Staff Writer

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 7: Back Tyler Herro, Joel Embiid on Friday

Tyler Herro and Joel Embiid headline Friday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Herro is the man on the Miami Heat these days, and I expect him to let it fly from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Embiid should pick up where he left off filling the basket and Chris Paul has value as a passer.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 7.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Herro 4+ threes (-121)

Embed: #108850

With Jimmy Butler out of the picture, it’s officially Herro’s team in South Beach.

That’s mostly semantics, though, because basketball fans know the sixth-year guard has been the guy all season. Herro is having his best year as a scorer, posting career-highs in several key metrics:

PPG: 23.9
3PA: 9.7
3PM: 3.8

He’s shooting with frequency and accuracy from beyond the arc and draws a solid matchup on Friday against the Brooklyn Nets.

Brooklyn allows the third-highest opponent 3-point percentage (37.6%) and is tied for allowing the 15th-most 3s per game (13.5).

Herro has cleared this mark in three of his last five games and attempted double-digit 3s in four of those contests.

He fell just shy of this line against the Nets on Jan. 25 when he went 3-for-6 from deep. I’m hoping to see a slight uptick in volume this evening.

Key stat: Herro has 4+ threes in 25 of 48 games (52.1%) this year.

Quick picks

Embiid over 28.5 points (-122): Maybe all the blockbuster trades spooked Embiid, or maybe he’s finally healthy. Either way, the big man is back in Philadelphia’s lineup — seemingly without a minutes restriction — and I want in.

Embiid returned from a month-long hiatus on Tuesday against the Dallas Mavericks and dropped 29 points in 36 minutes.

He shot 12-of-23 from the field and left some points on the table by going 4-of-9 from the charity stripe.

This should be a cinch if we get that type of run and volume from Embiid tonight.

Embiid averaged 33+ points in each of the previous two seasons.
He’s scored 27+ points in 8/10 games this season when playing over 30 minutes (6-4 vs. this line).

The Detroit Pistons, Friday’s opponent, give up the ninth-most PPG to opposing centres.

Paul over 6.5 assists (-129): This line seems way too low. Sure, De’Aaron Fox is on the San Antonio Spurs now, but it looks like Paul is still running point.

The veteran played 30 minutes on Wednesday with Fox in the lineup and logged nine helpers against the Atlanta Hawks.

He’s gone over this line in eight straight games and 37 of 48 games on the season.

If anything, Fox is just another elite scorer for Paul to feed.

Picks made at 8:57 a.m. ET on 02/07/2025.

UFC 312 predictions and best bet: Expect a finish in Du Plessis vs. Strickland

Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland meet for a second time, again with the middleweight belt on the line.

The pre-fight narrative: Du Plessis won the first meeting via split decision at UFC 297 in Toronto just over a year ago. I expect fireworks in the main event and am betting on a finish at plus money. In the prelims, back Colby Thicknesse to make his UFC debut in style.

Check out my UFC 312 predictions for the Feb. 8 event in Sydney, Australia.

UFC 312 predictions overview

UFC 312 predictions	Odds
Du Plessis vs. Strickland to not go the distance	+130
Colby Thicknesse to win	+300

UFC picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 02/06/25.

Go to full UFC 312 betting markets.

UFC 312 predictions

Best Bet: Du Plessis vs. Strickland to not go the distance (+130)

Torontonians were treated to a show when Du Plessis and Strickland first touched gloves.

Five closely contested rounds resulted in Du Plessis winning by a split decision, ending the South African’s three-fight finish streak.

I doubt Du Plessis cared, though, as he ascended the middleweight division for the first time. He also was somewhat lucky to get to the judge’s table after absorbing a whopping 157 significant strikes to the head, per UFC.com.

Strickland lacks elite finishing power but certainly gets his licks in. There’s an off-chance the American can finish Du Plessis, whose last loss was via KO way back in 2018.

But I’m more keyed on Du Plessis winning via finish. You can bet on that at +190 but I’ll opt for a little more safety by taking the fight to not go the distance.

