Staff Writer

Rangers vs. Mariners SGP predictions July 31: Bet on Josh Naylor, Julio Rodriguez in +440 wager

The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners open up a four-game set at T-Mobile Park on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Both teams sport identical 57-52 records and are tied for the AL’s final wild-card spot entering play on July 31, so this is a big one. Kumar Rocker starts for Texas, and he’s been dreadful on the road, while George Kirby will throw for Seattle.

Check out my Rangers vs. Mariners predictions, featuring Josh Naylor and Julio Rodriguez.

Rangers vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Mariners F5 -0.5 | Naylor over 1.5 bases | Rodriguez over 0.5 hits (+440)

Mariners F5 -0.5 (-109): Rocker’s home/away splits are about as drastic as you’ll find, and I want to tap into that tonight.

Home: 2.43 ERA, .203 OBA, 5-0-1 on F5 ML
Away: 9.91 ERA, .354 OBA, 1-5-1 on F5 ML

The hard-throwing righty has a sixth-percentile xERA (5.52) and 10th percentile xBA (.285). He ceded four runs in 3.1 innings in his lone start in Seattle this year.

Kirby (4.50 ERA) hasn’t been at his best this season, but he’s finding his form at the right time.

He owns a 3.06 ERA in his last six starts — with four quality starts — and a 2.69 FIP. That’s more in line with Kirby’s numbers over the last three years.

Seattle should capitalize on this pitching mismatch at home.

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MLB SGP legs

Naylor over 1.5 bases (+145): Naylor profiles as the type of player who can get after Rocker.

Naylor vs. LHP: .299/.371/.473
Rocker vs. LHB: .320/.379/.496

Rocker leans heavily on fastballs, throwing either a sinker, cutter or four-seamer 71% of the time.

Naylor is batting .311 and slugging .475 against those offerings from righties in a 409-pitch sample this year. His .312 xBA and .508 xSLG against those pitches are encouraging, too.

This will be the Canadian’s first game as a member of the Mariners at T-Mobile Park, and I’m expecting fireworks.

Rodriguez over 0.5 hits (-240): Finally, I’m looking for J-Rod to record a hit. That shouldn’t be a lot to ask considering the run he’s been on over his past 15 games:

.323 batting average
.710 slugging percentage
1+ hits in 11 of 15

Rodriguez has five multi-hit games in his last eight outings. He’s also batting .295 against fastballs from righties this year.

Rangers vs. Mariners predictions made at 9 a.m. ET on 07/31/2025.

Rangers vs. Angels SGP predictions July 29: Bet on Mike Trout and Corey Seager in +340 SGP

The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels provide baseball fans with a late-night AL West showdown.

The pregame narrative: Texas had won six straight games before yesterday’s loss, and looks to rebound against L.A. southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. I’m targeting three players in this +340 SGP, including Kikuchi and his teammate Mike Trout.

Check out my Rangers vs. Angels predictions, also featuring Corey Seager.

Rangers vs. Angels predictions

Parlay: Kikuchi over 5.5 Ks | Seager over 1.5 bases | Trout over 0.5 hits (+340)

Kikuchi over 5.5 Ks (-175): Kikuchi is prone to giving up hard contact, but he’s also a consistent strikeout arm.

The lefty has a respectable 24.1% K rate (63rd percentile) and has logged five-plus Ks in eight of his last 10 starts. In that span, Kikuchi is 5-5 against this line.

He has every opportunity to over-index tonight against a Rangers team with the sixth-highest K rate vs. LHP (25.3%).

In the last 30 days, Texas has the second-highest K rate (27.9%) and the seventh-lowest wRC+ (78) against lefties.

Kikuchi is 2-1 against this line in his last three starts against the Rangers, averaging exactly 6.0 Ks.

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MLB SGP legs

Seager over 1.5 bases (-110): I said earlier that Kikuchi can get hit hard, and want to tap into that by backing Seager.

