majors: 16 starts, 13 top-20 finishes, two wins
2025 Majors: Three starts, three missed cuts
Straka is an extremely accurate driver and an elite iron player. That should separate him at the Open Championship, where he finished T22 last year and T2 the year before that.
Ben Griffin to win (+10,000) & top-40 finish (+125): I’ll take a flier on Griffin at 100-to-1 based on his recent play.
After all, he has six top-15 finishes and a win in his last seven starts. In that span, Griffin ranks fourth in average strokes gained per round — ahead of names like Rory McIlroy, Hovland and Straka.
Griffen missed the cut in each of his prior Open Championship starts, but he’s a different player this year. And he’s finished top 10 at both major championship starts in 2025, so I can’t picture the stress getting to him.
Open Championship predictions made at 4:00 p.m. on 07/14/2025.
The Open Championship begins on Thursday at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.
The latest: Jon Rahm, alongside Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, are the only three golfers with odds below 20-to-1 this week. I like the Spaniard’s chances of winning the final major of the golf season and have a few other picks as well.
Check out my Open Championship predictions for the 2025 tournament beginning on July 17, featuring bets on Viktor Hovland and Sepp Straka.
Open Championship predictions
Best bet: Rahm to win (+1,100)
Rahm is a perennial threat at the Open Championship, and I say it’s high time he wins one of these.
The Spaniard has gained an average of 2.45 strokes per round in his last five Opens, which is the third-best of any golfer in the field with more than two starts. Check out his finishes in those events:
2025: T7
2024: T2
2022: T34
2021: T3
2019: T11
Rahm’s run of solid form began at Royal Portrush in 2019, and he’s become a much more complete player since then.
I won’t put much stock into his LIV results, but Rahm only finished outside of the top 10 once this year. And he’s logged a top 15 at every major so far, which is nice to see after a disappointing run last season.
As an all-world off-the-tee player with a great iron game and soft hands around the green, Rahm can contend at any venue.
Hitting greens will be paramount, though, and that’s where I think he can separate himself in inclement weather this week.
Key stat: Rahm has the second-best greens in regulation percentage (75.1%) over the last 36 rounds, according to RickRunGood.com.
Hovland to win (+2,800) & top-20 finish (+130): I’m going to put a sprinkle on the following three players to win, and am bullish they’ll finish inside the top 20.
Let’s start with Hovland, who’s heating up ahead of the last major of the season.
A third-place finish at the U.S. Open grabbed everyone’s attention. Since then, Hovland withdrew at the Travelers after three good rounds and finished T11 at the Scottish Open last week.
The Norwegian is gaining the second-most strokes on approach over the last 36 rounds and has five top-10 finishes in his last 12 major starts.
Fitzpatrick to win (+4,000) & top-20 finish (+175): I backed Fitzpatrick to win last week at the Scottish Open, and he came pretty close with a T4.
So why not go back to him amid this hot streak? Fitzpatrick is hitting his irons really well and is gaining strokes consistently off the tee.
European Ryder Cup vice-captain Edoardo Molinari also highlights Fitzpatrick as a player who putts exceptionally well on slow greens.
Portrush is expected to be running around 10-to-11 on the Stimpmeter, which is well below the tour average.
Straka to win (+4,000) & top-20 finish (+175): Straka’s PGA Tour record has been spectacular this season, but that hasn’t translated to major success.
Still, I can’t help but go back to the Austrian, who has been consistent on a week-to-week basis.
2025 non-majors: 16 starts, 13 top-20 finishes, two wins
2025 Majors: Three starts, three missed cuts
Straka is an extremely accurate driver and an elite iron player. That should separate him at the Open Championship, where he finished T22 last year and T2 the year before that.
Ben Griffin to win (+8,000): I’ll take a flier on Griffin at 100-to-1 based on his recent play.
After all, he has six top-15 finishes and a win in his last seven starts. In that span, Griffin ranks fourth in average strokes gained per round — ahead of names like Rory McIlroy, Hovland and Straka.
