Avery Perri

Monday’s 10-game MLB slate is a little on the lighter side, but I’ve still got three prop picks for the action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: A serious pitcher’s duel is brewing in Los Angeles tonight when Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels host Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers. Both pitchers are on a roll, and that game has is tied for the lowest total (7.5 runs) of the night.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 7, featuring Kikuchi, Elly De La Cruz and Gavin Sheets.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Kikuchi over 17.5 outs (-188)

Kikuchi has put a rough start to the season behind him and is on a tear heading into the All-Star break.

Check out the southpaw’s stats since the start of May:

• 2.15 ERA
• 1.27 WHIP
• .234 OBA

Kikuchi’s biggest problem has been walking batters — his 10.6% BB rate ranks in the 17th percentile — which impacts his ability to work deep into ball games.

But it looks like he has re-gained some control over his last five starts, issuing just six walks in 32.2 IP (5% BB rate). In that span, Kikuchi has gone 3-2 against this line while landing on exactly 17 outs in the outliers.

Texas’ current lineup is sputtering, especially against southpaws. The Rangers rank bottom five in batting average, wRC+ and ISO vs. LHP.

Kikuchi has also had lots of success against the Rangers, holding this lineup to a .204 batting average in 111 plate appearances.

Key stat: Kikuchi has pitched into the sixth inning in 10 of his last 11 starts.

Best MLB picks

De La Cruz over 1.5 bases (-106): When De La Cruz gets into a groove, watch out. The Cincinnati Reds’ superstar is slashing .339/.369/.516 over his last 15 games with four extra-base hits.

He’s not really hitting for power, but that’s bound to change soon.

De La Cruz ranks in the 77th percentile or higher for xSLG, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.

Tonight, he goes up against reliever-turned-starter Janson Junk, who has a 4.91 ERA since being moved into the Miami Marlins’ rotation.

Junk’s .299 xBA and 50.9% hard-hit rate both rank in the bottom-fifth percentile. I expect De La Cruz, who has a platoon advantage, to make him pay.

Sheets to record an RBI (+185): I backed Sheets to record an RBI last Friday and Saturday, and he failed to do so, despite going 3-for-8 in those games — the third time’s a charm, right?

The left-hitting Sheets is batting fifth in a stacked San Diego Padres lineup behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Luis Arraez.

Tonight, the Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks and Zac Gallen.

Gallen has been a disaster this season, posting career-worst numbers in several major categories:

• ERA (5.45)
• WHIP (1.37)
• OBA (.249)
• K/9 (8.5)

San Diego’s lineup has a ton of experience against Gallen, batting .250 against him in 136 at-bats. In his lone start against the Padres this year, Gallen allowed four runs in 6.1 IP.

MLB prop picks made at 1:39 p.m. ET on 07/07/2025.

Trevor Story and Manny Machado are my home run targets for Monday’s MLB slate.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: The wind is projected to blow out hard to the Green Monster at Fenway Park tonight, and the right-hitting Story has a platoon advantage. Elsewhere, Manny Machado should do damage against a familiar foe.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 7.

MLB home run picks

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Best bet: Story to hit a home run (+320)

According to Swish Analytics, the wind will be blowing out to left field at roughly 10 mph through the first two hours of this contest.

That means Colorado Rockies’ lefty Austin Gomber could be in a world of trouble against a few of Boston’s top hitters.

Story has been swinging a red-hot bat, slashing .469/.500/.875 with three home runs over an eight-game hit streak. Yesterday, he sent this towering shot out of Nationals Park for his 14th home run of the year:

Gomber has only made four starts this year since being activated from the IL, and the early results haven’t been encouraging:

• 5.49 ERA
• 1.53 WHIP
• Four HRs, six Ks

The lefty posted an ERA north of 4.50 from 2021-2024, though, and ranked in the bottom 10th percentile for xERA, xBA, and K rate last year, so this was to be expected.

Key stat: Right-hitting batters are slashing .352/.378/.620 vs. Gomber this year, and Story is slashing .279/.311/.465 against LHP.

Best HR predictions

Machado to hit a home run (+295): The San Diego Padres open up a three-game set against the divisional rival Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, and I think the home team is set to tee off.

D-backs starter Zac Gallen is having a nightmare season, posting career-worst numbers in:

• ERA (5.45)
• WHIP (1.37)
• OBA (.249)
• K/9 (8.5)

Gallen has given up 10 home runs in his last six starts and has the fifth-highest HR/9 rate (1.7) among all qualified pitchers.

Machado has seen plenty of Gallen, going 6-for-25 with a home run. But the advanced metrics suggest he’s been a tad unlucky.

The power-hitting third baseman has a .343 xBA and .704 xSLG in those at-bats.

I expect Machado to utilize that familiarity to capitalize against a struggling pitcher.

