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MLB home run picks July 3: Bet on Andy Pages, Ronald Acuna Jr. to go yard

Andy Pages and Ronaldo Acuna Jr. headline today’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Pages is having a breakout year with the Los Angeles Dodgers and gets a chance to do more damage at home against the Chicago White Sox. Before that, look for Acuna to attack hard-throwing righty Jose Soriano.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 3.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Pages to hit a home run (+390)

It doesn’t seem fair that the Dodges get to slide in Pages to their already-stacked roster.

The sophomore centre fielder ranks inside MLB’s top 25 in batting average (.293), home runs (17) and RBI (58). Pages has already surpassed last year’s HR and RBI totals in just over half as many games.

He’s a free swinger who doesn’t take a lot of walks, which is always great for a bet like this. Especially when he’s facing a fly ball pitcher who is getting rocked.

Aaron Civale (4.74 ERA) ranks in the seventh percentile for ground ball rate and the 27th percentile for barrel rate. Chicago’s newly acquired righty has given up 18 hits in 17 innings since joining the club, with two leaving the yard.

Pages also runs reverse splits against righties (.539 SLG), meaning he hits them harder than southpaws (.430 SLG).

Key stat: Dodger Stadium is the most homer-friendly park in the majors for right-hitting players, and Pages is slugging .616 at home.

Embed: #115461

Best HR predictions

Acuna to hit a home run (+475): Acuna came off the IL in late May and immediately started raking, bashing three home runs and batting .378 in his first eight games.

He’s tapered off a little bit since, but still hit six home runs in June with a 1.087 OPS. With that said, I’m loving this price on a former 40-40 player in a plus matchup.

Acuna has always hit righties well, and this year is no different (.388/.487/.673 slash line). Soriano has a seventh percentile hard-hit rate and leans heavily on a sinker clocking in at over 95mph.

That’s good news for us, because Acuna is batting .470 with a .583 SLG against that offering this season.

MLB home run picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 07/03/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop picks July 3: Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Clark Schmidt on Thursday

The Toronto Blue Jays are one win away from sweeping the New York Yankees and sitting alone atop the AL East.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence has exploded for 28 runs across the first three games of this series, but New York is a slight favourite with Clarke Schmidt pitching opposite Chris Bassitt. The Yankees’ righty was spectacular in June, posting a 1.95 ERA.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 3, featuring Schmidt and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Schmidt over 17.5 outs (-167)

Schmidt’s run of dominance actually started on May 28, when he threw six shutout innings against the Los Angeles Angels.

Take a look at his numbers from that game onward:

1.64 ERA
.157 BA (.172 xBA)
24% K rate, 4% BB rate
18+ outs in five of six starts

Schmidt’s .172 xBA indicates those results were no fluke, and his 4% walk rate tells me he won’t burn through pitches against Toronto.

The righty is a contact pitcher, and the Jays strike out at the lowest clip in MLB. So it’s also important that Schmidt ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity.

New York has had to use plenty of relievers this series and is back at it tomorrow for a Subway Series against the Mets. I’m sure Aaron Boone would love to give Schmidt a longer leash tonight.

Key stat: Schmidt has pitched into the sixth inning in 10 of his 13 starts, clearing this line eight times.

Quick picks

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+100): I’m not expecting a no-hitter from Schmidt, and think Vladdy is the man to target on Toronto’s side of things.

Guerrero is batting .302 with a 1.026 OPS in his last 15 games. Perhaps more importantly, he has only two strikeouts in his last eight outings.

Putting the ball in play is key for a bases prop, and Guerrero has done that plenty against Schmidt.

He is just 2-for-13 against the righty, but only one of those at-bats ended in a strikeout. And he has a .322 xBA and .519 xSLG in those matchups.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:06 a.m. ET on 07/03/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop picks July 3: Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Clark Schmidt on Thursday

The Toronto Blue Jays are one win away from sweeping the New York Yankees and sitting alone atop the AL East.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence has exploded for 28 runs across the first three games of this series, but New York is a slight favourite with Clarke Schmidt pitching opposite Chris Bassitt. The Yankees’ righty was spectacular in June, posting a 1.95 ERA.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 3, featuring Schmidt and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Schmidt over 17.5 outs (-141)

Schmidt’s run of dominance actually started on May 28, when he threw six shutout innings against the Los Angeles Angels.

Take a look at his numbers from that game onward:

1.64 ERA
.157 BA (.172 xBA)
24% K rate, 4% BB rate
18+ outs in five of six starts

Schmidt’s .172 xBA indicates those results were no fluke, and his 4% walk rate tells me he won’t burn through pitches against Toronto.