Griffen missed the cut in each of his prior Open Championship starts, but he’s a different player this year. And he’s finished top 10 at both major championship starts in 2025, so I can’t picture the stress getting to him.
Open Championship predictions made at 4:00 p.m. on 07/14/2025.
The Open Championship is here, and with it comes the final chance to capture major glory in 2025.
Royal Portrush and Northern Ireland host for the second time this century after its successful re-introduction to the Open rotation in 2019. Six years ago, inclement weather played a big part in Shane Lowry’s win. Mother Nature will surely have more in store for the players this week.
Other factors to consider before making Open Championship bets include course history, player form, and more. Let’s get into it.
Know the course before making Open Championship bets
Augusta National is the only major venue we see every year. With that in mind, it’s a little tricky to nail down what we’re getting from Portrush.
But we’re not fighting in the dark, and there are a bunch of tidbits I’d consider “must-knows” for this year’s Open Championship.
Portrush became the first Open not held on the island of Great Britain when it debuted in 1951. It returned 68 years later in 2019 and plays at a 7,381-yard par-71.
The Dunluce links don’t feature your typical out-and-in links routing after hole five. Instead, there are directional changes off plenty of tees. That means many holes require different shots depending on the weather.
Its location on the coast of Northern Ireland is littered with undulation, endless dunes, pot bunkers, and knee-high gorse. Playing proper shot shapes and trajectories is key to avoiding trouble off the tee and hitting preferred landing zones on greens.
Portrush’s green complexes are extensively contoured, more so than any other course outside of perhaps St. Andrews. The fescue-based greens will run slower than your average PGA Tour venue, heightening the value of lag putting.
Let’s circle back on the danger: Low basins, ravines, thick gorse and cavernous bunkers. No matter how good a player is, they’ll end up in the junk at some point — but minimizing that is key. Strong iron play and a well-rounded short game are prerequisites for success here.
What emerges when you combine the natural beauty of the Old Course, the strategic routing of Cypress Point, and the refined greens of Augusta National?@mattrouches explains how the result closely resembles the Dunluce Links at @royalportrush. pic.twitter.com/MsmmkGi9Mp
Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Lee Westwood, and more all flourished because of accurate driving. That doesn’t necessarily mean bombers have no shot, but you can’t pray for good lies over 72 holes.
Some of the most accurate drivers this year are Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka, Aaron Rai, and Corey Conners.
As for an elite short game? I’ve tracked the best strokes gained: around-the-greens players at the last five Opens. Jason Day, Tyrrell Hatton, Maverick McNealy and Patrick Cantlay all gained more than 0.8 shots per round.
Good ball striking travels everywhere. Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, John Parry, Lowry and Straka rank in the top five for SG: APP over the last 36 rounds.
In an article for Golf Digest, European Ryder Cup vice-captain Edoardo Molinari wrote that he expects the greens to roll at a “10 or 11” on the Stimpmeter — far below the tour average of 14.
He highlights Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith and Matt Fitzpatrick as players who gain over 0.7 shots per round on greens rolling below 11 on the Stimpmeter over the last five years.
Be sure to check in for my Open Championship bets, featuring predictions on Rahm, Hovland and a +8,000 long shot to win.
Making the best Open Championship bets: Mother Nature reigns supreme
The weather can change in a snap at these tournaments, so take this projection with a grain of salt and be sure to check for updates as we inch closer to Thursday.
That said, there is typically a massive wave split at Open Championships. For those unacquainted, that means either the early-late or late-early tee-time will be more advantageous.
This graphic, provided by DataGolf’s “Letzig’s Latest” newsletter, highlights the average stroke discrepancy for the early-late wave (blue) or late-early wave (orange) at every major championship from 2004-2023:
As you can see, seven of the 15 most volatile rounds have been at the Open. The ninth-largest split was at Royal Portrush in 2019, where the late-early wave played 2.4 shots easier than the early-late wave.
