Avery Perri

Wednesday’s final MLB game takes place in Texas as the Rangers look to sweep the Athletics.

The pregame narrative: Two lefties battle with JP Sears (5.13 ERA) pitching for the road team opposite Patrick Corbin (3.91 ERA). Neither pitcher is elite, or even average, but the good news for Sears is that Texas simply can’t hit lefties.

Check out my Athletics vs. Rangers predictions, featuring Sears and Shea Langeliers.

Athletics vs. Rangers predictions

Parlay: Athletics F5 +1.5 | Langeliers over 1.5 bases | Sears over 3.5 strikeouts (+320)

Athletics F5 +1.5 (-235): On a surface level, it might seem like Corbin is the superior pitcher in this matchup.

After all, his ERA is 1.22 runs below Sears’.

But there isn’t much separating these two arms. Check out their advanced metrics, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

• Corbin: 4.44 xERA (29th percentile), .276 xBA (16th percentile), 19.3% K rate (30th percentile)

• Sears: 4.03 xERA (44th percentile), .247 xBA (51st percentile), 19.4% K rate (31st percentile)

You could argue Sears has been better, albeit far unluckier, and I certainly think he has a better chance of performing tonight.

Texas has the second-lowest batting average (.216), third-lowest wRC+ (75), and seventh-highest K rate (25.0%) against LHPs this season.

The Athletics, meanwhile, have the eighth-highest batting average (.254) and 13th-best wRC+ (97) against southpaws.

The road team should be able to comfortably cover this line through five innings.

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Langeliers over 1.5 total bases (+133): Langeliers has been firing on all cylinders coming out of the all-star break, and I want in.

• 8-for-19 (.421 BA)
• Three doubles
• Two home runs

The catcher has been dominant against southpaws all season, sporting a .373/.373/.529 slash line. Notice how Langeliers has taken zero walks in 51 plate appearances against LHP — I’m confident he’ll go down swinging.

Corbin has done well to limit hard contact this year, but it’s fair to wonder how long that will last.

He ranked in the bottom 30th percentile for hard-hit rate in each of the past six seasons.

Sears over 3.5 strikeouts (-205): Sears’ 19.4% K rate is nothing special, and his 20.8% K rate against the Rangers over 144 plate appearances isn’t much better.

But this teased-down number should be well in play.

Sears has gone over this line in five straight starts, with five-plus strikeouts in four of them.

He’s faced the Rangers twice this year, logging seven and five Ks while allowing three combined earned runs in 10.2 IP. The Athletics won both of those games.

Athletics vs. Rangers predictions made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 07/23/2025.

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The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees meet for a rubber match at Rogers Centre on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: New York snapped its five-game losing streak against Toronto yesterday with a ninth-inning home run courtesy of Ben Rice. The Yankees are slightly favoured today behind Max Fried, who is pitching opposite Chris Bassitt.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions, featuring George Springer and Aaron Judge.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Over 6.5 runs | Springer over 1.5 total bases | Judge under 1.5 hits (+320)

Over 6.5 runs (-250): I’m expecting fireworks in this series-deciding game. Check out how the team’s offences have performed over the last 30 days.

• TOR: 1st in runs per game (5.67), 1st in batting average (.275), 2nd in wRC+ (119)

• NYY: 2nd in runs per game (5.46), 11th in batting average (.251), 3rd in wRC+ (116)

Fried has had a solid season for the Yankees, posting a 2.43 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP. But his xERA (3.43) is notably higher, and he’s gotten touched up over his last three starts for 10 earned runs in 14.0 IP.

That includes an outing against the Jays on Canada Day, which Toronto won, 12-5.

And I can’t trust Bassitt against the Yankees.

New York has a collective .304 batting average and .513 slugging percentage against the righty over 115 combined at-bats.

This year, Bassitt has allowed 14 hits and seven earned runs to the Yankees in 11.1 IP.

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Springer over 1.5 total bases (+138): Springer has become the alpha dog on Toronto’s offence during this hot streak, batting a blistering .349 with a 1.097 OPS since July 1.

He’s cleared this line in four of his last five games against the Yankees, going a combined 10-for-18 with four home runs.

Springer took Fried deep when they last met on Canada Day and is 3-for-9 lifetime against the lefty with a .303 xBA.

Judge under 1.5 hits (-335): Judge is leading MLB in batting average (.346), but does that really matter if Toronto won’t pitch to him?

The Jays have intentionally walked Judge seven times this year, more than any other team in baseball. And maybe that’s getting to him, because he’s 0-for-6 in this series otherwise.

Judge has gone under 1.5 hits in six straight games and in nine of his last 10.

He’s been walked 10 times in his last six games against Toronto, so I would be shocked if he gets more than three at-bats this evening.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 07/23/2025.

