Staff Writer

Maple Leafs vs. Flames props Feb. 4: Back Matthews and Huberdeau to clear their shot totals

The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to roll through the prairies when they take on the Calgary Flames on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence looked sharp in Saturday’s 4-3 win over the Edmonton Oilers but it might be missing Mitch Marner, who didn’t practice on Monday. Even in his absence, I expect Auston Matthews to be an active shooter. The same goes for Calgary’s Jonathan Huberdeau.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Flames props for Feb. 4.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames props

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Matthews over 3.5 shots (-125)

It’s looking like Matthews will be without his top playmaker on Tuesday, but I don’t think that matters too much.

He’s projected to slot alongside Matthews Knies, an elite puck retriever, and Max Domi, whose greatest strength is passing.

Marner is on a different level than both, but Matthews has done well in his absence. Check out his stats in the last 10 games without No. 16:

4+ shots in 9/10 games
5+ shots in 7/10 games
7+ shots in 4/10 games

The Leafs need their captain to supply offence and I expect him to be trigger-happy tonight. The quality of the chances might not be as good without Marner, but the chances will still be there.

Calgary is tied for allowing the ninth-most shots per game (29.13), according to Stat Muse.

Key stat: Matthews has 5+ shots in four of his last five games.

Quick picks

Huberdeau over 1.5 shots (-150): I made this bet on Saturday when the Flames played the Seattle Kraken and it cashed.

Huberdeau isn’t the scorer he used to be with the Florida Panthers, but he still paces the Flames with 37 points through 52 games.

The veteran centre is expected to bring offence, and this is a very modest total for him to reach.

He’s averaging 1.82 shots per game this year and has cleared this mark in eight of his last nine games.

As mentioned, Toronto is a solid matchup for this wager. The Leafs are coming off a poor defensive outing on Saturday when they gave up a whopping 48 shots to the Oilers.

Picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 02/04/2025.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames props Feb. 4: Back Matthews and Huberdeau to clear their shot totals

The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to roll through the prairies when they take on the Calgary Flames on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence looked sharp in Saturday’s 4-3 win over the Edmonton Oilers but it might be missing Mitch Marner, who didn’t practice on Monday. Even in his absence, I expect Auston Matthews to be an active shooter. The same goes for Calgary’s Jonathan Huberdeau.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Flames props for Feb. 4.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames props

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Embed: #108496

Best bet: Matthews over 3.5 shots (-114)

It’s looking like Matthews will be without his top playmaker on Tuesday, but I don’t think that matters too much.

He’s projected to slot alongside Matthews Knies, an elite puck retriever, and Max Domi, whose greatest strength is passing.

Marner is on a different level than both, but Matthews has done well in his absence. Check out his stats in the last 10 games without No. 16:

4+ shots in 9/10 games
5+ shots in 7/10 games
7+ shots in 4/10 games

The Leafs need their captain to supply offence and I expect him to be trigger-happy tonight. The quality of the chances might not be as good without Marner, but the chances will still be there.

Calgary is tied for allowing the ninth-most shots per game (29.13), according to Stat Muse.

Key stat: Matthews has 5+ shots in four of his last five games.

Quick picks

Huberdeau over 1.5 shots (-125): I made this bet on Saturday when the Flames played the Seattle Kraken and it cashed.

Huberdeau isn’t the scorer he used to be with the Florida Panthers, but he still paces the Flames with 37 points through 52 games.

The veteran centre is expected to bring offence, and this is a very modest total for him to reach.

He’s averaging 1.82 shots per game this year and has cleared this mark in eight of his last nine games.

As mentioned, Toronto is a solid matchup for this wager. The Leafs are coming off a poor defensive outing on Saturday when they gave up a whopping 48 shots to the Oilers.

Picks made at 11:39 a.m. ET on 02/04/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

Celtics vs. Cavaliers picks Feb. 4: Back Cleveland to win, Mobley to have a big night

The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Boston Celtics in an Eastern Conference heavyweight showdown.

The pregame narrative: Boston got the best of Cleveland in the playoffs last year but the latter has been the NBA’s pacecar through the end of January. Bet on the Cavs to win and Evan Mobley to stuff the stat sheet on Tuesday.

Check out my Celtics vs. Cavaliers picks for Feb. 4.

