The Open Championship is here, and with it comes the final chance to capture major glory in 2025.
Royal Portrush and Northern Ireland host for the second time this century after its successful re-introduction to the Open rotation in 2019. Six years ago, inclement weather played a big part in Shane Lowry’s win. Mother Nature will surely have more in store for the players this week.
Other factors to consider before making Open Championship bets include course history, player form, and more. Let’s get into it.
Know the course before making Open Championship bets
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Augusta National is the only major venue we see every year. With that in mind, it’s a little tricky to nail down what we’re getting from Portrush.
But we’re not fighting in the dark, and there are a bunch of tidbits I’d consider “must-knows” for this year’s Open Championship.
- Portrush became the first Open not held on the island of Great Britain when it debuted in 1951. It returned 68 years later in 2019 and plays at a 7,381-yard par-71.
- The Dunluce links don’t feature your typical out-and-in links routing after hole five. Instead, there are directional changes off plenty of tees. That means many holes require different shots depending on the weather.
- Its location on the coast of Northern Ireland is littered with undulation, endless dunes, pot bunkers, and knee-high gorse. Playing proper shot shapes and trajectories is key to avoiding trouble off the tee and hitting preferred landing zones on greens.
- Portrush’s green complexes are extensively contoured, more so than any other course outside of perhaps St. Andrews. The fescue-based greens will run slower than your average PGA Tour venue, heightening the value of lag putting.
- Let’s circle back on the danger: Low basins, ravines, thick gorse and cavernous bunkers. No matter how good a player is, they’ll end up in the junk at some point — but minimizing that is key. Strong iron play and a well-rounded short game are prerequisites for success here.
Who fits the bill at Portrush?
Look at the leaderboard from 2019.
Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Lee Westwood, and more all flourished because of accurate driving. That doesn’t necessarily mean bombers have no shot, but you can’t pray for good lies over 72 holes.
Some of the most accurate drivers this year are Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka, Aaron Rai, and Corey Conners.
As for an elite short game? I’ve tracked the best strokes gained: around-the-greens players at the last five Opens. Jason Day, Tyrrell Hatton, Maverick McNealy and Patrick Cantlay all gained more than 0.8 shots per round.
Good ball striking travels everywhere. Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, John Parry, Lowry and Straka rank in the top five for SG: APP over the last 36 rounds.
In an article for Golf Digest, European Ryder Cup vice-captain Edoardo Molinari wrote that he expects the greens to roll at a “10 or 11” on the Stimpmeter — far below the tour average of 14.
He highlights Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith and Matt Fitzpatrick as players who gain over 0.7 shots per round on greens rolling below 11 on the Stimpmeter over the last five years.
Be sure to check in for my Open Championship bets, featuring predictions on Rahm, Hovland and a +10,000 long shot to win.
Making the best Open Championship bets: Mother Nature reigns supreme
The weather can change in a snap at these tournaments, so take this projection with a grain of salt and be sure to check for updates as we inch closer to Thursday.
That said, there is typically a massive wave split at Open Championships. For those unacquainted, that means either the early-late or late-early tee-time will be more advantageous.
This graphic, provided by DataGolf’s “Letzig’s Latest” newsletter, highlights the average stroke discrepancy for the early-late wave (blue) or late-early wave (orange) at every major championship from 2004-2023:
As you can see, seven of the 15 most volatile rounds have been at the Open. The ninth-largest split was at Royal Portrush in 2019, where the late-early wave played 2.4 shots easier than the early-late wave.
Lowry got the short end of the stick, but still managed to win by a whopping six shots — talk about gritty.
At the time of writing, it looks like Friday afternoon will have some blustery winds and rain, while the morning will be relatively calm. That means it should favour those in the late/early wave.
Thursday’s tee times are out, and here are some notable names scheduled in the distinct waves:
- Early/late wave: Scheffler, Morikawa, Lowry, Conners, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele
- Late/early wave: Hovland, Fleetwood, Rai, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Nick Taylor
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Scottie Scheffler and the rest
Enough about the weather. How about the golfers?
One name stands above the rest, and he’s looking for major No. 4 this week. Scheffler has put together a historic run of golf over the last two years, capturing 12 titles, including two majors and an Olympic gold.
Over the last three months, Scheffler has gained an average of 3.09 strokes per round. That’s more than +0.7 shots greater than the next closest player, Rahm.
So, should you just put all your chips in on Scheffler? I wouldn’t go that far.
The World No. 1 has yet to tame the links, finishing T8, T21, T23, and T7 at the Open Championship. Most players would kill for a resume like that, though, and it’s reasonable to say Scheffler has played near his floor at these events.
Here is a list of the top 10 players by strokes gained at the last five Opens (minimum three starts) dating back to Royal Portrush in 2019:
| Player | Top 10s (# of starts) | Best finish since 2019 | SG: Total |
| Cameron Young | 2 (3) | Second (2022) | 2.62 |
| Shane Lowry | 2 (5) | Winner (2019) | 2.55 |
| Jon Rahm | 3 (5) | T2 (2023) | 2.45 |
| Collin Morikawa | 1 (4) | Winner (2021) | 2.11 |
| Xander Schauffele | 1 (5) | Winner (2024) | 2.10 |
| Jordan Spieth | 2 (5) | Second (2022) | 2.05 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 3 (5) | Second (2019) | 2.02 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 2 (5) | T7 (2024) | 2.02 |
| Brian Harman | 2 (5) | Winner (2024) | 1.92 |
| Matthew Jordan | 2 (3) | T10 (2023, 2024) | 1.85 |
A noticeable omission from that list is McIlroy, who ranks 16th. He has two missed cuts — including one here in 2019 — and posted two top sixes.
The Northern Irishman is coming off a runner-up finish at the Scottish Open and is second on the odds board this week.
But back to Scheffler, who, like Rahm, Fleetwood and Young, has been knocking at the door without a win.
The Texan has struggled with putting at this event, losing an average of 0.8 strokes per round. Last week at the Scottish Open, he was first in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 64th in strokes gained: putting.
Maybe the slower-than-usual greens at Portrush will help Scheffler out, or maybe they’ll present a new type of challenge. But if he can get the ball rolling, watch out.
Open championship bets: Ryder Cup implications, LIV and legacy
If you want to dig into some narratives, there is no shortage of storylines for this major.
The Ryder Cup is just around the corner, and plenty of spots on both teams are up for grabs.
Keegan Bradley — the American captain — is who everyone is focused on. A win or a high finish could propel him into the top-six points list to automatically make the squad.
Bradley is an accurate driver and has a great short game, but he has missed five straight cuts at the Open Championship. This venue sets up as one that favours his game, so perhaps he can snap that poor run of form.
On the European side, DataGolf projects Rai and Fitzpatrick to be among the golfers sitting right on the bubble.
Both fit the mould for success at Portrush, and the latter is in solid form ahead of this event. I like Fitzpatrick’s chances of having a great week.
Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau headline LIV’s field, and both should be shoo-ins to make their respective Ryder Cup teams.
A win for either player at this event would do a lot for legacy, though, moving Rahm one step closer to completing the career grand slam or raising DeChambeau’s major count to three.
Another name worth touching on is Joaquin Niemann.
The Chilean seemingly wins a LIV event every other week but has just one major top 10 to his name. His diverse shot selection and low ball trajectory should be a benefit at links courses, so we’ll see if he can put it all together this week.
Here’s what we know for sure: Weather might play a factor, but winning the Claret Jug is no fluke. A pure test of golf is coming, and only a well-rounded and mentally tough player will emerge victorious.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.