Jackson Chourio headlines Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Clayton Kershaw was named to his 11th all-star team this week as a “Legend Pick” in recognition of his illustrious career. But the southpaw’s best years are well behind him, and Chourio should be able to take him deep tonight.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 8, featuring Dominic Canzone.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Chourio to hit a home run (+575)
Kershaw will have a spot in Cooperstown the second he’s eligible, but until then he’s a prime fade candidate for me.
The 37-year-old southpaw has a 3.43 ERA this year — which might not seem terrible — but is giving up a ton of hard contact and is struggling to miss bats.
- 35th percentile xERA (4.18)
- 18th percentile K rate (17.5)
- 4th percentile hard-hit rate (48.9)
Kershaw has given up four home runs in his last three starts and now faces a potent Milwaukee Brewers lineup averaging the eighth-most runs per game.
Of all the players on the Brewers to target, Chourio is my man.
The 21-year-old has an absurd .360/.390/.620 slash line against lefties this year, and draws walks at one of the lowest rates in the league (4.2%, sixth percentile).
Being a free swinger is key for a wager like this, and I expect Chourio to find an offering he can smash from Kershaw.
Key stat: Kershaw has allowed five of his six HRs to right-hitting batters this season.
Best HR predictions
Canzone to hit a home run (+390): You probably don’t know who Canzone is, and that’s fine. Because I honestly wasn’t too familiar with his game ahead of researching for this piece.
The 27-year-old is on a nice run for the Seattle Mariners after getting called up in early June, slashing .293/.321/.573 through 25 games with six home runs.
He does a ton of damage against right-handed pitchers and has an A-plus matchup tonight:
- Canzone is slugging .615 against RHP this year, hitting all of his home runs against righties.
- He’s going up against New York’s Will Warren (5.02 ERA). The righty has a 12th-percentile hard-hit rate and has given up a .832 OPS to left-hitting batters this season.
- Yankee Stadium is the fourth-most HR-friendly park for LHBs according to Baseball Savant’s park factors. Winds of around 7-8 mph blowing out to centre should help our cause.
I love Canzone’s chances of putting one over the short porch tonight.
MLB home run picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 07/08/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.