Avery Perri

Every MLB team is in action on Saturday and I’ve got three prop bets for the action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Shohei Ohtani makes his fourth start as a pitcher this season, going opposite Houston’s Framber Valdez. I’m looking to capitalize on Ohtani’s spotty track record against Valdez, who has been a stud in his own right this season.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 5, featuring picks on Gleyber Torres and Gavin Sheets.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Torres to score (-115)

Torres is having a renaissance in his first season with the Tigers.

The second baseman is posting a career-high batting average (.279) and his best OPS (.809) since 2019, when he was a New York Yankee.

Are those earth-shattering numbers? No. But Torres has gotten better as the year has gone on and is doing a ton of damage against left-handed pitching.

• .299/.386/.474 slash line in June
• .300/.412/.543 slash line vs. LHP

Logan Allen gets the ball for the Cleveland Guardians today, and he’s been struggling. The southpaw struggles to miss bats and issues up a ton of walks, leading to a 4.27 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

I was debating backing Torres over 1.5 bases at plus money, but feel more comfortable taking him to score as the leadoff man on the road.

Detroit has the second-best wRC+ vs. LHP this year (136), so I trust the lineup to drive Torres home once he gets on.

Key stat: Torres has scored six runs in his last six games, going 4-2 vs. this line.

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Best MLB picks

Ohtani under 0.5 runs (-108): Fading the best player on the best offence in baseball is risky business, but I think it makes sense here.

Ohtani is all too familiar with Valdez from his days with the Los Angeles Angels, and the head-to-head matchup skews heavily with the pitcher.

• Ohtani is 5-for-36 against Valdez with 12 strikeouts and six walks.

• His .169 xBA and .281 xSLG in those matchups indicate Valdez hasn’t gotten lucky.

Houston’s lefty is also on fire, with a 1.57 ERA in his last seven starts, so this seems like a good spot to throw down a rare fade on Ohtani.

Sheets over 0.5 RBI (+210): I backed Sheets on this market yesterday, and he went 2-for-4 without driving anyone in. But I’ll gladly go back to that well in a plus matchup today.

The outfielder hits behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Luis Arraez, which is right where we want to be for run production.

Especially against Texas Rangers southpaw Patrick Corbin, who has been MLB’s whipping boy over the past few seasons:

• 5.20 ERA or higher from 2021-2024
• 4.26 ERA this season
• 5.28 ERA in June

Corbin has generally done well to shut down left-hitting batters this season, holding them to a .209/.270/374 slash line. But Sheets is swinging a hot bat and has hit LHP well enough this year (.263 BA) for me to buy in.

MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 07/05/2025.

It’s the Fourth of July, and I expect Jackson Merrill and Andrew Benintendi to provide the fireworks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Merrill’s ability to torch right-handed pitching earned him runner-up NL Rookie of the Year votes last season. Tonight, he faces a struggling righty at home. Benintendi, meanwhile, has a plus matchup in a hitter-friendly venue.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 4.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Merrill to hit a home run (+430)

Merill is struggling right now, but I wouldn’t go as far as to call it a sophomore slump.

He’s still slashing .290/.352/.440 despite a poor June (.238 average, .339 SLG), and tonight, he gets a perfect slump-buster in Kumar Rocker.

• Merrill career vs. RHP: .308/.351/.518, 112 OPS+
• Kumar career vs. LHB: .321/.398/.486, 124 opponent OPS+

The Texas Rangers’ righty has gotten shelled away from home this year, with an 11.34 ERA and .400 opponent batting average.

Rocker’s 20.4% K rate (39th percentile) and 6.6% walk rate (77th percentile) mean opponents are putting the ball in play about 75% of the time.

And his 46.9% hard-hit rate (10th percentile) — qualified as balls batted above 95 mph — means those offerings are getting smashed.

Key stat: Merrill has hit 29 career home runs, and 22 have come against righties.

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Best HR predictions

Benintendi to hit a home run (+600): We’ve got a true dumpster fire of a series happening in Denver tonight when the Colorado Rockies host the Chicago White Sox.

