Thursday’s five-game MLB slate is on the light side, but one matchup has piqued my interest.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Houston Astros are rolling and face a familiar foe in Luis Severino, who is having a tough run with the Athletics. I’m looking to fade the righty and expect Jose Altuve to lead the charge.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 24, also featuring a fade on Yu Darvish.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Severino under 17.5 outs (-120)
Severino has earned the reputation as a workhorse, but he’s not living up to the bill these days.
The hard-throwing righty has gotten rocked since the start of June, raising his ERA from 3.89 to 5.10 over nine starts.
- Severino has a 6.94 ERA, 5.92 FIP and 1.67 WHIP in those games.
- He went under 17.5 outs eight times. That includes an outing against the Astros on June 18, where he gave up nine hits and threw 97 pitches in 5.0 IP.
And this isn’t the matchup for him to “get right.”
Houston has the fifth-best batting average (.273) and sixth-best wRC+ (122) against RHP since the start of July. The lineup is consistently finding ways to produce even with Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena sidelined.
The Astros own a collective .303 batting average against Severino in 93 combined plate appearances.
Key stat: Severino is averaging 15.4 outs over his last nine games.
Best MLB picks
Altuve over 1.5 bases (+112): Altuve is on quite the run and has dominated Severino in the past — what’s not to like?
- The 35-year-old shortstop has a .373/.436/.687 slash line in July.
- He’s 13-4 against this line in that span, logging 2+ bases in four straight games.
- Altuve is 13-for-43 against Severino (.302 BA) with zero walks.
Severino owns a first percentile whiff rate (16.9%) and an eighth percentile K rate (15.9%) this season, both of which are career lows.
He’s not walking a ton of batters either (7.6% BB rate, 61st percentile), so Altuve should have something to hit.
Darvish under 4.5 Ks (-159): These odds are gross, but I think the juice is worth the squeeze.
Darvish is making his fourth start after missing the first three months of the season with elbow inflammation. And the results haven’t been pretty.
- July 7: 3.2 IP, 5 Ks, 39% whiff rate
- July 12: 4.2 IP, 2 Ks, 19% whiff rate
- July 19: 5.0 IP, 1K, 18% whiff rate
The veteran righty has a 6.08 ERA and has actually regressed start-over-start.
Tonight, he faces the St. Louis Cardinals, who are a tough team to put down on strikes.
The Cards have the sixth-lowest K rate in MLB (20.4%), and Darvish has a 21.1% K rate against their current lineup over 71 plate appearances.
MLB prop picks made at 9:14 a.m. ET on 07/24/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.