Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.
The latest: The Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers play out their rubber match in a potential World Series preview. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies kick off a pivotal series while the Kansas City Royals visit the Houston Astros.
Check out the latest MLB odds for Monday, Aug. 29.
The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox wrap up their series in Fenway Park with the red-hot Bowden Francis pitching for the visitors. Francis has a 1.33 ERA in his last four starts and just threw 8.0 no-hit innings his last time out. Boston counters with Kutter Crawford (4.19 ERA).
Philadelphia holds a five-game lead over Atlanta in the NL East standings but the pesky Braves won’t go away. They’re 8-2 in the last 10 games while the Phillies are 5-5. Charlie Morton (4.24 ERA) gets the ball for Atlanta opposite Cristopher Sanchez (3.51 ERA).
The Royals are one game up in the AL Central while the Astros have a comfier 3.5-game lead in the AL West. Getting something out of this series will be huge for either team. Brady Singer (3.38 ERA) and Hunter Brown (3.72 ERA) have both been pitching well and the game total is tied for the lowest on the slate.
Baltimore is one game behind the New York Yankees after a very mediocre run. The O’s are 10-10 in their last 20 games while scoring just 3.9 runs per game in their last 10. They should have a chance to get after Bobby Miller (7.49 ERA) tonight, though.
I’m backing a pair of young bats to come through in today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Colt Keith and Corbin Carroll have been on fire. I like the former to clear his bases prop in a nice matchup and the latter to cross the plate for the surging Arizona Diamondbacks.
Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for Aug. 28.
What if I told you you could back a player batting .405 in his last 10 games to clear his bases prop at plus money? Against a struggling pitcher, no less.
Well, that’s what’s going on here.
Keith has been having a respectable rookie season for the Detroit Tigers, posting a .264/.315/.395 slash line as a plus defender. And he’s caught fire lately with four multi-hit games in his last six starts.
Only two of those hits went for extra bases (one double, one HR) but he has a nice opportunity to hit for power against Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning tonight.
Canning has a miserable 6.14 ERA across his last 10 starts. Opponents are slugging .470 against him in that span with nine home runs. One of those outings was against the Tigers, when Keith went 1-for-3 with a double.
Baseball Savant’s advanced metrics paint an equally grim picture for Canning. He ranks in the 21st percentile or lower for xBA (.266), xERA (4.78), K rate (17.0%) and hard-hit rate (42.2%).
The red-hot rookie should have himself a night.
Key stat: Keith is batting .400 vs. RHPs in his last 10 games.
Quick picks
Carroll to score (-132): Carroll’s sophomore slump hasn’t been pretty. The 2023 NL Rookie of the Year is batting .223 after posting a .285 mark last season and was under the Mendoza Line at the start of June.
But he’s still scoring at an impressive clip and is heating up at the plate, too.
Carroll has scored 94 runs this year and 25 of them have come in August. That’s the most in MLB this month. He’s slashing .259/.330/.600 in that span with 10 extra-base hits.
That makes him a threat to put himself across the plate in one swing. But just getting on base should do.
The Diamondbacks are 11-5 this month thanks to an offensive explosion. They rank first in wRC+ (133) and SLG (.486) and have have the fifth-lowest K rate (19.4%).
Arizona hosts Luis Severino and the New York Mets.
Severino has enjoyed a solid year but Carroll found success in their lone meeting, going 2-for-3 with a pair of singles off New York’s right-hander.
I’m backing three road teams in these EPL Matchday 3 picks
The pregame narrative: Brighton is off to a hot start under a new manager and I like them to score against Arsenal. Elsewhere, back Tottenham and Aston Villa to pick up the full three points against Newcastle and Leicester City.
I understand a -150 wager isn’t the most palatable but I think that’s a price worth paying.
Brighton is off to an electric start this season. They’re 2-0-0 with wins over Manchester United (2-1) and Everton (3-0). Outside of league play, the Seagulls beat Villareal 4-0 in a friendly and Crawley Town 4-0 in an EFL Cup match.