Lowry got the short end of the stick, but still managed to win by a whopping six shots — talk about gritty.
At the time of writing, it looks like Friday afternoon will have some blustery winds and rain, while the morning will be relatively calm. That means it should favour those in the late/early wave.
Thursday’s tee times are out, and here are some notable names scheduled in the distinct waves:
Early/late wave: Scheffler, Morikawa, Lowry, Conners, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele
Late/early wave: Hovland, Fleetwood, Rai, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Nick Taylor
One name stands above the rest, and he’s looking for major No. 4 this week. Scheffler has put together a historic run of golf over the last two years, capturing 12 titles, including two majors and an Olympic gold.
Over the last three months, Scheffler has gained an average of 3.09 strokes per round. That’s more than +0.7 shots greater than the next closest player, Rahm.
So, should you just put all your chips in on Scheffler? I wouldn’t go that far.
The World No. 1 has yet to tame the links, finishing T8, T21, T23, and T7 at the Open Championship. Most players would kill for a resume like that, though, and it’s reasonable to say Scheffler has played near his floor at these events.
Here is a list of the top 10 players by strokes gained at the last five Opens (minimum three starts) dating back to Royal Portrush in 2019:
Player
Top 10s (# of starts)
Best finish since 2019
SG: Total
Cameron Young
2 (3)
Second (2022)
2.62
Shane Lowry
2 (5)
Winner (2019)
2.55
Jon Rahm
3 (5)
T2 (2023)
2.45
Collin Morikawa
1 (4)
Winner (2021)
2.11
Xander Schauffele
1 (5)
Winner (2024)
2.10
Jordan Spieth
2 (5)
Second (2022)
2.05
Tommy Fleetwood
3 (5)
Second (2019)
2.02
Scottie Scheffler
2 (5)
T7 (2024)
2.02
Brian Harman
2 (5)
Winner (2024)
1.92
Matthew Jordan
2 (3)
T10 (2023, 2024)
1.85
Stats provided by RickRunGood.com
A noticeable omission from that list is McIlroy, who ranks 16th. He has two missed cuts — including one here in 2019 — and posted two top sixes.
The Northern Irishman is coming off a runner-up finish at the Scottish Open and is second on the odds board this week.
But back to Scheffler, who, like Rahm, Fleetwood and Young, has been knocking at the door without a win.
The Texan has struggled with putting at this event, losing an average of 0.8 strokes per round. Last week at the Scottish Open, he was first in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 64th in strokes gained: putting.
Maybe the slower-than-usual greens at Portrush will help Scheffler out, or maybe they’ll present a new type of challenge. But if he can get the ball rolling, watch out.
Open championship bets: Ryder Cup implications, LIV and legacy
If you want to dig into some narratives, there is no shortage of storylines for this major.
The Ryder Cup is just around the corner, and plenty of spots on both teams are up for grabs.
Keegan Bradley — the American captain — is who everyone is focused on. A win or a high finish could propel him into the top-six points list to automatically make the squad.
Bradley is an accurate driver and has a great short game, but he has missed five straight cuts at the Open Championship. This venue sets up as one that favours his game, so perhaps he can snap that poor run of form.
On the European side, DataGolf projects Rai and Fitzpatrick to be among the golfers sitting right on the bubble.
Both fit the mould for success at Portrush, and the latter is in solid form ahead of this event. I like Fitzpatrick’s chances of having a great week.
Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau headline LIV’s field, and both should be shoo-ins to make their respective Ryder Cup teams.
A win for either player at this event would do a lot for legacy, though, moving Rahm one step closer to completing the career grand slam or raising DeChambeau’s major count to three.
Another name worth touching on is Joaquin Niemann.
The Chilean seemingly wins a LIV event every other week but has just one major top 10 to his name. His diverse shot selection and low ball trajectory should be a benefit at links courses, so we’ll see if he can put it all together this week.
