Shohei Ohtani headlines Friday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Ohtani paces the NL in home runs and OPS and has a great matchup against an unproven arm at home. Sandy Alcantara, meanwhile, has struggled mightily and is worth fading against the Kansas City Royals.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 18, featuring Jackson Holliday.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (-129)
Ohtani is one of the few players I can comfortably get behind on a bases prop at these odds.
The two-way superstar is barreling toward a fourth MVP award after posting these gaudy numbers through 95 games:
- 32 home runs
- .988 OPS
- 224 total bases
… and that’s not even including the pitching stats.
We all know how good Ohtani is, so let me instead explain why he should get after Milwaukee Brewers righty Quinn Priester.
Priester (3.55 ERA) is enjoying a solid season with Milwaukee but gives up a lot of hard contact (41st percentile hard-hit rate) and struggles to miss bats (25th percentile K rate).
He throws a sinker 43% of the time and a slider 29% of the time. Ohtani is batting .352 with a .957 SLG against those offerings from right-handers.
Key stat: Ohtani’s 2.36 total bases per game are the second-most in MLB.
Best MLB picks
Alcantara under 3.5 strikeouts (+123): Fading a former Cy Young winner on a line this low might seem like a donation, but Alcantara has quite literally lost his fastball since returning from Tommy John surgery.
- He is posting career worsts in ERA (7.22), WHIP (1.484) and K/9 (7.0).
- Alcantara’s fastball run value went from +15 in 2023 to +1 in 2025.
- In the same span, his breaking run value went from +4 to -4.
Tonight, he is tasked with shutting down a Royals team with the fifth-lowest K rate against RHP this season (19.2%).
This isn’t the lineup to “find it” against.
Holliday to score (+106): Holliday is batting leadoff on the road for a surging Baltimore Orioles team against a struggling pitcher — what’s not to like?
Well, maybe Holliday’s .308 season-long OBP. But the young infielder has a platoon advantage against Taj Bradley — he has a .748 OPS vs. RHP — and should make hay.
Bradley has been fairly inconsistent for the Rays since the start of June, with three shutouts and three games with five-plus earned runs allowed.
Two of those games where he got shelled were against the Orioles:
- June 18: 1.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER
- June 29: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER
Baltimore’s lineup has a .324 BA against Bradley in 78 plate appearances. I expect Holiday to cross the plate at least once.
MLB prop picks made at 12:24 p.m. ET on 07/18/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.