The South African is on a 10-fight win streak and eight of those have come via finish (five KOs, three submissions). He most recently submitted MMA legend Israel Adesanya with a neck crank at UFC 305.

Strickland’s takedown defence was shaky in the first meeting — Du Plessis landed six on him at UFC 297 — and I’m bullish on Du Plessis’ submission game.

This seems like a good spot for the champion to make a statement.

Key stat: Du Plessis has fought 24 times and only two of those fights have gone to decision.

Quick pick

Thicknesse to win (+300): Ilia Topuria, the current UFC featherweight champion, put his family’s name on the map with a pristine 16-0 record.

Now his older brother, Aleksandre, is in the promotion and looking for blood.

“The El Conquistador” owns a 5-1 MMA record and has won three straight fights via first-round finish. So why am I fading him?

Well, Aleksandre has only fought three times since 2015 and I feel his odds are largely hype-driven.

His opponent, Thicknesse, is a perfect 7-0 with an exceptional ground game. The Australian went 3-0 in 2024 and won his last two fights via first-round finish (ground and pound, rear-naked choke).

He’s in form, is fighting at home, and is teammates with Alexander Volkanovski.

There isn’t a ton of tape on either of these guys, so I’ll take the plunge with Thicknesse at monster +295 odds.

UFC 312 predictions and best bet: Expect a finish in Du Plessis vs. Strickland

Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland meet for a second time, again with the middleweight belt on the line.

The pre-fight narrative: Du Plessis won the first meeting via split decision at UFC 297 in Toronto just over a year ago. I expect fireworks in the main event and am betting on a finish at plus money. In the prelims, back Colby Thicknesse to make his UFC debut in style.

Check out my UFC 312 predictions for the Feb. 8 event in Sydney, Australia.

UFC 312 predictions overview

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

UFC 312 predictions	Odds	Bet now ⬇️
Du Plessis vs. Strickland to not go the distance	+133	Add to betslip
Colby Thicknesse to win	+295	Add to betslip

UFC picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 02/06/25.

Go to full UFC 312 betting markets.

UFC 312 predictions

Best Bet: Du Plessis vs. Strickland to not go the distance (+133)

Torontonians were treated to a show when Du Plessis and Strickland first touched gloves.

Five closely contested rounds resulted in Du Plessis winning by a split decision, ending the South African’s three-fight finish streak.

I doubt Du Plessis cared, though, as he ascended the middleweight division for the first time. He also was somewhat lucky to get to the judge’s table after absorbing a whopping 157 significant strikes to the head, per UFC.com.

Strickland lacks elite finishing power but certainly gets his licks in. There’s an off-chance the American can finish Du Plessis, whose last loss was via KO way back in 2018.

But I’m more keyed on Du Plessis winning via finish. You can bet on that at +205 but I’ll opt for a little more safety by taking the fight to not go the distance.

The South African is on a 10-fight win streak and eight of those have come via finish (five KOs, three submissions). He most recently submitted MMA legend Israel Adesanya with a neck crank at UFC 305.

Strickland’s takedown defence was shaky in the first meeting — Du Plessis landed six on him at UFC 297 — and I’m bullish on Du Plessis’ submission game.

This seems like a good spot for the champion to make a statement.

Key stat: Du Plessis has fought 24 times and only two of those fights have gone to decision.

Quick pick

Thicknesse to win (+295): Ilia Topuria, the current UFC featherweight champion, put his family’s name on the map with a pristine 16-0 record.

Now his older brother, Aleksandre, is in the promotion and looking for blood.

“The El Conquistador” owns a 5-1 MMA record and has won three straight fights via first-round finish. So why am I fading him?

Well, Aleksandre has only fought three times since 2015 and I feel his odds are largely hype-driven.

His opponent, Thicknesse, is a perfect 7-0 with an exceptional ground game. The Australian went 3-0 in 2024 and won his last two fights via first-round finish (ground and pound, rear-naked choke).