The righty is a contact pitcher, and the Jays strike out at the lowest clip in MLB. So it’s also important that Schmidt ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity.

New York has had to use plenty of relievers this series and is back at it tomorrow for a Subway Series against the Mets. I’m sure Aaron Boone would love to give Schmidt a longer leash tonight.

Key stat: Schmidt has pitched into the sixth inning in 10 of his 13 starts, clearing this line eight times.

Embed: #115455

Quick picks

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (-106): I’m not expecting a no-hitter from Schmidt, and think Vladdy is the man to target on Toronto’s side of things.

Guerrero is batting .302 with a 1.026 OPS in his last 15 games. Perhaps more importantly, he has only two strikeouts in his last eight outings.

Putting the ball in play is key for a bases prop, and Guerrero has done that plenty against Schmidt.

He is just 2-for-13 against the righty, but only one of those at-bats ended in a strikeout. And he has a .322 xBA and .519 xSLG in those matchups.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:06 a.m. ET on 07/03/2025.

Second-round Wimbledon predictions for Canada’s top stars: Tennis picks on Auger-Aliassime, Diallo and Fernandez

Three Canadians are in action during the second round at Wimbledon on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Felix Auger-Aliassime clawed back from a 2-1 set deficit to win his opener and is favoured to beat German Jan-Lennard Struff. Leylah Fernandez is also expected to advance to the third round, while Gabriel Diallo is in tough against fifth-seed Taylor Fritz.

Check out my top Wimbledon predictions for July 2.

Wimbledon predictions: July 2

Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime -1.5 sets (-122)

I think this is a no-brainer, and believe there’s some good value backing Auger-Aliassime to win in straight sets at +230.

The Canadian is having a great year, reaching three ATP singles finals on hard court and winning two of them. He struggled mightily on clay, but is back on grass, which is historically his best outdoor surface:

FAA has a 65.13% win rate on grass.

He is 6-3 on grass this year, winning three of those matchups in straight sets.

Struff, meanwhile, has really been fighting it. The 35-year-old is a miserable 6-17 this season, getting destroyed on clay and hard court.

He is 2-2 on grass and did advance to the third round at Wimbledon last year, but he’s just 30-37 lifetime on this surface (44.78%).

Key stat: Auger-Aliassime beat Struff 6-3, 6-0, 4-6, 6-1 at the Australian Open earlier this year.

Embed: #115420

Full tennis betting markets

Diallo Wimbledon prediction vs. Fritz

Fritz -1.5 sets (-141): Fritz showed everyone that he has plenty of dog in him after erasing a 2-0 set deficit against the hard-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in Round 1.

The match lasted over 3.5 hours and took two days to complete, but the American got it done.

Now, he has another stern test in Diallo, who won his first ATP singles title two weeks ago. I think Fritz can handle it.

Diallo’s greatest asset is a strong serve (83.2% service games won, 19th in serve rating), but Fritz just handled the best server on the planet.

Perricard was sending the ball in at over 150 mph and ranks first on the ATP in serve rating.

The rest of Diallo’s game is rugged, and quite honestly, not up to par with someone like Fritz, who is 9-1 on grass this year and just defended his Lexus Eastbourne Open title.

Best bet for Fernandez vs. Siegemund

Fernandez -1.5 sets (-124): Fernandez has to be feeling good about her chances against Germany’s Laura Siegemund.

The Canadian has become quite the grass player, sporting an 11-6 record over the last two years. She’s also won four of her last six matches on the surface.

Fernandez’s most recent loss was to Jasmine Paolini at the Bad Homburg Open, but it was extremely competitive. She lost both sets in a tiebreak to the Italian, who is seeded fourth at this tournament and reached the final last year.

You simply can’t knock Fernandez for that performance.

And it seems Siegemund’s best years of tennis are behind her, as the 37-year-old has an 11-16 record this year.

Both players are also slated to play a doubles match tomorrow, and that should favour Fernandez.

Wimbledon predictions made at 12:45 p.m. on 07/01/2025.

Second-round Wimbledon predictions for Canada’s top stars: Tennis picks on Auger-Aliassime, Diallo and Fernandez

Three Canadians are in action during the second round at Wimbledon on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Felix Auger-Aliassime clawed back from a 2-1 set deficit to win his opener and is favoured to beat German Jan-Lennard Struff. Leylah Fernandez is also expected to advance to the third round, while Gabriel Diallo is a heavy underdog against fifth-seed Taylor Fritz.

Check out my top Wimbledon predictions for July 2.