Kikuchi ranks in the 33rd percentile or lower in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. His 91.4 mph average exit velocity ranks in the sixth percentile.

Seager is slashing .333/.455/.630 this month with nine doubles and five HRs.

He bats from the left side, but his SLG vs. LHP (.515) is higher than his SLG vs. RHP (.470).

Seager is 4-for-15 off Kikuchi with a home run. That might not seem impressive, but his .344 xBA and .665 xSLG in those at-bats indicate there is a lot more production on the table.

Trout over 0.5 hits (-245): I’ve been trying to fade Rangers starter Patrick Corbin for a while, and it’s seldom worked out.

The veteran is having his best season in years, posting a 3.78 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP.

But Corbin’s .271 xBA tells me he’s gotten a bit lucky, and his 75th percentile walk rate indicates Trout should be putting the ball in play.

Trout isn’t having a great year by any means, but I think he can take advantage of this righty-lefty matchup.

The slugger has a hit in 10 of his last 14 games.

Rangers vs. Angels predictions made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 07/29/2025.

MLB home run picks July 29: Back Josh Naylor, Teoscar Hernandez on Tuesday

Josh Naylor headlines Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: The Canadian hit his first home run as a Seattle Mariner last night and has great value to go deep again in the homer-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park. Elsewhere, I’m targeting Teoscar Hernandez in a plus matchup.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 29.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Naylor to hit a home run (+450)

Seattle needed a lefty bat that could mash, and Naylor fit the bill.

The Canadian has flirted with the 30 home run milestone in each of the last four seasons, hitting a career high 31 bombs in 2023.

Naylor slashed .292/.360/.447 in 93 games with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and is off to a hot start with the Mariners, going 5-for-15 (.333) with a home run.

Tonight, the Mariners take on Luis Severino and the Athletics.

Severino has a 6.68 ERA and 1.1 HR/9 at home.

The righty also has a 13th percentile K rate and 11th percentile hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ temporary home venue, is the eighth-most homer-friendly park in MLB this year.

Key stat: Naylor does serious damage against righty arms, slugging .481 with nine of his 12 home runs.

Best HR predictions

Hernandez to hit a home run (+295): This is the perfect storm for Hernandez to launch one.

The ball flies at Great American Ball Park for right-hitting batters, with 21% more home runs than the league average of the last three seasons.

Hernandez has been on a tear over his last five games, going 7-for-19 (.360 batting average) with two home runs.

Now, he gets to go up against Nick Lodolo, who has a stellar 3.08 ERA, but is homer-prone. The lefty has given up nine home runs in his last nine starts.

Hernandez is slugging .672 against LHP this year with six home runs in 67 at-bats.

MLB home run picks made at 11:28 a.m. ET on 07/29/2025.

MLB home run picks July 29: Back Josh Naylor, Teoscar Hernandez on Tuesday

Josh Naylor headlines Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: The Canadian hit his first home run as a Seattle Mariner last night and has great value to go deep again in the homer-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park. Elsewhere, I’m targeting Teoscar Hernandez in a plus matchup.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 29.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Naylor to hit a home run (+450)

Seattle needed a lefty bat that could mash, and Naylor fit the bill.

The Canadian has flirted with the 30 home run milestone in each of the last four seasons, hitting a career high 31 bombs in 2023.

Naylor slashed .292/.360/.447 in 93 games with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and is off to a hot start with the Mariners, going 5-for-15 (.333) with a home run.

Tonight, the Mariners take on Luis Severino and the Athletics.

Severino has a 6.68 ERA and 1.1 HR/9 at home.

The righty also has a 13th percentile K rate and 11th percentile hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ temporary home venue, is the eighth-most homer-friendly park in MLB this year.

Key stat: Naylor does serious damage against righty arms, slugging .481 with nine of his 12 home runs.

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Best HR predictions

Hernandez to hit a home run (+310): This is the perfect storm for Hernandez to launch one.

