The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees wrap up their four-game set with a matinee in the Bronx on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: New York won in extra innings last night and aims to take three of four from its AL East rival today. This matchup is a pick’em with Marcus Stroman pitching for the Yanks and Ryan Pepiot going for the Rays.
Check out my Rays vs. Yankees predictions, featuring Josh Lowe and Giancarlo Stanton.
Rays vs. Yankees predictions
Parlay: Rays F5 +0.5 | Lowe over 0.5 hits | Stanton over 0.5 hits (+290)
Rays F5 +0.5 (-165): Stroman is well past his prime, and he seldom gives the Yankees chances to win ballgames.
The righty has a 6.09 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP and some unsightly batted ball metrics:
- 5th-percentile xERA (5.55)
- 14th-percentile xBA (.280)
- 16th-percentile barrel rate (10.5%)
- 4th-percentile hard-hit rate (49.1%)
Stroman also has a fourth-percentile K rate (14.9%) and has gotten lit up by this Rays lineup in the past, ceding a .309 batting average in 60 plate appearances.
Pepiot, meanwhile, has been on a roll with a 3.60 ERA this month and four quality starts in five games.
He has held this Aaron Judge-less Yankees lineup to a .186 batting average in 63 plate appearances.
MLB SGP legs
Lowe over 0.5 hits (-250): Stroman’s biggest problems come against left-hitting batters.
- The 34-year-old is ceding an ugly .298/.366/.560 slash line against LHHs.
- Lowe is batting .251 against RHPs and .222 against LHPs this year.
- The Rays’ right fielder is 3-for-10 vs. Stroman with a .371 xBA in those at-bats.
Lowe is also on a nice little run, batting .320 in his last seven games. He has a knock in six of those matchups, including all three games in this series.
Stanton over 0.5 hits (-139): I would recommend playing this as a standalone.
Stanton has been on a roll coming out of the all-star break, batting .333/.389/.636 in nine games. He has a hit in eight of those contests, including all four at Yankee Stadium.
The slugger is running reverse splits against righties this year, with a .289 batting average (.208 vs. LHPs).
He hasn’t seen Pepiot yet, but I’m not too worried about that.
Stanton hasn’t walked even once in his last eight games, so I expect him to be up there swinging.
Rays vs. Yankees predictions made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 07/31/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.