Freddy Peralta and Jackson Merrill headline Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Peralta is having an excellent season with the Milwaukee Brewers and can earn his team a series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. Merrill, meanwhile, has an A+ matchup against a southpaw who gets rocked by left-handed bats.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 19, featuring a fade on Kumar Rocker.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Peralta over 16.5 outs (-122)
Peralta isn’t quite in Cy Young contention, but he’s not that far off.
- The 29-year-old ranks top 20 in MLB in ERA (2.66), strikeouts (118), and WHIP (1.06).
- His advanced metrics are also excellent. Peralta ranks in the 70th percentile or better in: xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate and hard-hit rate.
With that said, this line feels a little low, despite that he’s going up against the Dodgers.
Peralta has logged six quality starts — 6.0+ IP, three or fewer earned runs — in eight opportunities since the beginning of June. One of those was against L.A. on July 7th, when Peralta threw 6.0 shutout innings.
Los Angeles has struggled against righties over the last month, ranking 23rd in ISO and 24th in wRC+, and was shut out on Friday by Quinn Priester.
Key stat: Peralta has held this Dodgers lineup to a .212 batting average in 129 combined plate appearances.
Best MLB picks
Merrill over 1.5 bases (+104): Merrill does his best work against righties, but we can expect some lefty-on-lefty damage tonight.
San Diego takes on Mitchell Parker and the Washington Nationals, and the southpaw has been a punching bag.
- 5.12 ERA (5.57 xERA)
- Third percentile K rate (14.7%)
- Third percentile hard-hit rate (49.7%)
- .299/.386/.495 slash line vs. left-hitting batters
Merrill has seen a fair bit of Parker, and the results are overwhelmingly positive. He’s 4-for-5 with a double and an .814 xSLG.
Rocker under 4.5 strikeouts (-106): The Detroit Tigers, Rocker’s opponent, strike out at the fourth-highest clip against righties in baseball.
But Detroit also hits them hard (second in ISO, sixth in SLG vs. RHP in the last 30 days), and Rocker is as unreliable as they come.
- The second-year Texas Ranger owns a 6.39 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
- His 5.98 xERA and .296 xBA rank in the third and fifth percentile, respectively.
- Rocker’s 19.3% K rate ranks in the 29th percentile. He’s gone under 4.5 Ks in three of his last four starts.
Rocker should clear this total if he can work a few times through the lineup. But Detroit’s offence is no joke, and I expect he’ll be pulled fairly early.
MLB prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 07/19/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.