He’s in form, is fighting at home, and is teammates with Alexander Volkanovski.

There isn’t a ton of tape on either of these guys, so I’ll take the plunge with Thicknesse at monster +295 odds.

Maple Leafs props vs. Kraken Feb. 6: Back Matthews, Knies to perform on Thursday

The Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Seattle Kraken on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto rolled through the prairies with a pair of wins against the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. I expect the Leafs’ offence to stay hot behind Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Kraken for Feb. 6.

Maple Leafs props vs. Kraken

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Matthews anytime goalscorer (+100)

Matthews is scoreless in his last four but I can’t see that going on for much longer.

Toronto’s captain had 17 shots in those games and was dominant against the Flames and Oilers. He racked up five assists against his Canadian rivals while generating 1.52 expected goals, the most of any Leaf, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Before his little dry spell, Matthews had scored in five straight games and eight of his last 10.

With Mitch Marner possibly returning, I love the value of this bet. But even if Marner takes another game to recover, this seems like a good price.

The Kraken are a mess defensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in several key defensive metrics:

30th in chances/60 (63.47)
26th in high-danger chances/60 (11.6)
24th in goals/60 (3.16)

Seattle has lost four of its last five games while giving up a total of 20 goals. I expect Matthews to take advantage of a spiralling squad.

Key stat: Matthews has the NHL’s highest goals-per-game average since the start of last season (0.66).

Quick pick

Knies to record a point (-134): I’m going to keep making this bet as long as it’s around this price.

Knies has been a wrecking ball all season and is on a tear over his last five games. He has four goals and eight points in that span, cashing this bet four times.

Skating alongside Matthews (and potentially Marner) is a boon, but Knies is also receiving top power-play time.

He’s recorded a power-play point in three of his last four and goes up against a Kraken team with the 22nd-ranked penalty kill (79.19%).

Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 02/06/2025.

Maple Leafs props vs. Kraken Feb. 6: Back Matthews, Knies to perform on Thursday

The Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Seattle Kraken on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto rolled through the prairies with a pair of wins against the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. I expect the Leafs’ offence to stay hot behind Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies.

Check out my Maple Leafs props vs. Kraken for Feb. 6.

Maple Leafs props vs. Kraken

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best bet: Matthews anytime goalscorer (-114)

Embed: #108760

Matthews is scoreless in his last four but I can’t see that going on for much longer.

Toronto’s captain had 17 shots in those games and was dominant against the Flames and Oilers. He racked up five assists against his Canadian rivals while generating 1.52 expected goals, the most of any Leaf, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Before his little dry spell, Matthews had scored in five straight games and eight of his last 10.

With Mitch Marner possibly returning, I love the value of this bet. But even if Marner takes another game to recover, this seems like a good price.

The Kraken are a mess defensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in several key defensive metrics:

30th in chances/60 (63.47)
26th in high-danger chances/60 (11.6)
24th in goals/60 (3.16)

Seattle has lost four of its last five games while giving up a total of 20 goals. I expect Matthews to take advantage of a spiralling squad.

Key stat: Matthews has the NHL’s highest goals-per-game average since the start of last season (0.66).

Quick pick

Knies to record a point (-130): I’m going to keep making this bet as long as it’s around this price.

Knies has been a wrecking ball all season and is on a tear over his last five games. He has four goals and eight points in that span, cashing this bet four times.

Skating alongside Matthews (and potentially Marner) is a boon, but Knies is also receiving top power-play time.

He’s recorded a power-play point in three of his last four and goes up against a Kraken team with the 22nd-ranked penalty kill (79.19%).

Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 02/06/2025.

Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks Feb. 6: Bet on Reaves and Green on Thursday

The Los Angeles Lakers look to stay hot when they host a desperate Golden State Warriors team on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: The Western Conference arms race is heating up. L.A. added Mark Williams days after acquiring Luka Doncic, while Golden State picked up Jimmy Butler. None of those players are expected to play tonight, though, so I’m looking to Austin Reaves and Draymond Green.

