Avery Perri

Two superstars headline Saturday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Mike Trout has won plenty of MVPs, and Elly De La Cruz has the tools to join him one day. Trout gets a matchup against a pitcher he’s dominated before, while De La Cruz has several factors working in his favour against the New York Mets.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 19.

MLB home run picks

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Best bet: De La Cruz to hit a home run (+550)

Today’s game at Citi Field between the Cincinnati Reds and Mets is projected to have strong 11 mph winds blowing out to centre.

That should help De La Cruz capitalize on his platoon advantage against Clay Holmes.

• De La Cruz is slashing .307/.392/.546 against RHP, hitting 13 of his 18 home runs against them.

• Holmes has given up eight of his 11 home runs at home.

• The righty’s 13.1% HR-to-fly-ball rate is the 16th highest in MLB. He also ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, K rate, and average exit velocity.

De La Cruz hasn’t hit a home run this month, but he’s been seeing the ball well.

The superstar is posting a .313/.389/.417 slash line over 13 games in July, and in June, he hit seven bombs while slashing .344/.427/.656.

The levee is going to break sooner or later for De La Cruz, so why not today?

Key stat: De La Cruz’s OPS vs. RHP (.938) is over 250 points higher than his OPS vs. LHP (.670).

Best HR predictions

Trout to hit a home run (+295): Trout is having a pretty poor season by his standards, but the tides have begun to turn.

The three-time MVP is slashing .286/.446/.592 this month, hitting four home runs in his last nine games.

Speaking of three, that’s how many times he’s taken Philadelphia Phillies starter Taijuan Walker deep. All in all, Trout is 11-for-19 against the righty with a 1.158 OPS.

That’s a good place to start for this wager.

Trout’s expected stats also suggest he’s been severely underindexing. He ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and launch angle sweet spot.

Walker, meanwhile, has struggled to miss bats this year and will be on a short leash after being moved from the bullpen to the rotation.

Philadelphia’s bullpen has the eighth-highest ERA in baseball.

MLB home run picks made at 11:21 a.m. ET on 07/19/2025.

Freddy Peralta and Jackson Merrill headline Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Peralta is having an excellent season with the Milwaukee Brewers and can earn his team a series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. Merrill, meanwhile, has an A+ matchup against a southpaw who gets rocked by left-handed bats.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 19, featuring a fade on Kumar Rocker.

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MLB prop bets

Best bet: Peralta over 17.5 outs (-106)

Peralta isn’t quite in Cy Young contention, but he’s not that far off.

• The 29-year-old ranks top 20 in MLB in ERA (2.66), strikeouts (118), and WHIP (1.06).

• His advanced metrics are also excellent. Peralta ranks in the 70th percentile or better in: xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate and hard-hit rate.

With that said, this line feels a little low, despite that he’s going up against the Dodgers.

Peralta has logged six quality starts — 6.0+ IP, three or fewer earned runs — in eight opportunities since the beginning of June. One of those was against L.A. on July 7th, when Peralta threw 6.0 shutout innings.

Los Angeles has struggled against righties over the last month, ranking 23rd in ISO and 24th in wRC+, and was shut out on Friday by Quinn Priester.

Key stat: Peralta has held this Dodgers lineup to a .212 batting average in 129 combined plate appearances.

Best MLB picks

Merrill over 1.5 bases (+100): Merrill does his best work against righties, but we can expect some lefty-on-lefty damage tonight.

San Diego takes on Mitchell Parker and the Washington Nationals, and the southpaw has been a punching bag.

• 5.12 ERA (5.57 xERA)
• Third percentile K rate (14.7%)
• Third percentile hard-hit rate (49.7%)
• .299/.386/.495 slash line vs. left-hitting batters

Merrill has seen a fair bit of Parker, and the results are overwhelmingly positive. He’s 4-for-5 with a double and an .814 xSLG.

Rocker under 4.5 strikeouts (-112): The Detroit Tigers, Rocker’s opponent, strike out at the fourth-highest clip against righties in baseball.

But Detroit also hits them hard (second in ISO, sixth in SLG vs. RHP in the last 30 days), and Rocker is as unreliable as they come.

• The second-year Texas Ranger owns a 6.39 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

• His 5.98 xERA and .296 xBA rank in the third and fifth percentile, respectively.

• Rocker’s 19.3% K rate ranks in the 29th percentile. He’s gone under 4.5 Ks in three of his last four starts.

Rocker should clear this total if he can work a few times through the lineup. But Detroit’s offence is no joke, and I expect he’ll be pulled fairly early.

