Avery Perri

Atlanta’s MLB All-Star Game festivities begin on Monday night with the 2025 Home Run Derby.

The pregame narrative: Matt Olson was a last-minute replacement for his teammate Ronald Acuna Jr., and the veteran slugger holds enticing odds in front of his home fans. Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz is favoured to win, and his freakish power should be on full display.

Check out my MLB Home Run Derby picks, featuring a prediction on Byron Buxton, for the all-star event on July 14.

Home Run Derby picks

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Full HR Derby betting markets.

Best bet: Olson to reach the semifinals (-106), win the HR Derby (+700)

Everybody in this field can mash, and Olson is no exception.

The 31-year-old has hit 17 bombs this year and ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Olson is on a cold spell lately, with just three home runs in his last 24 games.

But he doesn’t need to be in form to win — Teoscar Hernandez had two home runs in 27 games before winning last year — and Olson has the advantage of competing in his home ballpark on Monday.

• Truist Park is the seventh-most HR-friendly ballpark for lefty bats, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors.

• Olson has 62 homers at home since joining the Braves in 2022, and led MLB with 54 bombs in 2023.

Reaching the semifinals requires Olson to come inside the top half for total HRs in the opening round. I’m very bullish on that play.

After that, Olson would be seeded into a head-to-head elimination bracket, with the most HRs advancing in each round.

Key stat: Olson is the only player in the field to participate in a HR derby before, hitting 23 home runs in the opening round in 2021.

HR Derby best bets

Cruz to hit the longest home run (+165): I’m skeptical that Cruz will win this event, but I believe the favourite will provide fireworks at some point.

The Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder stands at 6-foot-7 and weighs 240 pounds. Anytime he connects with a baseball, it gets hit hard.

• Cruz has the highest average exit velocity (96.3 mph) in all of MLB.

• All but one of Cruz’s 18 home runs this year have been hit above 100 mph. His 122.9 max exit velocity was the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era.

• His 57.7% hard-hit rate is third behind Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber.

Cruz is a towering pull hitter and will surely be swinging out of his shoes at every pitch tonight.

Backing the biggest and strongest player to hit the furthest ball seems like a good plan to me.

Buxton to reach the semifinals (+100): The greatest ability is availability, and Buxton’s health concerns are what’s kept him from being a truly elite player.

But the Minnesota Twin is electric whenever he’s on the field.

Buxton has posted an OPS+ of 115 or better in six of the last seven seasons, playing no more than 102 games in any of those campaigns. This year, he has 21 home runs in 78 games, and is slugging .574.

The righty is a pull hitter and won’t reap the benefit of Truist Park’s dimensions. But I think he can capitalize on raw power and athleticism to at least make it to the second round.

MLB Home Run Derby picks made at 9 a.m. on 07/14/2025.

A star-studded series kicks off in New York on Friday night when the Yankees host the Chicago Cubs.

The pregame narrative: New York’s bats have come alive during a four-game winning streak, and the Yankees are favoured to keep things rolling behind Carlos Rodon. Chris Flexen serves as an opener for Chicago, and he’s been hit hard by the Yanks before.

Check out my Cubs vs. Yankees prop picks for July 11, featuring Kyle Tucker and Giancarlo Stanton

Cubs vs. Yankees prop picks

Best bet: Tucker over 0.5 runs (-103)

Tucker thrives with a platoon advantage, which he won’t have tonight — at least through the early goings of the game.

But his lefty/righty splits aren’t quite as pronounced as they’ve been in years past, and he’s been consistent at the plate lately.

• Tucker vs. LHPs: .268/.365/.491
• Tucker vs. RHPs: .292/.398/.519

The Cubs’ No. 2 hitter has a hit in 11 of his last 15 games, batting .298 in that span and scoring 12 runs.

Tucker’s advanced metrics are amazing (90th-percentile xBA, 87th-percentile K rate, 95th-percentile walk rate). He also has a decent amount of familiarity with Rodon, going 3-for-12 with a .313 xBA in those at-bats.

New York’s righty has a sky-high K rate, but Tucker isn’t one to go down on strikes often. Rodon also struggles with issuing walks, so I can see Tucker finding his way on the basepaths one way or another.

After that, it’s up to Chicago’s red-hot lineup to drive him in.

Key stat: Chicago is averaging the most runs per game (5.41) in MLB.

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Quick pick

Stanton over 1.5 bases (+104): New York needed Stanton to get going, and he’s delivered. The big man has caught fire during the team’s winning streak, going 5-for-14 (.357) with two home runs and a double.

I’m hopeful he can carry that momentum into what should be a favourable matchup.

Stanton is 2-for-8 against Flexen with two Ks. But he has generated a .317 xBA and .646 xSLG in those at-bats.

Chicago’s opener has dreadful swing-and-miss stuff (fifth-percentile whiff rate, third-percentile K rate) and rarely walks batters (75th-percentile walk rate).

The big man should have something to hit his first two times through the order, and after that, he’s as good a bet as any to cash this wager on one swing.

Cubs vs. Yankees prop picks made at 9:00 a.m. ET on 07/11/2025.