Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.
The latest: The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies lead their respective divisions but not by enough to feel safe with a month to play. They’ll battle tonight while the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians dial up a doubleheader.
Check out the latest MLB odds for Monday, Aug. 26.
The Royals are three games back of the Guardians in the AL Central and can make up all that ground by sweeping this modified four-game set. Kansas City is 4-2 against Cleveland this season and will start Cole Ragans (3.31 ERA) opposite Nick Sandlin (3.88 ERA) in Game 1.
Philadelphia turns to its ace to kick off a huge series against Houston. Zack Wheeler (2.73 ERA) is second on the NL Cy Young odds board and looks to shut down an Astros lineup with the seventh-best wRC+ in August.
The Toronto Blue Jays head to Fenway Park in search of a fifth straight win. Toronto is leading MLB in home runs (25) and SLG (.498) over the last 14 days and can play spoiler to the Boston Red Sox, who are 4.5 games out of the AL’s final wild-card spot.
The Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins are both currently safe in wild-card seeding but have divisional aspirations, too. They’ll kick off a three-game set in Minnesota tonight with Max Fried (3.57 ERA) and Bailey Ober (3.54 ERA) on the bump.
Tennis is one of the most popular sports in the world, and it reaches its pinnacle on two tours: the ATP for men and the WTA for women.
Over the past 20 years, tennis has largely been dominated by four big names: Novak Djokovic, Serena Williams, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. But with that era waning, a new era of stars is emerging, led by young Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz.
-> New to tennis wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Betsto get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.
-> New to tennis wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Betsto get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.
Now is a great time to embrace tennis and learn about betting on it, too.
How to bet on tennis
The legalization of single-game betting in Canada presents the perfect opportunity to grow familiar with the different ways you can bet on your favourite sports.
From match spreads to player props, we will run you through the most popular ways to bet on tennis.
-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets account to explore live odds and daily tennis markets.
-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets accountto explore live odds and daily tennis markets
Match winners
Picking the winner of a match is the most popular way to bet on tennis, due in part to its simplicity.
One player will be denoted as the favourite, with a (-) sign next to their name, while the other will be the underdog, with a (+) sign next to their name. Think of this as a moneyline (ML) wager.
Let’s use a hypothetical match between Alcaraz and Djokovic at the Wimbledon as an example. Djokovic is known for being the best grass player in the world, which would likely lead him to be favoured, and the odds could look something like this:
Novak Djokovic (-150) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (+120).
-> Want to see current tennis moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets
-> Want to see current tennis moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets
In this scenario, Djokovic at -150 has a 60% implied probability to win. This means you would have to bet $150 to win $100. The extra $50 is the commission the sportsbook takes and is known as the juice.
Sometimes there will be matches where the favourite sits at -1,000 or more to win. At -1000 the book is placing a 90% implied probability of victory.
Roger Federer was typically a massive favourite during his prime. Photo by Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP.
Ashleigh Barty was the WTA world No. 1 prior to her shocking retirement at the age of 25. You could often find her as a massive favourite in the early rounds of tournaments.
If superstar WTA player Iga Swiatek were to play Julia Grabher, the No. 90-ranked player, you should expect to see odds at -1,250 or more for Swiatek to win.
Some other examples of odds and their accompanying payouts:
-125: Bet $125 to win $100 -400: Bet $400 to win $100 +175: A $100 bet wins $175 +300: A $100 bet wins $300
Match handicaps
Match handicap is essentially betting the spread for tennis.
Sportsbooks set a number of games they believe the favourite will win by and you have to decide whether or not the favourite will cover that amount to win. This allows bettors to get even odds for an uneven match.
Take the example of Swiatek and Grabher from above. It’s not worth betting Swiatek on the moneyline, as you’d need to risk $1,250 to win $100. Also, it is very unlikely that Grabher wins, so her ML action is also not the play. The match handicap provides a way to bet Swiatek or Grabher with a good return on investment.
