A star-studded series kicks off in New York on Friday night when the Yankees host the Chicago Cubs.
The pregame narrative: New York’s bats have come alive during a four-game winning streak, and the Yankees are favoured to keep things rolling behind Carlos Rodon. Chris Flexen serves as an opener for Chicago, and he’s been hit hard by the Yanks before.
Check out my Cubs vs. Yankees prop picks for July 11, featuring Kyle Tucker and Giancarlo Stanton
Cubs vs. Yankees prop picks
Best bet: Tucker over 0.5 runs (-112)
Tucker thrives with a platoon advantage, which he won’t have tonight — at least through the early goings of the game.
But his lefty/righty splits aren’t quite as pronounced as they’ve been in years past, and he’s been consistent at the plate lately.
- Tucker vs. LHPs: .268/.365/.491
- Tucker vs. RHPs: .292/.398/.519
The Cubs’ No. 2 hitter has a hit in 11 of his last 15 games, batting .298 in that span and scoring 12 runs.
Tucker’s advanced metrics are amazing (90th-percentile xBA, 87th-percentile K rate, 95th-percentile walk rate). He also has a decent amount of familiarity with Rodon, going 3-for-12 with a .313 xBA in those at-bats.
New York’s righty has a sky-high K rate, but Tucker isn’t one to go down on strikes often. Rodon also struggles with issuing walks, so I can see Tucker finding his way on the basepaths one way or another.
After that, it’s up to Chicago’s red-hot lineup to drive him in.
Key stat: Chicago is averaging the most runs per game (5.41) in MLB.
Quick pick
Stanton over 1.5 bases (+100): New York needed Stanton to get going, and he’s delivered. The big man has caught fire during the team’s winning streak, going 5-for-14 (.357) with two home runs and a double.
I’m hopeful he can carry that momentum into what should be a favourable matchup.
Stanton is 2-for-8 against Flexen with two Ks. But he has generated a .317 xBA and .646 xSLG in those at-bats.
Chicago’s opener has dreadful swing-and-miss stuff (fifth-percentile whiff rate, third-percentile K rate) and rarely walks batters (75th-percentile walk rate).
The big man should have something to hit his first two times through the order, and after that, he’s as good a bet as any to cash this wager on one swing.
Cubs vs. Yankees prop picks made at 9:00 a.m. ET on 07/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.