Celtics vs. Cavaliers picks

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Embed: #108458

Best bet: Cavaliers moneyline (-124)

Boston’s title run last year was a no-doubter.

The Celtics won 64 regular-season games — 14 more than any other Eastern Conference team — en route to a stress-free championship.

But things haven’t gone as smoothly this season, even with all of the same peices in place. The Celtics are 35-15 and have been a disasterous team to back against the spread:

Boston is 19-30-1 ATS. As underdogs, the Celtics are 0-2 ATS and SU, losing those games by an average of 8.5 points.
Cleveland, meanwhile, is a league-best 33-16-0 ATS and has already beaten Boston as a home favourite on Dec. 1 (115-111).

The Celtics are still a great team, but the championship hangover is palatable. They’re on a three-game win streak against bottom-feeders (Bulls, Pelicans, 76ers), and before that, they had lost five of 10 — including a blowout loss against the Raptors in Toronto.

Cleveland has put up 125-plus points in five of its last seven and will be rearing to make a statement agianst the team which bounced it from the playoffs last year.

Key stat: Cleveland is 24-3 at home this season with a +13.4 net rating (second-best in the NBA).

Quick picks

Mobley over 25.5 points and rebounds (-118): Mobley is having the best scoring season of his career and I expect him to be a force on Tuesday.

The power forward is posting career highs in the following categories:

Points per game (18.3)
3PT% (39.8)
FTA (4.0)

Adding a 3-point stroke and getting to the line has made Mobley a more dynamic scorer. He’s always been a solid rebounder, though, averaging at least 9.0 rebounds over the last three seasons.

Boston allows the eighth-most rebounds per game to power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Mobley is averaging 29.4 points and rebounds and has gone over this line in 27 of 43 starts (62.7%). That includes a 22-point, 11-rebound game against the Celtics in Boston on Nov. 19.

Picks made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 02/04/2025.

Magic vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions Feb. 3: Expect Banchero and Wagner to produce in a loss

The Golden State Warriors host a struggling Orlando Magic squad on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are back in the lineup but it hasn’t resulted in many wins. I’m taking Golden State to win but expect both of those players to produce in this +280 SGP.

Check out my Magic vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 3.

Magic vs. Warriors predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #108340

Parlay: Warriors moneyline | Banchero 20+ points | Wagner 2+ threes (+280)

Warriors moneyline (-148): Neither of these teams is great but I simply can’t justify backing Orlando right now.

The Magic have lost 10 of their last 12 games with the wins coming against the middling Detroit Pistons and the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers.

In that span, they’re averaging a league-worst 98.9 points per game.

Golden State, meanwhile, is 3-2 in its last five with an impressive win over the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Dubs are 14-13 at home, which again isn’t fantastic, but the Magic are an awful 9-17 on the road.

Golden State also went 2-0 against Orlando last year.

Other SGP legs

Banchero 20+ points (-335): I took the over on Banchero’s 23.5-point total in today’s best NBA prop bets. So naturally, I’m keen on backing him at a reduced number.

The third-year power forward has struggled since returning from an oblique tear on Jan. 10. But he’s been still reliable against this number:

Banchero is averaging 20.0 PPG in 11 games since returning, clearing this line seven times.

He’s no longer on a minutes restriction and is shooting the ball a ton, averaging 21.3 FGA over the last four games, which is what I want to see.

The Warriors is also a nice matchup for Banchero:

GSW owns the second-worst mid-range defence, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Banchero takes 41% of his shots from the mid-range, ranking in the 87th percentile for all NBA players.

Golden State also allows the fifth-most PPG to power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Wagner 2+ threes (-200): Wagner went 0-for-3 from deep in his first game back from injury. But he’s been letting it fly since then.

34 three-point attempts in last four games
3-1 against this line

Golden State ranks 16th in opponent 3-point percentage. That’s not awful, but it isn’t great, either.

If Wagner keeps shooting with volume, this should be a cinch.

Picks made at 10:29 a.m. on 02/03/25.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 3: Back Banchero, Brooks on Monday

I’ve got two prop bets for Monday’s action-packed NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Paolo Banchero is slumping but gets an A-plus matchup against the Golden State Warriors. I like him to score and am also backing Dillon Brooks from deep.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 3.