It’s hard not to be impressed with what 31-year-old manager Fabian Hürzeler is doing.
That’s right, Hürzeler is the youngest permanent head coach in Premier League history. Before his time with Brighton, he coached FC St. Pauli and had them promoted to the Bundesliga.
Cracking Mikel Arteta’s side at the Emirates will be challenging — the Gunners conceded a league-low 29 goals last season — but I think Hürzeler has the tools for the job.
Brighton’s 3.5 non-penalty xG is the fifth-most in the EPL through two games, per FBRef.
Key stat: Brighton has scored in all seven games since Hürzeler was appointed while averaging 3.28 goals per game.
Quick pick
Tottenham to win (+155): Let’s balance out the last wager with a nice plus-money pick. Tottenham’s offence was flashing on Matchday 2 when it dismantled Everton, 4-0, at home.
Now, the Blues are a borderline relegation side and Newcastle will be a tougher out at St. James’ Park, but I still like the Spurs here.
Tottenham had a road win in the bag on Matchday 1 at Leicester but let it slip away in the second half. In that match, we saw the team’s ability to relentlessly press in the first 45 minutes, outshooting its opponent 10-to-1 (0.54 xG to 0.01).
I expect Ange Postecoglou to employ similar tactics against Newcastle, which hasn’t looked that good so far.
The Magpies are 1-1-0 with a draw to Bournemouth (1-1) and a win over Southampton (1-0). They’ll also be playing an EFL Cup match at the time of writing on Wednesday, which means the Spurs should be just a little fresher.
Aston Villa to win (-124): Building off that last point, I think Aston Villa should beat Leicester at King Power Stadium.
The Foxes might have escaped with a draw against Tottenham but weren’t the better side for most of the game. The following week they lost, 2-1, away at Fulham.
Villa just took a 2-0 defeat at Arsenal but had several grade-A chances squandered while generating 1.2 xG.
Leicester is nowhere near Arsenal’s level defensively and is just two seasons removed from being relegated. I think Unai Emery’s guys will make a statement on Saturday.
The Philadelphia Phillies look to sweep the Houston Astros at Citizens Bank Park tonight.
The pregame narrative: J.T. Realmuto has been on a tear and I expect him to stay hot in a plus matchup. Also, Jose Altuve is worth backing to score against one of baseball’s worst arms.
Check out my Astros vs. Phillies prop picks for Aug. 28.
Philadelphia’s catcher is batting .352 with a 1.045 OPS across his last 15 games. He’s cashed this wager eight times including in each of his last five outings. And in those five games, he’s hit four doubles and two home runs.
Now that’s a heater.
Getting Realmuto at this price tag seems generous, especially considering almost all of his damage lately has been against righties:
BA
OBP
SLG
XBH
Last 15 games vs. RHP
.436
.463
.846
10
Last 15 games vs. LHP
.133
.235
.133
0
Spencer Arrighetti has been a solid arm for the Astros lately, posting a 3.16 ERA over his last seven starts.
Still, he ranks in the 36th percentile for barrell rate and 26th percentile for hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant, and is susceptible to giving up extra bases.
Arrighetti also has a 5.49 ERA on the road this year.
Key stat: Realmuto has 19 total bases in his last five games (3.8/game).
Quick pick
Altuve to score (-113): Altuve is going through a rough patch right now but there’s no better time to back Houston’s leadoff man.
Walker has been legitimately horrible for the Phillies this season. He owns a bloated 6.26 ERA to pair with a 1.58 WHIP. Both marks would be the worst in MLB if he had thrown enough innings to qualify.
The 32-year-old has a 9.26 ERA across three starts this month, putting 23 players on base in 11.2 innings.
Altuve is 11-for-32 against Walker (.344 BA) with three doubles and a home run. His 74 runs pace the Astros and his .350 OBP ranks second behind only Yordan Alvarez.
