Avery Perri

The Golden State Warriors host the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Utah is awful and is on a back-to-back, but Golden State is far from a title contender. I’ll bank a boatload of points with the visitors alongside prop bets on Andrew Wiggins and Lauri Markkanen.

Check out my Jazz vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 28.

Jazz vs. Warriors predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #107677

Parlay: Jazz +16.5 + Wiggins over 19.5 points + Markkanen over 5.5 rebounds (+340)

Jazz +16.5 (-200): Utah (10-34) has lost nine of its last 10 games and sits at the bottom of the Western Conference with its eyes set on the draft.

That said, the Jazz have been a respectable ATS team while the Warriors have not:

• Utah: 23-21-1 ATS, 15-10-0 ATS as a road underdog
• Golden State: 21-23-1 ATS, 7-10-0 ATS as home favourite

I’ll even go as far as to say Golden State isn’t a good team at all. Steph Curry was beside himself when told the Warriors are 1-20 when trailing after the third quarter. That’s an ugly stat.

The Warriors have lost seven of their last 11 games, failing to cover this number in 10 of those contests. Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga are both out, too, which leaves two big holes to fill.

Other SGP legs

Wiggins over 19.5 points (+104): Curry is the only player on the Warriors averaging more than 20 points per game, with Wiggins (17.1) and Kuminga (16.8) next on the list.

That said, this should be a good spot for Wiggins to have a night.

Utah has the league’s worst mid-range defence, according to Cleaning the Glass. Wiggins takes 34% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 81st percentile of all NBA players.

Kuminga takes even more shots from the mid-range (40.0%), and I figure his absence should lead to more looks for the Canadian small forward.

Wiggins has scored 20-plus points in five of his last seven games.

Markkanen over 5.5 rebounds (-177): At seven feet, 240 pounds, Markkanen isn’t as dominant a rebounder as he should be.

The Finnish forward is averaging 6.1 boards per game, which is down considerably from the 8.2 he posted last season.

However, I think he’s still worth backing on this teased-down line.

Markkanen has cleared this mark in three straight games and Golden State is missing two of its top-four rebounders.

He also had eight rebounds against the Warriors earlier this year.

Picks made at 9:57 a.m. on 01/28/25.

Anthony Edwards and RJ Barrett headline Monday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Edwards is a 3-point assassin and gets a prime matchup tonight. Barrett, meanwhile, should stuff the stat sheet for the red-hot Toronto Raptors. I’m also fading Giannis Antetokounmpo against the Utah Jazz.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 27.

Best NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #107566

Best bet: Edwards over 3.5 threes (-103)

This price seems too good to be true.

Edwards has been lights out to start the new year, averaging 30.2 PPG buoyed by elite perimeter shooting:

• 4.5 threes on 9.9 attempts per game (45.0%)
• 3+ threes in 10/13 games
• 4+ threes in 8/13 games

When looking to back a player on a 3-point market I want to see either accuracy or volume — Edwards has both.

He’s gone under this mark in three straight games but played the Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves (and still hit three 3s twice).

Minnesota (fourth) and Denver (ninth) sit inside the top 10 for opponent 3-point percentage while Dallas is a respectable 16th.

The Atlanta Hawks, Monday’s opponents, allow the most 3s per game (14.7) at the second-highest rate (37.7%).

Edwards went 1-for-7 from deep against the Hawks earlier this year but that was in his worst scoring stretch of the season. Now, he’s on fire and should have ample opportunities to fill the basket.

Key stat: Edwards has 4+ threes in 30/45 games this season (66.6%).

Quick picks

Barrett over 11.5 rebounds/assists (-137): Can we get a vibe check with Raptors fans? Toronto has won three straight and five of its last six, putting a serious wrench in its Cooper Flagg plans.

Talk about getting hot at the wrong time. I digress. Barrett has been stuffing the stat sheet and I want in.

• The shooting guard is averaging 6.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists since returning from injury on Jan. 6.
  
• Barrett has 9+ rebounds and assists in 8/10 games, clearing this line four times.

He’s fallen under this line more often than not but I’m intrigued by his floor. And tonight he gets to play the New Orleans Pelicans, who have gotten torched by shooting guards.

New Orleans is giving up the second most rebounds and assists to SGs per game, per Fantasy Pros.

Antetokounmpo under 12.5 rebounds (-124): Fading a guy like Giannis is never fun but this is a pretty good spot to do it.

The Jazz own the third-best rebounding rate in the NBA (51.8%) while giving up the fourth-fewest boards per game (50.4).

Giannis has recorded double-digit rebounds in 16 straight games, so this will be a sweat. However, he is 3-3 against this line in his last six and with a tough matchup on deck, I’ll take the under on a gaudy total.

Also, the Milwaukee Bucks are 9-point favourites as of Monday morning so there is clear blowout potential in this one.