Best NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Banchero over 22.5 points (-130)

Banchero is fighting it right now but can you really blame him? The third-year forward tore his oblique weeks into the season and was asked to jump on a moving train after missing two months.

Still, I’m encouraged by a few things.

Banchero doesn’t appear to be on a minute restriction anymore. He’s played 40-plus minutes in two of his last three games after failing to crack 30 in his first five since returning.

And secondly, he’s taking a ton of shots, which is important, even if they’re not going in.

Banchero is averaging 21.3 FGA over his last four games.
He’s scored 20+ points twice in that span, clearing this line once.

I expect a rebound from Banchero coming off his worst game of the season (a 4-of-19 shooting performance against the Utah Jazz).

The Warriors own the second-worst mid-range defence, according to Cleaning the Glass. Banchero takes 41% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 87th percentile for all NBA players.

Key stat: Golden State allows the fifth-most PPG to power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Quick pick

Brooks over 2.5 threes (+125): Brooks is on a mini-heater and I want in.

The Canadian shooting guard has made 18 threes in his last four games, clearing this line three times. He’s shooting with volume and accuracy and should get more looks with Fred VanVleet sidelined tonight.

Brooks is also going up against a New York Knicks team that is dreadful at defending the perimeter.

The Knicks have the highest opponent 3-point percentage (37.9) and give up the 11th-most 3s per game (11.7).

Picks made at 9:19 a.m. ET on 02/03/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 3: Back Banchero, Wembanyama on Monday

Two budding superstars headline Monday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Paolo Banchero is slumping but gets an A-plus matchup against the Golden State Warriors. I like him to score and am also backing Victor Wembanyama to fill the basket and Dillon Brooks from deep.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 3.

Best NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #108320

Best bet: Banchero over 23.5 points (-121)

Banchero is fighting it right now but can you really blame him? The third-year forward tore his oblique weeks into the season and was asked to jump on a moving train after missing two months.

Still, I’m encouraged by a few things.

Banchero doesn’t appear to be on a minute restriction anymore. He’s played 40-plus minutes in two of his last three games after failing to crack 30 in his first five since returning.

And secondly, he’s taking a ton of shots, which is important, even if they’re not going in.

Banchero is averaging 21.3 FGA over his last four games.
He’s scored 20+ points twice in that span, clearing this line once.

I expect a rebound from Banchero coming off his worst game of the season (a 4-of-19 shooting performance against the Utah Jazz).

The Warriors own the second-worst mid-range defence, according to Cleaning the Glass. Banchero takes 41% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 87th percentile for all NBA players.

Key stat: Golden State allows the fifth-most PPG to power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 23.5 points (-121): The Victor Wembanyama show is about to get a lot more exciting with De’Aaron Fox in the mix.

San Antonio took a huge leap this year with Wemby breaking out as a scorer and now adds a bonafide stud PG in the mix.

But we’ll have plenty of time to talk about Fox — let’s look at what Wembanyama’s done over his last 20 games:

25.4 PPG
20+ points 16 times
24+ points 9 times

Wembayma is getting to 20 points on most nights which is a great baseline to work with. The Memphis Grizzlies are a strong defensive team but give up the seventh-most points to opposing centres.

Brooks over 2.5 threes (+123): Brooks is on a mini-heater and I want in.

The Canadian shooting guard has made 18 threes in his last four games, clearing this line three times. He’s shooting with volume and accuracy and should get more looks with Fred VanVleet sidelined tonight.

Brooks is also going up against a New York Knicks team that is dreadful at defending the perimeter.

The Knicks have the highest opponent 3-point percentage (37.9) and give up the 11th-most 3s per game (11.7).

Picks made at 9:19 a.m. ET on 02/03/2025.

Kings vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions Feb. 1: Back Sabonis and Gilgeous-Alexander at +270

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Sacramento Kings in a star-studded showdown on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento is running hot but not hot enough to justify backing against OKC on the road. This +270 SGP features the Thunder to win alongside props on Domantas Sabonis and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Check out my Kings vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 1.

Kings vs. Thunder predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #108244

Parlay: Thunder moneyline | Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points | Sabonis over 17.5 points (+340)

Thunder moneyline (-275): Backing the Thunder at home is typically a good move:

OKC is 19-3 straight up at Paycom Center and is 14-7-1 ATS at a home favourite.
The Thunder have the league’s best net rating (+13.0) and defensive rating (104.6) at home.