Check out my Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks for Feb. 6.

Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Reaves over 11.5 rebounds/assists (-130)

You can tell how much Los Angeles loves Reaves because he’s still on the roster.

Anthony Davis, Dalton Knecht and Cam Reddish had to pack their bags as the Lakers drastically reshaped their team in preparation for a deep playoff run. But their undrafted shooting guard isn’t going anywhere.

Reaves has had an amazing season, posting career highs in points (18.4), assists (6.2) and rebounds (4.3).

Taking the over on his 22.5-point total is enticing, but I believe there’s better value on him racking up the other two counting stats.

Reaves has posted 11+ rebounds/assists in six straight games (4-2 against this line).
He’s gone over this line in three straight games against the Warriors, playing 35+ minutes in each of those matchups.

Golden State allows the 10th-most assists and 16th-most rebounds per game to SGs, per Fantasy Pros, making this a slightly favourable matchup.

Key stat: Reaves is averaging 12.1 rebounds/assists since returning from injury on Dec. 13.

Quick pick

Green over 6.5 rebounds (+110): I don’t like paying this much juice but firmly believe it’s worth it here.

Green has zero scoring touch these days but is still an aggressive rebounder. And with Davis and Wiggins out of the lineup, he should have an opportunity to feast.

The veteran power forward has consistently cleared this line against L.A., even when AD was in the lineup.

Green has averaged 9.1 rebounds in his last 10 games against the Lakers (dating back to May 2023), clearing this line nine times. He had 10 boards against them in 34 minutes back on Dec. 25.

Picks made at 9:26 a.m. ET 02/06/2025.

Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks Feb. 6: Bet on Reaves and Green on Thursday

The Los Angeles Lakers look to stay hot when they host a desperate Golden State Warriors team on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: The Western Conference arms race is heating up. L.A. added Mark Williams days after acquiring Luka Doncic, while Golden State picked up Jimmy Butler. None of those players are expected to play tonight, though, so I’m looking to Austin Reaves and Draymond Green.

Check out my Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks for Feb. 6.

Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Reaves over 11.5 rebounds/assists (-134)

Embed: #108745

You can tell how much Los Angeles loves Reaves because he’s still on the roster.

Anthony Davis, Dalton Knecht and Cam Reddish had to pack their bags as the Lakers drastically reshaped their team in preparation for a deep playoff run. But their undrafted shooting guard isn’t going anywhere.

Reaves has had an amazing season, posting career highs in points (18.4), assists (6.2) and rebounds (4.3).

Taking the over on his 22.5-point total is enticing, but I believe there’s better value on him racking up the other two counting stats.

Reaves has posted 11+ rebounds/assists in six straight games (4-2 against this line).
He’s gone over this line in three straight games against the Warriors, playing 35+ minutes in each of those matchups.

Golden State allows the 10th-most assists and 16th-most rebounds per game to SGs, per Fantasy Pros, making this a slightly favourable matchup.

Key stat: Reaves is averaging 12.1 rebounds/assists since returning from injury on Dec. 13.

Quick pick

Green 6+ rebounds (-155): I don’t like paying this much juice but firmly believe it’s worth it here.

Green has zero scoring touch these days but is still an aggressive rebounder. And with Davis and Wiggins out of the lineup, he should have an opportunity to feast.

The veteran power forward has consistently cleared this line against L.A., even when AD was in the lineup.

Green has averaged 9.1 rebounds in his last 10 games against the Lakers (dating back to May 2023), clearing this line nine times. He had 10 boards against them in 34 minutes back on Dec. 25.

Picks made at 9:26 a.m. ET 02/06/2025.

Back Eagles on alternative spread in +370 Super Bowl SGP

I like the Philadelphia Eagles to cover an alternative spread against the Kansas City Chiefs in this +370 Super Bowl same-game parlay recommendation.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia, a slight underdog in the Big Game, has been lights out all year. I’ll tease the Birds up to a 7.5-point dog alongside three prop bets, two of which are on Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown.