Wimbledon predictions: July 2

Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime -1.5 sets (-125)

I think this is a no-brainer, and believe there’s some good value backing Auger-Aliassime to win in straight sets at +230.

The Canadian is having a great year, reaching three ATP singles finals on hard court and winning two of them. He struggled mightily on clay, but is back on grass, which is historically his best outdoor surface:

FAA has a 65.13% win rate on grass.

He is 6-3 on grass this year, winning three of those matchups in straight sets.

Struff, meanwhile, has really been fighting it. The 35-year-old is a miserable 6-17 this season, getting destroyed on clay and hard court.

He is 2-2 on grass and did advance to the third round at Wimbledon last year, but he’s just 30-37 lifetime on this surface (44.78%).

Key stat: Auger-Aliassime beat Struff 6-3, 6-0, 4-6, 6-1 at the Australian Open earlier this year.

Full tennis betting markets

Diallo Wimbledon prediction vs. Fritz

Fritz -1.5 sets (-143): Fritz showed everyone that he has plenty of dog in him after erasing a 2-0 set deficit against the hard-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in Round 1.

The match lasted over 3.5 hours and took two days to complete, but the American got it done.

Now, he has another stern test in Diallo, who won his first ATP singles title two weeks ago. I think Fritz can handle it.

Diallo’s greatest asset is a strong serve (83.2% service games won, 19th in serve rating), but Fritz just handled the best server on the planet.

Perricard was sending the ball in at over 150 mph and ranks first on the ATP in serve rating.

The rest of Diallo’s game is rugged, and quite honestly, not up to par with someone like Fritz, who is 9-1 on grass this year and just defended his Lexus Eastbourne Open title.

Best bet for Fernandez vs. Siegemund

Fernandez -1.5 sets (-138): Fernandez has to be feeling good about her chances against Germany’s Laura Siegemund.

The Canadian has become quite the grass player, sporting an 11-6 record over the last two years. She’s also won four of her last six matches on the surface.

Fernandez’s most recent loss was to Jasmine Paolini at the Bad Homburg Open, but it was extremely competitive. She lost both sets in a tiebreak to the Italian, who is seeded fourth at this tournament and reached the final last year.

You simply can’t knock Fernandez for that performance.

And it seems Siegemund’s best years of tennis are behind her, as the 37-year-old has an 11-16 record this year.

Both players are also slated to play a doubles match tomorrow, and that should favour Fernandez.

Wimbledon predictions made at 12:45 p.m. on 07/01/2025.

MLB home run picks July 1: Back Ketel Marte, Bryce Harper to go deep

Bryce Harper and Ketel Marte headline Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Marte is swinging a red-hot bat and goes up against San Francisco’s Hayden Birdsong, who is struggling to keep the ball in the yard. Harper, meanwhile, has a favourable matchup in his second start since returning from the injured list.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 1.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Marte to hit a home run (+350)

Marte is MLB’s best offensive second baseman right now, and it’s not particularly close. The 31-year-old leads all qualified hitters in the position group in:

Batting average (.300)
Slugging percentage (.592)
fWAR (3.0)
wRC+ (173)

His 17 home runs are second to Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe, but mind you, Lowe has played 21 additional games.

And Marte has been on fire over his last 10 outings, batting .350 with five home runs and a 1.211 OPS, so I’m hoping he’ll catch Lowe tonight.

Birdsong profiles as the type of pitcher who can help make that happen.

The righty has a 6.38 ERA this month and has given up four home runs in his last three starts. Birdsong’s 46.7% hard hit rate ranks in the 11th percentile, per Baseball Savant, and his 37.1% ground ball rate ranks in the 23rd percentile.

Marte is 1-for-2 against Birdsong with a home run.

Key stat: The switch-hitting Marte is slugging .644 vs. RHP this year.

Best HR predictions

Harper to hit a home run (+300): Here’s hoping Harper’s injury problems are behind him.

The two-time MVP missed 22 games with right wrist inflammation and was reinstated last night, when he went 0-for-2 with a walk and a hit by pitch.

Is it difficult to get into a groove coming off the IL? Sure. But Harper did go deep against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 3 after missing a handful of games with an elbow contusion.

And tonight, he has a solid matchup against San Diego’s Nick Pivetta.

Pivetta has given up nine home runs in his last 10 starts (1.467 HR/9).

The righty is a fly ball pitcher, generating a ground ball on just 32.6% of balls in play (ninth percentile).

Harper is 4-for-13 vs. Pivetta with two HRs.

