Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.
The Edmonton Oilers host the Toronto Maple Leafs in a must-see Hockey Night in Canada showdown.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence is slumping, but two big names should be back in the lineup on Saturday. Look for Matthew Knies to produce in his return and Leon Draisaitl to continue firing pucks on net.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Oilers props for Feb. 1.
The only knock on Knies so far in his career is that he’s a tad injury-prone.
The talented young winger missed the last two games with a shoulder injury but is expected to play tonight, per Sportsnet’s Luke Fox.
And when he’s in the lineup, he’s been rolling.
Knies has 18 goals and 31 points in 47 games and is already just four points off his career high. Fox projects Knies will slot back into the Maple Leafs’ top line alongside Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews, which is great to see.
The 22-year-old had four points in his last three games before the injury and has shown up in some big spots so far.
On Jan. 4 he scored a hat-trick and added two assists against the Boston Bruins on Hockey Night. I expect another big performance against the Oilers.
Toronto and Edmonton tend to produce barn burners when they match up, so asking a first-liner to register a point seems very reasonable.
Key stat: Toronto and Edmonton have averaged 8.0 goals across their last five meetings.
Quick picks
Draisaitl over 2.5 shots (-157): This is a lot of juice to pay but I believe it’s worth it. Draisaitl has been unbelievable this year, leading the league in goals (37) and sitting second in points (76).
You can’t score without shooting the puck, and I expect Draisaitl to let it fly tonight.
The German winger has been cashing this wager with ease lately, going over 2.5 shots in 11 of 14 games in January.
That 78.5% hit rate far exceeds the 61.09% implied probability of this wager.
Draisaitl is coming off a 10-shot game against the Detroit Red Wings and has cleared this mark in six of his last seven games against Toronto.
I’ve chosen the star player for the Colorado Avalanche as my top NHL prop bet for Friday.
The pregame narrative: Nathan MacKinnon is eyeing a second-straight Hart Trophy and he gets a solid opportunity to rack up points against the St. Louis Blues.
The reigning MVP, coming off a career-best 140-point season, is pacing the league in scoring again with 79 points in 52 games.
I was looking at MacKinnon to score at plus money, but he’s only cashed that bet 16 times (30.7%) this year. With a league-best 59 assists, I think this is a much stronger play.
He has multiple points in 23 games, including four of his last 10. MacKinnon falls under this number more often than not but gets a struggling St. Louis Blues team.
The Blues have lost four of their last five games while giving up 3.8 goals per night.
It’s unclear whether Jordan Binnington or Joel Hofer will start in goal for St. Louis, but neither has been great:
Binnington: 2.89 GAA (36th), .897 SV% (t-36th)
Hofer: 2.75 GAA (28th), .906 SV% (23rd)
The Blues also have the fourth-worst penalty kill in hockey (71.8%). This seems like a perfect spot for Colorado’s main man to step up.
Key stat: MacKinnon has 44 points in 26 home games.
I’ve got two prop bets from Friday’s four-game NHL slate.
The pregame narrative: Nathan MacKinnon is eyeing a second-straight Hart Trophy and has a great matchup to record multiple points. Elsewhere, Tage Thompson has an attainable shot total with juicy odds.
The reigning MVP, coming off a career-best 140-point season, is pacing the league in scoring again with 79 points in 52 games.
I was looking at MacKinnon to score at plus money, but he’s only cashed that bet 16 times (30.7%) this year. With a league-best 59 assists, I think this is a much stronger play.
He has multiple points in 23 games, including four of his last 10. MacKinnon falls under this number more often than not but gets a struggling St. Louis Blues team.
The Blues have lost four of their last five games while giving up 3.8 goals per night.
It’s unclear whether Jordan Binnington or Joel Hofer will start in goal for St. Louis, but neither has been great:
Binnington: 2.89 GAA (36th), .897 SV% (t-36th)
Hofer: 2.75 GAA (28th), .906 SV% (23rd)
The Blues also have the fourth-worst penalty kill in hockey (71.8%). This seems like a perfect spot for Colorado’s main man to step up.