Check out why you should back the Eagles on an alternative spread in this Super Bowl 59 SGP.

Super Bowl SGP: Eagles alternative spread

Parlay: Eagles +7.5 | Hurts anytime TD | Brown 50+ receiving yards | Mahomes 20+ rushing yards (+370)

Embed: #108421

Eagles +7.5 (-335): I’m bullish on the Eagles winning this game, so I naturally love their chances of keeping it within a score.

Philly has been the better team all season long, especially from an ATS standpoint:

Philadelphia: 13-7 ATS, +10.5 average margin of victory
Kansas City: 9-10 ATS, +3.7 average margin of victory

The Birds rank top six in offensive (sixth) and defensive (third) EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com. KC ranks ninth and 15th, respectively.

I’m not saying the Chiefs are frauds. Winning close games is a skill that Mahomes and Andy Reid have perfected.

But every big Chiefs game this year has tended to be close and I can’t picture a loaded Eagles roster rolling over on Sunday.

KC is 6-13 ATS versus a -7.5 spread.

Other parlay picks

Hurts anytime TD (-115): If I could only make one bet for the Super Bowl it would be for Hurts to score.

Philly’s quarterback logged a hat-trick of touchdowns in the NFC championship game, with two coming at the goal line and one on a nine-yard run.

It’s nice to know Hurts can break one loose for a score — he has a 15-plus yard rush in five of his last six games — but this is really about the tush push, which the Eagles have perfected.

Hurts turned 19 attempts within the five-yard line into 11 touchdowns during the regular season and has scored in two of three playoff games.

He has 33 total TDs over the last two seasons. KC’s defensive front is dominant, but Philly’s signature play is unstoppable.

Brown 50+ receiving yards (-167): Eagles fans were right to be anxious about Brown ahead of the NFC championship game.

After all, the superstar entered on a three-game stretch where he totalled just six catches for 60 yards.

But Brown quieted all concerns with a monster performance in a blowout victory:

6 catches
96 yards
1 touchdown

That was the Brown football fans were used to seeing and it’s the one I expect to see in the Super Bowl.

He’s averaged 81.1 yards per game across 53 regular season and playoff games with the Eagles. That includes a 96-yard performance against KC in the Super Bowl two years ago.

If he’s fully healthy, and it sure looks like he is, reaching this alternate total shouldn’t be an issue.

Mahomes Super Bowl SGP leg

Mahomes 20+ rushing yards (-167): When Mahomes wants to move, he can move. Just ask the Buffalo Bills.

The quarterback’s elusiveness was on full display in the AFC championship, turning 11 rushes into 43 yards and two scores.

He didn’t clear this line often in the regular season but averaged just 4.1 rushing attempts per game. That’s the lowest mark since his rookie season.

He’s cleared this line in all four Super Bowl appearances while averaging 43.0 rushing yards.

Philadelphia’s secondary is elite and Vic Fangio doesn’t like to blitz much (19.1% rate, 28th in the NFL), so I expect Mahomes to use his legs early and often.

Picks made at 2:35 p.m. ET on 02/03/2025.

WM Phoenix Open picks, predictions and odds: Back Scheffler, Taylor and Hoge

The biggest party on the PGA Tour schedule has arrived with the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler is an overwhelming favourite to win his third title in Phoenix. I say he does it, and I am also backing Nick Taylor and Tom Hoge to have strong weeks. The through line with these plays is that each player is an elite ball striker.

Check out our WM Phoenix Open picks for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on Feb. 6.

Phoenix Open picks

Embed: #108530

Go to full WM Phoenix Open betting markets .

Best bet: Scheffler to win (+280)

Scheffler made his first start of the season last week after suffering a freak hand injury on Christmas Day.

He didn’t look too rusty, though, leading the field in strokes gained: approach (+1.730) en route to a T9 finish at Pebble Beach.