Match handicaps are typically provided with odds set at -110 apiece. You may see some variance — possibly -130 odds on one side and +110 on the other — but the odds are usually close to even.
Using the same Swiatek vs. Grabher example, the match handicap could be set at 6.5, meaning Swiatek would have to win by 7 games or more. If Swiatek won the match 6-2, 6-3, that would mean she bested Grabher in total games, 12-5. With a difference of seven, Swiatek would have covered the match handicap.
If Swiatek won 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 that would mean a 15-12 win overall, and Grabher would win the match handicap bet.
The match handicap can change drastically based on who is competing, what surface is being played on and who is riding a hot streak.
-> Ready to try handicap betting?Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines daily
-> Ready to try handicap betting? Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines daily
Set betting
Set betting allows you to wager more specifically on how you think a match will play out. There are options to bet either competitor to win 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2 for ATP matches, as well as 2-0 or 2-1 for WTA matches.
Let’s use a fairly even ATP match to demonstrate how this would work. On the moneyline, we’ll say Stefanos Tsitsipas is a -130 favourite, while Taylor Fritz is a +120 underdog. Here are their set betting odds:
3-0: Tsitsipas (+300), Fritz (+500) 3-1: Tsitsipas (+333), Fritz (+450) 3-2: Tsitsipas (+500), Fritz (+430)
The book assumes Tsitsipas has the best chance to win in straight sets, while Fritz’s best chance is to force a long and gruelling match, winning 3-2 (at +430).
If a player is -600 to win outright, and you are confident they will demolish their opponent, it could be a good idea to bet them to win in straight sets, where you may find better value.
Totals
There are multiple ways to bet totals in tennis, varying from individual sets to match totals. This is also referred to as an over/under, or O/U. Typically, both the over and under will be designated with -110 odds.
The most common O/U to bet on is total games, in which you are wagering on how long the match will last. Suppose the O/U for total games in a WTA match is set at 20.5.
There are a number of ways you can bet on Bianca Andreescu in any of her tennis matches. Photo by Seth Wenig/AP.
If the match were to end 6-0, 4-6, 6-2, then the total amount of games is 24, and the over would win. If the match ended 6-2, 6-0, the total games would sit at 14 and cash the under.
The same rule applies for set game totals, but the number would look smaller, perhaps around 7.5.
You can also bet on total sets, which may look like this for an ATP matchup:
Every tournament is comprised of dozens of head-to-head matches, but the ultimate goal for each player is to win the event.
Picking an outright winner allows bettors to decide who will win the event, whether the bet is placed before or during the tournament.
Let’s assume you’re picking an outright winner before the tournament starts. The highest seeds will likely have the best odds. For the ATP, that might include players like Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev. In the WTA, you could see players like Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.
As you go further down the seeding, longer odds will appear for players who are deemed less likely to win the tournament. For instance, Felix Auger-Aliassime could be set at +5,000 to win a high-level event before it begins.
These odds shift based on who is remaining in the tournament. If Auger-Aliassime progresses to the round of 32, his odds could shift to around +1,500.
When Bianca Andreescu won the U.S Open in 2019, her pre-tournament outright odds were set at +1400, according to SB Nation. This means a $100 bet would have netted a $1,400 profit.
How to bet on tennis props
Tennis has a robust prop market. Within every match, there are hundreds of options for prop bets, which are typically split into match and player props.
Player props are denoted for one specific competitor and are often presented in an over/under or yes/no format. Let’s use Denis Shapovalov as an example:
Shapovalov O/U 6.5 aces (-110) Shapovalov O/U 19.5 game wins (-110) To win from behind: Yes (+400) No (-500)
You can bet on Denis Shapovalov props if you’re uninterested in wagering on outright markets. Photo by Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP.