Here’s what we know for sure: Weather might play a factor, but winning the Claret Jug is no fluke. A pure test of golf is coming, and only a well-rounded and mentally tough player will emerge victorious.
The Open Championship is here, and with it comes the final chance to capture major glory in 2025.
Royal Portrush and Northern Ireland host for the second time this century after its successful re-introduction to the Open rotation in 2019. Six years ago, inclement weather played a big part in Shane Lowry’s win. Mother Nature will surely have more in store for the players this week.
Other factors to consider before making Open Championship bets include course history, player form, and more. Let’s get into it.
Know the course before making Open Championship bets
Augusta National is the only major venue we see every year. With that in mind, it’s a little tricky to nail down what we’re getting from Portrush.
But we’re not fighting in the dark, and there are a bunch of tidbits I’d consider “must-knows” for this year’s Open Championship.
Portrush became the first Open not held on the island of Great Britain when it debuted in 1951. It returned 68 years later in 2019 and plays at a 7,381-yard par-71.
The Dunluce links don’t feature your typical out-and-in links routing after hole five. Instead, there are directional changes off plenty of tees. That means many holes require different shots depending on the weather.
Its location on the coast of Northern Ireland is littered with undulation, endless dunes, pot bunkers, and knee-high gorse. Playing proper shot shapes and trajectories is key to avoiding trouble off the tee and hitting preferred landing zones on greens.
Portrush’s green complexes are extensively contoured, more so than any other course outside of perhaps St. Andrews. The fescue-based greens will run slower than your average PGA Tour venue, heightening the value of lag putting.
Let’s circle back on the danger: Low basins, ravines, thick gorse and cavernous bunkers. No matter how good a player is, they’ll end up in the junk at some point — but minimizing that is key. Strong iron play and a well-rounded short game are prerequisites for success here.
What emerges when you combine the natural beauty of the Old Course, the strategic routing of Cypress Point, and the refined greens of Augusta National?@mattrouches explains how the result closely resembles the Dunluce Links at @royalportrush. pic.twitter.com/MsmmkGi9Mp
Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Lee Westwood, and more all flourished because of accurate driving. That doesn’t necessarily mean bombers have no shot, but you can’t pray for good lies over 72 holes.
Some of the most accurate drivers this year are Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka, Aaron Rai, and Corey Conners.
As for an elite short game? I’ve tracked the best strokes gained: around-the-greens players at the last five Opens. Jason Day, Tyrrell Hatton, Maverick McNealy and Patrick Cantlay all gained more than 0.8 shots per round.
Good ball striking travels everywhere. Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, John Parry, Lowry and Straka rank in the top five for SG: APP over the last 36 rounds.
In an article for Golf Digest, European Ryder Cup vice-captain Edoardo Molinari wrote that he expects the greens to roll at a “10 or 11” on the Stimpmeter — far below the tour average of 14.
He highlights Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith and Matt Fitzpatrick as players who gain over 0.7 shots per round on greens rolling below 11 on the Stimpmeter over the last five years.
Be sure to check in for my Open Championship bets, featuring predictions on Rahm, Hovland and a +10,000 long shot to win.
Making the best Open Championship bets: Mother Nature reigns supreme
The weather can change in a snap at these tournaments, so take this projection with a grain of salt and be sure to check for updates as we inch closer to Thursday.
That said, there is typically a massive wave split at Open Championships. For those unacquainted, that means either the early-late or late-early tee-time will be more advantageous.
This graphic, provided by DataGolf’s “Letzig’s Latest” newsletter, highlights the average stroke discrepancy for the early-late wave (blue) or late-early wave (orange) at every major championship from 2004-2023:
As you can see, seven of the 15 most volatile rounds have been at the Open. The ninth-largest split was at Royal Portrush in 2019, where the late-early wave played 2.4 shots easier than the early-late wave.
Lowry got the short end of the stick, but still managed to win by a whopping six shots — talk about gritty.