This is a steep price to play for an outright winner, given that it’s a full-field event with 120 players.

But Scheffler isn’t your average player. He’s the best golfer on the planet and is coming off a nine-win season with six additional top-five finishes.

One of those was a T3 finish at the Phoenix Open, where he finished three shots behind the eventual winner, Taylor.

That was also before Scheffler made a change to a mallet putter, which spurred his legendary run.

With a week of action under his belt, I think Scheffler will get his first of many wins in 2025.

Key stat: Scheffler won this event in 2023 and 2022 and unsurprisingly laps the field in average strokes gained (+3.15), according to DataGolf.

Quick picks

Hoge top-30 finish (+138): I don’t want to make any other outright bets since I’m in on Scheffler at +280. Instead, I’ll dial in on the top 30 market for two players.

Let’s start with Hoge.

The 35-year-old has cashed this wager in three of four starts this year, thanks to elite iron play. He’s currently ninth in SG: APP (+1.110) after finishing fourth in that category last year behind only Corey Conners, Tony Finau, and Scheffler.

Hoge is also putting well, which is great to see. He has three top-30 finishes in his last five starts in Phoenix.

Taylor top-30 finish (+140): Taylor won this event last year, finished runner-up to Scheffler in 2022, and already has a win under his belt in 2025 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

With that said, this seems like a smash play.

The Canadian is striping the ball right now, ranking eighth in SG: APP (+1.111). Taylor has typically been a strong iron player, with his Achilles heel usually being the flat stick.

But he’s picked up strokes putting in three straight events, so I’m not too worried about that.

Look for the good vibes to continue in the desert.

Golf picks made at 1:46 p.m. on 02/04/2025.

Celtics vs. Cavaliers picks Feb. 4: Back Cleveland to win, Mobley to have a big night

The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Boston Celtics in an Eastern Conference heavyweight showdown.

The pregame narrative: Boston got the best of Cleveland in the playoffs last year but the latter has been the NBA’s pacecar through the end of January. Bet on the Cavs to win and Evan Mobley to stuff the stat sheet on Tuesday.

Check out my Celtics vs. Cavaliers picks for Feb. 4.

Celtics vs. Cavaliers picks

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Best bet: Cavaliers moneyline (-112)

Boston’s title run last year was a no-doubter.

The Celtics won 64 regular-season games — 14 more than any other Eastern Conference team — en route to a stress-free championship.

But things haven’t gone as smoothly this season, even with all of the same peices in place. The Celtics are 35-15 and have been a disasterous team to back against the spread:

Boston is 19-30-1 ATS. As underdogs, the Celtics are 0-2 ATS and SU, losing those games by an average of 8.5 points.
Cleveland, meanwhile, is a league-best 33-16-0 ATS and has already beaten Boston as a home favourite on Dec. 1 (115-111).

The Celtics are still a great team, but the championship hangover is palatable. They’re on a three-game win streak against bottom-feeders (Bulls, Pelicans, 76ers), and before that, they had lost five of 10 — including a blowout loss against the Raptors in Toronto.

Cleveland has put up 125-plus points in five of its last seven and will be rearing to make a statement agianst the team which bounced it from the playoffs last year.

Key stat: Cleveland is 24-3 at home this season with a +13.4 net rating (second-best in the NBA).

Quick picks

Mobley over 25.5 points and rebounds (-118): Mobley is having the best scoring season of his career and I expect him to be a force on Tuesday.

The power forward is posting career highs in the following categories:

Points per game (18.3)
3PT% (39.8)
FTA (4.0)

Adding a 3-point stroke and getting to the line has made Mobley a more dynamic scorer. He’s always been a solid rebounder, though, averaging at least 9.0 rebounds over the last three seasons.

Boston allows the eighth-most rebounds per game to power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Mobley is averaging 29.4 points and rebounds and has gone over this line in 27 of 43 starts (62.7%). That includes a 22-point, 11-rebound game against the Celtics in Boston on Nov. 19.

Picks made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 02/04/2025.