The ball flies at Great American Ball Park for right-hitting batters, with 21% more home runs than the league average of the last three seasons.

Hernandez has been on a tear over his last five games, going 7-for-19 (.360 batting average) with two home runs.

Now, he gets to go up against Nick Lodolo, who has a stellar 3.08 ERA, but is homer-prone. The lefty has given up nine home runs in his last nine starts.

Hernandez is slugging .672 against LHP this year with six home runs in 67 at-bats.

MLB home run picks made at 11:28 a.m. ET on 07/29/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles best bets July 29: Back Bichette, Rutschman in Game 1 of Tuesday’s doubleheader

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles meet for a doubleheader on Tuesday at Camden Yards.

The pregame narrative: The AL-best Blue Jays dropped the series opener last night, and turn to Easton Lucas in the first of two games today. Baltimore counters with Charlie Morton, who has gotten hit hard this season and coming out of the all-star break.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for July 29, featuring props on Bo Bichette and Adley Rutschman.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles

Best bet: Bichette over 1.5 bases (-110)

We’ve got a red-hot hitter in Bichette and an ice-cold pitcher in Morton … what’s not to like?

Bichette has been raking since being moved to the cleanup spot last month, posting a .384/.423/.616 slash line in 78 plate appearances.

For reference, he was hitting .270/.310/.417 as the leadoff man this year in a 378 PA sample.

The shortstop has cleared this line in four straight games and is an absurd 9-for-10 in his last two games. He should stay scorching against Morton.

Baltimore’s 41-year-old righty is well past his prime and owns a 5.48 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.

Morton’s 21st percentile walk rate isn’t ideal for a total bases prop, but Bichette only walks in 5.1% of his at-bats (11th percentile).

Bichette’s eighth-percentile chase rate means he’s constantly looking to hit.

Morton throws a curveball 39% of the time and a 4-seamer 30% of the time. Against right-handed pitching, Bichette is batting .357 against curveballs and .309 against 4-seamers.

Key stat: Bichette is 8-1 against this line in his last nine games.

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Quick pick

Rutschman over 0.5 RBI (+143): Rutschman was raking in June before getting injured, posting a .309/.381/.509 slash line with five RBI in 15 games.

The all-star catcher returned from a month-long absence on Monday and didn’t miss a beat. He went 3-for-5 with two doubles and two RBI in Baltimore’s 11-4 win.

Rutschman is slated to hit fifth for the Orioles in Game 1, which should be a great spot for run production against Lucas.

Lucas has a career 7.65 ERA and a 5.82 ERA across five appearances with Toronto this year.

The lefty hasn’t fared well with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons this year, either, posting a 5.35 ERA in 33.2 IP.

Rutschman is batting .288 against lefties this year, and slashed .329/.390/.512 against southpaws in 2024.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:33 a.m. ET on 07/29/2025.

Wyndham Championship predictions, picks and odds: Back Matsuyama, Bezuidenhout in last event before FedEx Cup playoffs

The Wyndham Championship is here, and with it comes the final chance for players to rack up points and advance to the FedEx Cup playoffs.

The latest: Only 70 players will advance past the regular season, and several players — like Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Austin Eckroat — find themselves on the bubble. I’m backing both of them this week, but my best bet is on superstar Hideki Matsuyama.

Check out my Wyndham Championship predictions for the 2025 tournament beginning on July 31.

Wyndham Championship predictions

Best bet: Matsuyama to win (+2,500)

When Matsuyama is at his best, he’s an elite iron player who hits a ton of fairways.

That’s what players need to succeed at Sedgefield Country Club, which heavily skews to accuracy over power off-the-tee.

The problem is that he hasn’t been at his best with the driver.

Matsuyama has lost strokes off-the-tee in three of his last four starts, and he was below average in driving accuracy in two of them. The good news is he gained strokes OTT in his last start (at the Open Championship) and is dialled in with his irons.

