Staff Writer

Diamondbacks vs. Padres best bet and odds July 10: Expect Corbin Caroll to rake on Thursday

Thursday’s final MLB game takes place in San Diego when the Padres host the Diamondbacks.

The pregame narrative: Arizona hit four home runs in Wednesday’s series opener, which it won 8-2. Corbin Carroll contributed to the fireworks and is in a good spot to do damage against a struggling Randy Vasquez.

Check out my Diamondbacks vs. Padres best bet for July 10.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres best bet

Best bet: Carroll over 1.5 bases (-112)

Carroll is batting leadoff for the D-backs, which should mean at least four opportunities at the plate.

The outfielder hasn’t been hitting for average, which is fine, because he’s more than capable of cashing this bet with one swing.

Carroll’s 2.26 total bases per game is the fourth-most in MLB.

He is 4-3 against this line in his last seven games with two doubles, two triples, and a home run.

Carroll is 5-for-10 against Vasquez with three doubles. His .461 xBA and .570 xSLG in those at-bats indicate those results aren’t fluky.

Vasquez owns a 3.79 ERA, which might seem fine on a surface level.

But he ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in walk rate, K rate, xERA and xBA.

Vaquez’s 5.78 xERA is noticeably higher than his 3.79 ERA, and his K rate (12.5%) and whiff rate (15.8%) both rank in the first percentile.

Carroll should be putting the ball in play tonight with authority.

Key stat: Caroll is slugging .619 vs. RHP this season and .595 on the road.

Embed: #115737

Diamondbacks vs. Padres best bet made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 07/10/2025.

Chelsea vs. PSG odds for FIFA Club World Cup final: Parisians heavily favoured to win

PSG looks to cap its incredible season with a win at the FIFA Club World Cup final on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Luis Enrique’s side already has a treble under its belt and has shown no signs of slowing down after demolishing Bayern Munich and Real Madrid in the knockout stage of this tournament. Chelsea is a heavy underdog to pull off an upset at MetLife Stadium.

Check out our Chelsea vs. PSG odds for the final on July 13.

Chelsea vs. PSG odds

Full Chelsea vs. PSG betting markets

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Chelsea vs. PSG markets	Betting odds
Chelsea to win	+430
Draw	+340
PSG to win	-157
Chelsea to lift the trophy	+240
PSG to lift the trophy	-335
Over 2.5 goals	-167
Under 2.5 goals	+140
Both teams to score — Yes	-155
Both teams to score — No	+120

Chelsea vs. PSG odds as of 10:40 a.m. on 07/10/2025.

Can anyone stop PSG? It doesn’t seem like it. The Parisians have had a much tougher road to the final, and they made it look easy.

Round of 16: 4-0 win over Inter Miami
Quarterfinal: 2-0 win over Bayern Munich
Semifinal: 4-0 win over Real Madrid

At the risk of sounding reductive, you have to score to win football games, and PSG has only conceded one goal this tournament.

Enrique’s side just shut out a loaded Real Madrid roster, holding 69% possession and limiting the Spanish side to two shots on target.

Chelsea, meanwhile, beat Benfica 4-1 in extra time in the quarterfinal, scoring three goals after the Portuguese side received a red card.

It then knocked out a pair of Brazilian teams — Palmeiras and Fluminense — in the quarters and semis.

Enzo Maresca will be tasked with solving Enrique’s high-press, possession-based style of play, which has flummoxed opponents all season.

Wimbledon 2025 tennis odds and betting favourites: Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz top men’s board

The semifinals are set, and several usual suspects remain at the top of the Wimbledon odds board.

The latest: Carlos Alcaraz topped Jannik Sinner in one of the most epic French Open finals you’ll ever see in June, and those two are still the clear-cut favourites to win at the All England Club. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka headlines the final four.

Check out our latest 2025 Wimbledon odds as of July 9.

Wimbledon odds

We’ll first start with the men’s side, which features Sinner, Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic at the top.

Player	Odds
Carlos Alcaraz	-118
Jannik Sinner	+185
Novak Djokovic	+400
Taylor Fritz	+2,000

Wimbledon odds as of 4:00 p.m. on 07/09/2025.

