Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.
Who’s going to win the Super Bowl? I’ll provide a best bet, a dark horse and a team to avoid for the 2024-25 season.
The latest: The Kansas City Chiefs are favoured to win for the third time in a row but I’m looking elsewhere for value. I have my eyes on another AFC powerhouse, plus two teams from the NFC.
Check out my best Super Bowl bets to make before the NFL season starts.
It’s hard to believe you can get Baltimore at nearly double the odds of Kansas City (+550) to win the Super Bowl.
Sure, the Chiefs toppled the Ravens in last year’s AFC Championship game and are gunning for a three-peat — that can’t be overlooked. But Baltimore was the class of the NFL during the regular season and gained home-field advantage behind an MVP campaign from Lamar Jackson.
Jackson and Co. ranked fourth in points per game and sixth in EPA per play (+0.069), per RBSDM, thanks to a rushing attack that was among the best in football.
And the team was successful on the ground despite an injury-plagued RB room and no true bell-cow back.
Now the Ravens have future Hall-of-Famer Derrick Henry flanking Jackson, who should be as productive as ever. That’s to go along with some legitimate passing threats in Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, the latter of which missed most of last season with an injury.
If the playcalling lives up to the talent, Baltimore’s offence should be even better in 2024.
And the defence is simply elite.
Roquan Smith, Justin Madubuike and Kyle Hamilton were three of the team’s six All-Pros last season.
They anchor a unit which allowed the fewest points per game (16.5), had the most sacks (60.0), and ranked second in defensive EPA per play (-0.127).
Top value play
Falcons (+2,500)
A new coach and a new quarterback… what could go wrong?
That’s the pessimist’s line of thinking. We should ask what could go right, and I would answer: A lot.
The Atlanta Falcons spent years drafting great offensive players like Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson and now they have a quarterback to tie it all together.
Kirk Cousins is under centre and is poised to have a strong year following an Achilles injury.
Atlanta’s offensive line was great last year and all five starters are back for 2024. The No. 6-ranked unit by PFF can run block with the best of them. But more importantly, they’ll give Cousins a clean pocket and time to get the ball out.
Raheem Morris is in as head coach after a strong year as the Los Angeles Rams’ defensive coordinator.
He has a lot of talent to work with on that side of the ball. The Falcons had one of the best secondaries in football last year and used three of their four draft picks on defensive linemen.
Super Bowl bets: The dark horse
Buccaneers (+6,600)
I have zero faith in the Carolina Panthers or New Orleans Saints winning the NFC South.
Getting a home playoff game is key so you could consider this bet a hedge against the Falcons. But I do love the value here as a standalone pick.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit their stride at the right time last year, winning five of the final six games to claim the division. They picked up two-score wins over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field and the Jacksonville Jaguars coming down the stretch.
In the playoffs, Tampa hammered the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round before losing by one score to the Detroit Lions on the road.
I don’t think Baker Mayfield’s fantastic season was a one-off.
He’s got a strong offensive line, an experienced receiving corps and a breakout RB in Rachaad White.
Tampa has all-pro talents in Vita Vea, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. anchoring a sneaky-good defence. The Bucs won’t be an easy out for anyone.
Team to avoid: Buffalo Bills
Sorry Bills Mafia, it’s just not happening this year.
Buffalo holds the seventh-shortest odds to win it all at +1,200 but seems outmatched by most of the AFC’s other contenders.
There’s no disputing Josh Allen’s greatness. But he’ll be working with an inexperienced receiving corps following the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis.
I’m not going to dog on Keon Coleman before he plays an NFL snap or undervalue Khalil Shakir, who was solid in 2023. The Bills should still put up points but I can’t see them keeping up with the likes of Baltimore, Cincinnati, Kansas City or Houston.
And they will have to keep up because I don’t trust their defence.
Buffalo’s d-line lacks a true game wrecker, as Von Miller is well past his golden years and last year’s team sack leader, Leonard Floyd, is now on the San Francisco 49ers. Also, stalwart linebacker Matt Milano is already on the injured list with a bicep tear.