Harper hasn’t produced at an electric clip just yet, but his .285 xBA (85th percentile) and .503 xSLG (81st percentile) indicate good things should be coming.

MLB home run picks made at 9:51 a.m. ET on 07/01/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Canada Day best bets: Take the over on Toronto’s team total, back Alejandro Kirk

The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees for a Canada Day matinee.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won the series opener, 5-4, and now sits just two games behind New York in a crowded AL East. The Yankees are favoured to win today behind southpaw Max Fried, who sports MLB’s second-best ERA (1.92), while Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for July 1, featuring Alejandro Kirk.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (+120)

Fading an arm like Fried is risky business, especially given the month he just had.

New York’s southpaw logged five consecutive quality starts (6.0+ IP, three or fewer earned runs), and posted a 1.91 ERA.

But I think Toronto is capable of doing some damage in front of a packed home crowd on Tuesday.

The Blue Jays’ season seemingly turned around with a four-game sweep of the Athletics at home from May 29 to June 2. These are their offensive ranks from then onward:

1st in K rate (14.8%)
2nd in batting average (.280)
2nd in wRC+ (122)
4th in OPS (.788)

And it’s not like Toronto is slowing down — it ranks inside the top 10 for K rate, batting average and wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Fried’s 1.92 ERA and .204 opponent batting average are stellar, but his 3.30 xERA and .242 xBA indicate he’s been slightly lucky.

Ket stat: Toronto is averaging 5.71 runs across its last seven games, going 6-1 agianst this line.

Quick pick

Kirk over 1.5 bases (+155): This seems like a great price for Kirk, who had a stellar June and crushes left-handed pitching.

Toronto’s catcher slashed .337/.385/.528 in June with five doubles and four home runs.

He is batting .323 against LHPs this year and is 2-for-6 lifetime against Fried. In those at-bats, he has a .440 xBA and .741 xSLG.

Fried rarely issues free passes (4.9% walk rate, 93rd percentile) and Kirk seldom strikes out (9.8% K rate, 98th percentile). That means the ball should be put in play on the majority of his at-bats today, which is great for a bases prop.

Kirk ranks in the 98th percentile for hard-hit rate (55.9%), so I expect those balls to travel.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 07/01/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Canada Day best bets: Take the over on Toronto’s team total, back Alejandro Kirk

The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees for a Canada Day matinee.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won the series opener, 5-4, and now sits just two games behind New York in a crowded AL East. The Yankees are favoured to win today behind southpaw Max Fried, who sports MLB’s second-best ERA (1.92), while Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for July 1, featuring Alejandro Kirk.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (+106)

Fading an arm like Fried is risky business, especially given the month he just had.

New York’s southpaw logged five consecutive quality starts (6.0+ IP, three or fewer earned runs), and posted a 1.91 ERA.

But I think Toronto is capable of doing some damage in front of a packed home crowd on Tuesday.

The Blue Jays’ season seemingly turned around with a four-game sweep of the Athletics at home from May 29 to June 2. These are their offensive ranks from then onward:

1st in K rate (14.8%)
2nd in batting average (.280)
2nd in wRC+ (122)
4th in OPS (.788)

And it’s not like Toronto is slowing down — it ranks inside the top 10 for K rate, batting average and wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Fried’s 1.92 ERA and .204 opponent batting average are stellar, but his 3.30 xERA and .242 xBA indicate he’s been slightly lucky.

Ket stat: Toronto is averaging 5.71 runs across its last seven games, going 6-1 agianst this line.

Embed: #115405

Quick pick

Kirk over 1.5 bases (+155): This seems like a great price for Kirk, who had a stellar June and crushes left-handed pitching.

Toronto’s catcher slashed .337/.385/.528 in June with five doubles and four home runs.

He is batting .323 against LHPs this year and is 2-for-6 lifetime against Fried. In those at-bats, he has a .440 xBA and .741 xSLG.

Fried rarely issues free passes (4.9% walk rate, 93rd percentile) and Kirk seldom strikes out (9.8% K rate, 98th percentile). That means the ball should be put in play on the majority of his at-bats today, which is great for a bases prop.

Kirk ranks in the 98th percentile for hard-hit rate (55.9%), so I expect those balls to travel.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 07/01/2025.

MLB home run picks July 1: Back Ketel Marte, Bryce Harper to go deep

Bryce Harper and Ketel Marte headline Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Marte is swinging a red-hot bat and goes up against San Francisco’s Hayden Birdsong, who is struggling to keep the ball in the yard. Harper, meanwhile, has a favourable matchup in his second start since returning from the injured list.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 1.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Marte to hit a home run (+390)

Marte is MLB’s best offensive second baseman right now, and it’s not particularly close. The 31-year-old leads all qualified hitters in the position group in:

Batting average (.300)
Slugging percentage (.592)
fWAR (3.0)
wRC+ (173)

His 17 home runs are second to Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe, but mind you, Lowe has played 21 additional games.

