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Best MLB prop bets July 26: Bet on Manny Machado, Jordan Westburg to stay hot

The red-hot Manny Machado headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Machado has blasted six home runs this month and has a great matchup against Matthew Liberatore and the St. Louis Cardinals. Elsewhere, fade Hunter Brown against a sneakily competent Athletics squad.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 26, also featuring Jordan Westburg.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Machado over 1.5 bases (-112)

Machado has been one of baseball’s best hitters since the Fourth of July, posting a monster .300/.346/.600 slash line in 18 games.

Machado’s .321 xBA and .681 xSLG in that span indicate he hasn’t been lucky and is actually leaving some production on the table.

From July 4 onwards, Machado has a 66% hard-hit rate. For context, Aaron Judge’s season-long hard-hit rate is 56.5%.

That’s bad news for Liberatore.

St. Louis’ southpaw has a good but not great 4.13 ERA this season, which is right in line with his xERA (4.12). He also ranks in the bottom-35th percentile for hard-hit rate, K rate, whiff rate and barrel rate.

The right-hitting Machado actually has a much higher batting average against righties (.304) than he does against lefties (.249). But his slugging percentage against southpaws (.552) is 82 points higher.

Key stat: Machado is 5-3 against this line since the all-star break.

Embed: #116306

Best MLB picks

Brown under 17.5 outs (+140): There’s a lot to like about Brown, who spots the 10th best ERA in MLB (2.57) to pair with a stellar 0.99 WHIP.

That said, I’m loving these plus money odds on him to throw shy of six innings.

Brown has gone under this mark in back-to-back starts and three of his last five. He should have his hands full against an Athletics team ranking third in slugging (.463) and second in ISO (.219) over the last 30 days.

And this A’s lineup owns a .317 batting average over 65 combined plate appearances against the righty.

He also has a 27.7% K rate in that sample, which tells me he’s not getting through innings quickly with contact.

Westburg over 1.5 bases (-113): Westburg is on a rampage this month, slashing .317/.348/.540 while doing a bunch of damage post-all-star break.

The 26-year-old hit a home run yesterday and a double two days before that. Overall, he’s 4-4 against this line since the Midsummer Classic.

That’s not fantastic, but it is good enough to get my attention, especially when he’s facing the Colorado Rockies and Antonio Senzatela.

Senzatela has a 6.41 ERA, and that’s not just Coors Field tax. His road ERA (6.43) is higher than his home ERA (6.39).

Westburg runs reverse splits, meaning he hits righties better than lefties. This should be a perfect matchup for the streaking third baseman.

MLB prop picks made at 10:59 a.m. ET on 07/26/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers prop picks July 26: Fade Tarik Skubal and Myles Straw on Saturday

The Toronto Blue Jays look for a statement series win over the Detroit Tigers on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto (62-42) officially owns the best record in MLB after winning seven of its first eight games coming out of the all-star break. But the Jays are underdogs today with AL Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers for July 26, featuring a fade on Myles Straw.

Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers

Best bet: Skubal under 7.5 Ks (-163)

The last time Skubal toed rubber, he struck out 11 Texas Rangers on Sunday Night Baseball.

That marked the third time in his last five starts that he’s racked up double-digit Ks, and has him sitting second on MLB’s strikeout leaderboard (164 Ks) to Boston’s Garrett Crochet.

So why fade a man with that kind of acumen?

Because Toronto is on a rampage, that’s why. The Blue Jays have won 20 of their last 25 games and have made minced meat of the Tigers in the first two meetings of this series.

Toronto has an MLB-low 15.8% K rate over its last 25 games.

In the eight games since the all-star break, the Jays’ 12.3% K rate is first, and roughly half of the MLB average.

Detroit’s starters have only managed a combined seven strikeouts in 9.2 IP this series.

Simply put, this is a matchup of good versus great. I don’t want to undersell how spectacular Skubal has been this year, because he ranks second in ERA (2.19), first in WHIP (0.81), and has a 96th percentile K rate (34.0%).

