The Toronto Blue Jays aim for a sixth-straight win over the Los Angeles Angels.
The pregame narrative: Toronto walked off L.A. last night after Joey Loperfido and Addison Barger hit back-to-back solo shots in the ninth. I’m backing the Jays to take an early lead behind strong performances from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bowden Francis
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on Aug. 24.
Blue Jays picks vs. Angels
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Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+105)
This was my best bet yesterday but Guerrero was given an unexpected off day.
It’s annoying when that happens but even the best players in baseball need time to recover. And Guerrero has certainly cemented himself as one of the league’s best players this season.
His .316 batting average is the fourth-best in MLB while his .935 OPS ranks eighth.
Vladdy has caught fire over his last 50 games, slashing .371/.429/.753 with 21 doubles and 17 home runs. He cashed this wager in 60% of those contests.
Yesterday’s push drew no blood so I’m running back this bases prop as my best bet.
The Jays get Carson Fulmer, a soft-throwing righty who’s struggled lately. Fulmer has a 5.56 ERA over his last five starts and Toronto tagged him for five earned runs in three innings on Aug. 13.
Vladdy took the 30-year-old deep in that game on an 89 mph sweeper. He grounded with a 110 mph exit velocity the at-bat before that, per Baseball Savant.
Fulmer’s pitch mix is non-threatening and profiles as the type of stuff our guy should destroy.
His most used pitch is a changeup which he throws 27% of the time. On top of that Fulmer either throws a 4-seam fastball or sinker 47% of the time. Both of those pitches come in at sub-95 mph.
Key stat: Guerrero is batting .328 with a .550 SLG against changeups and fastballs below 95mph this season.
Quick pick
Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-122): Toronto’s entire lineup gave Fulmer issues the last time he took the mound against them. Things shouldn’t get any easier for him today.
The Blue Jays bats are red hot with an MLB-leading 23 home runs since August 11. In that span, they also top the majors in extra-base hits (51) and are second in SLG (.492).
Fulmer’s 5.03 road ERA is also noticeably worse than his 3.57 mark at home.
On the other side of the coin, Francis has been red hot.
The righty has a 2.16 ERA since returning to Toronto’s starting rotation. He’s logged consecutive 7.0 IP starts against the Chicago Cubs and Angels, giving up just four combined hits and one run in those contests.
His stat line against LAA: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 8 K, 81 pitches.
Here’s hoping he gives the Angels fits again today.
Picks made at 8:24 a.m. on 08/24/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.