Sean McDermott is a defensive coach and his defence has folded under the pressure in four straight postseasons. Don’t be surprised when it happens again.
Two underdogs and a favourite make up these EPL Matchday 2 picks.
The pregame narrative: Manchester City is slated to host recently-promoted Ipswich Town in what I expect to be a drumming. Elsewhere, Newcastle is worth fading on the road while Aston Villa is a good bet to pick up points against Arsenal at home.
This seems like one of those games City could win four or five to nil.
Pep Guardiola’s side is coming off a gritty 2-0 victory at Stamford Bridge and now gets to play at home against a team it severely outclasses. The Sky Blues are -1,115 favourites to win and Erling Haaland is -195 to score.
On top of that, City is -275 to lead at half and win and -225 to score over 2.5 goals.
None of those options give bettors value so I’m turning to this first-half bet instead. City can come out of the gates flying and I like their chances of potting two goals before the whistle.
The team went 14-5-0 at the Etihad last season while averaging a league-best 2.68 home goals per game.
Ipswich Town fans must be elated it’s back in the Premier League after a 22-year absence but the team has had a brutal schedule to start its season.
Last week, the Blues hosted Liverpool and lost 2-0. Now they have to go play the four-time reigning champs. This could get ugly.
Key stat: Last season, Manchester City outscored the three recently promoted teams (Sheffield United, Burnley, and Luton Town) 10-2 at home.
Quick pick
Bournemouth or tie (-150): Newcastle has lofty expectations after a disappointing 2023-24 season.
The Magpies have spent boatloads across the last few transfer windows but haven’t gotten their money’s worth, finishing seventh last year.
They’re already off to a suspect start, picking up a 1-0 win over a weak Southampton side. Newcastle generated just 0.3 xG to its opponent’s 1.8, per FBRef.
Bournemouth was a very mediocre team last season, sitting 12th in the table with a 7-6-6 record at home.
But it did play Newcastle well, beating the Magpies 2-0 at home and drawing them 2-2 on the road.
Aston Villa to win or tie (+104): These are the types of games Arsenal needs to win if it wants to hoist the Premier League Trophy.
But Aston Villa is far from a pushover and I like the Lions’ chances of at least drawing at home.
Unai Emery played the spoiler to his old team last year by beating the Gunners in both of their EPL fixtures. Villa’s 2-0 victory at the Emirates was one of only two games Arsenal lost at home all season.
The Lions were also a great team at home, going 12-4-3 at Villa Park en route to a fourth-place finish.
I’m backing one elite arm and fading another in today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Paul Skenes is slumping but is poised to have a monster outing against the lowly Cincinnati Reds. Elsewhere, I think Yainer Diaz and the Houston Astros will give Corbin Burnes all he can handle.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 22.
For the first time in a long time, Skenes isn’t favoured to win the NL Rookie of the Year.
That honour now belongs to San Diego’s Jackson Merrill who is in the midst of a fantastic season. I think Merrill’s reign will be short-lived, though, after Skenes carves through the Reds tonight.
Pittsburgh’s ace might be slumping but Cincinnati is a dream matchup for most pitchers.
The Reds have the sixth-highest K rate (24.7%) and 10th-highest whiff rate (26.6%) in MLB. They’ve particularly struggled to hit righties lately, posting the fourth-highest K rate (26.9%) vs. RHP in the last 14 days.
Now let’s dig into Skenes’ “slump.”
He’s only cleared this line in one of his last four starts while posting a 3.47 ERA and a 9.35 K/9. Those are still some pretty darn good numbers.
Skenes went over this mark in eight of nine games prior and has the stuff to put up monster numbers on any given night.
Key stat: Skenes’ 31.8% K rate ranks in Baseball Savant’s 93rd percentile.
Quick picks
Burnes under 18.5 outs (-143): Speaking of season-long awards, Burnes was neck-and-neck with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race at one point.
But that ship has sailed after a tough run of form.
Burnes has a 9.00 ERA in August, falling under this line in all three starts. The righty had a much more respectable July but still went under this mark in three of five games while posting a 3.09 ERA.