But Toronto hasn’t been fooled by many elite arms this year. Just last week, Robbie Ray — a lefty with a 2.91 ERA and 77th percentile K rate — logged three strikeouts in 4.1 IP.

Key stat: Toronto has faced 25 lefties this year, and all of them have gone under this line (17 of which had four or fewer Ks).

Quick pick

Straw under 0.5 hits (-106): Straw bounces in and out of Toronto’s starting lineup and is slated to hit eighth today because of his strong numbers against lefties and Skubal.

The platoon man is slashing .275/.320/.352 vs. LHP this year, but that doesn’t phase me one bit.

Skubal isn’t your regular southpaw, and Straw is ice cold heading into this matchup. He’s hitless in 10 of his last 16 appearances with a .162 batting average in July.

To be fair, some of those games were solely pinch-hit at-bats, but that demonstrates the kind of player Straw is. The outfielder will likely be pulled from the game once Skubal is done. He only has eight complete games in his last 20 starts.

Skubal’s .191 OBA vs. righty bats is as elite as it comes, and I’m not too worried about Straw going 3-for-9 with three singles against the lefty.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:36 a.m. ET on 07/26/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers prop picks July 26: Fade Tarik Skubal and Myles Straw on Saturday

The Toronto Blue Jays look for a statement series win over the Detroit Tigers on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto (62-42) officially owns the best record in MLB after winning seven of its first eight games coming out of the all-star break. But the Jays are underdogs today with AL Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers for July 26, featuring a fade on Myles Straw.

Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers

Best bet: Skubal under 6.5 Ks (+105)

The last time Skubal toed rubber, he struck out 11 Texas Rangers on Sunday Night Baseball.

That marked the third time in his last five starts that he’s racked up double-digit Ks, and has him sitting second on MLB’s strikeout leaderboard (164 Ks) to Boston’s Garrett Crochet.

So why fade a man with that kind of acumen?

Because Toronto is on a rampage, that’s why. The Blue Jays have won 20 of their last 25 games and have made minced meat of the Tigers in the first two meetings of this series.

Toronto has an MLB-low 15.8% K rate over its last 25 games.

In the eight games since the all-star break, the Jays’ 12.3% K rate is first, and roughly half of the MLB average.

Detroit’s starters have only managed a combined seven strikeouts in 9.2 IP this series.

Simply put, this is a matchup of good versus great. I don’t want to undersell how spectacular Skubal has been this year, because he ranks second in ERA (2.19), first in WHIP (0.81), and has a 96th percentile K rate (34.0%).

But Toronto hasn’t been fooled by many elite arms this year. Just last week, Robbie Ray — a lefty with a 2.91 ERA and 77th percentile K rate — logged three strikeouts in 4.1 IP.

Key stat: Toronto has faced 25 lefties this year, and 24 of them have gone under this line (17 of which had four or fewer Ks).

Embed: #116303

Quick pick

Straw under 0.5 hits (-113): Straw bounces in and out of Toronto’s starting lineup and is slated to hit eighth today because of his strong numbers against lefties and Skubal.

The platoon man is slashing .275/.320/.352 vs. LHP this year, but that doesn’t phase me one bit.

Skubal isn’t your regular southpaw, and Straw is ice cold heading into this matchup. He’s hitless in 10 of his last 16 appearances with a .162 batting average in July.

To be fair, some of those games were solely pinch-hit at-bats, but that demonstrates the kind of player Straw is. The outfielder will likely be pulled from the game once Skubal is done. He only has eight complete games in his last 20 starts.

Skubal’s .191 OBA vs. righty bats is as elite as it comes, and I’m not too worried about Straw going 3-for-9 with three singles against the lefty.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:36 a.m. ET on 07/26/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 24: Fade Severino and back Altuve when Astros host Athletics

Thursday’s five-game MLB slate is on the light side, but one matchup has piqued my interest.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Houston Astros are rolling and face a familiar foe in Luis Severino, who is having a tough run with the Athletics. I’m looking to fade the righty and expect Jose Altuve to lead the charge.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 24.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Severino under 17.5 outs (+100)

Severino has earned the reputation as a workhorse, but he’s not living up to the bill these days.

