I’m backing one elite arm and fading another in today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Paul Skenes is slumping but is poised to have a monster outing against the lowly Cincinnati Reds. Elsewhere, I think Yainer Diaz and the Houston Astros will give Corbin Burnes all he can handle.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 22.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Skenes over 7.5 strikeouts (-113)
For the first time in a long time, Skenes isn’t favoured to win the NL Rookie of the Year.
That honour now belongs to San Diego’s Jackson Merrill who is in the midst of a fantastic season. I think Merrill’s reign will be short-lived, though, after Skenes carves through the Reds tonight.
Pittsburgh’s ace might be slumping but Cincinnati is a dream matchup for most pitchers.
The Reds have the sixth-highest K rate (24.7%) and 10th-highest whiff rate (26.6%) in MLB. They’ve particularly struggled to hit righties lately, posting the fourth-highest K rate (26.9%) vs. RHP in the last 14 days.
Now let’s dig into Skenes’ “slump.”
He’s only cleared this line in one of his last four starts while posting a 3.47 ERA and a 9.35 K/9. Those are still some pretty darn good numbers.
Skenes went over this mark in eight of nine games prior and has the stuff to put up monster numbers on any given night.
Key stat: Skenes’ 31.8% K rate ranks in Baseball Savant’s 93rd percentile.
Quick picks
Burnes under 18.5 outs (-143): Speaking of season-long awards, Burnes was neck-and-neck with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race at one point.
But that ship has sailed after a tough run of form.
Burnes has a 9.00 ERA in August, falling under this line in all three starts. The righty had a much more respectable July but still went under this mark in three of five games while posting a 3.09 ERA.
And unlike Skenes, Burnes won’t have a cupcake opponent tonight.
The Baltimore Orioles take on the red-hot Houston Astros, who have won 11 of their past 14 games while averaging 4.78 runs per game.
Burnes has a 13.3% K rate and a .659 opponent SLG against the Astros in 45 combined plate appearances.
Diaz over 1.5 bases (+123): Diaz is one Astro that should feast against Burnes.
The catcher is red hot with five consecutive multi-hit games. In that stretch, he’s gone yard three times with just two strikeouts.
The 25-year-old has an exceptional skill to put the bat on the ball. He has a 97th percentile xBA (.307) and 84th percentile K rate (15.5%).
Diaz also has a fourth-percentile walk rate (4.0%), meaning the vast majority of his at-bats end on a ball in play.
Picks made at 1:23 p.m. ET on 08/22/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.