And unlike Skenes, Burnes won’t have a cupcake opponent tonight.
The Baltimore Orioles take on the red-hot Houston Astros, who have won 11 of their past 14 games while averaging 4.78 runs per game.
Burnes has a 13.3% K rate and a .659 opponent SLG against the Astros in 45 combined plate appearances.
Diaz over 1.5 bases (+123): Diaz is one Astro that should feast against Burnes.
Paul Skenes is eyeing some hardware in his rookie season with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The latest: The 2023 No. 1 overall pick has fallen down the Cy Young board after a string of mediocre outings. Skenes has a 2.30 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through 16 starts, which would rank first and second in the NL if he had enough innings to qualify.
Here are the latest Skenes Cy Young odds as of August 22.
But his swing-and-miss ability makes him a natural contender to get right back in the race.
Skenes’ 11.3 K/9 mark is the sixth best in MLB while his 31.9% K rate ranks in Baseball Savant’s 93rd percentile.
The only real knock on Skenes’ case is that he hasn’t pitched enough. He’s logged 98.0 innings as of Aug. 22, while arms like Chris Sale (140.2) and Zack Wheeler (154.2) have slightly worse numbers over much larger samples.
Pittsburgh has also bowed out of the wild-card race, meaning Skenes’ workload could decrease.
It’s worth noting only one player has won the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in the same season (Fernando Valenzuela, 1981).
Other NL Cy Young odds
The favourite: Chris Sale (-500)
So is it worth backing Skenes at that number? With the way Sale has been pitching, maybe not.
The veteran southpaw has a 2.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 23 starts with an NL-best 12.0 K/9 rate.
It’s hard to imagine those numbers suddenly ballooning because Sale doesn’t give up much hard contact.
His 0.5 HR/9 rate is the third-best in MLB while his 29.3% hard-hit rate and 85.9 mph average exit velocity rank in the 98th and 95th percentile, respectively.
Two hitters and a pitcher make their way into today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Ryan Pepiot has been dealing for the Tampa Bay Rays and I expect him to go deep against the Oakland Athletics. Elsewhere, Trea Turner and Luis Garcia Jr. are worth backing at the plate in plus matchups.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 21.
Pepiot isn’t a household name but he’s quietly putting together a solid season.
The third-year righty owns a 3.69 ERA to pair with a stellar 1.08 WHIP across 18 starts. In June, he gave up just three combined earned runs to the Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees, and Cleveland Guardians before landing on the injured list with a knee infection.
Pepiot cleared this line twice while posting a 1.72 ERA in those starts.
Tampa Bay activated him from the IL last week and he picked up where he left off, throwing 5.1 innings of scoreless ball against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
He was one out short of clearing this total in that game but only threw 80 pitches. I expect him to have a longer leash tonight against a worse opponent.
The Athletics rank 25th in runs per game (4.01), 26th in team batting average (.231) and 27th in K rate (24.8%). Pepiot played Oakland earlier this season and gave up two runs in 5.2 IP.
Key stat: Pepiot has cleared this line in 10 of 18 starts.
Quick picks
Turner to score (-103): This is a great spot to back Turner, who is heating up after a post-all-star-game slump.
Philadelphia’s shortstop has cashed this bet in four of his last five games and is slashing .476/.500/.762 in that span. He went 0-for-4 last night but has a great opportunity to bounce back against Max Fried.
Atlanta’s lefty has a 7.90 ERA across three starts in August and has gotten rocked by Philadelphia’s lineup in the past.
The Phillies are batting .333 against Fried in a massive sample size (251 plate appearances). Turner is 17-for-43 against the southpaw with a .447 OBP.
Garcia Jr. over 1.5 bases (+128): Garcia has been absolutely on fire in August, batting .393 and raising his season-long average 18 points to .294.
He has three multi-hit games in his last four outings and gets to go up against Tanner Gordon, a rookie right-hander who’s gotten rocked through six starts.
Gordon owns a 7.00 ERA and has a propensity to give up hard contact.