The hard-throwing righty has gotten rocked since the start of June, raising his ERA from 3.89 to 5.10 over nine starts.

Severino has a 6.94 ERA, 5.92 FIP and 1.67 WHIP in those games.

He went under 17.5 outs eight times. That includes an outing against the Astros on June 18, where he gave up nine hits and threw 97 pitches in 5.0 IP.

And this isn’t the matchup for him to “get right.”

Houston has the fifth-best batting average (.273) and sixth-best wRC+ (122) against RHP since the start of July. The lineup is consistently finding ways to produce even with Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena sidelined.

The Astros own a collective .303 batting average against Severino in 93 combined plate appearances.

Key stat: Severino is averaging 15.4 outs over his last nine games.

Best MLB picks

Altuve over 1.5 bases (+120): Altuve is on quite the run and has dominated Severino in the past — what’s not to like?

The 35-year-old shortstop has a .373/.436/.687 slash line in July.

He’s 13-4 against this line in that span, logging 2+ bases in four straight games.

Altuve is 13-for-43 against Severino (.302 BA) with zero walks.

Severino owns a first percentile whiff rate (16.9%) and an eighth percentile K rate (15.9%) this season, both of which are career lows.

He’s not walking a ton of batters either (7.6% BB rate, 61st percentile), so Altuve should have something to hit.

MLB prop picks made at 9:14 a.m. ET on 07/24/2025.

Mariners vs. Angels SGP predictions July 24: Back Mike Trout and Yusei Kikuchi at +325

The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels wrap up Thursday’s five-game MLB slate.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles is slightly favoured in the series opener and looks to rebound after getting swept by the New York Mets. I’m staying away from picking a side, though, and am instead targeting three player props, with plays on sluggers Mike Trout and Cal Raleigh.

Check out my Mariners vs. Angels predictions, featuring Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi.

Mariners vs. Angels predictions

Parlay: Kikuchi over 17.5 outs | Raleigh over 0.5 hits | Trout over 0.5 hits (+325)

Kikuchi over 17.5 outs (-117): Kikuchi is generally given a chance to clear this line.

Los Angeles’ southpaw has worked into the sixth inning in 16 of his 21 starts, but has only closed out the frame nine times. Still, I like the opportunities and believe he can capitalize on Thursday.

Seattle has struggled to hit left-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

It ranks 29th in batting average (.193) and 26th in OBP (.271) in that span while striking out at the fifth-lowest clip (20.5%).

That tells me Kikuchi can keep his pitch count low by forcing soft contact and leaning on his slider, which he throws 37% of the time.

Seattle has the fourth-lowest batting average against sliders from LHP this season (.168).

Kikuchi has cleared this line in three of his last four starts against Seattle with a 0.39 ERA in those outings.

Embed: #116230

MLB SGP legs

Raleigh over 0.5 hits (-210): One Mariner who can crush that slider is Raleigh. To be fair, the catcher has crushed practically everything from left-handed pitching this season.

Raleigh vs sliders from LHP: .333 batting average, .667 slugging percentage
Raleigh vs. LHP: .321 batting average, .807 slugging percentage

The MVP candidate got a day off last night and recorded a hit in four of five games before that.

There’s no need to overthink this leg. Raleigh should feast.

Trout over 0.5 hits (-265): I like Trout’s chances of getting a knock tonight.

The three-time MVP is batting .259 over his last 25 games with a hit in 19 of those contests.

Logan Evans starts for the Mariners, and the rookie has allowed 18 hits in 14.1 innings since being recalled from Triple-A.

Evans also has command issues, which is worrisome, given Trout’s 98th percentile BB rate (15.2%).

But I still think the value on this leg is solid, as it drives the SGP up from +195 to +325.