Match props combine possible outcomes from both competitors. Here are some examples:
First set total games O/U 9.5 (Over -175, Under +130) Total breaks of serve O/U 4.5 (Over -163, Under +120) Match total double faults O/U 4.5 (Over -120, Under -120)
There are many more props to choose from, so take a close look when deciding what you want to place.
-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting aces, faults and much more
-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting aces, faults and much more
Live betting
Live betting is a way to bet on a match once it is underway. This may provide an opportunity to back a pre-match favourite who has shifted to underdog odds.
Let’s say Leylah Fernandez was -200 to win the match prior to its start. If she were to lose the first set, the odds to win could shift to something like +200 on the live market. With that change, the ROI on a $100 bet would go from $50 to $200 after just one set.
Live betting set winners is also common practice. Odds fluctuate drastically on a point-to-point basis when live betting sets. For instance, if one player breaks another’s serve, you will see their live odds shorten.
You can also live bet individual points, games or over/unders.
-> Experience live tennis betting as it happens – sign up with NorthStar Bets and get in on every serve
-> Experience live tennis betting as it happens – sign up with NorthStar Bets and get in on every serve
How to bet on tennis parlays
To build a parlay, combine two or more selections (also called legs) into one bet slip. You can combine multiple markets into a parlay, mixing match winners, spreads, props and more.
When parlaying, you assume greater risk compared to when you place individual wagers — that’s because every leg must win for your parlay to be successful. So if you have a five-leg parlay and only four legs cash, you lose.
Denis Shapovolov to win match (+150) Andrey Rublev -3.5 match handicap (-110) Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 3-0 (+270)
The combined odds for this particular parlay would be +1665, which potentially turns a $100 wager into a $1,665 profit.
-> Ready to put your tennis knowledge to use ? Sign up for NorthStar Bets to access live odds, props, parlays and exclusive Canadian Insights all season long
-> Ready to put your tennis knowledge to use ? Sign up for NorthStar Bets to access live odds, props, parlays and exclusive Canadian Insights all season long
A future hall-of-famer takes the mound in Los Angeles tonight.
The pregame narrative: Clayton Kershaw makes his sixth start since returning from the IL and I like him to carve up the offensively inept Tampa Bay Rays. Also, bet Mookie Betts to score at a reasonable price.
Check out my Rays vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 24.
Kershaw has been a horse his entire career but it looked like the glue factory was approaching.
The veteran underwent surgery to repair his shoulder last offseason after a miserable NLDS performance (0.1 IP, six earned runs). Then, he got lit up by the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres in his first two starts back.
But Kershaw has looked vintage since.
He has a 1.10 ERA across three starts in August. The lefty cleared this line twice and most recently threw 6.0 innings of shutout ball against the St. Louis Cardinals. Before that, he recorded 17 outs against a strong Milwaukee Brewers lineup.
The Rays don’t possess an offence that scares anyone and I expect Kershaw to go over this number for a third straight game.
Tampa Bay has the worst batting average (.152) and second-lowest wRC+ (49) against lefties since the trade deadline.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to treat Kershaw with kid gloves and he won’t be throwing 90-plus pitches. But that should still be enough wiggle room to get into the sixth inning.
Key stat: Four of the last five starters to face Tampa Bay have cleared this line (all recorded 6.0+ IP).
Quick pick
Betts over 0.5 runs (-106): Taj Bradley gets the ball for Tampa Bay and he’s been getting smoked lately.
The second-year righty has an 8.10 ERA in his last four starts and opponents are slashing .321/.387/.593.
Betts went 0-for-4 yesterday and has just two hits in his last four games. But he’s one of the best players in baseball and has a spectacular .396 OBP against RHP this year.
He’s never faced Bradley before but I like his chances of getting on base tonight.
And as Los Angeles’ No. 2 hitter, he’ll get Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez batting behind him. That’s a luxury. Hernandez is one of the only Dodgers with experience against Bradley and he’s 2-for-5 with a double.