Key stat: MacKinnon has 44 points in 26 home games.
Quick picks
Thompson over 3.5 shots (+150): Thompson is on a roll, and some are beginning to question why he was left off Team USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
The 6-foot-6 bulldozer has six goals in his last five games and has been firing the puck at will in January.
Thompson has 50 shots in January (4.16 per game) and has five-plus shots in three of his last four outings.
Truthfully, I’m a little confused to see him priced this generously.
The Buffalo Sabres head to Nashville to take on a Predators squad allowing the 11th-most shots per game (29.1).
A future Hall of Famer and an all-star snub headline Friday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Kevin Durant should have no trouble filling the basket against his former team, the Golden State Warriors. Elsewhere, I like Norman Powell to produce in Charlotte.
Best bet: Durant over 25.5 points (-108): Father Time is undefeated but Durant is giving him the business right now.
The 36-year-old averages 27.3 points per game (fifth-most in the NBA) with a 29.7% usage rate. The latter ranks 18th, ahead of players like Jokic, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brunson.
He’s playing a ton. He’s shooting a ton. And he’s making a ton — that’s what any overs bettor wants to see.
And now Durant gets to go up against a Golden State Warriors team with the second-worst mid-range defence in the league (46.7 FG% allowed), according to Cleaning the Glass.
Key stat: KD takes 57% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 100th percentile of all NBA players.
Quick pick
Powell over 21.5 points (-125): Powell should be playing in this year’s all-star game.
The veteran guard is averaging a career-best 24.0 PPG with 49.4/43.5/84.6 shooting splits. He’s the main reason the Los Angeles Clippers remained competitive with Kawhi Leonard sidelined and has kept scoring since the Klaw returned.
Powell has scored at least 20 points in eight of nine games with Leonard, clearing this mark five times.
He’s still attempting 16.3 shots per game with Leonard in the lineup (17.0 without), which gives us a solid floor to work with.
The Charlotte Hornets have done well to limit shooting guards this year but Powell is playing with a chip on his shoulder and I expect another strong night.
He’s cleared this mark in 10 of his last 11 games.
Two future Hall of Famers and an all-star snub headline Friday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic is on a roll and should clear a modest assist total against the Philadelphia 76ers. Elsewhere, I like Kevin Durant to fill the basket against his old team and Norman Powell to produce.
I don’t typically like to pay this much juice but feel this line will only get less profitable as the day goes on.
Jokic is at the peak of his powers and is one of the league’s best facilitators:
10.1 APG (second-most in NBA)
9+ assists in 12/13 games this month
10+ assists in 10/13 games this month
His floor as a passer is sky-high and he draws a solid matchup against Philadelphia. The 76ers allow the eighth-most assists per game (27.2) and Jokic logged 10 helpers against them back on Jan. 21.
He only played 30 minutes and the Denver Nuggets won that game 144-109, so there is a blowout possibility this evening.
But that was in Denver and this is in Philadelphia, so I’m hoping the Sixers (9.5-point underdogs) can keep this somewhat close.
And either way, this line is within reach even with limited minutes.
Key stat: Jokic has 10-plus assists in seven of his last eight games.
Quick picks
Powell over 22.5 points (-105): Powell should be playing in this year’s all-star game.
The veteran guard is averaging a career-best 24.0 PPG with 49.4/43.5/84.6 shooting splits. He’s the main reason the Los Angeles Clippers remained competitive with Kawhi Leonard sidelined and has kept scoring since the Klaw returned.
Powell has scored at least 20 points in eight of nine games with Leonard, clearing this mark five times.
He’s still attempting 16.3 shots per game with Leonard in the lineup (17.0 without), which gives us a solid floor to work with.
The Charlotte Hornets have done well to limit shooting guards this year but Powell is playing with a chip on his shoulder and I expect another strong night.
He’s cleared this mark in four of his last five games.
Durant over 26.5 points (-125): Father Time is undefeated but Durant is giving him the business right now.
The 36-year-old averages 27.3 points per game (fifth-most in the NBA) with a 29.7% usage rate. The latter ranks 18th, ahead of players like Jokic, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brunson.
