It’s the Fourth of July, and I expect Jackson Merrill and Andrew Benintendi to provide the fireworks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Merrill’s ability to torch right-handed pitching earned him runner-up NL Rookie of the Year votes last season. Tonight, he faces a struggling righty at home. Benintendi, meanwhile, has a plus matchup in a hitter-friendly venue.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 4.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Merrill to hit a home run (+375)
Merill is struggling right now, but I wouldn’t go as far as to call it a sophomore slump.
He’s still slashing .290/.352/.440 despite a poor June (.238 average, .339 SLG), and tonight, he gets a perfect slump-buster in Kumar Rocker.
- Merrill career vs. RHP: .308/.351/.518, 112 OPS+
- Kumar career vs. LHB: .321/.398/.486, 124 opponent OPS+
The Texas Rangers’ righty has gotten shelled away from home this year, with an 11.34 ERA and .400 opponent batting average.
Rocker’s 20.4% K rate (39th percentile) and 6.6% walk rate (77th percentile) mean opponents are putting the ball in play about 75% of the time.
And his 46.9% hard-hit rate (10th percentile) — qualified as balls batted above 95 mph — means those offerings are getting smashed.
Key stat: Merrill has hit 29 career home runs, and 22 have come against righties.
Best HR predictions
Benintendi to hit a home run (+475): We’ve got a true dumpster fire of a series happening in Denver tonight when the Colorado Rockies host the Chicago White Sox.
The two squads have combined for 48 wins and a -313 run differential heading into July 4 — but there’s still value to be had.
Benintendi is hitting RHP well enough lately, sporting a .444 SLG over the last 30 days. In that span, he has a 6.4% walk rate and 7.7% K rate against righties. That means the ball is put in play roughly 85% of the time.
Now, he gets the thin air at Coors Field and a pitcher — Antonio Senzatela — who is utterly lost at the moment.
Senzatela (6.69 ERA) ranks in the first percentile for xERA (6.75), xBA (.333), and K rate (10.7%).
Benintendi has four HRs in his last 12 games, so I definitely dig this +475 price point.
MLB home run picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 07/04/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.