Two of baseball’s best arms factor into today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Blake Snell has a pair of Cy Young awards under his belt and Tarik Skubal is poised to join the club soon enough. I’m backing each of them to clear their out totals today. Elsewhere, I’m fading Framber Valdez against the Baltimore Orioles.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 24.
Check out his stats over eight starts since being activated from the IL on July 9:
1.03 ERA
.117 opponent BA
.170 opponent SLG
52.1 IP
70 strikeouts
Those numbers speak for themselves but let’s dig a little deeper.
Last year’s Cy Young winner has cleared this total in three of his last four starts. That includes a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds on Aug. 2 and 6.1 innings of shutout ball against the Atlanta Braves two weeks ago.
Now, he gets to go up against a Seattle Mariners team which can’t hit lefties.
That’s no exaggeration — the Mariners have the lowest batting average against southpaws since the all-star break (.180) and the third-lowest wRC+ (70).
Snell is also a bonafide workhorse, throwing 106.6 pitches on average over his last five starts. He’s also dominated this Mariners lineup in the past.
Key stat: Seattle is batting .186 with a 31.3% K rate against Snell in 80 combined plate appearances, per Baseball Savant.
Quick picks
Skubal over 18.5 outs (+102): Consider this a co-best bet. I love Skubal’s chances of dicing through the historically inept White Sox today.
The AL Cy Young award frontrunner has an MLB-best 2.49 ERA while ranking second in WHIP (0.93).
He’s cleared this line in four of his last six starts while landing on exactly 18.0 outs — or 6.0 IP — in the outliers.
Skubal has an extensive history against Chicago and the results aren’t pretty … for the White Sox.
He’s held their current lineup to a .205 batting average and .260 SLG in 78 combined plate appearances.
He fell just shy of this total in his only start against them this year, throwing 6.0 shutout innings. But that was on opening day and he was limited to just 83 pitches.
Chicago ranks bottom-two in batting average, runs per game, wRC+, slugging percentage, and just about every other offensive metric you can imagine.
I’m officially putting a no-hitter watch on this game.
Valdez under 17.5 outs (+120): Valdez is on a tear right now, clearing this line five times in his last seven starts while posting a 1.94 ERA. But I think the O’s can bring him back down to earth.
The Toronto Blue Jays aim for a sixth-straight win over the Los Angeles Angels.
The pregame narrative: Toronto walked off L.A. last night after Joey Loperfido and Addison Barger hit back-to-back solo shots in the ninth. I’m backing the Jays to take an early lead behind strong performances from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bowden Francis
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on Aug. 24.
This was my best bet yesterday but Guerrero was given an unexpected off day.
It’s annoying when that happens but even the best players in baseball need time to recover. And Guerrero has certainly cemented himself as one of the league’s best players this season.
His .316 batting average is the fourth-best in MLB while his .935 OPS ranks eighth.
Vladdy has caught fire over his last 50 games, slashing .371/.429/.753 with 21 doubles and 17 home runs. He cashed this wager in 60% of those contests.
Yesterday’s push drew no blood so I’m running back this bases prop as my best bet.
The Jays get Carson Fulmer, a soft-throwing righty who’s struggled lately. Fulmer has a 5.56 ERA over his last five starts and Toronto tagged him for five earned runs in three innings on Aug. 13.
Vladdy took the 30-year-old deep in that game on an 89 mph sweeper. He grounded with a 110 mph exit velocity the at-bat before that, per Baseball Savant.
Fulmer’s pitch mix is non-threatening and profiles as the type of stuff our guy should destroy.
His most used pitch is a changeup which he throws 27% of the time. On top of that Fulmer either throws a 4-seam fastball or sinker 47% of the time. Both of those pitches come in at sub-95 mph.
Key stat: Guerrero is batting .328 with a .550 SLG against changeups and fastballs below 95mph this season.
Quick pick
Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-143): Toronto’s entire lineup gave Fulmer issues the last time he took the mound against them. Things shouldn’t get any easier for him today.