He’s playing a ton. He’s shooting a ton. And he’s making a ton — that’s what any overs bettor wants to see.
And now Durant gets to go up against a Golden State Warriors team with the second-worst mid-range defence in the league (46.7 FG% allowed), according to Cleaning the Glass.
KD takes 57% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 100th percentile of all NBA players.
Scottie Scheffler is the best golfer on the planet today. And it’s not even close.
The 28-year-old is coming off an epic, nine-victory 2024 season that included his second Masters and Players titles, four signature event wins, the FedEx Cup and an Olympic gold medal.
Scheffler’s 2024 was so good it’s now on any short-list of the greatest single seasons in golf history by anyone not named Woods, Nicklaus, Hogan or Jones.
As great as his year was, a resume with only two majors isn’t enough for consideration among the game’s all-time greats.
Scheffler — who is making his first start of the season this week at Pebble Beach — might not replicate last year’s totals, but I believe 2025 will be the year he cements his legacy.
Scottie Scheffler’s 2024 in historical context
The phrase “generational talent” gets thrown around too often, but Scheffler’s headshot (no, not the one you’re thinking of) would look good next to it in a dictionary.
Nine wins in 21 starts is a simple way to measure Scheffler’s 2024 season. But as incredible as that stat is, it still doesn’t scratch the surface of how much better he was than his peers.
True strokes gained is an all-encompassing stat, courtesy of DataGolf, which averages the number of strokes you beat the field by in a given round (adjusted for the strength of that field).
Check out the list of Data Golf’s 10 Best Seasons since 1983. Not surprisingly, Tiger Woods’ name litters the board, but there’s Scheffler at No. 8.
You might recall Vijay Singh’s legendary 2004 season when he won eight PGA Tour events including the PGA Championship. On paper, that might seem like a good comp for Scheffler’s 2024 season.
Well, it’s not.
Singh posted +2.57 true strokes gained in ’04, meaning Scheffler was over half a stroke better than Vijay every time he tee’d it up.
Coincidentally, that’s the same true strokes gained gap between Scheffler and Xander Schauffele last season.
In addition to his nine wins, Scheffler posted nine top 10s, including two runner-ups. He didn’t miss a cut and had the lowest scoring average (68.01) in the modern era.
With that said, you could argue one major wasn’t enough.
Majors or bust
At this point in Scheffler’s career — world No. 1 with a pair of majors to his name — history will judge him on majors and majors alone.
Don’t believe me? Just ask Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth.
McIlroy has four majors to his name and dozens of wins worldwide, but amid a decade-long dry spell in which he has built up so much scar tissue, one has to wonder if he’ll ever reach the mountaintop again and re-shape his late career narrative.
As for Spieth — the former World No. 1 and close friend of Scheffler — rattled off three majors before his 24th birthday and seemed destined for all-time greatness. But in the years following his 2017 Open Championship, the 31-year-old has just four top-three finishes in 29 major starts.
Then there’s Brooks Koepka, who has been vocal about his career goals. Winning PGA (and now LIV) events doesn’t matter to him in the slightest with only four weeks circled on his calendar. With five majors, he’s been the most successful champion of this generation.
You never know when a major window could slam shut, even for players as great as McIlroy and Spieth. And it’s why Scheffler has to scoop up as many of them as possible during this epic run of form.
Scheffler is currently listed at -120 to win one major in 2025. Consider that for a moment. The 54.55% implied probability indicates he’s more likely than not to take home at least one of golf’s greatest prizes.
As crazy as it sounds, Scheffler left some hardware on the table last year.
He entered the PGA Championship in May as the overwhelming favourite at +300. But despite a solid T8 finish at Valhalla, he never looked quite right following his infamous arrest on the eve of the tournament. Following a disastrous T41 at the U.S. Open in June, Scheffler was in the mix during the final round of the Open Championship in July before fading to a T7.
The floor of expectation for Schefller in 2025 is one major. But I think he’ll win two (+500), starting at The Masters.
