A Wrigley Field matinee between the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox kicks off Friday’s return to MLB action.
The pregame narrative: Boston ended the first half on a 10-game winning streak behind some elite pitching. A red-hot Lucas Giolito gets the ball for Boston opposite Chicago’s Colin Rea, and he should help the Sox carry a lead through the first five innings of this game.
Check out my Red Sox vs. Cubs predictions, featuring Pete Crow-Armstrong and Roman Anthony.
Red Sox vs. Cubs predictions
Parlay: Red Sox F5 +0.5 | Anthony over 0.5 hits | Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 hits (+310)
Red Sox F5 +0.5 (-143): Let’s hope Boston’s bats pick up where they left off.
The Sox are averaging 7.0 runs per game during their winning streak, and have the fifth-best offence by weighted runs created plus, wRC+, over the last 30 days (121).
But even if the bats take a few innings to heat up, I’m confident Giolito can keep Boston level through five.
The veteran righty has been spectacular lately, dropping his ERA from 6.42 to 3.36 after logging six consecutive quality starts — four with zero earned runs.
Rea has also been solid, with a 3.86 ERA since June 1, but his underlying numbers concern me. The Cub ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xBA, xERA, and K rate this season.
MLB SGP legs
Anthony over 0.5 hits (-200): If you’re looking for a value play on AL Rookie of the Year candidates, Anthony might be your man.
The 21-year-old was called up on June 9 and has found his footing after a slow start. Check out his numbers over the last 30 days:
- .321 batting average
- .291 xBA
- 60% hard-hit rate
- 1+ hit in 17 of 23 games
Anthony will have a platoon advantage against Rea tonight, who has allowed a .301/.350./530 slash line to left-hitting batters.
Armstrong over 0.5 hits (-177): Crow-Armstrong has broken out in his sophomore season, and is the most valuable outfielder in the NL by fWAR (4.9) coming out of the all-star break.
The left-batting outfielder has a platoon advantage against Giolito and does his best work at home:
- Splits vs. RHP: .301/.339/.613
- Splits at home: .301/.344/.572
You could back PCA to go over 1.5 bases (+130), which would balloon this parlay’s value all the way to +525. But I’ll just opt for him to record a knock for simplicity’s sake.
Crow-Armstrong’s eighth percentile walk rate and first percentile chase rate tell us he’s a free swinger, which is perfect for this wager.
Red Sox vs. Cubs predictions made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 07/17/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.