The Blue Jays bats are red hot with an MLB-leading 23 home runs since August 11. In that span, they also top the majors in extra-base hits (51) and are second in SLG (.492).
Fulmer’s 5.03 road ERA is also noticeably worse than his 3.57 mark at home.
On the other side of the coin, Francis has been red hot.
The righty has a 2.16 ERA since returning to Toronto’s starting rotation. He’s logged consecutive 7.0 IP starts against the Chicago Cubs and Angels, giving up just four combined hits and one run in those contests.
His stat line against LAA: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 8 K, 81 pitches.
Here’s hoping he gives the Angels fits again today.
The Toronto Blue Jays aim for a sixth-straight win over the Los Angeles Angels.
The pregame narrative: Toronto walked off L.A. last night after Joey Loperfido and Addison Barger hit back-to-back solo shots in the ninth. I’m backing the Jays to take an early lead behind strong performances from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bowden Francis
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on Aug. 24.
This was my best bet yesterday but Guerrero was given an unexpected off day.
It’s annoying when that happens but even the best players in baseball need time to recover. And Guerrero has certainly cemented himself as one of the league’s best players this season.
His .316 batting average is the fourth-best in MLB while his .935 OPS ranks eighth.
Vladdy has caught fire over his last 50 games, slashing .371/.429/.753 with 21 doubles and 17 home runs. He cashed this wager in 60% of those contests.
Yesterday’s push drew no blood so I’m running back this bases prop as my best bet.
The Jays get Carson Fulmer, a soft-throwing righty who’s struggled lately. Fulmer has a 5.56 ERA over his last five starts and Toronto tagged him for five earned runs in three innings on Aug. 13.
Vladdy took the 30-year-old deep in that game on an 89 mph sweeper. He grounded with a 110 mph exit velocity the at-bat before that, per Baseball Savant.
Fulmer’s pitch mix is non-threatening and profiles as the type of stuff our guy should destroy.
His most used pitch is a changeup which he throws 27% of the time. On top of that Fulmer either throws a 4-seam fastball or sinker 47% of the time. Both of those pitches come in at sub-95 mph.
Key stat: Guerrero is batting .328 with a .550 SLG against changeups and fastballs below 95mph this season.
Quick pick
Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-122): Toronto’s entire lineup gave Fulmer issues the last time he took the mound against them. Things shouldn’t get any easier for him today.
The Blue Jays bats are red hot with an MLB-leading 23 home runs since August 11. In that span, they also top the majors in extra-base hits (51) and are second in SLG (.492).
Fulmer’s 5.03 road ERA is also noticeably worse than his 3.57 mark at home.
On the other side of the coin, Francis has been red hot.
The righty has a 2.16 ERA since returning to Toronto’s starting rotation. He’s logged consecutive 7.0 IP starts against the Chicago Cubs and Angels, giving up just four combined hits and one run in those contests.
His stat line against LAA: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 8 K, 81 pitches.
Here’s hoping he gives the Angels fits again today.
A pair of superstars headline today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Sometimes you just have to play the hits. Juan Soto and Mookie Betts are in plus matchups and I expect both of them to record multiple bases. Elsewhere, MacKenzie Gore’s strikeout total is worth a look.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 23.
I was looking at every Aaron Judge prop on the book against Colorado’s Kyle Freeland (5.97 ERA) but his lines were far too juiced up for my liking.
The AL MVP frontrunner is -141 to record multiple bases and -182 to score. So instead, I’ll back Soto, who is the Robin to Judge’s Batman.
That’s probably an unfair way to describe the first-year Yankee, though.
Soto is batting .299 with the fifth-most home runs (36) and third-most RBI (93) in baseball. He also ranks second in OPS (1.037) and runs scored (107).
If Judge wasn’t doing what he’s doing, Soto would be a strong choice to take home the MVP.