The PGA Tour playoffs conclude with the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club.
The latest: Scottie Scheffler starts the tournament in pole position at 10-under, two strokes clear of Xander Schauffele. The other 28 golfers are staggered from -7 to even par based on season-long FedEx Cup point accumulation.
Check out our Tour Championship odds and best bets for the tournament beginning on Aug. 29.
Scheffler is coming off his worst start of the season.
He finished T33 in a field of 50 golfers and lost strokes on approach for the first time since August of 2022. Scheffler appeared to tweak his back in the first round at the BMW Championship but later stated he was “fine” despite some uncharacteristic play.
That said, he still starts first thanks to winning six times on tour, all of which were at signature events or majors.
Schauffele is next and I believe he’s the best play — but more on that later.
Another player shrouded in question marks is Hideki Matsuyama (starting third at -7). The Japanese superstar won the FedEx St. Jude before withdrawing from the BMW Championship with a back injury.
I can’t get behind him with that type of risk.
Taylor Pendrith is the lone Canadian in the field and he’s well down the odds board at 350-to-1.
Tour Championship best bets
Schauffele to win (+225): I’m not exactly going out on a limb by picking Schauffele.
The 30-year-old just joined elite company by winning two majors in one season and has been remarkably consistent. He has eight top-five finishes in addition to his two victories and finished top-10 in all four majors (T7 U.S. Open, eighth Masters).
Schauffele just netted a T5 at the BMW Championship and was runner-up at the FedEx St. Jude the week before that.
A few months ago it would’ve been blasphemous to say someone is playing better than Scheffler — but that’s the case right now.
Schauffele ranks first in total strokes gained over the last three months, according to DataGolf. He also leads the entire field in average strokes gained at East Lake (+3.55) with five straight top-five finishes (two runners-up).
That’s enough reason to back him, in my opinion. Adding in the uncertainty with Scheffler and Matsuyama only bolsters Schauffele’s case.
Clark top-10 finish (-110): Wyndham Clark starts this tournament 4-under in a tie for sixth place.
The 2023 U.S. Open champion has been on a nice run of form to close out the year, with three top-10 finishes in his last four PGA Tour starts.
He was T14 at the BMW last week, which was disappointing (especially to me since I picked him to win).
But I’ll go back to the well this week in hopes of another strong performance.
Clark is rolling the rock well right now and finished third at this event last year after shooting the third-best gross score (12-under). He also started in a tie for sixth last season.
The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies continue their series tonight.
The pregame narrative: Justin Verlander makes his second start since returning from a lengthy injured list stint. I expect Bryce Harper to give him trouble. Aaron Nola gets the ball for Philadelphia and his strikeout prop is worth fading.
Harper was the hero last night, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk-off RBI single.
The two-time MVP has cleared this mark in four straight games, going 6-for-16 (.375) with four doubles in that span. He’s seeing the ball well and all signs point to him staying hot tonight.
Verlander looked sharp in his return to action last week, giving up four hits and two earned runs in 5.0 innings against the Boston Red Sox.
But Harper has had his number in the past and I’m not quite sold on Verlander’s pitch mix.
The 41-year-old’s fastball tops out at 96 mph, as it has for the last few years. He throws that pitch roughly 50% of the time, according to Baseball Savant.
That said, Verlander’s fastball has a 0 run value in 2024. That ranks in the 45th percentile. Last year it had a +12 run value (89th percentile).
Harper is 4-for-9 lifetime against Verlander and has crushed fastballs from righties this season. I expect Philadelphia’s top dog to win this battle between two future Hall of Famers.
Key stat: Harper is batting .354 with a .604 SLG against four-seamers under 97 mph this season.
Quick pick
Nola under 5.5 strikeouts (-132): Nola has fallen under this number in five straight starts and now faces one of the least strikeout-prone teams in MLB. This seems like a no-brainer.