Garcia’s OPS versus righties (.831) is more than 200 points higher than against lefties (.629). And his OPS at home (.968) is more than 300 points higher than on the road (.625).
MLB fans are treated to wall-to-wall action today.
The latest: Four matinee games, headlined by Justin Verlander returning for the Houston Astros, serve as the appetizer before the bulk of the slate begins. Later on, two elite arms battle when the Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies.
Check out the latest MLB odds for Wednesday, Aug. 21.
Verlander was placed on the injured list in early June with neck discomfort. The future Hall of Famer had a 3.95 ERA through 10 starts before that and looked good in his rehab assignment (7.0 IP, two runs, eight Ks). Houston has won 11 of its last 13 games.
The New York Yankees have lost three straight games and turn to Nestor Cortes, who has struggled lately. Cortes just threw 7.0 shutout innings against the lowly Chicago White Sox but had a 9.26 ERA in five starts before that. The Cleveland Guardians counter with rookie Joey Cantillo (6.23 ERA).
The Toronto Blue Jays offence erupted last night, hitting four home runs en route to a 10-3 victory over the Cincinnati Reds. Today’s rubber match is a pick ’em with Yariel Rodriguez (3.93 ERA) starting for Toronto opposite Nick Martinez (3.25 ERA).
Aaron Nola (3.45 ERA) and Max Fried (3.62 ERA) have seen their opposition plenty and one has done better than the other. Nola has held Atlanta to a .234 batting average with a 29.1% K rate in 289 combined plate appearances while Philadelphia is hitting .333 off Fried in 251 PAs, per Baseball Savant.
Elite competition, thousands of chanting fans, boisterous entrances, and celebrity cameos — this is what you can expect but do you know how to bet on the UFC?
-> New to UFC wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Betsto get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.
-> New to UFC wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Betsto get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.
Mixed martial arts (MMA) is one of the fastest-growing sports in the world, and the Ultimate Fighting Championship is its most popular promotion.
While the UFC is considered the pinnacle of MMA, there are other promotions — such as Bellator, and the Premier Fighting League — that also showcase top talent. You can, of course, bet on those, too.
How to bet on UFC
In this UFC betting guide, we are going to focus on the most common MMA betting markets, including outrights and method of victory. In addition, we will also provide examples of how to bet on UFC parlays and futures.
While the UFC isn’t an everyday sport, there are big events nearly every weekend. That gives bettors an opportunity to consistently get in on the action and wager on their favourite fighters.
-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets account to explore live odds and weekly UFC markets
-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets accountto explore live odds and weekly UFC markets
How to bet on UFC outrights (moneyline)
Outright betting is undoubtedly the most popular way to bet on the UFC and the concept is simple: In short, pick the winner of the fight and you will win if done correctly. This can also be referred to as the moneyline (ML).
There are many ways a fight can end, but the method of victory does not matter for an outright bet. A fight can therefore end in a knockout, the judges’ decision, or even disqualification. If your pick is declared the winner, you win the bet.
Each fighter will either be listed as a favourite, with a minus (-) sign before his or her odds, or an underdog, which is noted by a plus (+) sign. A good example to use is perhaps the most famous fight in UFC history — Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 223.
-> Want to see current UFC outright prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets
-> Want to see current UFC outright prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets
UFC outright odds
The odds for that McGregor vs. Nurmagomedov fight looked like this:
If you were to place $100 on McGregor to win outright it would have netted a profit of $130 if he won. You needed to place $160 to win $100 on Khabib, with the $60 being the sportsbook’s commission (juice) for taking the bet since he was the favourite.
Favourites in the UFC can vary anywhere from -110, which is basically a pick’em, to around -1,000.
At -160, that meant that there was a 61.5% implied probability of Khabib winning. A -1,000 favourite indicates a 90.9% implied probability of victory.
For a -1,000 favourite, you would have to wager $1,000 to return $100. Disparity like this is typically seen when a fighter severely outclasses their opponent.
While fighters are forced to compete within weight classes (there are eight different weight classes for men and four for women), there can still be physical advantages such as reach and height that can dictate how the odds are set.
