Jackon Merrill and Ryan Pepiot headline today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Pepiot has been dealing for the Tampa Bay Rays and should work deep against the Seattle Mariners. I’m also backing Merrill to stay hot at the plate and am fading Nestor Cortes in a tough matchup.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 26.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Pepiot over 15.5 outs (-117)
I backed Pepiot to clear his 16.5 out total last Wednesday against the Oakland Athletics.
The righty came through, allowing just two runs over 6.0 innings while striking out five on 90 pitches.
That was his second start since being activated from the IL following a knee infection. He threw 5.1 innings of scoreless ball (also clearing this line) in his return against the Arizona Diamondbacks before that.
The third-year starter now owns a 3.65 ERA to pair with a stellar 1.06 WHIP across 19 starts.
In June, he posted a 1.72 ERA across three starts against the Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees, and Cleveland Guardians before landing on the injured list. All of this is to say, he’s been pitching very well for a solid sample size.
Now he gets the Mariners, whose offence has been in shambles since the all-star break.
Seattle has the lowest batting average (.207) and the second-highest K rate (26.5%) in the second half.
Pepiot played the Mariners earlier this season and dominated them. He gave up one hit and one run while striking out eight over 5.1 IP.
Key stat: Pepiot has cleared this line in five of his last six starts.
Quick picks
Merrill over 1.5 bases (-103): Merrill has re-taken pole position on the NL Rookie of the Year odds board after smacking a walk-off home run last night.
He’s now batting .299 in August with a .996 OPS and 13 extra-base hits. Merrill has a knock in nine of his last 10 games and has cleared this mark in six of those contests.
He goes up against St. Louis’ Kyle Gibson and the 36-year-old righty has been getting smoked this month.
Gibson has a 5.48 ERA in August while opponents are batting .303 with a .906 OPS.
Merrill’s batting average against righties (.318) is more than 100 points greater than his against lefties (.213).
Cortes under 4.5 strikeouts (+128): Cortes is coming off back-to-back quality starts where he threw 7.0 innings against the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox.
Pitching that deep into ballgames is always a risk for fading strikeout totals but I believe the Washington Nationals will give him trouble tonight.
Firstly, Cortes only cleared this line in one of those starts and three of his last seven. He’s primarily a contact pitcher with a basically league-average K rate (22.6, 49th percentile per Baseball Savant).
But back to Washington. The Nationals have the second-lowest K rate against lefties since the all-star break (16.6%) and the seventh-best batting average (.271).
They’re a sneaky productive team that should make the inconsistent southpaw work.
Picks made at 10:34 a.m. ET on 08/26/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.