The righty used to be an elite swing-and-miss arm but that was in the past. His 8.3 K/9 rate is the lowest since his 2015 rookie season and is just below the league average.
Houston has the third-lowest strikeout rate in MLB (19.3%) and has held six of the last seven opposing starters below this line (including Corbin Burnes). The exception was Zach Wheeler, who just eked by with six Ks last night.
Wheeler has an 81st percentile K rate while Nola is in the 49th percentile.
Every MLB team is in action for a stacked Tuesday slate.
The latest: The Baltimore Orioles head west to begin a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Elsewhere, Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the New York Yankees against the Washington Nationals and the Toronto Blue Jays aim for a sixth (arguably, seventh) straight win.
Check out the latest MLB odds for Monday, Aug. 27.
Toronto resumed its game against the Red Sox, which began on June 26, and won before also beating the Sox in the second leg of Monday’s doubleheader. Only one of those wins counted toward the Blue Jays’ active five-game streak. The Jays are hot, leading MLB in home runs, SLG and wRC+ over the last 14 days.
It took a while but Cole looks like a Cy Young-calibre arm again. The righty has posted a 1.17 ERA through four starts in August with back-to-back 6.0 IP shutout outings. New York is heavily favoured to beat the Washington Nationals, who start Patrick Corbin (5.73 ERA).
The Arizona Diamondbacks hold the pole position in the NL wild-card race while the New York Mets are three games out of the final spot. Arizona has won six games in a row, scoring 7.5 runs per game.
Los Angeles (+350) and Baltimore (+650) hold the shortest and fourth-shortest odds to win the World Series. Tonight, the O’s start Cole Irvin (4.82 ERA) opposite the Dodgers’ Jack Flaherty (3.00). The latter is 3-0 with a no-decision since joining L.A.
Manchester United and Liverpool headline the Premier League’s third matchday.
The latest: Liverpool is favoured to win the Northwest derby at Old Trafford on Sunday. Elsewhere, Brighton and Arsenal meet and hope to remain perfect while Tottenham and Newcastle should be a close match.
Check out the latest EPL Matchday 3 odds.
EPL Matchday 3 odds
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Brighton came out of the gates hot in 2023-24, winning five of the first six games. Now they’re 2-0-0 and face off against Arsenal, which is also 2-0-0. The Gunners are 16-2-2 at home since the start of last season.
Tottenham blew the doors off Everton, 4-0, at home to pick up its first win of the season. Now the side heads to St. James’ Park where Newcastle had an impressive 12-4-3 record last season. The Magpies drew Bournemouth, 1-1, on Matchday 2.
Liverpool remained perfect in the Arne Slot era and now heads on the road to play its biggest rival. Manchester United just lost 2-1 away at Brighton and have just one win in their last seven Premier League fixtures versus Liverpool (1-2-4).
The AFC is a gauntlet brimming with talent and elite quarterback play.
The latest: All eyes are on the Kansas City Chiefs as Patrick Mahomes and Co. look to make history with a three-peat. Five other teams, including the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets hold odds of 10-to-1 or shorter to win the conference.
Check out the best AFC futures bets to make ahead of the new NFL season.
Baltimore is going to be a serious problem — not that it wasn’t last year.
The Ravens posted the NFL’s best regular-season record in 2023 (13-4) en route to an AFC Championship appearance. Lamar Jackson won his second MVP award and the defence was among the best in football.
Sure, they fell short of the ultimate prize but I’m not going to hold that against them. With several key offseason additions, it’s fair to say the team will be even better this time around.
Baltimore’s bread and butter is its smashmouth run game.
The team led the league in rushing yards per game (156.5) even with an injury-plagued RB room. Now, it has future hall-of-famer Derrick Henry in the backfield. How are offences are going to stop that option with Jackson? Your guess is as good as mine.
The Ravens have three All-Pros returning on defence in Roquan Smith, Justin Madubuike and Kyle Hamilton. They anchored a unit which allowed the fewest points per game (16.5), had the most sacks (60.0), and ranked second in defensive EPA per play (-0.127).