Mariners vs. Angels predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 07/24/2025.

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Best MLB prop bets July 24: Fade Severino and back Altuve when Astros host Athletics

Thursday’s five-game MLB slate is on the light side, but one matchup has piqued my interest.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Houston Astros are rolling and face a familiar foe in Luis Severino, who is having a tough run with the Athletics. I’m looking to fade the righty and expect Jose Altuve to lead the charge.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 24, also featuring a fade on Yu Darvish.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Severino under 17.5 outs (-120)

Severino has earned the reputation as a workhorse, but he’s not living up to the bill these days.

The hard-throwing righty has gotten rocked since the start of June, raising his ERA from 3.89 to 5.10 over nine starts.

Severino has a 6.94 ERA, 5.92 FIP and 1.67 WHIP in those games.

He went under 17.5 outs eight times. That includes an outing against the Astros on June 18, where he gave up nine hits and threw 97 pitches in 5.0 IP.

And this isn’t the matchup for him to “get right.”

Houston has the fifth-best batting average (.273) and sixth-best wRC+ (122) against RHP since the start of July. The lineup is consistently finding ways to produce even with Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena sidelined.

The Astros own a collective .303 batting average against Severino in 93 combined plate appearances.

Key stat: Severino is averaging 15.4 outs over his last nine games.

Embed: #116248

Best MLB picks

Altuve over 1.5 bases (+112): Altuve is on quite the run and has dominated Severino in the past — what’s not to like?

The 35-year-old shortstop has a .373/.436/.687 slash line in July.

He’s 13-4 against this line in that span, logging 2+ bases in four straight games.

Altuve is 13-for-43 against Severino (.302 BA) with zero walks.

Severino owns a first percentile whiff rate (16.9%) and an eighth percentile K rate (15.9%) this season, both of which are career lows.

He’s not walking a ton of batters either (7.6% BB rate, 61st percentile), so Altuve should have something to hit.

Darvish under 4.5 Ks (-159): These odds are gross, but I think the juice is worth the squeeze.

Darvish is making his fourth start after missing the first three months of the season with elbow inflammation. And the results haven’t been pretty.

July 7: 3.2 IP, 5 Ks, 39% whiff rate
July 12: 4.2 IP, 2 Ks, 19% whiff rate
July 19: 5.0 IP, 1K, 18% whiff rate

The veteran righty has a 6.08 ERA and has actually regressed start-over-start.

Tonight, he faces the St. Louis Cardinals, who are a tough team to put down on strikes.

The Cards have the sixth-lowest K rate in MLB (20.4%), and Darvish has a 21.1% K rate against their current lineup over 71 plate appearances.

MLB prop picks made at 9:14 a.m. ET on 07/24/2025.

DC Citi Open round of 16 picks and predictions: Bets bets on Ben Shelton vs. Gabriel Diallo and Emma Raducanu vs. Naomi Osaka

The DC Citi Open Round of 16 continues on Thursday, and I’ve got two picks for the action.

The pregame narrative: Canadian Gabriel Diallo is a slight underdog against ATP No. 9-ranked Ben Shelton. Both are strong servers, and their matchup should go down to the wire. On the women’s side, Naomi Osaka meets Emma Raducanu in a battle of two Grand Slam winners.

Check out my top DC Citi Open predictions for July 24.

DC Citi Open predictions overview

Tennis predictions	Odds
Shelton/Diallo over 24.5 games	-106
Osaka to win	-125

Go to full DC Citi Open betting markets

DC Citi Open predictions made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 07/23/25.

DC Citi Open predictions

Best Bet: Shelton/Diallo over 23.5 games (-106)

If you’re a fan of long rallies, this match probably isn’t for you.

Shelton and Diallo are two of the hardest-serving players on the ATP Tour, ranking 14th and 15th in aces per match. Both players rank inside the top-25 in service games won, and serve rating, too.

But as returners, they leave a lot to be desired. Diallo sits 57th in return games won (19.0%), and Shelton is even lower at 73 (15.4%).

