A pair of superstars headline today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Sometimes you just have to play the hits. Juan Soto and Mookie Betts are in plus matchups and I expect both of them to record multiple bases. Elsewhere, MacKenzie Gore’s strikeout total is worth a look.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 23.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Soto over 1.5 bases (+115)
I was looking at every Aaron Judge prop on the book against Colorado’s Kyle Freeland (5.97 ERA) but his lines were far too juiced up for my liking.
The AL MVP frontrunner is -141 to record multiple bases and -182 to score. So instead, I’ll back Soto, who is the Robin to Judge’s Batman.
That’s probably an unfair way to describe the first-year Yankee, though.
Soto is batting .299 with the fifth-most home runs (36) and third-most RBI (93) in baseball. He also ranks second in OPS (1.037) and runs scored (107).
If Judge wasn’t doing what he’s doing, Soto would be a strong choice to take home the MVP.
It’s worth noting Soto ranks in Baseball Savant’s 100th percentile for walk rate which makes him a risk on the bases prop. But he crushes the ball when he connects, also ranking in the 100th percentile for xBA (.323) and xSLG (.684).
He’s hit two home runs in his last three games and has cleared this total in five of his last 10.
Key stat: Freeland has an 8.23 ERA and a .364 opponent batting average on the road this year.
Quick picks
Betts over 1.5 bases (-108): Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers go up against Tyler Alexander and the Tampa Bay Rays tonight.
Alexander, a southpaw, has been in quite the groove since being activated from the IL in July. In five appearances he’s posted a 2.25 ERA to pair with a .227 OBA.
But Betts has been on a tear of his own since re-joining the Dodgers lineup.
The shortstop is batting .300 in 10 games with three doubles and a pair of home runs. He’s cleared this line in seven of those contests.
Betts runs impressive .337/.404/.490 splits against lefties and I expect him to get after Alexander tonight.
Gore over 5.5 strikeouts (+118): I’m sure most bettors will be lining up to back Chris Sale’s strikeout total in this lefty-vs-lefty matchup instead of Gore. But I think that’s the wrong arm to look at.
Sale might be shoving but Washington has the lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since the all-star break (16.7%). Atlanta, meanwhile, has the second-highest rate in the same span (31.3%).
Gore has an extensive history against this Braves lineup with a 27.3% K rate in 77 plate appearances.
He’s played them twice this year and racked up seven and 10 punchouts in those outings. Gore has also cleared this line in two of his last three starts.
Picks made at 1:28 p.m. ET on 08/23/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.