Getting homefield advantage come playoffs will be key but I think Baltimore can rip off another 12-13 win season even in a tough AFC North.
I’m a little surprised to see the Miami Dolphins with the third-longest odds to win this division.
It feels like the Buffalo Bills’ competitive window is closing while the Jets have a 40-year-old quarterback coming in off a torn Achilles.
I explained at length why Buffalo is a team to avoid in our Super Bowl best bets piece but here’s the short summary: An inexperienced receiving corps, oft-injured defence, and suspect coaching in the biggest games.
As for the Jets, I just can’t put much trust in Rodgers until he shows me something.
Miami’s offence was videogame-like in 2023 and it ultimately came just short of winning the division. Tua Tagovailoa has improved year-over-year and he’s got Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert at his disposal.
Mike McDaniel’s philosophy is pretty simple: Speed kills.
The defence was underwhelming last year but should be better this time around. Kendall Fuller slots in at CB opposite Jalen Ramsey, while Jordyn Brooks and Jordan Poyer also enter the fold.
It’s going to be a long decade-plus for Carolina Panthers fans watching C.J. Stroud light the league on fire.
Last year’s No. 2 overall pick ran away with the offensive rookie of the year and was even getting some MVP consideration coming down the stretch.
My analysis could start and end with Stroud, who ranked first in passing yards per game (273.9), third in yards per attempt (8.2), and fifth in passer rating (100.8).
This is a quarterback-driven league, after all, and he’s already one of the best.
But the Texans made some big splashes in free agency with Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. Neither player is in their prime but are nice additions to an already-loaded offence featuring Tank Dell, Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts have more questions than answers heading into the season making this pretty clearly the Texans’ division to lose.
AFC futures: Top player props
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
Let’s dig a little deeper into how good Stroud was.
If he produced at the same clip as last year over a full 17 games he would have put up 4656.3 yards, the most in football.
And from Week 8 onwards — after getting a feel for how the NFL operates — he was averaging 288.5 yards per game. That would net out to 4904.5 yards over a full season.
Stroud also led the NFL in average air yards (9.1), per RBSDM, and Diggs is another big-play weapon for him
The Texans aren’t shy to let it fly. If Stroud stays healthy he should absolutely obliterate this total.
Watt to lead the NFL in sacks (+500)
Was T.J. Watt robbed of the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2023?
Ah, who’s to say (me) … but he did lead the league in sacks and I expect that to happen again. Last year you could back Watt on this market at +1,000 preseason (as I did) and now those odds are halved, and reasonably so.
Watt has won this award three times in the last four seasons with the exception being 2022 when he missed seven games with an injury.
Even with that shortened campaign, no one has more sacks than his 96.5 since entering the league in 2017.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have another stud EDGE rusher opposite him in Alex Highsmith with Cameron Heyward being a force on the line. That limits double-team opportunities, which was one of the knocks on Watt’s production last season.
But fewer double teams are great for Watt and great for bettors on this market. He set the NFL record for sacks in 2021 (22.5) and I think he could clear that number this season.
Henry over 10.5 rushing touchdowns (-125)
This line feels absurdly low.
Gus Edwards was Baltimore’s goal line bell cow last season and he nabbed 13 rushing touchdowns. That was one more than Henry who was played in a much, much worse offence.
Baltimore had the second-most red zone scoring attempts per game (3.9) and Edwards had the most carries of any running back within the five-yard line (23).
There’s not much more to say here. I think Henry will threaten to top his career-high touchdown mark set in 2020 (17).
Pittsburgh’s Hall of Fame-bound head coach has never had a losing season. He’s cashed this wager in four straight years with a nightmare quarterback situation.
Rolling with an entirely washed Ben Roethlisberger, Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph it’s a miracle the Black and Gold even got to eight wins some seasons.