With that said, I think breaks will come few and far between, and can easily see this going the distance with a couple of tiebreaks.

Shelton is the favourite, and deservingly so, but Diallo is playing the best tennis of his young career.

The Canadian won his first ATP singles event at the Libema Open in June and took ATP World No. 4 Taylor Fritz to a fifth set in a Wimbledon second-round thriller.

Key stat: Diallo won his only match against Shelton 5–7, 7–6, 6–3 in 2022.

Quick pick

Osaka to win (-125): It’s officially comeback season for Osaka.

The former WTA World No. 1 took a leave of absence in 2023 and was shaky in 2024. But she’s put together a strong 21-10 record this year and, as expected, is doing her best work on hard courts, where she won all four of her slams.

Osaka is 10-4 on the surface this year and 4-1 in her last five. It’s worth noting two of those losses came via retirements, and one was in the Auckland Open final when she held a one-set lead.

Raducanu’s lone Grand Slam also came on hard court (2021 US Open), but she has been an unimpressive 32-29 (52.4%) on the surface since then.

The Englishwoman is also playing doubles in this event, which should make things a little more difficult against Osaka, who is consistently pushing her competitors deep into matches.

Osaka has only lost in straight sets twice in 31 matches this season.

DC Citi Open round of 16 picks and predictions: Bets bets on Ben Shelton vs. Gabriel Diallo and Emma Raducanu vs. Naomi Osaka

The DC Citi Open Round of 16 continues on Thursday, and I’ve got two picks for the action.

The pregame narrative: Canadian Gabriel Diallo is a slight underdog against ATP No. 9-ranked Ben Shelton. Both are strong servers, and their matchup should go down to the wire. On the women’s side, Naomi Osaka meets Emma Raducanu in a battle of two Grand Slam winners.

Check out my top DC Citi Open predictions for July 24.

DC Citi Open predictions overview

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Tennis predictions	Odds	Bet now ⬇️
Shelton/Diallo over 23.5 games	-109	Add to betslip
Osaka to win	-120	Add to betslip

Go to full DC Citi Open betting markets

DC Citi Open predictions made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 07/23/25.

DC Citi Open predictions

Best Bet: Shelton/Diallo over 23.5 games (-109)

If you’re a fan of long rallies, this match probably isn’t for you.

Shelton and Diallo are two of the hardest-serving players on the ATP Tour, ranking 14th and 15th in aces per match. Both players rank inside the top-25 in service games won, and serve rating, too.

But as returners, they leave a lot to be desired. Diallo sits 57th in return games won (19.0%), and Shelton is even lower at 73 (15.4%).

With that said, I think breaks will come few and far between, and can easily see this going the distance with a couple of tiebreaks.

Shelton is the favourite, and deservingly so, but Diallo is playing the best tennis of his young career.

The Canadian won his first ATP singles event at the Libema Open in June and took ATP World No. 4 Taylor Fritz to a fifth set in a Wimbledon second-round thriller.

Key stat: Diallo won his only match against Shelton 5–7, 7–6, 6–3 in 2022.

Quick pick

Osaka to win (-120): It’s officially comeback season for Osaka.

The former WTA World No. 1 took a leave of absence in 2023 and was shaky in 2024. But she’s put together a strong 21-10 record this year and, as expected, is doing her best work on hard courts, where she won all four of her slams.

Osaka is 10-4 on the surface this year and 4-1 in her last five. It’s worth noting two of those losses came via retirements, and one was in the Auckland Open final when she held a one-set lead.

Raducanu’s lone Grand Slam also came on hard court (2021 US Open), but she has been an unimpressive 32-29 (52.4%) on the surface since then.

The Englishwoman is also playing doubles in this event, which should make things a little more difficult against Osaka, who is consistently pushing her competitors deep into matches.

Osaka has only lost in straight sets twice in 31 matches this season.