And Marte has been on fire over his last 10 outings, batting .350 with five home runs and a 1.211 OPS, so I’m hoping he’ll catch Lowe tonight.

Birdsong profiles as the type of pitcher who can help make that happen.

The righty has a 6.38 ERA this month and has given up four home runs in his last three starts. Birdsong’s 46.7% hard hit rate ranks in the 11th percentile, per Baseball Savant, and his 37.1% ground ball rate ranks in the 23rd percentile.

Marte is 1-for-2 against Birdsong with a home run.

Key stat: The switch-hitting Marte is slugging .644 vs. RHP this year.

Embed: #115399

Best HR predictions

Harper to hit a home run (+400): Here’s hoping Harper’s injury problems are behind him.

The two-time MVP missed 22 games with right wrist inflammation and was reinstated last night, when he went 0-for-2 with a walk and a hit by pitch.

Is it difficult to get into a groove coming off the IL? Sure. But Harper did go deep against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 3 after missing a handful of games with an elbow contusion.

And tonight, he has a solid matchup against San Diego’s Nick Pivetta.

Pivetta has given up nine home runs in his last 10 starts (1.467 HR/9).

The righty is a fly ball pitcher, generating a ground ball on just 32.6% of balls in play (ninth percentile).

Harper is 4-for-13 vs. Pivetta with two HRs.

Harper hasn’t produced at an electric clip just yet, but his .285 xBA (85th percentile) and .503 xSLG (81st percentile) indicate good things should be coming.

MLB home run picks made at 9:51 a.m. ET on 07/01/2025.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds 2025: Joey Chestnut favoured in his Fourth of July return

The king of professional eating is hungry to reclaim his throne.

The latest: Joey Chestnut returns to Coney Island after missing last year’s event due to a sponsorship dispute with Nathan’s. He’s the overwhelming favourite to demolish the competition and add to his record 16 titles.

Here are the latest Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds for the competition on July 4.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds

Check out the latest odds to win Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Click odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Competitor	Betting odds
Joey Chestnut	-3,335
Geoffrey Esper	+1,600
Patrick Bertoletti	+1,600
James Webb	+2,500
Nick Wehry	+3,300
Derek Hendrickson	+5,000
George Chiger	+5,000
Max Stanford	+5,000
Radim Dvoracek	+5,000
Any other participant	+6,600

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds as of 2:45 p.m. ET on 06/30/2025.

The favourite: Joey Chestnut (-3,335)

You don’t tug on Superman’s cape, you don’t spit into the wind, and you sure as heck don’t ban Chestnut from competing on the grandest of stages.

Last year was a black eye on the storied history of this Fourth of July competition, and now the GOAT is ready to set the record straight.

Patrick Bertoletti kept the seat warm for Chestnut in 2024, eating a winning 58 HBD (hot dogs and buns) in 10 minutes. Chestnut responded by eating 57 HBD in a non-sponsored event … in just five minutes.

Father Time comes for us all, but it doesn’t look like the 41-year-old from Fulton County, Kentucky, intends on slowing down.

Chestnut’s over/under on HBD is 71.5, shaded to the over. The next closest eater is Bertoletti at 50.5.

With that said, this isn’t much of a competition, but rather, a re-coronation.

Number of hot dogs eaten	Odds
Over 71.5 hot dogs	-134
Under 71.5 hot dogs	+100

Nathan’s top contenders

Patrick Bertoletti, Geoffrey Esper (+1,600)

Hats off to Bertoletti for capitalizing on last year’s weak field.

After all, would you blame the Houston Rockets for winning the NBA Championship while Michael Jordan was off playing baseball? I don’t think so.

Bertoletti didn’t take his foot off the gas after winning this competition last year, setting three records to close out the year:

18.475 pounds of blueberries (July 13)
220 Chicken Nuggets (July 26)
46 four-ounce NORM’s Buttermilk Hotcakes (Nov. 16)

Another contender is Esper, who Major League Eating describes as “a quiet, industrious man who says very little but eats very much. It is said the first word he ever spoke was ‘work.'”

The 50-year-old is a teacher by trade, but this is his true calling.

Esper holds two seemingly unbreakable records: eating 83 slices of John’s Incredible Pizza in 10 minutes, and 281 Hooters wings in the same amount of time.