The secret to Scottie Scheffler’s success
A third green jacket in April would leave Scheffler behind only Arnold Palmer (four), Tiger Woods (five) and Jack Nicklaus (six) for the most all-time. The stats suggest it’s a strong possibility, if not, a likelihood.
Since DataGolf began tracking strokes gained at The Masters in 1983, Scheffller owns the best average strokes gained (+3.25) of any player with more than one appearance.
Augusta National is notoriously a second-shot course and Scheffler is the best second-shot player in the world, leading all golfers in strokes gained: approach (+1.59) over the past 12 months. But perhaps more importantly, he’s demonstrated an ability to manage pressure exceptionally well.
Bobby Jones once said: “Golf is a game played on a five-inch course — the distance between your ears.”
We’ve seen how Masters pressure can eat even great players alive, but it doesn’t seem to penetrate Scheffler.
Not to play armchair psychologist, but Scheffler’s mind and attitude might be as valuable as his generational ball-striking.
So after The Masters, where might a second 2025 major come from?
Scheffler’s game travels everywhere. He’s won twice at TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National, two courses that couldn’t be more different in style. You could make good arguments for him at any of the other three major venues this year: Quail Hollow (PGA Championship), Oakmont (U.S. Open) or Royal Portrush (Open Championship).
Back Scottie Scheffler at the U.S. Open
Scheffler’s worst major finish in his past 10 starts was his T41 at last year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst. But that finish appears to be an outlier.
In his three U.S. Open starts before last year Scheffler finished third, second, and seventh, finishing one shot out of a playoff in 2022.
Golfers will make bogeys at the U.S. Open — that’s just a fact. Avoiding doubles and triples and bouncing back is key in that event. Scheffler happens to be terrific at both:
He bogeyed just 9.85% of holes last season, the second-lowest rate on the PGA Tour.
Scheffler owned a 31.75% bounce-back percentage (following up a bogey or worse with a birdie), also the second-best rate on the Tour.
That’s how you play golf within the ‘five-inch course.’
Without getting too into the weeds, Oakmont should set up well for Scheffler with its premium on driving accuracy and massive greens with severe run-offs requiring precision iron play.
Should he miss a green Scheffler can turn to his strong short game. A year ago he finished 17th in strokes gained: around-the-greens (+0.316) and fifth in scrambling (66.18%).
The Scheffler-Slam
Now how about this for a legacy: The Scheffler Slam.
Is it possible?
No player has ever won four majors in the modern era (Masters, U.S. Open, PGA Championship, Open Championship). Tiger Woods is the only player to hold all four majors at once after winning the final three majors of 2000 and then the 2001 Masters.
Not surprisingly, I don’t like these odds. Taking a flier on Scheffler to win three majors is far more enticing, even though that has only been accomplished twice in the modern era (Woods in 2000 and Ben Hogan in 1953).
Quail Hollow, where the PGA Championship will take place in May, is a bomb and gauge course, which should fit Scheffler’s eye fine, despite having never played there. As for the Open Championship, in five career starts, he has two Top 10 finishes (T8 2021, T7 2024). He didn’t play in the event in 2019 when it was last held at this year’s venue, Royal Portrush.
That’s noteworthy considering Scheffler has never won in his first start at any venue.
But expect that trend to end in a big way in 2025. If Scheffler can knock off a pair of majors in 2025 — as I expect him to — it would double his career count from two to four and catapult him on the all-time list from T41 to T21.
It would also place Scheffler just one major behind the likes of Koepka and Seve Ballesteros, while removing all doubt that we’re witnessing one of the game’s all-time greats.
The Portland Trail Blazers host the Orlando Magic for Thursday’s NBA nightcap.
The pregame narrative: Orlando is struggling and Portland is surging. This +270 SGP features the Trail Blazers to cover an alternate spread at home, alongside prop bets on Deni Avdija and Franz Wagner.
Check out my Magic vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 30.
Parlay: Trail Blazers +10.5 + Avdija over 16.5 points + Wagner over 1.5 threes (+280)
Trail Blazers +10.5(-335): Portland has won five of its last six games — including a 101-79 drumming of the Magic in Orlando on Jan. 23 — so banking 10.5 points seems safe.