MLB home run picks July 23: Back Junior Caminero and Bryce Harper

Junior Caminero and Bryce Harper are Wednesday’s featured MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Caminero is having a breakout season with the Tampa Bay Rays and has a favourable matchup at home tonight. Elsewhere, look for Harper to keep rolling after a great start to the second half.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 23.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Caminero to hit a home run (+295)

Caminero is probably hoping the Rays stay at George M. Steinbrenner Field for as long as possible.

Caminero has a .324/.360/.615 slash line at George M. Steinbrenner Field over 56 games.

16 of his 25 home runs have been hit at Tampa’s temporary home venue.

According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, George M. Steinbrenner Field is the second-most HR-friendly venue for right-hitting batters (39% more HRs than average).

Today, Caminero and the Rays host Jonathan Cannon (4.18 ERA) and the Chicago White Sox.

Cannon has given up six home runs in his last six starts and ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate, and hard-hit rate.

Caminero hasn’t hit a home run since the all-star break, but he’s 8-for-20 during the Rays’ current homestand.

He’s seeing the ball well and should get a few solid looks against a low-quality arm.

Key stat: Caminero runs reverse splits, meaning his slugging percentage against righties (.533) is higher than his slugging percentage against lefties (.456).

Best HR predictions

Harper to hit a home run (+195): Harper, much like Caminero, is on a tear coming out of the all-star break.

In five games, the two-time MVP is 8-for-19 with four doubles and three home runs. That nets out to an absurd .421/.476/1.105 slash line.

Lucas Giolito toes the rubber for the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park tonight, and the righty profiles as a solid matchup.

Giolito doesn’t walk many batters (7.2% BB rate, 70th percentile) and gives up lots of hard contact (44.0% hard-hit rate, 24th percentile) with a low strikeout rate (21.9% K rate, 45th percentile).

Harper should have plenty of pitches to hit tonight, and he’s already 1-for-3 with a home run off Giolito.

MLB home run picks made at 4:49 p.m. ET on 07/23/2025.

MLB home run picks July 23: Back Junior Caminero and Bryce Harper

Junior Caminero and Bryce Harper are Wednesday’s featured MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Caminero is having a breakout season with the Tampa Bay Rays and has a favourable matchup at home tonight. Elsewhere, look for Harper to keep rolling after a great start to the second half.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 23.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Caminero to hit a home run (+350)

Caminero is probably hoping the Rays stay at George M. Steinbrenner Field for as long as possible.

Caminero has a .324/.360/.615 slash line at George M. Steinbrenner Field over 56 games.

16 of his 25 home runs have been hit at Tampa’s temporary home venue.

According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, George M. Steinbrenner Field is the second-most HR-friendly venue for right-hitting batters (39% more HRs than average).

Today, Caminero and the Rays host Jonathan Cannon (4.18 ERA) and the Chicago White Sox.

Cannon has given up six home runs in his last six starts and ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate, and hard-hit rate.

Caminero hasn’t hit a home run since the all-star break, but he’s 8-for-20 during the Rays’ current homestand.

He’s seeing the ball well and should get a few solid looks against a low-quality arm.

Key stat: Caminero runs reverse splits, meaning his slugging percentage against righties (.533) is higher than his slugging percentage against lefties (.456).

Embed: #116211

Best HR predictions

Harper to hit a home run (+230): Harper, much like Caminero, is on a tear coming out of the all-star break.

In five games, the two-time MVP is 8-for-19 with four doubles and three home runs. That nets out to an absurd .421/.476/1.105 slash line.

Lucas Giolito toes the rubber for the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park tonight, and the righty profiles as a solid matchup.

Giolito doesn’t walk many batters (7.2% BB rate, 70th percentile) and gives up lots of hard contact (44.0% hard-hit rate, 24th percentile) with a low strikeout rate (21.9% K rate, 45th percentile).

Harper should have plenty of pitches to hit tonight, and he’s already 1-for-3 with a home run off Giolito.

MLB home run picks made at 1:49 p.m. ET on 07/23/2025.