It’s worth noting Soto ranks in Baseball Savant’s 100th percentile for walk rate which makes him a risk on the bases prop. But he crushes the ball when he connects, also ranking in the 100th percentile for xBA (.323) and xSLG (.684).
He’s hit two home runs in his last three games and has cleared this total in five of his last 10.
Key stat: Freeland has an 8.23 ERA and a .364 opponent batting average on the road this year.
Quick picks
Betts over 1.5 bases (-108): Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers go up against Tyler Alexander and the Tampa Bay Rays tonight.
Alexander, a southpaw, has been in quite the groove since being activated from the IL in July. In five appearances he’s posted a 2.25 ERA to pair with a .227 OBA.
But Betts has been on a tear of his own since re-joining the Dodgers lineup.
The shortstop is batting .300 in 10 games with three doubles and a pair of home runs. He’s cleared this line in seven of those contests.
Betts runs impressive .337/.404/.490 splits against lefties and I expect him to get after Alexander tonight.
Gore over 5.5 strikeouts (+118): I’m sure most bettors will be lining up to back Chris Sale’s strikeout total in this lefty-vs-lefty matchup instead of Gore. But I think that’s the wrong arm to look at.
Sale might be shoving but Washington has the lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since the all-star break (16.7%). Atlanta, meanwhile, has the second-highest rate in the same span (31.3%).
Gore has an extensive history against this Braves lineup with a 27.3% K rate in 77 plate appearances.
He’s played them twice this year and racked up seven and 10 punchouts in those outings. Gore has also cleared this line in two of his last three starts.
The New York Mets and San Diego Padres jockey for wild-card seeding tonight.
The pregame narrative: San Diego holds the NL’s second wild-card spot and is 5.5 games clear of New York, which currently sits out of the playoff picture. I’ve got two prop bets on Jackson Merrill and I am fading Mets starter Paul Blackburn.
Check out my Mets vs. Padres prop picks for Aug. 23.
Merrill has been trading blows with Paul Skenes in the NL Rookie of the Year race.
San Diego’s centre fielder is batting .303 in August with five home runs and a 1.105 OPS. That has brought his season-long slash line to an impressive .289/.319/.486 with 18 home runs and 71 RBI.
Earlier this week, he became the betting favourite to take home the hardware.
Do I think he’ll win? No. In fact, just yesterday I placed a bet on Skenes at +100. That line has since flipped with Pittsburgh’s ace re-taking pole position after throwing six shutout innings (nine Ks).
But that’s not to take away from how good Merrill has been.
On top of having an above-average glove, he’s been on a rampage at the plate. Merrill has a hit in six of his last seven games, clearing this line in five of those contests.
He went 0-for-4 last night but is in a good spot to rebound against Blackburn.
New York’s starter ranks in the bottom-third percentile for xERA (4.36), xBA (.261), and K rate (19.3) on Baseball Savant. Blackburn mostly gives up soft contact but a player like Merrill should be able to put the bat on the ball and find a gap.
Key stat: Merrill has five extra-base hits in his last seven games.
Quick pick
Merrill over 0.5 RBI (+170): I want to double-dip on Merrill at plus money.
The value here is insane to me. Merrill is batting sixth in San Diego’s lineup behind the likes of Manny Machado, Xander Bogarts and Jake Cronenworth.
His 71 RBI are the fourth-most on the team and 17 of those have come this month (five in his last four games).
Opponents are getting on base at a .330 clip against Blackburn since he joined New York. Merrill should have an opportunity to drive some of his teammates home.
Blackburn under 17.5 outs (-122): Blackburn has cleared this line in three of four games as a Met but I’m not sold.
He landed on exactly 6.0 IP (18.0 outs) in each of those contests and was going up against some cupcake opponents in the Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels.
Those teams rank 29th, 28th and 24th, respectively, in wRC+ on the season. San Diego is seventh.
Blackburn’s underlying numbers are ugly and he’s going up against a lineup which can expose that. Fade him tonight.
