Staff Writer

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Panthers March 13: Bet on John Tavares and Carter Verhaeghe

Scotiabank Arena will have playoff-like atmosphere on Thursday when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Florida Panthers.

The pregame narrative: Two points separate Florida from Toronto atop the Atlantic Division standings, and the Maple Leafs have a game in hand. I expect John Tavares to notch a point for the home team and Carter Verhaeghe to clear his shot total for the visitors.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Panthers for March 13.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Panthers

Best Bet: Tavares to score 1+ points (-148)

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Mitch Marner has dominated the airwaves with contract talks swirling, but Tavares is also set to be a free agent this offseason and has set himself up for a nice payday should he choose to leave the Maple Leafs.

The veteran centre has 26 goals and 55 points in 57 games and has been red hot coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off break:

9 games
5 goals
6 assists
Points in 7 of 9 games

Tavares is on Toronto’s second line with William Nylander — who is scoring at a career-high rate — and Calle Jarnkrok. That means he won’t get matched against Florida’s shutdown line featuring Aleksander Barkov.

He’s also on the Leafs’ top power-play unit, which has been on fire lately.

Toronto’s PP is connecting at a 32.1% clip since the break (sixth-best in NHL). Tavares has five points on the man advantage in that span.

Florida is a great defensive team and Sergei Bobrovsky is in a groove but I like this price on a proven point producer.

Key stat: Tavares has a point in four of his last six games.

Quick pick

Verhaeghe over 2.5 shots (-130): Maple Leafs fans have to be a bit worried with the team’s defensive form right now.

Check out how Toronto has ranked defensively on a 60-minute basis since the league returned to action on Feb. 22, per Natural Stat Trick:

31st in chances (66.79)
26th in shots (30.37)

Strong goaltending has papered over those issues, which is why I would rather back Verhaeghe to clear his shot total than record a point (-118).

The winger only has one point in his last five games but has cleared this total three times while averaging 3.4 shots per game.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers prop picks made at 9:17 a.m. ET 03/13/2025.

76ers vs. Raptors SGP predictions March 12: Bet on Jamal Shead and Quentin Grimes at +350

Two tanking teams meet at Scotiabank Arena tonight when the Toronto Raptors host the Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Most of the stars are sidelined and both GMs will be rooting for a loss in the press box. But there’s still value to be had in this dumpster-fire of a contest, and I’ve built out a three-leg wager featuring Quentin Grimes and Jamal Shead.

Check out my 76ers vs. Raptors SGP predictions for March 12.

76ers vs. Raptors predictions

Parlay: Sixers +9.5 | Grimes 20+ points | Shead 2+ threes (+350)

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Sixers +9.5 (-286): Here is a list of players out on Wednesday:

RJ Barrett
Immanuel Quickley
Gradey Dick
Jakobe Walter
Joel Embiid
Tyrese Maxey
Paul George

I don’t feel confident backing either team to win with their worst foot forward but do like banking a boatload of points with the road team.

Darko Rajakovic has made a point of resting his starters down the stretch and I don’t expect Jakob Poeltl or Scottie Barnes — who might miss the game with a finger injury — to get meaningful minutes in crunch time.

Toronto has only covered a -9.5 spread twice in its last 18 games and one of those contests was against the bottom-feeding Washington Wizards.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has covered this line in 15 of its last 20, including once against Toronto.

NBA SGP legs

Grimes 20+ points (-107): Grimes isn’t a household name by any stretch but he’s quietly become a productive player with the 76ers.

The 24-year-old was acquired at the deadline for Caleb Martin and is averaging 20.4 points since he entered the starting lineup on Feb. 12.

And this month, we’ve seen that Grimes can explode as a scorer:

44 points vs. Warriors
35 points vs. Hawks
30 points vs. Timberwolves
25 points vs. Jazz

Grimes took a career-high 25 shots his last time out vs. Atlanta and should breeze by this total if his volume is remotely similar. And with all of Philadelphia’s injuries, it should be.

Shead 2+ threes (-114): This should be a good spot for Shead to show us what he’s made of.

The 2024 second-round pick hasn’t been asked to do much this year but is now thrust into a starting role, and has a great matchup.

Philadelphia has the third-worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.1%) and gives up the most 3s per game to opposing point guards (3.53), per Fantasy Pros.

Shead has canned at least one triple in 14 of 18 games where he’s played 20-plus minutes. He should be looking to attack Philly from beyond the arc tonight.

76ers vs. Raptors predictions made at 2:30 p.m. ET on 03/12/2025.