Full Wimbledon betting markets

Men’s Wimbledon odds notes

Sinner started the year on an incredible run. He won 18 of his first 20 matches but those two losses came against Alcaraz. The Italian is 15-2 on grass since the start of 2024. He was down two sets to Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16, but the Bulgarian had to retire with an injury. That unfortunate break has given Sinner new life and a chance to capture his second Grand Slam title of the season.

Alcaraz was down to triple championship point before mounting a historic comeback against Sinner to defend his French Open title and secure a fifth grand slam… at the age of 22. He’s 30-1 on grass over the last two years and is looking for a third straight Wimbledon title.

It’s a testament to Djokovic’s durability that he’s here. And he’s seemingly the only player who can consistently compete against Sinner and Alcaraz. The 38-year-old aims to tie Roger Federer’s record of eight Wimbledon titles this year.

Taylor Fritz has 13-1 on grass this year, winning both the BOSS Open and the Lexus Eastbourne Open. He’s 0-2 against Alcaraz.

Wimbledon odds: Women’s side

Player	Odds
Aryna Sabalenka	-130
Iga Swiatek	+190
Amanda Anisimova	+650
Belinda Bencic	+1,400

Wimbledon odds as of 4:00 p.m. on 07/09/2025.

Women’s Wimbledon odds notes

Sabalenka is now the odds-on favourite to win at Wimbledon. The world No. 1 was runner-up in both the Australian Open and French Open but won twice in between (Miami Open, Madrid Open). She was forced to withdraw from Wimbledon last year and was a semifinalist in 2023. She meets Amanda Anisimova in the semifinal.

Iga Swiatek is having a down year, but that all can change. She owns a 39-11 record and has yet to win a tournament after capturing five singles titles, including the French Open, in 2024. Her 25-9 record on grass rivals the best in the world, so Wimbledon might be her best chance this season to capture a Grand Slam title.

Blue Jays vs. White Sox SGP predictions July 9: Back Addison Barger in +300 SGP

The Toronto Blue Jays can tie their longest winning streak in a decade with a victory over the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has rattled off 10 wins in a row and is favoured to take today’s matinee behind lefty Eric Lauer. Chicago counters with veteran Adrian Houser, who has been sensational and is garnering trade interest ahead of the July 31 deadline.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. White Sox predictions, featuring Addison Barger and Edgar Quero.

Blue Jays vs. White Sox predictions

Parlay: White Sox F5 +0.5 | Barger over 0.5 hits | Quero over 0.5 hits (+300)

White Sox +0.5 – first five innings (-136): Houser is on a one-year “prove it” deal with the White Sox, making just $850,000 after a horrible 2024 with the New York Mets.

And prove it he has.

The 33-year-old righty has been electric since his season debut on May 20, sporting a 1.60 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through eight starts. He’s also held opponents to a paltry .188 batting average in three starts at home.

Houser has shut out back-to-back opponents over 15.0 innings and held the Jays to two runs in 6.1 IP the start before that. Unsurprisingly, the White Sox are 3-0 against a +0.5 F5 line in those games.

Lauer has been great for Toronto as well, but I expect Houser to keep Chicago in the fight — at least through the first bit of this game.

Embed: #115669

MLB SGP legs

Barger over 0.5 hits (-225): I don’t expect Houser to throw a no-hitter, and Barger profiles as the type of guy who can record a knock.

Barger is batting .370 in July. He has a hit in 6 of 8 games.

The utility man has a .280/.335/.560 slash line vs. RHP (batting .211 vs. LHP).

Houser has struggled against lefty bats, ceding a .258 batting average (.183 vs. RHBs).

Barger is worth a look anytime there’s a righty on the mound, and today is no different.

Quero over 0.5 hits (-182): On the other end of the spectrum, let’s back a player who’s destroying left-handed pitching.

Enter Chicago’s 22-year-old catcher, Quero.

He’s batting .417 against southpaws, which is more than double his batting average against righties (.191).

Quero doesn’t hit for power or strike out at a crazy-high clip. He does draw an above-average number of walks, but Lauer tends to find the zone with a 64th-percentile walk rate.

This seems like a solid addition at a reasonable price.