Two of Monday’s three MLB home run picks come from the same game, when the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Houston Astros.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Eugenio Suarez is having a monster season at the plate, and has a platoon advantage against Houston’s Colton Gordon. The same can be said for veteran Jose Altuve, who carries juicy +750 odds to go deep.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 21, featuring a pick on Wilson Contreras.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+300)

This is likely the last week we’ll see Suarez in a D-Backs uniform, as the third baseman has garnered tons of attention on an expiring contract.

The 34-year-old ranks third in home runs (35) and first in RBI (85) and has been doing damage against right-handed pitching:

• Suarez owns a .598 SLG vs. LHP.

• He’s hit 10 home runs in 83 at-bats (8.3% HR rate).

• His .398 ISO vs. LHP is the fourth-best in MLB.

I think Suarez has a couple more home runs in him before the trade deadline, and I’m all over his matchup tonight.

Gordon is a contact pitcher through and through. His 98th percentile walk rate (3.4%) and 30th percentile K rate (19.4%) mean Suarez will almost certainly get something to hit.

And that’s great news with the way the righty has been pitching.

Gordon has given up six home runs in his last five starts and has a 7.15 ERA in July.

Key stat: Right-hitting batters are slugging .547 against Gordon this year.

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Best HR predictions

Altuve to hit a home run (+750): These odds seem very generous with the way Altuve is playing.

The veteran is batting .373/.435/.712 with four home runs in 15 games this month, and now, he has a matchup against the HR-prone Zac Gallen.

• Gallen’s 1.6 HR/9 rate is the seventh-highest among all qualified pitchers.

• The righty ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Like Suarez, Altuve is running reverse splits this season. That means he’s doing much better in righty-vs-righty matchups (.289 batting average, .825 OPS).

Altuve has also taken Gallen deep before.

Contreras to hit a home run (+370): I want to capitalize on the thin air at Coors Field, and Contreras fits the bill.

The St. Louis Cardinals first baseman isn’t a big power bat, but is slugging a respectable .505 vs. LHP this season.

Tonight, he goes up against Austin Gomber, who is getting shelled this season.

The southpaw has a 5.65 ERA and has given up a home run in four of his last five starts.

Contreras is 2-for-5 against Gomber with a pair of home runs.

MLB home run picks made at 1:34 p.m. ET on 07/21/2025.

Shohei Ohtani toes the rubber on Monday when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Minnesota Twins.

The pregame narrative: Ohtani hasn’t pitched deep into ballgames yet, and will have a three-inning cap on his workload tonight, according to manager Dave Roberts. Minnesota starts sophomore David Festa, who has struggled since his callup in June.

Check out my Twins vs. Dodgers predictions, featuring Ohtani and Carlos Correa.

Twins vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Dodgers F5 -0.5 | Ohtani under 4.5 strikeouts | Correa over 0.5 hits (+330)

Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-121): I wish the Dodgers had five full innings of Ohtani, but we probably wouldn’t be getting this price if that was the case.

The two-way superstar has dazzled on the mound in limited action this year, allowing just one run and five hits over 9.0 IP.

Most recently, he struck out four San Francisco Giants over three shutout innings.

I don’t think Minnesota will get anything going against Ohtani, who has a 2.97 career ERA and is touching 100 mph on his fastball.

Dustin May is slated to get the ball to start the fourth, and that could be a problem. The righty has a 4.96 ERA and is battling command issues.

But Minnesota’s Festa is even less reliable, sporting a 6.69 ERA and 5.09 FIP across seven starts since his call-up in June.

I expect the Dodgers to bank a sizeable lead through the first five innings.

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MLB SGP legs

Ohtani under 4.5 Ks (-278): I don’t think this is getting too cheeky in the slightest.

Ohtani has logged 10 Ks in 9.0 innings so far and will need to put together a monster performance to clear this line with his pitch count.

The Twins have a middle-of-the-pack K rate and only struck out at a 16.9% clip in their weekend series against the Colorado Rockies.

Ohtani has held Minnesota’s lineup to a .170 batting average but hasn’t put it down on strikes at a crazy high rate, either.

The Twins have a 17.9% K rate against him in 56 plate appearances.

Correa over 0.5 hits (-180): Adding Correa to this wager increases the parlay’s payout from +155 to +330, which is well worth it in my opinion.

The veteran shortstop has been on fire over the last 30 days, batting .333 with a hit in 16 of 22 appearances.

He’s also batting exactly .333 vs. RHP in that span, so I’m not worried about a platoon disadvantage.

Even if Ohtani can keep him quiet once through the order, I like his chances of getting after May and L.A.’s bullpen.

Twins vs. Dodgers predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 07/21/2025.