Technical skills such as wrestling discipline, striking ability, and takedown defence are even more influential in setting the odds.
Upsets may be unlikely, but anything can happen in a combat sport. One huge upset was when Julianna Pena (+700 underdog) defeated nine-time defending champion Amanda Nunes (-1,400 favourite) via submission in the second round at UFC 269.
A $100 bet on Pena would have won $700.
Method of victory
Similar to outright betting, method of victory betting requires choosing the winner of the contest but also picking how the fight will end.
We’ll take a look at the different scenarios below.
Explore Method of Victory markets and live props at NorthStar Bets
-> Check out the latest fighter props and Method of Victory markets every day at NorthStar Bets – from submissions to knockouts and much more
-> Check out the latest fighter props and Method of Victory markets every day at NorthStar Bets – from submissions to knockouts and much more
KO/TKO/DQ or submission
This is known as finishing the fight “inside.” Each fight consists of three rounds (five if it’s the main event or a title fight). If a competitor is knocked out, the fight is over. The bout would also be over if a fighter is deemed unable to continue by a doctor or referee. That’s known as a technical knockout.
Additionally, if a fighter forces their opponent to tap out (submission), the fight is over. Finally, a fighter can be disqualified in rare circumstances.
Charles Oliveira has the most finishes (20) in UFC history. Photo by Chase Stevens/AP.
Decision or technical decision
If all rounds culminate without a stoppage the fight goes to a decision.
The winner of the fight will then be determined by three judges who are tabbed with keeping a round-by-round score using a 10-point scoring system. The judges will award 10 points to the winner of the round and up to nine points to the opponent. A tied round is scored 10-10.
The judges then compare cards and if all three agree, it becomes a unanimous decision. It’s considered a split decision if only two of the three judges agree. Either way, whoever has the most votes wins.
When choosing to bet on method of victory, it’s important to consider whether the competitor is known for having knockout power or if their game is based around endurance and wearing the competition out.
Let’s use the example of Sean Strickland and Israel Adesanya, who headlined UFC 293.
Strickland was +480 to win outright, while Adesanya sat at -650. Betting on Strickland to win by decision changed his odds to +1,100 while Adesanya to win by decision was set at +145.
Strickland won via decision and those who bet on him made significant profits.
Round betting
Round betting is another wrinkle similar to method of victory. You are predicting what round the fight will end in. It doesn’t matter how the fight ends, but only what round it finishes in.
You can place a wager on a fighter to win in a specific round or simply pick the round you believe the fight will end in regardless of the victor:
Round
Fighter X
Fighter Y
Either
1
+400
+550
+210
2
+700
+750
+350
3
+1400
+1100
+650
4
+2500
+1600
+1100
5
+3300
+2500
+1800
Round betting can be advantageous if there is a large disparity in talent between the competitors. Islam Makhachev fought Dan Hooker at UFC 267 and was a -600 favourite outright, while his odds to win inside sat at -230.
Try round-by-round UFC betting and live markets now on NorthStar Bets.
-> Ready to try UFC round-by-round betting?Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines
-> Ready to try UFC round-by-round betting? Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines
Makhachev, who has a history of finishing fights early, was +250 to win in the first round.
It would have been a good day to place that bet as Makhachev submitted Hooker in the first round. A $100 wager would have netted a $250 profit.
Round totals
Betting on UFC round totals is similar to round betting, but with a twist: it does not matter who wins. When betting on the UFC, or any MMA promotion, you have the option to pick the total rounds a fight will last.
This is similar to an over/under bet in other sports and will look like this:
1.5 total rounds: over (-200), under (+175) 2.5 total rounds: over (-110), under (-110) 3.5 total rounds: over (+150), under (-140) 4.5 total rounds: over (+220), under (-240)
The .5 indicates the round would have to go over the 2:30 mark in the following round (each round is five minutes long). The over 1.5 total round bet would cash once 2:30 is eclipsed in the second round.
These lines would change based on the competition. If the two fighters are both knockout specialists, the unders would have significantly lower odds.