Matsuyama ranks sixth in strokes gained: approach in this field over the last three months, according to DataGolf.

He also ranks 28th in strokes gained: putting in the same time span.

Since April 28, he’s made seven of eight cuts with three top-20 finishes, including a T13 and a T16 in his last two starts.

If Matsuyama was driving the ball well, those top 20s could very well be wins.

I want to be early on the Japanese star. This is a week where he can put it all together against a field without Rory McIlroy or Scottie Scheffler.

Key stat: Matsuyama finished T3 at the Wyndham Championship in 2016 and T11 in 2018.

Go to full Wyndham Championship betting markets

Golf picks

Bezuidenhout to win (+7,500): These odds seem very generous considering how well Bezuidenhout is playing.

Check out how the South African ranks in this field (152 total players) over the last three months:

9th in driving accuracy
25th in strokes gained: approach
29th in strokes gained: around-the-greens
34th in strokes gained: putting

Now that’s a well-rounded player.

Bezuidenhout’s SG: OTT numbers aren’t great, but that’s only because he doesn’t hit it far, which doesn’t matter here.

He’s made the cut in all four starts at this event and finished a career-best T22 here last year. A 36th-place finish or better gets him into the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Eckroat to win (+9,000): Eckroat — a two-time winner in 2024 — finished sixth here last year and is beginning to trend in the right direction after a brutal start to the season.

He has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts and ranks 26th in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour this year.

Eckroat’s short game has been very poor in recent months, but I’m hoping he can hit enough greens to overcome that.

The 26-year-old needs a T2 or better to advance to the playoffs. I’ll take a flier on him to win at huge odds.

Wyndham Championship predictions made at 4:00 p.m. on 07/28/2025.

Wyndham Championship predictions, picks and odds: Back Matsuyama, Bezuidenhout in last event before FedEx Cup playoffs

The Wyndham Championship is here, and with it comes the final chance for players to rack up points and advance to the FedEx Cup playoffs.

The latest: Only 70 players will advance past the regular season, and several players — like Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Austin Eckroat — find themselves on the bubble. I’m backing both of them this week, but my best bet is on superstar Hideki Matsuyama.

Check out my Wyndham Championship predictions for the 2025 tournament beginning on July 31.

Wyndham Championship predictions

Best bet: Matsuyama to win (+2,500) & top-20 finish (+175)

When Matsuyama is at his best, he’s an elite iron player who hits a ton of fairways.

That’s what players need to succeed at Sedgefield Country Club, which heavily skews to accuracy over power off-the-tee.

The problem is that he hasn’t been at his best with the driver.

Matsuyama has lost strokes off-the-tee in three of his last four starts, and he was below average in driving accuracy in two of them. The good news is he gained strokes OTT in his last start (at the Open Championship) and is dialled in with his irons.

Matsuyama ranks sixth in strokes gained: approach in this field over the last three months, according to DataGolf.

He also ranks 28th in strokes gained: putting in the same time span.

Since April 28, he’s made seven of eight cuts with three top-20 finishes, including a T13 and a T16 in his last two starts.

If Matsuyama was driving the ball well, those top 20s could very well be wins.

I want to be early on the Japanese star. This is a week where he can put it all together against a field without Rory McIlroy or Scottie Scheffler.

Key stat: Matsuyama finished T3 at the Wyndham Championship in 2016 and T11 in 2018.

Go to full Wyndham Championship betting markets

Golf picks

Bezuidenhout to win (+5,500) & top-30 finish (+140): These odds seem very generous considering how well Bezuidenhout is playing.

Check out how the South African ranks in this field (152 total players) over the last three months:

9th in driving accuracy
25th in strokes gained: approach
29th in strokes gained: around-the-greens
34th in strokes gained: putting

Now that’s a well-rounded player.

Bezuidenhout’s SG: OTT numbers aren’t great, but that’s only because he doesn’t hit it far, which doesn’t matter here.