MLB home run picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 07/07/2025.

Every MLB team is in action on Saturday and I’ve got three prop bets for the action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Shohei Ohtani makes his fourth start as a pitcher this season, going opposite Houston’s Framber Valdez. I’m looking to capitalize on Ohtani’s spotty track record against Valdez, who has been a stud in his own right this season.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 5, featuring picks on Gleyber Torres and Gavin Sheets.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Torres to score (-130)

Torres is having a renaissance in his first season with the Tigers.

The second baseman is posting a career-high batting average (.279) and his best OPS (.809) since 2019, when he was a New York Yankee.

Are those earth-shattering numbers? No. But Torres has gotten better as the year has gone on and is doing a ton of damage against left-handed pitching.

• .299/.386/.474 slash line in June
• .300/.412/.543 slash line vs. LHP

Logan Allen gets the ball for the Cleveland Guardians today, and he’s been struggling. The southpaw struggles to miss bats and issues up a ton of walks, leading to a 4.27 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

I was debating backing Torres over 1.5 bases at plus money, but feel more comfortable taking him to score as the leadoff man on the road.

Detroit has the second-best wRC+ vs. LHP this year (136), so I trust the lineup to drive Torres home once he gets on.

Key stat: Torres has scored six runs in his last six games, going 4-2 vs. this line.

Best MLB picks

Ohtani under 0.5 runs (-110): Fading the best player on the best offence in baseball is risky business, but I think it makes sense here.

Ohtani is all too familiar with Valdez from his days with the Los Angeles Angels, and the head-to-head matchup skews heavily with the pitcher.

• Ohtani is 5-for-36 against Valdez with 12 strikeouts and six walks.

• His .169 xBA and .281 xSLG in those matchups indicate Valdez hasn’t gotten lucky.

Houston’s lefty is also on fire, with a 1.57 ERA in his last seven starts, so this seems like a good spot to throw down a rare fade on Ohtani.

Sheets over 0.5 RBI (+190): I backed Sheets on this market yesterday, and he went 2-for-4 without driving anyone in. But I’ll gladly go back to that well in a plus matchup today.

The outfielder hits behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Luis Arraez, which is right where we want to be for run production.

Especially against Texas Rangers southpaw Patrick Corbin, who has been MLB’s whipping boy over the past few seasons:

• 5.20 ERA or higher from 2021-2024
• 4.26 ERA this season
• 5.28 ERA in June

Corbin has generally done well to shut down left-hitting batters this season, holding them to a .209/.270/374 slash line. But Sheets is swinging a hot bat and has hit LHP well enough this year (.263 BA) for me to buy in.

MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 07/05/2025.

Seiya Suzuki headlines Saturday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: The perfect storm is brewing at Wrigley Field for a home run fest, and Suzuki profiles as the man to bet on. Elsewhere, Rafael Devers should be able to lock in against an old foe from his AL East days with the Boston Red Sox.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 5.

MLB home run picks

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB player stats
• MLB standings

Best bet: Suzuki to hit a home run (+220)

According to Swish Analytics, the wind will be blowing out at over 10 mph to centre field at Wrigley today.

Add in the fact that struggling lefty Matthew Liberatore is pitching, and I love Suzuki’s chances of going yard.

The Cardinals’ starter had a 5.14 ERA across five starts in June, and his advanced metrics paint an even better picture for this wager:

• 19.9% K rate (34th percentile)
• 4.5% walk rate (95th percentile)
• 44.1% hard-hit rate (25th percentile)

Basically 75% of at-bats against Liberatore end up with the ball in play, and almost half of those balls are crushed. For context, a hard-hit ball is defined as anything with an exit velocity over 95 mph.

Suzuki has a noticeable platoon advantage against Liberatore (.300/.379/.611 slash line vs. LHP), and has gone deep in three of his last six games.

Key stat: Suzuki’s 24 home runs are the sixth-most in MLB.

Best HR predictions

Devers to hit a home run (+235): Just like in Chicago, the wind is blowing out strongly to centre in Sacramento at Sutter Health Park.

The Athletics’ temporary home is already the most hitter-friendly venue in baseball, so naturally, this has caught my attention.

Luis Severino is pitching for the A’s, and he’s coming off a disastrous month.

• 7.71 ERA
• 1.71 WHIP
• .315 batting average

The right-hander gave up seven home runs in six starts with just 17 strikeouts. That’s extremely troubling and is something I hope the Giants and Devers can capitalize on.

Devers has a ton of experience against Severino from when the latter was a Yankee, and the results skew heavily in the pitcher’s favour (3-for-22, seven Ks).

But that was a long time ago, and Devers still has a platoon advantage. I think he can find a way to hit an old foe hard.

MLB home run picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 07/04/2025.