The Blazers have been a solid ATS this season with a 12-8-0 record as a home underdog. In those games, they own a -6.6 average margin of victory, which is comfortably inside this number.
Orlando, meanwhile, has hit the ditch even with its stars back in the lineup.
The Magic have lost eight of their last 10 and have failed to win by 10-plus points in 27 straight games. They also are 9-15-0 ATS on the road.
Other SGP legs
Avdija over 16.5 points (-132): Maybe Avdija is having a moment, or maybe it’s the start of something greater — either way, the fifth-year forward is on a tear.
Check out his numbers since being re-inserted into the starting lineup on Dec. 28:
18.9 PPG
50.5 FG%
17+ points in 9/14 games
The 2020 No. 9 overall pick never got rolling with the Washington Wizards but has been an impact player in his first year with the Blazers.
Avdija is coming off two huge games, scoring 28 and 30 points, respectively, against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks.
I’ll back him to stay hot.
Wagner over 1.5 threes (-139): I spoke about this in today’s top NBA prop bets and will double-dip in this SGP.
Wagner makes his fourth start since returning from an oblique injury and doesn’t appear to be on a minutes restriction.
He’s played 30 and 40 minutes in his last two games and has cleared this line twice:
Jan. 27 vs. Miami: 2-for-10 from deep
Jan. 25 vs. Detroit: 4-for-8 from deep
I love this play from a volume standpoint alone but it’s still nice to know Portland has the sixth-worst 3-point defence (37.2%) in the NBA.
I’ve got three prop bets for Thursday’s NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: Austin Reaves gets an A-plus matchup against the Washington Wizards and is a good bet to stuff the stat sheet. Elsewhere, back Evan Mobley to score and Franz Wagner to hit a pair of triples.
Best bet: Reaves over 31.5 points/rebounds/assists (-122)
Reaves is in a bit of a lull right now but gets a slump-buster with Washington.
The Wizards are a truly dreadful team that has been dominated by shooting guards this season. Here is what they allow to the position on a per-game basis, according to Betting Pros:
23.54 points (4th-most)
6.67 rebounds (6th-most)
5.62 assists (3rd-most)
Washington also ranks last in defensive rating and 26th in opponent field goal percentage (47.7%).
Reaves has fallen under this number in five of his last six games but still shot a respectable 47.1% from the field in that span. On the whole, he’s been very productive since returning from injury on Dec. 13.
19.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 7.3 APG
30+ PRA in 11/21 games
With Anthony Davis sidelined, I expect Reaves to be the No. 2 option on a Los Angeles Lakers team needing wins.
Key stat: Reaves has cleared this mark in nine of his last 19 games.
Quick picks
Mobley over 17.5 points (-112): This seems like a light line for Mobley.
The fourth-year power forward is enjoying the best scoring season of his career (18.2 PPG) and draws a solid matchup against the Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta has the 19th-ranked mid-range defence, according to Cleaning the Glass, and Mobley takes plenty of shots from that area of the court.
The Hawks also play at the second-fastest pace, which is a boon for betting overs.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are on a back-to-back but that doesn’t phase me.
Mobley played 32 minutes in his last back-to-back (Jan. 9 vs. Toronto) and scored 21 points on 63.6% shooting. He’s cleared this mark in three straight games with no rest.
Wagner over 1.5 threes (-139): Wagner is playing in his fourth game since suffering an oblique injury in early December, and the early results are encouraging.
He was limited to just 24 minutes in his return but played 30 and 40 minutes after that, clearing this line in both games while averaging nine 3-point attempts.
That type of volume alone makes this enticing.
Now consider he’s playing the Portland Trail Blazers, who have the sixth-worst 3-point defence (37.2%) in the NBA.
The PGA Tour heads to one of its most iconic venues for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
The latest: Scottie Scheffler headlines an 80-man field, which will play one round at Pebble Beach and one round at Spyglass Hill before returning to the former for the weekend. I’ve got bets on three players, including Collin Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood.
