Avery Perri

Two hitters and one pitcher make up Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies combined for 33 runs on Friday, but southpaw Austin Gomber should be able to work deep into today’s game. Elsewhere, look for Manny Machado to stay red-hot in a plus matchup.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Saturday, Aug. 2, featuring Luis Robert Jr.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Gomber over 15.5 outs (+116)

On a day with Paul Skenes, Zach Wheeler, Tarik Skubal and Spencer Strider pitching, my favourite pitcher prop is on a guy with a 6.28 ERA throwing at one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball.

That’s a tough sell, but I’ll explain why it’s worth a bet.

Yesterday’s game at Coors Field was a barnburner and forced the Rockies to use four relievers in a bulk role, with each throwing two-plus innings.

Gomber should have a long leash tonight, and he’s going up against a Pirates team that really struggles to hit left-handed pitching.

• PIT vs. LHPs this season: 29th in batting average (.218), 30th in wRC+ (70)
• PIT vs. LHPs last 30 days: 28th in batting average (.197), 28th in wRC+ (68)

Pittsburgh did put up 16 runs yesterday, but only three of those came against a lefty — Carson Palmquist — and it was largely because he walked five batters in 2.1 IP.

Gomber, for all of his faults — and there are plenty — keeps the ball in the zone. His 5.6% walk rate ranks in the 89th percentile.

Key stat: Gomber has held this Pirates lineup to a .186 batting average over 51 combined plate appearances. He threw 6.0 shutout innings against them last season.

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Best MLB picks

Machado over 1.5 bases (-103): Machado extended his hitting streak to nine games with a single last night. In that span, he’s batting .500 with four doubles and two home runs.

That’s a pretty good place to start, and it gets even better when you look at his matchup.

The San Diego Padres take on Michael McGreevy (4.91 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals for the second time in a week, and Machado feasted in the first meeting, going 3-for-3 with two doubles.

The slugger is batting .319 against RHPs this year.

McGreevy has given up 23 hits in his last three starts (16.1 IP).

Robert to score (+133): Robert has been a wrecking ball since returning from the injured list on July 8, and I want in.

• .352 batting average
• .429 on-base percentage
• 14 runs in 16 games

The outfielder singled and scored last night and now has a run in four straight games.

Tonight, the Chicago White Sox take on Kyle Hendricks and the Los Angeles Angels, and Robert has had the righty’s number.

He’s 5-for-12 against Hendricks with a walk and two home runs.

Hendricks has been hit hard by righties all year (.298/.332/.538 slash line), and he posted a 5.03 ERA in July.

MLB prop picks made at 8:54 a.m. ET on 08/02/2025.

The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners continue a huge four-game series on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Seattle won the series opener, 6-0, moving one game ahead of Texas for the AL’s final wild-card spot. The Mariners now call upon their ace, Logan Gilbert, who is starting opposite Rangers sophomore Jack Leiter.

Check out my Rangers vs. Mariners predictions, featuring both pitchers and Eugenio Suarez.

Rangers vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Gilbert over 5.5 Ks | Leiter over 4.5 Ks | Suarez over 0.5 hits (+265)

Gilbert over 5.5 Ks (-375): Gilbert is one of the game’s best swing-and-miss arms, making this teased-down total attainable against any team.

• 13.1 K/9 (would lead MLB if he were qualified)
• 36.0% K rate (97th percentile)
• 6+ Ks in 12 of 14 starts

The hard-throwing righty has faced Texas twice this year and racked up seven punchouts in each outing.

The only reason I’m teasing this line down a tad is because the Rangers have been formidable against right-handed pitchers in the last 30 days, sporting a 115 wRC+ (fifth-best) and 21.0% K rate (12th-lowest).

Gilbert had a 3.04 ERA in July, though, so I don’t expect him to get rocked.

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MLB SGP legs

Leiter over 4.5 Ks (-139): On the other end, we have Leiter, who is beginning to look like a player worthy of being drafted second overall in 2021.

The righty has a 3.00 ERA across his last five starts with 32 strikeouts in 27.0 IP.

He is 5-0 against this line in that span and is coming off consecutive quality starts (6.0 IP, three or fewer earned runs) where he logged seven Ks.

Seattle has the second-highest K rate against RHP over the last 30 days (25.2%), and Leiter struck out seven Mariners in 6.0 IP back on June 29.

Suarez over 0.5 hits (-167): Leiter has still given up a fair bit of contact during his hot stretch, and I think the newly-acquired Suarez can take advantage.

The left-hitting Suarez is a power bat with the fifth-most home runs (36) in MLB entering play on Aug. 1. But he’s hit for average against righties (.271), especially in the last 30 days (.333).

Suarez recorded a hit in his re-introduction to the Mariners faithful last night and now has a knock in four of his past five games.

Rangers vs. Mariners predictions made at 2:15 p.m. ET on 08/01/2025.

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The red-hot Manny Machado headlines Friday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Machado closed out July on a monster eight-game hit streak, and has solid value to go deep off lefty Matthew Liberatore at Petco Park tonight. Elsewhere, I’m targeting Luis Robert Jr. against another struggling southpaw.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 1.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Machado to hit a home run (+350)

Machado is tearing the cover off the ball during his hitting streak.

• .529 batting average
• .824 slugging percentage
• 2 HRs, 11 RBIs

The third baseman also has zero walks and a 69% hard-hit rate (balls batted above 95 mph) in that span. For context, Kyle Schwarber leads MLB with a season-long 60% hard-hit rate.

Machado does most of his damage against lefties, too.

• He’s slugging .545 against LHP and .495 against RHP.

• Half of Machado’s 20 home runs have come agianst southpaws. He’s had 178 fewer at-bats against LHP than RHP.