The two squads have combined for 48 wins and a -313 run differential heading into July 4 — but there’s still value to be had.

Benintendi is hitting RHP well enough lately, sporting a .444 SLG over the last 30 days. In that span, he has a 6.4% walk rate and 7.7% K rate against righties. That means the ball is put in play roughly 85% of the time.

Now, he gets the thin air at Coors Field and a pitcher — Antonio Senzatela — who is utterly lost at the moment.

Senzatela (6.69 ERA) ranks in the first percentile for xERA (6.75), xBA (.333), and K rate (10.7%).

Benintendi has four HRs in his last 12 games, so I definitely dig this +600 price point.

MLB home run picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 07/04/2025.

The red-hot Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game set against the Los Angeles Angels at Rogers Centre on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto just swept the New York Yankees to take sole possession of the AL East, and is favoured to extend its winning streak to six games tonight. Eric Lauer (2.60 ERA) gets the ball for the Jays opposite Kyle Hendricks (4.66 ERA).

Check out my Angels vs. Blue Jays predictions for July 4, featuring Addison Barger and Jo Adell.

Angels vs. Blue Jays predictions

SGP: Blue Jays ML | Barger over 1.5 bases | Adell 1+ hits (+410)

Blue Jays ML (-159): Vibes are high in Toronto right now.

The Blue Jays just obliterated the Yankees over a four-game set, scoring 36 runs (9.0/game) and covering a -1.5 run line three times.

Toronto is now 7-1 in its last eight games while averaging 7.12 runs per game — I say the good times keep rolling, especially given the pitching mismatch tonight.

Lauer has been a pleasant surprise for the Jays, posting a 3.32 ERA since being moved to the starting rotation. The Angels have the second-worst batting average (.219) and highest K rate (28.0%) vs. LHP this season.

Hendricks, meanwhile, has a middling ERA and struggles to miss bats (ninth-percentile K rate).

He’s generally good at generating soft contact, but the Jays are mashing the ball right now, and I expect that to continue.

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MLB SGP legs

Barger over 1.5 bases (+114): Barger is the left-hitting power bat that the Jays have needed for years.

• The 25-year-old has gone deep in consecutive games, bringing his season-long slash line up to .272/.332/.521.

• His .562 SLG vs. RHP is the 16th-best mark in MLB among qualified hitters.

• Barger has an extra-base hit in five of his last seven outings.

Hendricks sports a 79th percentile walk rate in addition to having a very low K rate, meaning Barger will have opportunities to put the ball in play.

Adell over 0.5 hits (-182): Backing Adell to record a knock more than doubles this parlay’s value from +190 to +410. And with the way he’s playing, that sounds like a steal:

• Adell is currently batting .364 during a 14-game hit streak.

• The right-hitting outfielder is also batting .364 against LHP over the last 30 days.

Lauer has been good but not perfect since entering Toronto’s rotation. He gave up seven hits in 4.1 IP against the Boston Red Sox in his last start, and can definitely be hit.

Angels vs. Blue Jays predictions made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 07/04/2025.

It’s Independence Day south of the border, meaning we’ve got MLB games from noon till midnight.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Christian Yelich is on fire and Mookie Betts is slumping. But they both have favourable matchups against a pair of struggling pitchers and should find ways to produce. Before that, I’m looking toward Gavin Sheets to deliver an RBI for the San Diego Padres.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 4.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Yelich over 1.5 total bases (-108)

Yelich put a slow start to the year behind him by catching fire in the second half of June. Check out his numbers over the last 15 games:

• .390 batting average
• .695 slugging percentage
• 1.132 OPS
• Six doubles, four HRs

In that span, Yelich has a .315 xBA and a 53% hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. Both of those would rank in the 90th percentile or higher over a full season, so we know this is no fluke.

Can he sustain that type of production? Probably not. But tonight, he should be able to keep it going.