Check out our Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on Jan. 30.
Best bet: Morikawa to win (+1,400) & top-10 finish (+150)
This course is tailor-made for Morikawa’s game.
Pebble Beach has the smallest greens on the PGA Tour, placing a heavy emphasis on iron play. It also has some of the largest penalties for missing the fairway, meaning off-the-tee accuracy is paramount.
Morikawa is one of the best iron players in the world. He has the best all-time strokes gained: approach (+0.95) of anyone in the field, per Data Golf.
He’s also second in driving accuracy (+8.7%) using the same metric, behind only Aaron Rai.
He’s only played this event once before — last year – and finished T14.
And while Morikawa hasn’t won an event since Oct. 2023, he’s come damn close. In his first start of the year, he shot 32-under par at the Sentry, finishing two shots behind Hideki Matsuyama.
The levee is bound to break sooner or later.
Key stat: Morikawa has three runners-up and 10 top 10s in his last 25 starts.
Quick picks
Fleetwood to win (+2,800) & top-20 finish (+100): Fleetwood has never won on the PGA Tour … but that has to change at some point, right?
The Englishman has been on a tear since the Olympics (where he won a silver medal):
Nine starts, finishing no worse than T22
Four top fives
Seven top 20s
He’s a remarkably consistent iron player and is accurate off the tee. Fleetwood has only missed two cuts in his last 25 starts, finishing inside the top 20 a total of 15 times.
Straka to win (+5,500) top-30 finish (+100): This is incredible value for a player coming off a win.
Straka shot 25-under to win the American Express two weeks ago, edging out Justin Thomas by two. And it’s not like that was a fluke.
The Austrian was a mainstay atop the leaderboard last year, with top-five finishes at the Memorial Tournament and RBC Heritage. He also finished T16 at the Masters and was T15 at the Sentry to begin this season.
Straka is an elite iron player, picking up over a stroke on approach in each of his last six starts and is also very accurate with the driver.
Let’s take a look at some Super Bowl long shot picks.
The pregame narrative: Saquon Barkley is the alpha dog on Philadelphia’s offence, but A.J. Brown has value to lead the game in scrimmage yards. I’m also betting on there to be an “Octopus” at +1,200.
Best bet: Brown to lead the game in scrimmage yards (+700)
Maybe the self-help book worked, or maybe Brown’s knee is finally feeling healthy. Either way, Philly’s WR1 balled out in the NFC championship game.
8 targets
6 catches
96 yards
1 touchdown
Brown was still 24 scrimmage yards behind Barkley, who rushed for 118 and added four through the air. Barkley is the obvious candidate to lead the game, and his -250 odds reflect that.
Still, I think this is worth a sprinkle.
Brown has put up 4,031 receiving yards across three seasons with the Eagles, netting out to an average of 85.7 per game.
He has a high floor as a receiver and should feel 100% with an extra week of rest.
Steve Spagnuolo’s defence is going to throw the house at slowing Philadelphia’s ground game. Will it work? We’ll have to see. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Kellen Moore has to adjust — especially if the Chiefs take an early lead — and that should start with feeding No. 11.
Brown had 96 yards against KC in the Super Bowl two years ago.
Key stat: According to RBSDM.com, Kansas City’s defence was 11th in EPA per rush and 17th in EPA per dropback.
Quick picks
There to be an Octopus — yes (+1,200): If you’re unfamiliar with an “Octopus,” it is when a player scores a touchdown and follows it up by converting the 2-point conversion.
I’m backing Jalen Hurts to find the end zone as my best Super Bowl bet. You can read about why I like that pick here.
The Tush Push has become unstoppable, and Hurts scored a hat trick of touchdowns last week. If Philadelphia were to go for two after a TD, there’s a pretty good chance Philly’s QB will be calling his own number.
Obviously, this doesn’t happen often, hence the +1,200 odds.
But according to Pro Football Reference, Hurts has accomplished this feat twice. And one of those times was against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57.
This year, there have been nine instances of an Octopus in the NFL and Saquon Barkley had one of them.