How to bet on March Madness: Brackets, spreads, parlays and more

March Madness is arguably the craziest sporting event of the year, and it’s a cornerstone of a bustling spring sports calendar. A pool of 68 college basketball teams competes for one goal: A chance to survive a one-and-done tournament to be crowned as national champions.

The NCAA tourney is known for upsets, chaos, and drama. Every year, powerhouses and Cinderellas alike put their stamp on history.

-> New to NCAA Basketball wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Bets to get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.

There are a number of ways to bet on March Madness, and we’ll go through all possibilities to enhance your viewing experience.

How to bet on March Madness

Parity in the NCAA is reaching an all-time high. Over the past few years, we’ve seen 15-seed Saint Peter’s make the Elite Eight, 11-seed Loyola Chicago make the Final Four and two No. 1 seeds dethroned by 16-seeds (UMBC, Fairleigh Dickinson).

An NCAA-record 11 unique seeds qualified for the Sweet 16 in 2021. 2024’s tournament saw seven unique seeds make the final 16, showing that the tournament is always unpredictable.

Here are some tips for betting on March Madness.

-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets account to explore live odds and daily NCAA Basketball markets.

Moneyline

Moneyline betting and March Madness go hand-in-hand.

Brackets reign supreme in March, and they follow a win-or-go-home format. With that in mind, betting on the moneyline (often shortened to “ML”) is an effective way to tail your bracket picks.

When betting on the moneyline during the first two rounds, each team’s seeding typically correlates with their status as either the favourite or the underdog. For example:

No. 1 seed (-2,500): Wager $2,500 to win $100 (96.15% implied win probability)
No. 16 seed (+2,000): Wager $100 to win $2,000 (4.76% implied win probability)

No. 5 seed (-350): Wager $350 to win $100 (77.78% implied win probability)
No. 12 seed (+275): Wager $100 to win $275 (26.67% implied win probability)

No. 8 seed (-125): Wager $125 to win $100 (55.56% implied win probability)
No. 9 seed (+115): Wager $100 to win $125 (46.51% implied win probability)

Betting against a top-three-seeded team is particularly risky, as they don’t often lose in the first round.

-> Want to see current NCAA Basketball moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets

But there’s a reason we call it March Madness.

Remember, UMBC toppled No. 1 Virginia back in 2018. Just five years later, No. 1 Purdue lost to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson. So, there is some precedent here.

As for No. 4 vs. No. 13 matchups, the NCAA tournament has seen 30 upsets since expanding the field in 1985 — including six such upsets since 2018.

The notorious 12-seed is known to spoil some parties. Since 1985, 53 upsets have occurred in this category, with 12-seeds winning at a 34.9% clip. If that seems low, consider this: With four No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups each year, the average is more than one upset per tournament — two occurred in 2022.

The No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchups have similar data, but after that, the numbers round out more evenly (and the odds reflect that).

When the tournament progresses to later stages and oddsmakers develop a better feel for teams, the ML odds won’t necessarily reflect the seeding as much. In 2021, No. 1 Illinois was a -350 ML favourite over No. 9 Loyola Chicago (+250), but the Ramblers won, 71-58.

Against the spread

So we’ve talked upsets, but more often than not the higher seeds will prevail.

If a No. 1 seed sits at -2,000, they’re a pretty useless moneyline bet. While a 16-seed has an insanely high ROI potential, there’s very little chance of them winning outright.

Since 1985, the average margin of victory in No. 1 vs. 16 matchups has been around 24 points.

Let’s use that as a baseline for betting the spread, which is a way to get even odds on an uneven game.

If you noticed a one-seed was favoured by 30.5 points, it could be a good idea to bet the 16-seed based upon the historical 24-point average margin of victory. If a one-seed was favoured by 14.5, maybe that could be a smart bet as well.

Of course, it’s imperative to back up this decision with factors unique to the team in question. Injuries, current form and shooting percentage, among others, can all play an important role in your betting decisions.

Spread betting during the tournament is a safer way to operate than taking underdogs straight up, as you would when picking a bracket.

According to The Lines, from 2000 to 2021 the 5-versus-12 matchup produced a 54-34 straight-up record in favour of the lower seed. The 12-seed is 47-40-1 at covering the spread, however, meaning they have been the far better ATS option.

If you like an underdog at +360, you should love them against the spread at +9.5. Moneyline bets can be tantalizing due to their higher payouts, but spread betting often produces better results over time.

-> Ready to try spread betting? Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines daily

Totals

Totals betting during the NCAA tournament generally reflects the same principles one would follow during the regular season.

Analyze team injuries, trends, shooting percentage and foul tendencies to decide whether the game will go over or under the projected point total.