Yelich goes up against Sandy Alcantara, who sports an ugly 6.98 ERA. The righty ranks in the bottom-25 percentile for K rate, hard-hit rate, xERA and xBA.

Alcantara relies on a 4-seamer/sinker combo nearly 50% of his pitches which clocks in the upper-90s. Yelich is batting .325 with a .525 SLG against RHP fastballs over 95 mph.

Key stat: Yelich is 10-5 against this line in his last 15 games.

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Best MLB picks

Betts to score (-117): I’m sure more would be made about Betts’ dip in production if the Dodgers didn’t have an embarrassment of riches to cover it up.

The eight-time All-Star is posting career lows in batting average (.246), slugging percentage (.383) and OPS (.704) — so why back him?

Betts has had a ton of success against Houston Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr., and McCullers is really fighting it at the moment.

• Betts vs. McCullers: 7-for-15, .619 OBP, 1 K
• McCullers 2025 stats: 6.61 ERA, 1.62 WHIP

The righty has a sixth percentile walk rate (12.9%), which is another boon for this wager.

Sheets over 0.5 RBI (+180): Sheets is far from the biggest name on San Diego’s star-studded roster, but that’s the point.

He hits behind guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Luis Arraez, which is an A-plus spot from run production.

The Padres face Texas Rangers righty Kumar Rocker, who is getting tee’d up in his sophomore season:

• 6.13 ERA (5.55 xERA)
• .302 BA (.297 xERA)
• 1.54 WHIP

The left-hitting Sheets has a .267/.332/.490 slash line against RHP. That’s not amazing but it’s still better than his numbers against lefties, indicating a slight platoon advantage.

MLB prop picks made at 9:07 a.m. ET on 07/04/2025.

The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up their four-game series in the desert on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: San Francisco’s offence has gone ice cold lately, averaging just 2.4 runs in its last five games. But the Giants have a sizeable pitching advantage tonight with Robbie Ray starting opposite Brandon Pfaadt, and are favoured to win.

Check out my Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions, including props on Rafael Devers and Geraldo Perdomo.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions

Parlay: Giants +0.5 F5 | Devers over 1.5 bases | Perdomo over 0.5 hits (+330)

Giants +0.5 – first 5 innings (-180): It’s hard to back the Giants in any capacity right now. San Fran went a combined 1-5 against the Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox before losing the first two games of this series against the D-backs.

But the Giants won last night, and now have their ace on the mound with a chance to make it two in a row.

Ray is flashing elite form at the moment, boasting a 2.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 17 starts. He also ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA (2.91), xBA (.208) and K rate (27.5%).

Pfaadt, meanwhile, has been a disaster for the Diamondbacks:

• 5.38 ERA (6.80 xERA)
• .280 BA (.319 xBA)
• 19.1% K rate (29th percentile)

So in spite of their recent struggles, backing the Giants to at least be tied through five innings seems safe to me.

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MLB SGP legs

Devers over 1.5 bases (-110): Devers is struggling to find footing with his new team, but Pfaadt is an A-plus slumpbuster.

The only thing the righty has done well this year is limit walks (5.6% BB rate, 85th percentile), which is what I love to see when targeting a bases prop.

Pfaadt is going to give Devers something to hit, and it’s probably going to get hit quite hard.

Devers ranks in the 98th percentile for hard hit rate and has made a career out of crushing right-handed pitching (.548 SLG, 111 OPS+).

Perdomo over 0.5 hits (-205): If you’re looking for value, this is a great way to double the parlay’s payout from +163 to +330.

The switch-hitting Perdomo has been on fire this series, and does his best work against lefties.

• Perdomo vs. Giants: 6-for-12
• Perdomo vs. LHP: .337/.394/.453 slash line

The shortstop is far from a power bat, but that’s fine.

Think of Perdomo as a Luis Arraez light. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in K rate, Whiff rate, and square up percentage, and in the 16th percentile for hard-hit rate.

He should be able to put one in play against Ray tonight.

Giants vs. Dodgers predictions made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 07/03/2025.

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