He’s made the cut in all four starts at this event and finished a career-best T22 here last year. A 36th-place finish or better gets him into the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Eckroat to win (+8,000) & top-30 finish (+200): Eckroat — a two-time winner in 2024 — finished sixth here last year and is beginning to trend in the right direction after a brutal start to the season.

He has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts and ranks 26th in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour this year.

Eckroat’s short game has been very poor in recent months, but I’m hoping he can hit enough greens to overcome that.

The 26-year-old needs a T2 or better to advance to the playoffs. I’ll take a flier on him to win at huge odds.

Wyndham Championship predictions made at 4:00 p.m. on 07/28/2025.

National Bank Open parlay picks July 29: Back Canadian Victoria Mboko in +280 wager

The National Bank Open has another full slate of matches on Tuesday, with Canadian Victoria Mboko looking to stay hot.

The pregame narrative: Mboko won her NBO main-draw debut on Sunday and now has a step up in competition against the No. 29-seeded Sofia Kenin. Elsewhere, look for top-seeded Alexander Zverev to make quick work of Adam Walton.

Check out my top National Bank Open parlay picks for July 29.

National Bank Open parlay picks

Parlay: Mboko to win | Zverev/Walton under 21.5 games | Musetti/Duckworth over 19.5 games (+280)

Mboko to win (-167): Mboko’s sure to be a Canadian household name in no time with the way she’s playing.

The 18-year-old won 22 straight matches without dropping a set to win four ITF titles earlier this year, and she advanced to the third round of the French Open in her Grand Slam debut.

Mboko is 13-2 on hard courts this year, and is 2-1 since returning to North America following Wimbledon. Both of her victories were in straight sets, with the loss coming to WTA No. 11-ranked Elena Rybakina — and even then, she forced the Kazakhstani deep in the second set.

Kenin is a solid player but is in tough form right now, losing four of her past six matches.

I expect the Canadian to capitalize on the hometown advantage and advance to the Round of 32.

Full National Bank Open betting markets

Tennis parlay picks

Zverev/Walton under 21.5 games (-182): Zverev is the co-favourite to win this tournament alongside Taylor Fritz and should have no issue crushing Walton in the Round of 64.

The No. 1-seeded player has underperformed this year from a trophies standpoint, but he still has a 35-14 record (with an 11-4 record on hard courts).

Zverev is -1,000 to win this match and -265 to win in straight sets. Taking the under on 21.5 games means we’re essentially backing the German to win 6-4, 6-4 or better.

Walton is 0-5 against top-20 ranked players this year, losing four of those matches in straight sets.

Musetti/Duckworth over 19.5 games (-182): Finally, let’s look at a matchup between Lorenzo Musetti and James Duckworth.

Musetti is a -560 favourite to win, but I think this one has upset potential.

The Italian has lost three straight matches heading into this event and owns a very mediocre 55.83% win rate on hard courts (6-5 this year).

Duckworth, meanwhile, has played 311 of his 527 career matches on hard courts and owns a 61.22% win rate on the surface (13-9 this year).

All five of his matches against top-20 ranked players in the last 52 weeks have gone over this total.

National Bank Open parlay picks made at 12:00 p.m. on 07/28/2025

Eugenie Bouchard vs. Emiliana Arango National Bank Open odds and best bet: Canadian is an underdog with retirement looming

Eugenie Bouchard takes the stage at the National Bank Open with retirement on the horizon.

The pre-match narrative: Bouchard has only played five times in the last two years and will wrap up her career at this event in her hometown of Montreal. The 31-year-old Canadian is a sizeable underdog against Colombian Emiliana Arango in the opening round.

Check out our Bouchard vs. Arango odds and my best bet for the July 28 tennis match.