During March Madness, all games are played at neutral sites. Some teams have a tendency to score far more often at home than on the road — perhaps playing to the energy of a home crowd — but that won’t factor in here.

-> Compare totals across every NCAA Basketball matchup when you sign up for NorthStar Bets

How to bet March Madness outrights

Outright betting involves picking the winner of the entire tournament — no strings attached.

Heading into the tournament, each team will be assigned odds corresponding with their likelihood of winning the championship.

Since 1985, a one-seed has won the tournament 26 times and has accounted for 51% of all championship appearances.

In 2014, Shabazz Napier and the UConn Huskies won the title as a No. 7 seed. According to the Las Vegas Sun, they were +10,000 to win when the tournament began.

As the tournament progresses, odds will change. With each passing round, odds will shorten for the surviving teams no matter what seed they hold.

-> Want to see updated NCAA Basketball finals odds? Create your account at NorthStar Bets and access futures markets year-round

Parlays

If March Madness isn’t chaotic enough for you already, why not parlay a few games?

Parlaying means combining two or more events (legs) into one bet. All legs must win for the ticket to cash.

Could you take all 16 games played on the first day and throw them into a parlay? Sure, but that’s probably not the best way to do it.

-> Build your own NCAA Basketball same-game parlay when you join NorthStar Bets

Just for the sake of it, if you were to throw $1 on a 16-leg parlay, picking spreads at -110, the potential payout would exceed $30,000 — but the implied probability would be less than one-hundredth of a percent.

Parlaying is all about finding what you perceive to be very good value over multiple games and using that value to inflate your ticket.

If you really like a six-seed at -7.5 and a 10-seed at +6.5, you could move the lines to ensure more safety. For example, taking the six-seed on the ML and the 10-seed at +10.5 could equate to +130 odds.

-> Ready to put your NCAA Basketball knowledge to use ? Sign up for NorthStar Bets to access live odds, props, parlays and exclusive Canadian Insights all season long

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Best NHL anytime goalscorer picks March 12: Back Tage Thompson and Cole Caufield

Two studs from the Atlantic Division headline Wednesday’s NHL anytime goalscorer picks.

The pregame narrative: Tage Thompson and Cole Caufield were left off the American 4 Nations Face-Off team and have been on fire since. I’m tapping into their recent form by backing them in great matchups this evening.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for March 12.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Thompson to score a goal (+162)

Spite can be a powerful thing.

Thompson was perhaps the biggest “snub” on the American team heading into the 4 Nations Face-Off, and the U.S. could’ve used his scoring touch against Canada in the final.

Buffalo’s 6-foot-6 centre has scored 109 goals and counting over the last three seasons.

He has 33 in 57 games this year, good for a 47-goal pace over an 82-game season.

Thompson has been red-hot coming out of the break, with seven goals in nine games.

He scored twice in his last outing against the Edmonton Oilers on Monday and has found the net in four of his last five games.

Tonight, Thompson and the Buffalo Sabres go up against a Detroit Red Wings team with a serious goaltending problem.

Petr Mrazek was acquired at the trade deadline from the Chicago Blackhawks and makes his debut tonight.

Sure, he was playing on one of the worst teams in the NHL, but I can’t ignore his dreadful season-long numbers (NHL ranks in parenthesis):

3.46 GAA (52nd)
.890 save percentage (45th)

Maybe a change of scenery will help Mrazek right the ship — but I doubt it.

Key stat: Mrazek’s -14.4 goals saved above expected ranks 92nd out of 94 goalies, per Money Puck.

Quick picks

Caufield to score a goal (+145): Leaving Caufield off the American squad made a little more sense considering his size and position, but Montreal’s winger knows how to light the lamp.

He’s scored in six of eight games since the break and is up to a career-high 32 on the season.

Caufield’s line with Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky has a 60.71 GF% this season, according to Natural Stat Trick. That’s not eye-popping but is really solid considering where Montreal sits in the standings.

The Canadiens are on the road against the Seattle Kraken, who are likely starting Philipp Grubauer in net.

Grubauer is one of two goalies with a worse goals saved above expected (-15.5) than Mrazek.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 12:57 p.m. ET on 03/12/2025.

Best NHL anytime goalscorer picks March 12: Back Tage Thompson and Cole Caufield

Two studs from the Atlantic Division headline Wednesday’s NHL anytime goalscorer picks.

The pregame narrative: Tage Thompson and Cole Caufield were left off the American 4 Nations Face-Off team and have been on fire since. I’m tapping into their recent form by backing them in great matchups this evening.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for March 12.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Thompson to score a goal (+148)

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