Sometimes you have to play the hits. Aaron Judge headlines Sunday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Judge is this generation’s greatest home run hitter, and he has a favourable matchup — and a decent price — against Atlanta’s Grant Holmes. Later on, Jackson Chourio should be able to take one of the game’s legends for a ride.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 20.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Judge to hit a home run (+205)
Judge has the AL Triple Crown in sight, leading MLB in average (.353), while ranking second in home runs (35) and RBI (81).
The two-time MVP has a hit in both games since the all-star break, two singles, and today seems like the time for him to take off.
Atlanta’s Holmes (3.77 ERA) is having a solid season, but he’s prone to the long ball.
- Holmes has a 21st percentile barrel rate and a 46th percentile hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.
- His 15.2% HR-to-fly-ball ratio is the sixth highest among qualified pitchers.
Holmes relies primarily on a 4-seam/slider combo, which makes up 70% of his pitch mix. Against RHPs, Judge is slugging .985 against 4-seamers (that’s not a typo) and .618 against sliders.
Judge is liable to go deep anytime he steps in the box, so I think these +205 odds are actually quite generous.
Key stat: Judge ranks in the 100th percentile for xSLG, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.
Best HR predictions
Chourio to hit a home run (+510): For the second time this month, Chourio and the Milwaukee Brewers see Clayton Kershaw.
The second-year outfielder went 1-for-3 with a single against the southpaw on July 8, and I think he’s capable of doing much more damage.
Kershaw (3.38 ERA) is having a fine season on paper, but his underlying numbers are a little concerning.
- 27th percentile xBA (.263)
- 14th percentile K rate (16.9)
- 14th percentile hard-hit rate (45.5)
Chourio is on a rampage this month, slashing .345 with three home runs and a .937 OPS.
He draws walks at one of the lowest rates in MLB (4.2%, fifth percentile), so he will surely be looking for something to hit amid this hot streak.
And Chourio has also lit up lefties this year to the tune of a .360/.388/.604 slash line.
MLB home run picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 07/20/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.