Parlays are an incredibly popular way to bet on the UFC. A parlay is when you combine two or more separate bets into one ticket. Each bet inside a parlay is known as a leg.
Keep in mind that for a parlay to win, every leg on the ticket has to cash. If one selection loses, the entire parlay does.
It’s difficult to net a large return when selecting favourites in the UFC outrights betting market. Favourites often sit around -300, -350, and even -600, leading to small returns on single-event wagers. If you’re confident in those heavy favourites winning, however, a parlay could be your best option for a strong ROI.
You can also parlay round totals, finishes, and moneylines together — there are literally thousands of different possibilities.
An example of a parlay bet looks like this:
Pantoja to win by decision (+175) Barralho to win outright (-300) Jose Aldo vs. Johnathan Martinez over 2.5 rounds (-130)
That comes out to +643 odds. You would need all three outcomes of that bet to be correct and a $100 wager would produce a profit of $643.
Future betting in the UFC differs from other sports as there’s no market for predicting title contenders. Who will fight for a title could change on a weekly basis depending on who’s competing.
Odds will typically come out shortly after a UFC event is announced, however, meaning you can place a bet on a fight that is several months away.
This presents an opportunity to wager on odds before they shift in the weeks leading up to the fight. This is smart if you think a fighter’s opening line offers a lot of value.
For example, Makhachev could open as a -300 favourite, but enter the fight with -600 odds. Odds shift due to liabilities and are done to ensure sportsbooks can maintain a certain profit margin.
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-> Ready to put your UFC knowledge to use ? Sign up for NorthStar Bets to access live odds, props, parlays and exclusive Canadian Insights all season long
The penultimate event of the PGA Tour playoffs arrives with the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club.
The latest: The top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings tee it up outside of Denver and that field will be whittled down to 30 for the Tour Championship in East Lake next week. Scottie Scheffler is the favourite to win with Xander Schauffele right behind.
Check out our BMW Championship odds and best bets for the tournament beginning on Aug. 23.
Scheffler and Schauffele are the only two players with odds shorter than 12-to-1, which makes perfect sense.
The duo have combined for nine wins (three majors) and 12 additional top-five finishes this season. They rank first and second, respectively, in strokes gained total and tee-to-green, well ahead of third place Rory McIlroy.
Castle Pines has never hosted a PGA Tour event but it’s safe to say their games travel everywhere — even at 6,400 feet of elevation.
Last week’s winner, Hideki Matsuyama, is tied for fifth on the odds board with Viktor Hovland, who put together his best finish of the season (T2) after a string of poor results.
Three Canadians are playing this week with Corey Conners leading the way at +4,000.
BMW Championship best bets
Hovland to win (+1,800): Hovland won this event last year, albeit at a different course, en route to securing the Tour Championship.
The Norwegian was a bonafide top-three player in the world but tinkered with his swing in the offseason, lost it, and completely fell off the map.
Things have turned in the right direction, though, and I’ve seen enough to believe Hovland is back.
He reunited with swing coach Joe Mayo in May and has picked up strokes on approach in six of his last eight starts. Hovland was fourth out of 70 golfers in SG: APP and SG: T2G last week, per DataGolf, and he posted consecutive rounds of 66 on the weekend to finish one back of Matsuyama.
Clark to win (+3,300): Wyndham Clark’s career has been defined by peaks and valleys and it looks like the Denver native is climbing the mountain right now.
He has four top-15 finishes in his last five starts, including a T7 last week and a T10 at the Genesis Invitational in July.
The putter is heating up and the elite ball striking we’ve seen in the past is returning, too. But one interesting advantage here is Clark’s familiarity with the altitude.
He’s a two-time winner of the Colorado state golf championship and should have a leg up on the rest of the field there.
I’m turning to the mound for each of today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Seth Lugo is in a tough stretch but is primed to bounce back against a team he’s dominated before. Elsewhere, I’m backing Michael King and fading Tanner Houck.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 19.
Taking the over on an 18.5 outs prop is always risky, especially when the pitcher in question has given up 18 runs in his last four starts.
