I’m turning to the mound for each of today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Seth Lugo is in a tough stretch but is primed to bounce back against a team he’s dominated before. Elsewhere, I’m backing Michael King and fading Tanner Houck.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 19.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Lugo over 18.5 outs (+123)
Taking the over on an 18.5 outs prop is always risky, especially when the pitcher in question has given up 18 runs in his last four starts.
But there are a few reasons Lugo has my attention tonight.
He’s a contact pitcher with a 37th-percentile K rate and an 81st-percentile walk rate, per Baseball Savant. That keeps his pitch count low and lets him eat up innings. Case in point, Lugo logged 6.1 IP (clearing this total) while giving up six earned runs to the Chicago Cubs on July 27.
And I won’t put too much stock into his last two starts against the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins.
Those teams both rank in the top 10 for wRC+, batting average, and runs per game and are capable of giving any pitcher a hard time.
Tonight, Lugo gets to go up against the Los Angeles Angels, who are the exact opposite.
L.A. is in the bottom 10 of each aforementioned stat and Lugo torched them earlier this season. He gave up one earned run over 8.0 IP (i.e., 24 outs) while striking out 12.
Lugo has had a great season on the whole, posting a 3.04 ERA (eighth in MLB). Bet on him to bounce back tonight.
Key stat: Lugo is 12-13 against this line but he has thrown at least 6.0 IP (18.0 outs) in 20 of 25 games.
Quick picks
King over 17.5 outs (-159): Yes, this is a lot of juice for a single wager but I think it’s worth the squeeze.
King is living up to the billing as the main piece going back to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade. The righty had a tough start with his new club but has been on an absolute tear over his last seven starts.
In that span, he’s posted a 1.94 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 41.2 IP. He’s gone 5-2 against this line in those outings.
The Twins, as mentioned before, are a tough out. But King has made minced meat of the Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Guardians lately.
Houck under 4.5 strikeouts (-103): This seems like a smash fade spot against Houck, who has only cleared this line once in his last six games.
The righty will go up against the Houston Astros, who he dominated last week.
Houck gave up just four hits and one earned run over 6.0 IP. I’m sure the Red Sox loved that start but he only struck out one batter while going 13-of-25 on first pitch strikes.
Houston has the third-lowest K rate (19.1%) in MLB and has only struck out three times in 50 combined at-bats versus Houck (6.0% K rate)
Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 08/19/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.