Blue Jays vs. White Sox predictions made at 10:45 a.m. ET on 07/09/2025.

Scottish Open picks, predictions and odds: Back Hovland and Fitzpatrick at Renaissance Club

A stacked field congregates just outside of Edinburgh for the Scottish Open this week.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler headlines the bunch and is favoured to win at Renaissance Club. But I’ve got my eyes on a pair of European Ryder Cup players — Viktor Hovland and Matthew Fitzpatrick — in addition to a two-time winner this season.

Check out my Scottish Open picks for the 2025 tournament beginning on July 10.

Scottish Open picks

Best bet: Hovland to win (+3,000)

The last time we saw Hovland, he was forced to withdraw from the Travelers Championship on Sunday with a neck injury.

The Norwegian entered the day 6-under, and a top-10 finish sure felt like the floor had he finished out.

But I’m not worried about that injury, and you shouldn’t be either. Hovland has been practicing plenty in the lead-up to this event and is seemingly good to go.

Viktor Hovland (neck) hitting driver again ahead of next week's Scottish Open.pic.twitter.com/uCyHejkl23
— Underdog Golf (@UnderdogGolf) July 3, 2025

With that said, I can’t wrap my head around this +3,000 price tag.

Hovland was fighting it to begin the year but has dialled it in lately. He’s made eight straight cuts, finishing third at the U.S. Open in June in addition to his win at the Valspar Championship in March.,

We’re talking about a player who has nine professional wins to his name — this is a must-bet in my book.

Key stat: Hovland ranks second in strokes gained: approach (+1.32) and sixth in strokes gained: total (+1.67) over the last three months, according to DataGolf.

Go to full Scottish Open betting markets.

Golf picks

Fitzpatrick to win (3,300): Is Fitzpatrick back? I would venture to say he’s pretty darn close. And in this game, you’d rather be early than late, so I am happy to take the plunge.

The Englishman has two top-10 finishes during his six-event streak of making the cut. That includes a T8 in his most recent start at the Rocket Classic.

He ranks 17th in strokes gained: putting (+0.65) and 16th in strokes gained: approach (+0.61) in this field over the last 20 rounds.

Fitzpatrick grew up playing on courses similar to this one and has a strong history at the Renaissance Club. He was runner-up at this event in 2021 and T6 in 2022.

Ryan Fox to win (+5,000): Take a look at what Fox has done in his last six starts and tell me if he’s flying under the radar:

Six top-30 finishes
Five top-20 finishes
Two wins (Canadian Open, ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic)

His success derived from elite ball striking and putting seems sustainable enough, and his length off the tee should only be a bonus at this venue.

Fox has made four straight cuts at Renaissance Club, finishing T12 in 2023.

Scottish Open picks made at 2:00 p.m. on 07/08/2025.

Scottish Open picks, predictions and odds: Back Hovland and Fitzpatrick at Renaissance Club

A stacked field congregates just outside of Edinburgh for the Scottish Open this week.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler headlines the bunch and is favoured to win at Renaissance Club. But I’ve got my eyes on a pair of European Ryder Cup players — Viktor Hovland and Matthew Fitzpatrick — in addition to a two-time winner this season.

Check out my Scottish Open picks for the 2025 tournament beginning on July 10.

Scottish Open picks

Best bet: Hovland to win (+3,300) & top-20 finish (+163)

The last time we saw Hovland, he was forced to withdraw from the Travelers Championship on Sunday with a neck injury.

The Norwegian entered the day 6-under, and a top-10 finish sure felt like the floor had he finished out.

But I’m not worried about that injury, and you shouldn’t be either. Hovland has been practicing plenty in the lead-up to this event and is seemingly good to go.

Viktor Hovland (neck) hitting driver again ahead of next week's Scottish Open.pic.twitter.com/uCyHejkl23
— Underdog Golf (@UnderdogGolf) July 3, 2025

With that said, I can’t wrap my head around this +3,300 price tag.

Hovland was fighting it to begin the year but has dialled it in lately. He’s made eight straight cuts, finishing third at the U.S. Open in June in addition to his win at the Valspar Championship in March.,

We’re talking about a player who has nine professional wins to his name — this is a must-bet in my book.

