The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners continue a huge four-game series on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Seattle won the series opener, 6-0, moving one game ahead of Texas for the AL’s final wild-card spot. The Mariners now call upon their ace, Logan Gilbert, who is starting opposite Rangers sophomore Jack Leiter.
Check out my Rangers vs. Mariners predictions, featuring both pitchers and Eugenio Suarez.
Rangers vs. Mariners predictions
Parlay: Gilbert over 5.5 Ks | Leiter over 4.5 Ks | Suarez over 0.5 hits (+265)
Gilbert over 5.5 Ks (-375): Gilbert is one of the game’s best swing-and-miss arms, making this teased-down total attainable against any team.
- 13.1 K/9 (would lead MLB if he were qualified)
- 36.0% K rate (97th percentile)
- 6+ Ks in 12 of 14 starts
The hard-throwing righty has faced Texas twice this year and racked up seven punchouts in each outing.
The only reason I’m teasing this line down a tad is because the Rangers have been formidable against right-handed pitchers in the last 30 days, sporting a 115 wRC+ (fifth-best) and 21.0% K rate (12th-lowest).
Gilbert had a 3.04 ERA in July, though, so I don’t expect him to get rocked.
MLB SGP legs
Leiter over 4.5 Ks (-139): On the other end, we have Leiter, who is beginning to look like a player worthy of being drafted second overall in 2021.
The righty has a 3.00 ERA across his last five starts with 32 strikeouts in 27.0 IP.
He is 5-0 against this line in that span and is coming off consecutive quality starts (6.0 IP, three or fewer earned runs) where he logged seven Ks.
Seattle has the second-highest K rate against RHP over the last 30 days (25.2%), and Leiter struck out seven Mariners in 6.0 IP back on June 29.
Suarez over 0.5 hits (-167): Leiter has still given up a fair bit of contact during his hot stretch, and I think the newly-acquired Suarez can take advantage.
The left-hitting Suarez is a power bat with the fifth-most home runs (36) in MLB entering play on Aug. 1. But he’s hit for average against righties (.271), especially in the last 30 days (.333).
Suarez recorded a hit in his re-introduction to the Mariners faithful last night and now has a knock in four of his past five games.
Rangers vs. Mariners predictions made at 2:15 p.m. ET on 08/01/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.