I like the Philadelphia Eagles to cover an alternative spread against the Kansas City Chiefs in this +370 Super Bowl same-game parlay recommendation.
The pregame narrative: Philadelphia, a slight underdog in the Big Game, has been lights out all year. I’ll tease the Birds up to a 7.5-point dog alongside three prop bets, two of which are on Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown.
Check out why you should back the Eagles on an alternative spread in this Super Bowl 59 SGP.
Super Bowl SGP: Eagles alternative spread
- Full Super Bowl Markets
- Super Bowl 59 Injury Report
- Kansas City Chiefs Team Stats
- Philadelphia Eagles Team Stats
Parlay: Eagles +7.5 | Hurts anytime TD | Brown 50+ receiving yards | Mahomes 20+ rushing yards (+370)
Eagles +7.5 (-335): I’m bullish on the Eagles winning this game, so I naturally love their chances of keeping it within a score.
Philly has been the better team all season long, especially from an ATS standpoint:
- Philadelphia: 13-7 ATS, +10.5 average margin of victory
- Kansas City: 9-10 ATS, +3.7 average margin of victory
The Birds rank top six in offensive (sixth) and defensive (third) EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com. KC ranks ninth and 15th, respectively.
I’m not saying the Chiefs are frauds. Winning close games is a skill that Mahomes and Andy Reid have perfected.
But every big Chiefs game this year has tended to be close and I can’t picture a loaded Eagles roster rolling over on Sunday.
KC is 6-13 ATS versus a -7.5 spread.
Other parlay picks
Hurts anytime TD (-115): If I could only make one bet for the Super Bowl it would be for Hurts to score.
Philly’s quarterback logged a hat-trick of touchdowns in the NFC championship game, with two coming at the goal line and one on a nine-yard run.
It’s nice to know Hurts can break one loose for a score — he has a 15-plus yard rush in five of his last six games — but this is really about the tush push, which the Eagles have perfected.
Hurts turned 19 attempts within the five-yard line into 11 touchdowns during the regular season and has scored in two of three playoff games.
He has 33 total TDs over the last two seasons. KC’s defensive front is dominant, but Philly’s signature play is unstoppable.
Brown 50+ receiving yards (-167): Eagles fans were right to be anxious about Brown ahead of the NFC championship game.
After all, the superstar entered on a three-game stretch where he totalled just six catches for 60 yards.
But Brown quieted all concerns with a monster performance in a blowout victory:
- 6 catches
- 96 yards
- 1 touchdown
That was the Brown football fans were used to seeing and it’s the one I expect to see in the Super Bowl.
He’s averaged 81.1 yards per game across 53 regular season and playoff games with the Eagles. That includes a 96-yard performance against KC in the Super Bowl two years ago.
If he’s fully healthy, and it sure looks like he is, reaching this alternate total shouldn’t be an issue.
Mahomes Super Bowl SGP leg
Mahomes 20+ rushing yards (-167): When Mahomes wants to move, he can move. Just ask the Buffalo Bills.
The quarterback’s elusiveness was on full display in the AFC championship, turning 11 rushes into 43 yards and two scores.
He didn’t clear this line often in the regular season but averaged just 4.1 rushing attempts per game. That’s the lowest mark since his rookie season.
He’s cleared this line in all four Super Bowl appearances while averaging 43.0 rushing yards.
Philadelphia’s secondary is elite and Vic Fangio doesn’t like to blitz much (19.1% rate, 28th in the NFL), so I expect Mahomes to use his legs early and often.
Picks made at 2:35 p.m. ET on 02/03/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.