Key stat: Hovland ranks second in strokes gained: approach (+1.32) and sixth in strokes gained: total (+1.67) over the last three months, according to DataGolf.

Go to full Scottish Open betting markets.

Golf picks

Fitzpatrick to win (+3,300) & top-20 finish (+125): Is Fitzpatrick back? I would venture to say he’s pretty darn close. And in this game, you’d rather be early than late, so I am happy to take the plunge.

The Englishman has two top-10 finishes during his six-event streak of making the cut. That includes a T8 in his most recent start at the Rocket Classic.

He ranks 17th in strokes gained: putting (+0.65) and 16th in strokes gained: approach (+0.61) in this field over the last 20 rounds.

Fitzpatrick grew up playing on courses similar to this one and has a strong history at the Renaissance Club. He was runner-up at this event in 2021 and T6 in 2022.

Ryan Fox to win (+6,000) & top-30 finish (+150): Take a look at what Fox has done in his last six starts and tell me if he’s flying under the radar:

Six top-30 finishes
Five top-20 finishes
Two wins (Canadian Open, ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic)

His success derived from elite ball striking and putting seems sustainable enough, and his length off the tee should only be a bonus at this venue.

Fox has made four straight cuts at Renaissance Club, finishing T12 in 2023.

Scottish Open picks made at 2:00 p.m. on 07/08/2025.

MLB home run picks July 8: Bet on Jackson Chourio to take Clayton Kershaw deep

Jackson Chourio headlines Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Clayton Kershaw was named to his 11th all-star team this week as a “Legend Pick” in recognition of his illustrious career. But the southpaw’s best years are well behind him, and Chourio should be able to take him deep tonight.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 8, featuring Dominic Canzone.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Chourio to hit a home run (+500)

Kershaw will have a spot in Cooperstown the second he’s eligible, but until then he’s a prime fade candidate for me.

The 37-year-old southpaw has a 3.43 ERA this year — which might not seem terrible — but is giving up a ton of hard contact and is struggling to miss bats.

35th percentile xERA (4.18)
18th percentile K rate (17.5)
4th percentile hard-hit rate (48.9)

Kershaw has given up four home runs in his last three starts and now faces a potent Milwaukee Brewers lineup averaging the eighth-most runs per game.

Of all the players on the Brewers to target, Chourio is my man.

The 21-year-old has an absurd .360/.390/.620 slash line against lefties this year, and draws walks at one of the lowest rates in the league (4.2%, sixth percentile).

Being a free swinger is key for a wager like this, and I expect Chourio to find an offering he can smash from Kershaw.

Key stat: Kershaw has allowed five of his six HRs to right-hitting batters this season.

Best HR predictions

Canzone to hit a home run (+350): You probably don’t know who Canzone is, and that’s fine. Because I honestly wasn’t too familiar with his game ahead of researching for this piece.

The 27-year-old is on a nice run for the Seattle Mariners after getting called up in early June, slashing .293/.321/.573 through 25 games with six home runs.

He does a ton of damage against right-handed pitchers and has an A-plus matchup tonight:

Canzone is slugging .615 against RHP this year, hitting all of his home runs against righties.

He’s going up against New York’s Will Warren (5.02 ERA). The righty has a 12th-percentile hard-hit rate and has given up a .832 OPS to left-hitting batters this season.

Yankee Stadium is the fourth-most HR-friendly park for LHBs according to Baseball Savant’s park factors. Winds of around 7-8 mph blowing out to centre should help our cause.

I love Canzone’s chances of putting one over the short porch tonight.

MLB home run picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 07/08/2025.

MLB home run picks July 8: Bet on Jackson Chourio to take Clayton Kershaw deep

Jackson Chourio headlines Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Clayton Kershaw was named to his 11th all-star team this week as a “Legend Pick” in recognition of his illustrious career. But the southpaw’s best years are well behind him, and Chourio should be able to take him deep tonight.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 8, featuring Dominic Canzone.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Chourio to hit a home run (+575)

Kershaw will have a spot in Cooperstown the second he’s eligible, but until then he’s a prime fade candidate for me.