Picks made at 10:18 a.m. ET on 01/27/2025.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors battle in the Bay Area on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles is rolling and I’ll back it to win against a Golden State team that’s the definition of mediocre. Prop bets on Austin Reaves and Steph Curry round out this +295 wager.

Check out my Lakers vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 25.

Lakers vs. Warriors predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #107473

Parlay: Lakers moneyline + Reaves Curry over 3.5 threes (+335)

Lakers -2.5 (+107): A month ago Curry said “We’re very mid right now” and I have to agree.

Golden State is 22-22 and sits 19th in offensive rating. Not good, not bad, just rudderless. That’s what happens when you have one aging star surrounded by a bunch of mediocre role players.

You could have said the same thing about Los Angeles earlier this season but I’m liking what I’m seeing from the Lakers lately.

L.A. is 4-1 in its last five games and just dismantled the reigning champion Boston Celtics, 117-96 on Thursday. Golden State, meanwhile, lost to the same Celtics team by 40 points a few days earlier.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis are humming and it seems like the D’Angelo Russell trade was classic addition by subtraction.

The Lakers beat the Warriors on Christmas Day with Davis leaving seven minutes in due to injury. With The Brow listed as probable, I think they roll tonight.

Other SGP legs

Reaves over 24.5 PRA (-275): LeBron and AD are bonafide superstars but Reaves isn’t that far off.

L.A.’s shooting guard has been lights out since his return from injury on Dec. 13:

• 20.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 7.3 APG
• 25+ PRA in 15/18 games games

He’s cleared this line on points alone five times during that stretch, including four games ago when he dropped 38 on the Brooklyn Nets.

With a ceiling like that, I love Reaves’ PRA total on most nights. And this Warriors team allows the 13th-most points and rebounds per game to SGs.

Curry over 3.5 threes (-265): Curry is having his worst scoring season in over a decade, putting up 22.6 a night.

That said, his 3-point volume and efficiency are still elite.

• Curry is averaging 4.3 makes on 10.6 attempts per night (40.7%).
  
• He’s cleared this total in 8/10 games this month.

The Lakers rank 18th in 3-point defence (36.3%) and Curry hit a whopping eight 3s against them on Christmas Day.

He’s cleared this in five of his last six games against L.A.

Picks made at 11:11 a.m. on 01/25/25.

I’ve got three prop bets from Saturday’s massive 14-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic has somehow gotten better this season and I like him to do damage from 3-point land against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Elsewhere, back Jalen Brunson and fade Dyson Daniels.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 25.

Best NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #107462

Best bet: Brunson over 26.5 points (-118)

Brunson is primed to torch the Sacramento Kings at MSG.

The point guard was just named as a starter in this year’s all-star game and it’s not hard to see why. Brunson is averaging 26.0 PPG (ninth-most in the NBA) and has been on a tear over the last 15 games:

• 28.5 PPG
• 48.3 FG%
• 30+ points six times

He’s coming off an underwhelming 17-point game against the Brooklyn Nets but scored 30-plus points in four of the five games prior.

I expect him to rebound against a Sacramento team which can’t defend the mid-range.

• The Kings allow opponents to shoot 44.6% from that area of the court, which ranks 26th in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.
  
• Brunson takes 50% of his shots in the mid-range, which is in the 95th percentile of all NBA players.

Brunson dropped 35 and 42 points in his last two games against the Kings.

Key stat: Brunson is averaging 31.7 PPG in his last six games.

Quick picks

Daniels under 15.5 points (-105): Daniels just dropped 22 points on the Raptors, who he’ll play again tonight, but I think he’s worth a fade.

Simply put, this number is too high. The rookie is having the best scoring month of his career (14.6 PPG) and is still falling under this mark more often than not (5-6 vs. a 15.5-point total).

Daniels rarely attempts threes and that’s the weakest area of the Raptors’ defence.

The guard is an active mid-range shooter though (35% of shots, 78th percentile) and Toronto owns the 12th-best mid-range defence.

I can’t see Daniels going off against the Raps again.

Jokic over 1.5 threes (+112): I don’t care how good Minnesota’s perimeter defence is — if Jokic is plus-money to can multiple threes, I’m on board.

The Serbian superstar is having a career season, which says something considering his resume. The three-time MVP is averaging 30.2 points, 13.4 rebounds, 10.1 assists and has been lights out from deep:

• Jokic is shooting 47.9% from beyond the arc, 8.3 points better than his previous high in 2017-18.
  
• He’s hit 2+ threes in 24/38 starts (63.1%).

Jokic has cleared this mark in back-to-back games and went 2-of-3 from deep against the Timberwolves earlier this season. Ideally, I’d like to see a little more volume than that tonight.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 01/25/2025.