Liberatore should be a perfect matchup for him to continue that trend. He’s a contact pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact. For us, that’s a great combination.

Only 24.1% of his opponents’ at-bats end in a strikeout or walk, and he ranks in the bottom third percentile for hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

Key stat: Machado is 2-for-3 against Liberatore with a home run.

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Best HR predictions

Robert to hit a home run (+480): Robert batted below the Mendoza line in April, May and June but caught fire in July.

• .353 batting average
• .549 slugging percentage
• 3 HRs

His 17% K rate in that span is well below his 28.5% season-long average, and gives me confidence he will make some solid contact against Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson.

Anderson (4.41 ERA) has given up nine home runs in his last eight games and only generates a ground ball on 30.8% of balls in play (sixth pecentile among MLB pitchers).

Robert is slugging .568 against lefties this year.

MLB home run picks made at 11:56 a.m. ET on 08/01/2025.

The Toronto Blue Jays begin August with a three-game homestand against the Kansas City Royals.

The pregame narrative: Both teams were active during Thursday’s trade deadline, bolstering already strong rosters for a postseason push. Toronto added a pair of high-leverage relievers and is favoured to win the series opener behind Kevin Gausman, who pitches opposite Michael Wacha.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Royals for Aug. 1, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Addison Barger.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Royals

Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+108)

Last year, Guerrero went from a good to a great bat following the all-star break. And the early results indicate we’re in for a repeat this season.

• Pre ASG: .277/.384/.434 splits, 12 HR in 94 games
• Post ASG: .407/.500/.667 spits, 3 HR in 14 games

It’s not a massive sample, but I want to ride the hot hand in what should be a getable matchup.

Wacha has stark home/away splits (2.63 ERA at home, 4.53 on the road), and ranks in the bottom-third percentiles for K rate (18.4%) and whiff rate (23.0%).

He also doesn’t walk many batters, which tells me Guerrero should be able to put bat on ball.

Guerrero is just 2-for-13 against Wacha with a pair of doubles. But he has a much better .446 xBA in those at-bats with a monster .900 xSLG.

The righty has a six-pitch mix but mainly relies on a 4-seamer/changeup combo. Guerrero — who owns a 90th percentile hard-hit rate — has hit both of those offerings well.

Key stat: Guerrero is slugging .529 SLG vs. 4-seamers and .455 against changeups from RHP this year.

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Quick pick

Barger over 0.5 RBI (+143): Barger is hitting fifth behind Nathan Lukes, George Springer, Guerrero and Bo Bichette — that’s a great spot for run production.

I’ve already talked about Guerrero, so let’s look at the other three. Lukes has a .346 OBP against righties and Springer and Bichette are a combined 11-for-30 against Wacha.

Barger has never seen Wacha before, but he’s crushed righties and rakes at home.

• Vs. RHP: .277/.332/.537 slash line
• At home: .288/.346/.541 slash line

The third baseman has 10 RBI since the all-star break.

Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-112): I think Wacha is in trouble, but don’t feel the same way about Gausman.

Toronto’s righty is finding his form at the perfect time with a 1.96 ERA across his last six starts. He has given up just five hits and one run while striking out 18 in his last two starts (13.0 IP).

And those outings were against the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, who rank sixth and third in runs per game.

The Royals score the third-fewest runs per game (3.81), and Gausman has dominated them since joining the Blue Jays, with a 1.01 ERA in four starts.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:26 a.m. ET on 08/01/2025.

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees wrap up their four-game set with a matinee in the Bronx on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: New York won in extra innings last night and aims to take three of four from its AL East rival today. This matchup is a pick’em with Marcus Stroman pitching for the Yanks and Ryan Pepiot going for the Rays.

Check out my Rays vs. Yankees predictions, featuring Josh Lowe and Giancarlo Stanton.

Rays vs. Yankees predictions

Parlay: Rays F5 +0.5 | Lowe over 0.5 hits | Stanton over 0.5 hits (+290)

Rays F5 +0.5 (-165): Stroman is well past his prime, and he seldom gives the Yankees chances to win ballgames.

The righty has a 6.09 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP and some unsightly batted ball metrics:

• 5th-percentile xERA (5.55)
• 14th-percentile xBA (.280)
• 16th-percentile barrel rate (10.5%)
• 4th-percentile hard-hit rate (49.1%)

Stroman also has a fourth-percentile K rate (14.9%) and has gotten lit up by this Rays lineup in the past, ceding a .309 batting average in 60 plate appearances.

Pepiot, meanwhile, has been on a roll with a 3.60 ERA this month and four quality starts in five games.

He has held this Aaron Judge-less Yankees lineup to a .186 batting average in 63 plate appearances.

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Lowe over 0.5 hits (-250): Stroman’s biggest problems come against left-hitting batters.

• The 34-year-old is ceding an ugly .298/.366/.560 slash line against LHHs.

• Lowe is batting .251 against RHPs and .222 against LHPs this year.

• The Rays’ right fielder is 3-for-10 vs. Stroman with a .371 xBA in those at-bats.

Lowe is also on a nice little run, batting .320 in his last seven games. He has a knock in six of those matchups, including all three games in this series.

Stanton over 0.5 hits (-139): I would recommend playing this as a standalone.

Stanton has been on a roll coming out of the all-star break, batting .333/.389/.636 in nine games. He has a hit in eight of those contests, including all four at Yankee Stadium.

The slugger is running reverse splits against righties this year, with a .289 batting average (.208 vs. LHPs).

He hasn’t seen Pepiot yet, but I’m not too worried about that.

Stanton hasn’t walked even once in his last eight games, so I expect him to be up there swinging.

Rays vs. Yankees predictions made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 07/31/2025.

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