The Toronto Blue Jays host the Los Angeles Angels for some Friday night baseball.
The pregame narrative: Tonight’s matchup is far from a pitcher’s duel. Chris Bassitt and Jack Kochanowicz take the mound for Toronto and L.A., respectively, and I don’t trust either to perform. Back Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bases prop and take the over.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on Aug. 23.
Guerrero’s bases prop is worth a look any time he steps up to the plate.
Simply put, Vladdy has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He’s slashing .371/.429/.753 with 21 doubles and 17 home runs over the last 50 games, cashing this wager 60% of the time.
He went 0-for-3 last night but has still cleared this mark in two of his last four and three of his last six outings.
Tonight presents a nice opportunity for him to get back on the horse.
Kochanowicz is an inexperienced arm with a mixed bag of results in the majors. He has a 6.53 ERA through four starts and got lit up by the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners before logging quality starts against the Washington Nations and Atlanta Braves.
His minor-league stats also aren’t anything to write home about.
Kochanowicz posted a 4.50 ERA and 7.6 K/9 rate in 102.0 IP in Double-A before his call-up in July.
The 23-year-old righty throws a high-90s sinker 64% of the time, according to Baseball Savant, and that’s a pitch Guerrero should feast against.
Key stat: Guerrero is batting .292 against fastballs above 95mph this season.
Quick pick
Over 8.5 runs (-130): Toronto’s offence is on quite a tear. Since August 11 it ranks first in home runs (21), extra-base hits (47), and SLG (.488).
I can’t see Kochanowicz cooling those bats and also don’t trust Bassitt to have a decent outing.
The veteran right-hander is in a bad place right now. He has a 6.91 ERA in eight starts since July 1 with an .296/.374/.497 opponent slash line.
The Angels’ offence is anemic but Bassitt is giving up plenty of hard contact (eight HR in last six starts) and has struggled to perform at Rogers Centre this year.
His 4.67 home ERA is noticeably higher than his 3.90 road ERA.
The Toronto Blue Jays host the Los Angeles Angels for some Friday night baseball.
The pregame narrative: Tonight’s matchup is far from a pitcher’s duel. Chris Bassitt and Jack Kochanowicz take the mound for Toronto and L.A., respectively, and I don’t trust either to perform. Back Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bases prop and take the over.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on Aug. 23.
Guerrero’s bases prop is worth a look any time it’s at plus money.
Simply put, Vladdy has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He’s slashing .371/.429/.753 with 21 doubles and 17 home runs over the last 50 games, cashing this wager 60% of the time.
He went 0-for-3 last night but has still cleared this mark in two of his last four and three of his last six outings.
Tonight presents a nice opportunity for him to get back on the horse.
Kochanowicz is an inexperienced arm with a mixed bag of results in the majors. He has a 6.53 ERA through four starts and got lit up by the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners before logging quality starts against the Washington Nations and Atlanta Braves.
His minor-league stats also aren’t anything to write home about.
Kochanowicz posted a 4.50 ERA and 7.6 K/9 rate in 102.0 IP in Double-A before his call-up in July.
The 23-year-old righty throws a high-90s sinker 64% of the time, according to Baseball Savant, and that’s a pitch Guerrero should feast against.
Key stat: Guerrero is batting .292 against fastballs above 95mph this season.
Quick pick
Over 8.5 runs (-122): Toronto’s offence is on quite a tear. Since August 11 it ranks first in home runs (21), extra-base hits (47), and SLG (.488).
I can’t see Kochanowicz cooling those bats and also don’t trust Bassitt to have a decent outing.
The veteran right-hander is in a bad place right now. He has a 6.91 ERA in eight starts since July 1 with an .296/.374/.497 opponent slash line.
The Angels’ offence is anemic but Bassitt is giving up plenty of hard contact (eight HR in last six starts) and has struggled to perform at Rogers Centre this year.
His 4.67 home ERA is noticeably higher than his 3.90 road ERA.