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The Toronto Blue Jays welcome the New York Yankees for a pivotal three-game series beginning Monday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has won a franchise record-tying 10 consecutive home games, which started with a four-game sweep of New York in early July. The Yankees are slight favourites, however, with Carlos Rodon (3.08 ERA) pitching opposite Kevin Gausman (4.19).

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 21, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Gausman under 17.5 outs (+112)

Toronto has won plenty of ballgames, but it’s hard to be confident about any pitcher starting Game 1 of a playoff series — and Gausman is no exception.

The righty has fallen off considerably from his 2022-2023 form, when he earned Cy Young votes both seasons.

• Gausman in 2022-23: 3.25 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 11.1 K/9, 132 ERA+
• Gausman in 2024-25: 3.96 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 8.2 K/9, 105 ERA+

This year, Gausman’s 4.19 ERA and 3.87 FIP are the highest he’s logged since 2019, when he played on both the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds.

Tonight, he has to go up against a Yankees team averaging 6.4 runs in its last 10 games.

Gausman has faced New York twice this year, and fell under this out total both times. At Yankee Stadium in April, he gave up six earned runs in 2.2 IP (two hits, five walks). And on July 1, he gave up two earned runs in 5.0 IP (six hits, four walks).

The Yankees have been disciplined in not chasing Gausman’s offerings this year, and I expect they’ll stick to that plan again tonight to drive his pitch count up.

And whether John Schneider wants to admit it or not, games against New York matter more than games against other teams. I expect Gausman to be on a tight leash if his command issues flare up again.

Key stat: Gausman has gone under this line in five of his last six games.

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Quick picks

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+108): Last week, my colleague Jordan Horrobin wrote about Guerrero and how he was due to break out in the second half.

I encourage you all to read it, but I will give a quick overview of some key points:

• Entering the all-star break, Guerrero’s actual SLG (.434) was 84 points behind his xSLG (.518).

• He also owned a 100th percentile xBA (.315), well above his .275 actual batting average.

• Last year, Guerrero posted a .376/.450/.678 slash line from July 19 (post ASG) through the end of the year.

We’re only three games into the second half, but I’m hopeful Guerrero can replicate last year’s post-all-star-break heater.

On Sunday, Vladdy went 2-for-3 with a home run against southpaw Robbie Ray. Today, he faces another lefty in Rodon, and Guerrero has dominated that matchup.

The Blue Jays’ superstar is 9-for-15 with three doubles and a home run against Rodon.

Rodon throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time and a slider 31% of the time. Guerrero is batting .435 (.826 SLG) against 4-seamers from LHP and .500 (.625 SLG) against sliders from LHP.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:49 a.m. ET on 07/21/2025.

Sometimes you have to play the hits. Aaron Judge headlines Sunday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Judge is this generation’s greatest home run hitter, and he has a favourable matchup — and a decent price — against Atlanta’s Grant Holmes. Later on, Jackson Chourio should be able to take one of the game’s legends for a ride.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 20.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Judge to hit a home run (+205)

Judge has the AL Triple Crown in sight, leading MLB in average (.353), while ranking second in home runs (35) and RBI (81).

The two-time MVP has a hit in both games since the all-star break, two singles, and today seems like the time for him to take off.

Atlanta’s Holmes (3.77 ERA) is having a solid season, but he’s prone to the long ball.

• Holmes has a 21st percentile barrel rate and a 46th percentile hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

• His 15.2% HR-to-fly-ball ratio is the sixth highest among qualified pitchers.

Holmes relies primarily on a 4-seam/slider combo, which makes up 70% of his pitch mix. Against RHPs, Judge is slugging .985 against 4-seamers (that’s not a typo) and .618 against sliders.

Judge is liable to go deep anytime he steps in the box, so I think these +205 odds are actually quite generous.

Key stat: Judge ranks in the 100th percentile for xSLG, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.

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Best HR predictions

Chourio to hit a home run (+510): For the second time this month, Chourio and the Milwaukee Brewers see Clayton Kershaw.

The second-year outfielder went 1-for-3 with a single against the southpaw on July 8, and I think he’s capable of doing much more damage.

Kershaw (3.38 ERA) is having a fine season on paper, but his underlying numbers are a little concerning.

• 27th percentile xBA (.263)
• 14th percentile K rate (16.9)
• 14th percentile hard-hit rate (45.5)

Chourio is on a rampage this month, slashing .345 with three home runs and a .937 OPS.

He draws walks at one of the lowest rates in MLB (4.2%, fifth percentile), so he will surely be looking for something to hit amid this hot streak.

And Chourio has also lit up lefties this year to the tune of a .360/.388/.604 slash line.

MLB home run picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 07/20/2025.