Shohei Ohtani toes the rubber on Monday when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Minnesota Twins.
The pregame narrative: Ohtani hasn’t pitched deep into ballgames yet, and will have a three-inning cap on his workload tonight, according to manager Dave Roberts. Minnesota starts sophomore David Festa, who has struggled since his callup in June.
Check out my Twins vs. Dodgers predictions, featuring Ohtani and Carlos Correa.
Twins vs. Dodgers predictions
Parlay: Dodgers F5 -0.5 | Ohtani under 4.5 strikeouts | Correa over 0.5 hits (+330)
Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-121): I wish the Dodgers had five full innings of Ohtani, but we probably wouldn’t be getting this price if that was the case.
The two-way superstar has dazzled on the mound in limited action this year, allowing just one run and five hits over 9.0 IP.
Most recently, he struck out four San Francisco Giants over three shutout innings.
I don’t think Minnesota will get anything going against Ohtani, who has a 2.97 career ERA and is touching 100 mph on his fastball.
Dustin May is slated to get the ball to start the fourth, and that could be a problem. The righty has a 4.96 ERA and is battling command issues.
But Minnesota’s Festa is even less reliable, sporting a 6.69 ERA and 5.09 FIP across seven starts since his call-up in June.
I expect the Dodgers to bank a sizeable lead through the first five innings.
MLB SGP legs
Ohtani under 4.5 Ks (-278): I don’t think this is getting too cheeky in the slightest.
Ohtani has logged 10 Ks in 9.0 innings so far and will need to put together a monster performance to clear this line with his pitch count.
The Twins have a middle-of-the-pack K rate and only struck out at a 16.9% clip in their weekend series against the Colorado Rockies.
Ohtani has held Minnesota’s lineup to a .170 batting average but hasn’t put it down on strikes at a crazy high rate, either.
The Twins have a 17.9% K rate against him in 56 plate appearances.
Correa over 0.5 hits (-180): Adding Correa to this wager increases the parlay’s payout from +155 to +330, which is well worth it in my opinion.
The veteran shortstop has been on fire over the last 30 days, batting .333 with a hit in 16 of 22 appearances.
He’s also batting exactly .333 vs. RHP in that span, so I’m not worried about a platoon disadvantage.
Even if Ohtani can keep him quiet once through the order, I like his chances of getting after May and L.A.’s bullpen.
Twins vs. Dodgers predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 07/21/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.