MLB prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 07/19/2025.

Shohei Ohtani headlines Friday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Ohtani paces the NL in home runs and OPS and has a great matchup against an unproven arm at home. Sandy Alcantara, meanwhile, has struggled mightily and is worth fading against the Kansas City Royals.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 18, featuring Jackson Holliday.

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MLB prop bets

Best bet: Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (-130)

Ohtani is one of the few players I can comfortably get behind on a bases prop at these odds.

The two-way superstar is barreling toward a fourth MVP award after posting these gaudy numbers through 95 games:

• 32 home runs
• .988 OPS
• 224 total bases

… and that’s not even including the pitching stats.

We all know how good Ohtani is, so let me instead explain why he should get after Milwaukee Brewers righty Quinn Priester.

Priester (3.55 ERA) is enjoying a solid season with Milwaukee but gives up a lot of hard contact (41st percentile hard-hit rate) and struggles to miss bats (25th percentile K rate).

He throws a sinker 43% of the time and a slider 29% of the time. Ohtani is batting .352 with a .957 SLG against those offerings from right-handers.

Key stat: Ohtani’s 2.36 total bases per game are the second-most in MLB.

Best MLB picks

Alcantara under 3.5 strikeouts (+110): Fading a former Cy Young winner on a line this low might seem like a donation, but Alcantara has quite literally lost his fastball since returning from Tommy John surgery.

• He is posting career worsts in ERA (7.22), WHIP (1.484) and K/9 (7.0).

• Alcantara’s fastball run value went from +15 in 2023 to +1 in 2025.

• In the same span, his breaking run value went from +4 to -4.

Tonight, he is tasked with shutting down a Royals team with the fifth-lowest K rate against RHP this season (19.2%).

This isn’t the lineup to “find it” against.

Holliday to score (+115): Holliday is batting leadoff on the road for a surging Baltimore Orioles team against a struggling pitcher — what’s not to like?

Well, maybe Holliday’s .308 season-long OBP. But the young infielder has a platoon advantage against Taj Bradley — he has a .748 OPS vs. RHP — and should make hay.

Bradley has been fairly inconsistent for the Rays since the start of June, with three shutouts and three games with five-plus earned runs allowed.

Two of those games where he got shelled were against the Orioles:

• June 18: 1.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER
• June 29: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER

Baltimore’s lineup has a .324 BA against Bradley in 78 plate appearances. I expect Holiday to cross the plate at least once.

MLB prop picks made at 12:24 p.m. ET on 07/18/2025.

The Toronto Blue Jays kick off their second half with a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants.

The pregame narrative: Toronto leads the AL East coming out of the all-star break for the first time since 2000, and is favoured to win on Friday behind Chris Bassitt. San Francisco counters with Justin Verlander, who has thrown two no-hitters at Rogers Centre in his Hall of Fame career.

Check out my Giants vs. Blue Jays picks for July 18, featuring Bassitt and George Springer.

Giants vs. Blue Jays picks

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Best Bet: Springer to score (-125)

The Blue Jays have been the hottest team in baseball over the last 30 days, posting an MLB-best 17-8 record since June 17 while averaging 5.48 runs per game.

Take a look at what Springer did during that run:

• .322/.385/.540 slash line
• 18 runs in 24 games
• 12% K rate

The veteran outfielder is seeing the ball well, rarely going down on strikes and hitting for elite power.

Springer is projected to bat second for the Jays tonight and should have plenty of opportunities to get on base against Verlander.

The 42-year-old righty has gotten smacked around this season with a 4.70 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 15 starts. Verlander’s 4.82 xERA tells us this isn’t bad luck, but rather Father Time coming for another victim.

Key stat: Springer is 6-for-16 against Verlander in his career with two home runs.

Quick picks

Bassitt over 17.5 outs (-134): I don’t love these odds but believe Bassitt will carve through a struggling Giants lineup.

• San Francisco ranks bottom three in batting average (.217), slugging percentage (.347) and wRC+ (85) over the last 30 days.

• Bassitt has logged 6.0+ IP in five of his last seven starts and has a 2.81 ERA at home.

The only person on the Giants with any success against Bassitt is Rafael Devers (8-for-17, 3 HR), who has wildly underperformed since joining via trade on June 15.

Devers is batting .202 with a .326 SLG in 25 games with SF and has reportedly been dealing with a disk injury, which has limited production.

Outside of Devers, San Francisco is 7-for-47 (.148 batting average) against Bassitt with a 34.0% K rate.

Blue Jays picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET on 07/18/2025.