For the most part, Sacramento has been rolling under new head coach Doug Christie. But the Kings have lost three of their last four, giving up 132 points to the Denver Nuggets and 143 points to the New York Knicks.

I’m also worried about the locker room’s reaction to De’Aaron Fox being put on the trade market. Having a team leader indicate he would like a move is never a good thing.

The Thunder have won three straight games against the Kings and beat them 130-109 in Sacramento on Nov. 25.

SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points (-134): I was originally thinking of fading Gilgeous-Alexander on an alternate 36.5 point total because of how well the Kings defend point guards. But that’s no fun. And with the way he’s been playing, I doubt it would have been profitable.

The MVP frontrunner has cleared this mark in four of his last six. That includes a pair of 50 bombs against the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz, as well as a 40-point outing against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Golden State allows the second-fewest points per game to PGs, according to Fantasy Pros, so I’m not worried about Sacramento (which allows the eighth-fewest) being a tough matchup.

You could charge SGA with regicide based on how he’s handled the Kings. The Canadian has cleared this mark in nine straight games against Sacramento.

Sabonis over 17.5 points (-148): Sabonis’ rebound total is set at 15.5 tonight. That’s insane. It speaks to how poorly OKC is at cleaning the glass, even with Isaiah Hartenstein in the lineup.

That line is a little rich for my blood, so I’ll instead opt to back Sabonis on an alternate point total.

Grabbing offensive rebounds leads to putback opportunities, which leads to easy buckets.

Sabonis is leading the league in rebounds and is second in putback points. He’s scored 20-plus in 10 of his last 12 games and had 21 points against OKC on Nov. 25.

Picks made at 1:31 p.m. ET 02/01/2025

NHL prop picks Feb. 1: Back Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Huberdeau

Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Huberdeau are Saturday’s NHL prop targets.

The pregame narrative: Kucherov led the league in points last season in large part because of his prowess on the man advantage. I like him to record a power-play point tonight and am also backing Huberdeau to clear an attainable shot total.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Feb. 1.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Kucherov to score 1+ power-play points (+110)

Kucherov is the best power-play specialist in the NHL.

The Russian winger has over 100 points on the man advantage over the last three seasons and paces the NHL with 27 in 48 games so far this year.

He quarterbacks the man advantage for the Tampa Bay Lightning, dishing the puck to guys like Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point and Victor Hedman.

Daily Faceoff lists Kucherov as a participant on both units, as head coach John Cooper likes to keep his superstar out there for most of the two minutes.

It shouldn’t be a surprise, then, that Tampa ranks fifth in power-play percentage (26.9%).

The Lightning’s power play has a perfect matchup tonight against the New York Islanders.

New York has the second-worst penalty kill in the NHL (69.8%), and I expect Tampa to take advantage. It’s worth noting the Isles are riding a six-game winning streak while allowing seven total goals.

The squad doesn’t give up much at 5-on-5. so it will be crucial for the Lightning to capitalize on the man advantage.

Key stat: Kucherov logged a PP point in each of his last two games against New York.

Quick picks

Huberdeau over 1.5 shots (-163): Huberdeau’s production has cratered since he was traded from the Florida Panthers to the Calgary Flames in 2022.

He had 115 points in his final year with the Cats and has failed to surpass 55 with the Flames so far. But he does have 36 through 50 this year, including 19 goals.

Huberdeau is expected to bring offence for Calgary night in and night out, and that starts with firing pucks on net.

He’s averaging 1.82 shots per game this year and has cleared this mark in six of his last seven.

The Detroit Red Wings, tonight’s opponent, are a solid matchup for this wager. On a 60-minute basis, they give up the sixth-most shots (28.5) and eighth-most chances (59.6) at even strength, per Natural Stat Trick.

Picks made at 11:59 a.m. ET on 02/01/2025.

NHL prop picks Feb. 1: Back Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Huberdeau

Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Huberdeau are Saturday’s NHL prop targets.

The pregame narrative: Kucherov led the league in points last season in large part because of his prowess on the man advantage. I like him to record a power-play point tonight and am also backing Huberdeau to clear an attainable shot total.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Feb. 1.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Embed: #108226

Best bet: Kucherov to score 1+ power-play points (+100)