The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Sacramento Kings in a star-studded showdown on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: Sacramento is running hot but not hot enough to justify backing against OKC on the road. This +270 SGP features the Thunder to win alongside props on Domantas Sabonis and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Check out my Kings vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 1.
Kings vs. Thunder predictions
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Parlay: Thunder moneyline | Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points | Sabonis over 17.5 points (+340)
Thunder moneyline (-275): Backing the Thunder at home is typically a good move:
- OKC is 19-3 straight up at Paycom Center and is 14-7-1 ATS at a home favourite.
- The Thunder have the league’s best net rating (+13.0) and defensive rating (104.6) at home.
For the most part, Sacramento has been rolling under new head coach Doug Christie. But the Kings have lost three of their last four, giving up 132 points to the Denver Nuggets and 143 points to the New York Knicks.
I’m also worried about the locker room’s reaction to De’Aaron Fox being put on the trade market. Having a team leader indicate he would like a move is never a good thing.
The Thunder have won three straight games against the Kings and beat them 130-109 in Sacramento on Nov. 25.
SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points (-134): I was originally thinking of fading Gilgeous-Alexander on an alternate 36.5 point total because of how well the Kings defend point guards. But that’s no fun. And with the way he’s been playing, I doubt it would have been profitable.
The MVP frontrunner has cleared this mark in four of his last six. That includes a pair of 50 bombs against the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz, as well as a 40-point outing against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Golden State allows the second-fewest points per game to PGs, according to Fantasy Pros, so I’m not worried about Sacramento (which allows the eighth-fewest) being a tough matchup.
You could charge SGA with regicide based on how he’s handled the Kings. The Canadian has cleared this mark in nine straight games against Sacramento.
Sabonis over 17.5 points (-148): Sabonis’ rebound total is set at 15.5 tonight. That’s insane. It speaks to how poorly OKC is at cleaning the glass, even with Isaiah Hartenstein in the lineup.
That line is a little rich for my blood, so I’ll instead opt to back Sabonis on an alternate point total.
Grabbing offensive rebounds leads to putback opportunities, which leads to easy buckets.
Sabonis is leading the league in rebounds and is second in putback points. He’s scored 20-plus in 10 of his last 12 games and had 21 points against OKC on Nov. 25.
Picks made at 1:31 p.m. ET 02/01/2025
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.