At the time of writing, it looks like Friday afternoon will have some blustery winds and rain, while the morning will be relatively calm. That means it should favour those in the late/early wave.
Thursday’s tee times are out, and here are some notable names scheduled in the distinct waves:
Early/late wave: Scheffler, Morikawa, Lowry, Conners, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele
Late/early wave: Hovland, Fleetwood, Rai, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Nick Taylor
One name stands above the rest, and he’s looking for major No. 4 this week. Scheffler has put together a historic run of golf over the last two years, capturing 12 titles, including two majors and an Olympic gold.
Over the last three months, Scheffler has gained an average of 3.09 strokes per round. That’s more than +0.7 shots greater than the next closest player, Rahm.
So, should you just put all your chips in on Scheffler? I wouldn’t go that far.
The World No. 1 has yet to tame the links, finishing T8, T21, T23, and T7 at the Open Championship. Most players would kill for a resume like that, though, and it’s reasonable to say Scheffler has played near his floor at these events.
Here is a list of the top 10 players by strokes gained at the last five Opens (minimum three starts) dating back to Royal Portrush in 2019:
Player
Top 10s (# of starts)
Best finish since 2019
SG: Total
Cameron Young
2 (3)
Second (2022)
2.62
Shane Lowry
2 (5)
Winner (2019)
2.55
Jon Rahm
3 (5)
T2 (2023)
2.45
Collin Morikawa
1 (4)
Winner (2021)
2.11
Xander Schauffele
1 (5)
Winner (2024)
2.10
Jordan Spieth
2 (5)
Second (2022)
2.05
Tommy Fleetwood
3 (5)
Second (2019)
2.02
Scottie Scheffler
2 (5)
T7 (2024)
2.02
Brian Harman
2 (5)
Winner (2024)
1.92
Matthew Jordan
2 (3)
T10 (2023, 2024)
1.85
Stats provided by RickRunGood.com
A noticeable omission from that list is McIlroy, who ranks 16th. He has two missed cuts — including one here in 2019 — and posted two top sixes.
The Northern Irishman is coming off a runner-up finish at the Scottish Open and is second on the odds board this week.
But back to Scheffler, who, like Rahm, Fleetwood and Young, has been knocking at the door without a win.
The Texan has struggled with putting at this event, losing an average of 0.8 strokes per round. Last week at the Scottish Open, he was first in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 64th in strokes gained: putting.
Maybe the slower-than-usual greens at Portrush will help Scheffler out, or maybe they’ll present a new type of challenge. But if he can get the ball rolling, watch out.
Open championship bets: Ryder Cup implications, LIV and legacy
If you want to dig into some narratives, there is no shortage of storylines for this major.
The Ryder Cup is just around the corner, and plenty of spots on both teams are up for grabs.
Keegan Bradley — the American captain — is who everyone is focused on. A win or a high finish could propel him into the top-six points list to automatically make the squad.
Bradley is an accurate driver and has a great short game, but he has missed five straight cuts at the Open Championship. This venue sets up as one that favours his game, so perhaps he can snap that poor run of form.
On the European side, DataGolf projects Rai and Fitzpatrick to be among the golfers sitting right on the bubble.
Both fit the mould for success at Portrush, and the latter is in solid form ahead of this event. I like Fitzpatrick’s chances of having a great week.
Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau headline LIV’s field, and both should be shoo-ins to make their respective Ryder Cup teams.
A win for either player at this event would do a lot for legacy, though, moving Rahm one step closer to completing the career grand slam or raising DeChambeau’s major count to three.
Another name worth touching on is Joaquin Niemann.
The Chilean seemingly wins a LIV event every other week but has just one major top 10 to his name. His diverse shot selection and low ball trajectory should be a benefit at links courses, so we’ll see if he can put it all together this week.
Here’s what we know for sure: Weather might play a factor, but winning the Claret Jug is no fluke. A pure test of golf is coming, and only a well-rounded and mentally tough player will emerge victorious.