But there are a few reasons Lugo has my attention tonight.
He’s a contact pitcher with a 37th-percentile K rate and an 81st-percentile walk rate, per Baseball Savant. That keeps his pitch count low and lets him eat up innings. Case in point, Lugo logged 6.1 IP (clearing this total) while giving up six earned runs to the Chicago Cubs on July 27.
And I won’t put too much stock into his last two starts against the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins.
Those teams both rank in the top 10 for wRC+, batting average, and runs per game and are capable of giving any pitcher a hard time.
Tonight, Lugo gets to go up against the Los Angeles Angels, who are the exact opposite.
L.A. is in the bottom 10 of each aforementioned stat and Lugo torched them earlier this season. He gave up one earned run over 8.0 IP (i.e., 24 outs) while striking out 12.
Lugo has had a great season on the whole, posting a 3.04 ERA (eighth in MLB). Bet on him to bounce back tonight.
Key stat: Lugo is 12-13 against this line but he has thrown at least 6.0 IP (18.0 outs) in 20 of 25 games.
Quick picks
King over 17.5 outs (-159): Yes, this is a lot of juice for a single wager but I think it’s worth the squeeze.
King is living up to the billing as the main piece going back to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade. The righty had a tough start with his new club but has been on an absolute tear over his last seven starts.
In that span, he’s posted a 1.94 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 41.2 IP. He’s gone 5-2 against this line in those outings.
The Twins, as mentioned before, are a tough out. But King has made minced meat of the Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Guardians lately.
Houck under 4.5 strikeouts (-103): This seems like a smash fade spot against Houck, who has only cleared this line once in his last six games.
The righty will go up against the Houston Astros, who he dominated last week.
Houck gave up just four hits and one earned run over 6.0 IP. I’m sure the Red Sox loved that start but he only struck out one batter while going 13-of-25 on first pitch strikes.
Houston has the third-lowest K rate (19.1%) in MLB and has only struck out three times in 50 combined at-bats versus Houck (6.0% K rate)
I’ve got two best bets for the return of Premier League football.
The pregame narrative: Tottenham begins its season at King Power Stadium and I expect it to pick up three points against freshly-promoted Leicester City. Elsewhere, Liverpool has a soft landing spot for its first game without Jurgen Klopp.
Tottenham came out of the gates flying last season.
It was unbeaten in its first 10 Premier League fixtures (8-2-0) before picking up some injuries and suspensions and hitting the ditch, losing four of the next five.
But even when the Spurs were losing, they were filling the net.
Ange Postecoglou’s squad found the net in 27 straight games to start the season, averaging 2.18 goals per game in that span. Offence was never the problem for this group and shouldn’t be on Monday.
Tottenham’s deadly attack is comprised of former Golden Boot winner Son Heung-min, Dejan Kulusevski, and Dominic Solanke. The latter was the team’s marquee signing this transfer window and fills a void at the No. 9 spot following Harry Kane’s departure.
Leicester rolled to promotion out of the EFL Championship with a 31-4-11 record but there was a reason the Foxes were relegated in the first place.
They picked up just nine wins in 2022-23 while conceding nearly two goals per game.
Tottenham’s offence should tear Leicester to shreds and its defence is fully healthy. I like the visitors to take an early lead and not let go.
Key stat: Tottenham had the fifth-most non-penalty xG last year (66.7), per FBRef.
Quick pick
Liverpool over 2.5 goals (+107): The Klopp era at Liverpool ended with one Premier League title, one Champions League, an FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the Community Shield, a UEFA Super Cup and a Fifa Club World Cup.
Luckily for him, Liverpool has an easy first fixture against Ipswich Town, which enters the EPL on back-to-back promotions from the EFL League One and the EFL Championship.
The Blues rode an exceptionally strong defence to 96 points last season but they didn’t have to contend with a team like Liverpool.
Mo Salah, Darwin Núñez and Cody Gakpo led an offence which scored the third-most goals (86) last season. The Reds haven’t brought in any notable transfers yet, which could hurt them long-term. But we know how this group can play and I’ll back them to fill the net.