Bouchard vs. Arango odds

Full National Bank Open betting markets

Markets	Betting odds
Bouchard to win	+240
Arango to win	-350
Bouchard +5 games	-120
Arango -5 games	-112
Bouchard +1.5 sets	-112
Arango -1.5 sets	-143
Over 19.5 games	-125
Under 19.5 games	-106

Bouchard vs. Arango odds as of 1:45 p.m. on 07/28/2025.

Best women’s tennis pick

Best bet: Arango -1.5 sets (-121)

There was a point when Bouchard was the best thing going in Canadian tennis, reaching the Wimbledon final in 2014 and the semis in the French Open and Australian Open in the same year.

But that was a long time ago.

A shoulder injury in 2021 put Bouchard out of commission for 17 months, and she hasn’t quite been the same since.

2022 record: 6-9
2023 record: 11-12
2024 record: 2-2

Bouchard has been out of the game for a while, turning to professional pickleball instead. She lost her only tennis match in 2025 in straight sets to Anna Sinclair Rogers earlier this month.

Arango isn’t a great player by any means. But at least she’s been active.

The Colombian has a middling 19-16 record this year, but that includes a stellar 13-4 record on hard courts. She made a finals appearance at the Merida Open in March.

Arango had a tough transition to clay and lost four straight matches on grass, but a return to hard against an opponent with little to no professional reps in the last two years should get her back in the win column.

Key stat: Bouchard’s 53.04% win rate on hard courts is her worst of any outdoor surface.

National Bank Open parlay picks July 29: Back Canadian Victoria Mboko in +292 wager

The National Bank Open has another full slate of matches on Tuesday, with Canadian Victoria Mboko looking to stay hot.

The pregame narrative: Mboko won her NBO main-draw debut on Sunday and now has a step up in competition against the No. 29-seeded Sofia Kenin. Elsewhere, look for top-seeded Alexander Zverev to make quick work of Adam Walton.

Check out my top National Bank Open parlay picks for July 29.

National Bank Open parlay picks

Parlay: Mboko to win | Zverev/Walton under 21.5 games | Musetti/Duckworth over 19.5 games (+292)

Mboko to win (-167): Mboko’s sure to be a Canadian household name in no time with the way she’s playing.

The 18-year-old won 22 straight matches without dropping a set to win four ITF titles earlier this year, and she advanced to the third round of the French Open in her Grand Slam debut.

Mboko is 13-2 on hard courts this year, and is 2-1 since returning to North America following Wimbledon. Both of her victories were in straight sets, with the loss coming to WTA No. 11-ranked Elena Rybakina — and even then, she forced the Kazakhstani deep in the second set.

Kenin is a solid player but is in tough form right now, losing four of her past six matches.

I expect the Canadian to capitalize on the hometown advantage and advance to the Round of 32.

Full National Bank Open betting markets

Tennis parlay picks

Zverev/Walton under 21.5 games (-177): Zverev is the co-favourite to win this tournament alongside Taylor Fritz and should have no issue crushing Walton in the Round of 64.

The No. 1-seeded player has underperformed this year from a trophies standpoint, but he still has a 35-14 record (with an 11-4 record on hard courts).

Zverev is -1,000 to win this match and -265 to win in straight sets. Taking the under on 21.5 games means we’re essentially backing the German to win 6-4, 6-4 or better.

Walton is 0-5 against top-20 ranked players this year, losing four of those matches in straight sets.

Musetti/Duckworth over 19.5 games (-180): Finally, let’s look at a matchup between Lorenzo Musetti and James Duckworth.

Musetti is a -560 favourite to win, but I think this one has upset potential.

The Italian has lost three straight matches heading into this event and owns a very mediocre 55.83% win rate on hard courts (6-5 this year).

Duckworth, meanwhile, has played 311 of his 527 career matches on hard courts and owns a 61.22% win rate on the surface (13-9 this year).

All five of his matches against top-20 ranked players in the last 52 weeks have gone over this total.

National Bank Open parlay picks made at 12:00 p.m. on 07/28/2025