Two hitters and a pitcher make their way into today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Ryan Pepiot has been dealing for the Tampa Bay Rays and I expect him to go deep against the Oakland Athletics. Elsewhere, Trea Turner and Luis Garcia Jr. are worth backing at the plate in plus matchups.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 21.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Pepiot over 16.5 outs (-107)
Pepiot isn’t a household name but he’s quietly putting together a solid season.
The third-year righty owns a 3.69 ERA to pair with a stellar 1.08 WHIP across 18 starts. In June, he gave up just three combined earned runs to the Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees, and Cleveland Guardians before landing on the injured list with a knee infection.
Pepiot cleared this line twice while posting a 1.72 ERA in those starts.
Tampa Bay activated him from the IL last week and he picked up where he left off, throwing 5.1 innings of scoreless ball against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
He was one out short of clearing this total in that game but only threw 80 pitches. I expect him to have a longer leash tonight against a worse opponent.
The Athletics rank 25th in runs per game (4.01), 26th in team batting average (.231) and 27th in K rate (24.8%). Pepiot played Oakland earlier this season and gave up two runs in 5.2 IP.
Key stat: Pepiot has cleared this line in 10 of 18 starts.
Quick picks
Turner to score (-103): This is a great spot to back Turner, who is heating up after a post-all-star-game slump.
Philadelphia’s shortstop has cashed this bet in four of his last five games and is slashing .476/.500/.762 in that span. He went 0-for-4 last night but has a great opportunity to bounce back against Max Fried.
Atlanta’s lefty has a 7.90 ERA across three starts in August and has gotten rocked by Philadelphia’s lineup in the past.
The Phillies are batting .333 against Fried in a massive sample size (251 plate appearances). Turner is 17-for-43 against the southpaw with a .447 OBP.
Garcia Jr. over 1.5 bases (+128): Garcia has been absolutely on fire in August, batting .393 and raising his season-long average 18 points to .294.
He has three multi-hit games in his last four outings and gets to go up against Tanner Gordon, a rookie right-hander who’s gotten rocked through six starts.
Gordon owns a 7.00 ERA and has a propensity to give up hard contact.
Garcia’s OPS versus righties (.831) is more than 200 points higher than against lefties (.629). And his OPS at home (.968) is more than 300 points higher than on the road (.625).
Picks made at 1:19 p.m. ET on 08/21/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.