But it looks like things are finally turning a corner.
Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are both serious upgrades on the Pickett/Rudolph tandem that was under centre last year.
The offence is loaded with weapons like George Pickens, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth behind a line which really hit its stride in the back half of 2023.
The defence should be among the league’s best if it stays healthy.
Watt and Highsmith are a nasty combo off the edge while All-Pro Patrick Queen was brought in to shore up a weak spot at middle linebacker. The secondary can be suspect at times but Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joey Porter Jr. are capable of being game wreckers.
The Steelers should be in the playoff hunt, as always.
Chargers under 8.5 wins (+125)
I can’t get behind the Chargers this season.
On one hand, a complete overhaul of a 5-12 team is a good thing. On another, I believe it’s asking a bit much of the squad to completely re-invent itself in one offseason.
Jim Harbaugh is a great coach and Justin Herbert is a gunslinger but the team’s receiving corps is entirely unproven and its running back room is aging with injury issues.
That said, it was the defence which was the main problem last year and most of that unit is back.
Jesse Minter came over from Michigan as the team’s new defensive coordinator. He’ll need some time to figure out what works and what doesn’t with a bunch of big names who were often injured and didn’t perform while healthy.
It feels like L.A.’s entire season hinges on Herbert having a career year but he’s already banged up (foot) and has an entirely new offence to master.
I think 2025 is when Harbaugh puts this team on the map.
AFC futures picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 08/26/24.
Jackon Merrill and Ryan Pepiot headline today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Pepiot has been dealing for the Tampa Bay Rays and should work deep against the Seattle Mariners. I’m also backing Merrill to stay hot at the plate and am fading Nestor Cortes in a tough matchup.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 26.
I backed Pepiot to clear his 16.5 out total last Wednesday against the Oakland Athletics.
The righty came through, allowing just two runs over 6.0 innings while striking out five on 90 pitches.
That was his second start since being activated from the IL following a knee infection. He threw 5.1 innings of scoreless ball (also clearing this line) in his return against the Arizona Diamondbacks before that.
The third-year starter now owns a 3.65 ERA to pair with a stellar 1.06 WHIP across 19 starts.
In June, he posted a 1.72 ERA across three starts against the Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees, and Cleveland Guardians before landing on the injured list. All of this is to say, he’s been pitching very well for a solid sample size.
Now he gets the Mariners, whose offence has been in shambles since the all-star break.
Seattle has the lowest batting average (.207) and the second-highest K rate (26.5%) in the second half.
Pepiot played the Mariners earlier this season and dominated them. He gave up one hit and one run while striking out eight over 5.1 IP.
Key stat: Pepiot has cleared this line in five of his last six starts.
Quick picks
Merrill over 1.5 bases (-103): Merrill has re-taken pole position on the NL Rookie of the Year odds board after smacking a walk-off home run last night.
He’s now batting .299 in August with a .996 OPS and 13 extra-base hits. Merrill has a knock in nine of his last 10 games and has cleared this mark in six of those contests.
He goes up against St. Louis’ Kyle Gibson and the 36-year-old righty has been getting smoked this month.
Gibson has a 5.48 ERA in August while opponents are batting .303 with a .906 OPS.
Merrill’s batting average against righties (.318) is more than 100 points greater than his against lefties (.213).
Cortes under 4.5 strikeouts (+128): Cortes is coming off back-to-back quality starts where he threw 7.0 innings against the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox.
Pitching that deep into ballgames is always a risk for fading strikeout totals but I believe the Washington Nationals will give him trouble tonight.
Firstly, Cortes only cleared this line in one of those starts and three of his last seven. He’s primarily a contact pitcher with a basically league-average K rate (22.6, 49th percentile per Baseball Savant).
But back to Washington. The Nationals have the second-lowest K rate against lefties since the all-star break (16.6%) and the seventh-best batting average (.271).
They’re a sneaky productive team that should make the inconsistent southpaw work.