The 37-year-old southpaw has a 3.43 ERA this year — which might not seem terrible — but is giving up a ton of hard contact and is struggling to miss bats.

35th percentile xERA (4.18)
18th percentile K rate (17.5)
4th percentile hard-hit rate (48.9)

Kershaw has given up four home runs in his last three starts and now faces a potent Milwaukee Brewers lineup averaging the eighth-most runs per game.

Of all the players on the Brewers to target, Chourio is my man.

The 21-year-old has an absurd .360/.390/.620 slash line against lefties this year, and draws walks at one of the lowest rates in the league (4.2%, sixth percentile).

Being a free swinger is key for a wager like this, and I expect Chourio to find an offering he can smash from Kershaw.

Key stat: Kershaw has allowed five of his six HRs to right-hitting batters this season.

Embed: #115635

Best HR predictions

Canzone to hit a home run (+390): You probably don’t know who Canzone is, and that’s fine. Because I honestly wasn’t too familiar with his game ahead of researching for this piece.

The 27-year-old is on a nice run for the Seattle Mariners after getting called up in early June, slashing .293/.321/.573 through 25 games with six home runs.

He does a ton of damage against right-handed pitchers and has an A-plus matchup tonight:

Canzone is slugging .615 against RHP this year, hitting all of his home runs against righties.

He’s going up against New York’s Will Warren (5.02 ERA). The righty has a 12th-percentile hard-hit rate and has given up a .832 OPS to left-hitting batters this season.

Yankee Stadium is the fourth-most HR-friendly park for LHBs according to Baseball Savant’s park factors. Winds of around 7-8 mph blowing out to centre should help our cause.

I love Canzone’s chances of putting one over the short porch tonight.

MLB home run picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 07/08/2025.

Blue Jays vs. White Sox prop picks July 8: Back Bo Bichette, Nathan Lukes to produce

The Toronto Blue Jays are in action on Tuesday, searching for a 10th straight win.

The pregame narrative: Toronto took yesterday’s series opener against the Chicago White Sox, 8-4, and is a heavy road favourite behind Chris Bassitt. Chicago counters with Aaron Civale, who has yet to win in a White Sox uniform.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. White Sox for July 8, featuring Nathan Lukes and Bo Bichette.

Blue Jays picks vs. White Sox

Best Bet: Lukes to score (-106)

I was debating backing George Springer, Toronto’s No. 2 hitter, to score, but couldn’t do it at -143 odds.

This seems like a much better option, given Lukes’ recent form, and the fact that he’s hitting leadoff ahead of guys like Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Addison Barger.

Lukes is slashing .409/.500/.636 over his last seven games.

In that span, he’s scored eight runs and is 6-1 against this line.

The left-batting utilityman also has a noticeable platoon advantage, with a .389 OBP vs. RHP and a .294 OBP vs. LHP.

Civale got traded to the White Sox in mid-June and has lowered his ERA by 31 points to 4.60 over four starts. But he’s still giving up a ton of baserunners (34 in 21.0 IP), and should get punished by Toronto’s lineup.

The Jays have seen a lot of Civale from his days with the Tampa Bay Rays and have dominated him.

Key stat: Toronto’s current lineup owns a .297 batting average and .344 xBA against Civale in 64 combined at-bats.

Quick pick

Bichette to record an RBI (+110): Bichette bats cleanup for Toronto, which is a nice RBI production spot when the lineup is hitting like it has been.

And if guys ahead of him can get aboard, he should be able to tee off on Civale.

Bichette is 4-for-16 against Civale with a home run. His xBA (.421) and xSLG (.776) in those at-bats indicate he’s left a lot on the table.

The shortstop is on a four-game hitting streak, with an RBI in three of those contests.

Bichette is the definition of a free swinger. His 13th percentile walk rate (5.0%) and 11th percentile chase rate (35.5%) mean he’s always looking to put the ball in play.

And that doesn’t mean he strikes out a ton, either. His 16.3% K rate ranks in the 78th percentile and is the best mark of his career.

That’s what I want when targeting a player to drive in runs.

Blue Jays picks were made at 8:46 a.m. ET on 07/08/2025.